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Who likes it hot? A global analysis of the climatic, ecological, and evolutionary determinants of warming tolerance in ants
Abstract
Effects of climate warming on wild populations of organisms are expected to be greatest at higher latitudes, paralleling greater anticipated increases in temperature in these regions. Yet, these expectations assume that populations in different regions are equally susceptible to the effects of warming. This is unlikely to be the case. Here, we develop a series of predictive models for physiological thermal tolerances in ants based on current and future climates. We found that tropical ants have lower warming tolerances, a metric of susceptibility to climate warming, than temperate ants despite greater increases in temperature at higher latitudes. Using climatic, ecological and phylogenetic data, we refine our predictions of which ants (across all regions) were most susceptible to climate warming. We found that ants occupying warmer and more mesic forested habitats at lower elevations are the most physiologically susceptible to deleterious effects of climate warming. Phylogenetic history was also a strong indicator of physiological susceptibility. In short, we find that ants that live in the canopies of hot, tropical forest are the most at risk, globally, from climate warming. Unfortunately this is where many, perhaps most, ant and other species on Earth live.
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“Fourth, our analyses are in keeping with predictions of Deutsch et al. (5) that tropical insects should be especially vulnerable to climate warming, adding to field and laboratory studies over the past several years that have consistently supported the predicted sensitivity (8, 48–53).”
From Climate-driven declines in arthropod abundance restructure a rainforest food web (2018) · cites this paper as [52]
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Cited by
Sorted by citations
Huey, R. B., Kearney, M., Krockenberger, A. K., Holtum, J. A. M., Jess, M., & Williams, S. E. (2012) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rstb.2012.0005 · Cited by 1,496
“These ectotherms may be additionally vulnerable because they have limited acclimatization capacities [72], low heat tolerance [68,78,184] and already live in environments that are warm relative to T o [6,47,68,123,185,186].”
BackgroundThermal-safety margins and the necessity of thermoregulatory behavior across latitude and elevation
Sunday, J. M., Bates, A. E., Kearney, M., Colwell, R. K., Dulvy, N. K., Longino, J. T., & Huey, R. B. (2014) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1316145111 · Cited by 1,296
“…analyses that predict large-scale patterns in the vulnerability of ectotherms to climate warming often invoke the concept of the “ thermal-safety margin ” (3 – 6), which measures the difference between a species ’ maximum tolerance to heat and the warm air temperatures it regularly experiences.”
InfluentialClimate-driven declines in arthropod abundance restructure a rainforest food web
Lister, B. C., & Garcia, A. (2018) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1722477115 · Cited by 730
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“Previous studies comparing upper thermal limits of species provided conflicting geographical differences in thermal safety margins, with some finding these to be smaller for species from tropical regions (10, 22, 23) and others finding species from temperate or dry environments to be closer to their thermal maxima (11…”
BackgroundHeat stress and the fitness consequences of climate change for terrestrial ectotherms
Kingsolver, J. G., Diamond, S. E., & Buckley, L. B. (2013) · Functional Ecology · doi:10.1111/1365-2435.12145 · Cited by 478
“Several other recent analyses support the negative impacts of climate change for tropical ectotherms (Huey et al. 2009; Sinervo et al. 2010; Diamond et al. 2012; Bonebrake & Deutsch 2012; Thomas et al. 2012).”
ResultSelf-citation
Metadata
- Authors
- Diamond, S. E., Sorger, D. M., Hulcr, J., Pelini, S. L., Toro, I. D., Hirsch, C., Oberg, E., & Dunn, R. R.
- Affiliations
- North Carolina State University (US)
- Department of Biology North Carolina State University Raleigh NC 27695‐7617 USA
- Harvard University (US)
- University of Massachusetts Amherst (US)
- Texas A&M University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Diamond, Sarah E.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Global Change Biology
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2011-10-09
- Volume
- 18
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 448-456
- ISSN
- 1354-1013 (ISSN-L)
- 1365-2486
- OpenAlex
- W2141603736
- Cited by
- 259
- References
- 52
- Citations by year
- 2026: 24 · 2025: 17 · 2024: 14 · 2023: 15 · 2022: 18 · 2021: 20 · 2020: 24 · 2019: 20 · 2018: 18 · 2017: 12 · 2016: 22 · 2015: 15 · 2014: 20 · 2013: 12 · 2012: 8
- FWCI
- 11.30
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Global Change Biology (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- U.S. Department of Energy
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Physiological and biochemical adaptations
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Insect Science › Insect and Arachnid Ecology and Behavior
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecological Modeling › Species Distribution and Climate Change
- Keywords
- ants, warming tolerance, heat tolerance, global warming, latitudinal gradient, tropical forest canopy, habitat moisture, altitude, phylogeny, climate change vulnerability
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