The DOI matches its Crossref record; 2 of the 2 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Why is the choice of future climate scenarios for species distribution modelling important?
Open accessAbstract
Species distribution models (SDMs) are common tools for assessing the potential impact of climate change on species ranges. Uncertainty in SDM output occurs due to differences among alternate models, species characteristics and scenarios of future climate. While considerable effort is being devoted to identifying and quantifying the first two sources of variation, a greater understanding of climate scenarios and how they affect SDM output is also needed. Climate models are complex tools: variability occurs among alternate simulations, and no single ‘best’ model exists. The selection of climate scenarios for impacts assessments should not be undertaken arbitrarily ‐ strengths and weakness of different climate models should be considered. In this paper, we provide bioclimatic modellers with an overview of emissions scenarios and climate models, discuss uncertainty surrounding projections of future climate and suggest steps that can be taken to reduce and communicate climate scenario‐related uncertainty in assessments of future species responses to climate change.
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Cites
Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants
Root, T. L., Price, J. T., Hall, K. R., Schneider, S. H., Rosenzweig, C., & Pounds, J. A. (2003) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature01333 · Cited by 4,774
Canadell, J. G., Le Quéré, C., Raupach, M. R., Field, C. B., Buitenhuis, E. T., Ciais, P., Conway, T. J., Gillett, N. P., Houghton, R. A., & Marland, G. (2007) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0702737104 · Cited by 2,136
Cited by
Global Pyrogeography: the Current and Future Distribution of Wildfire
Krawchuk, M. A., Moritz, M. A., Parisien, M.-A., Van Dorn, J., & Hayhoe, K. (2009) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0005102 · Cited by 1,000
Projected range contractions of montane biodiversity under global warming
La Sorte, F. A., & Jetz, W. (2010) · Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rspb.2010.0612 · Cited by 444
Substantial declines in urban tree habitat predicted under climate change
Burley, H., Beaumont, L. J., Ossola, A., Baumgartner, J. B., Gallagher, R., Laffan, S., Esperon-Rodriguez, M., Manea, A., & Leishman, M. R. (2019) · Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.05.287 · Cited by 90
Self-citationPaleodistribution modeling in archaeology and paleoanthropology
Franklin, J., Potts, A. J., Fisher, E. C., Cowling, R. M., & Marean, C. W. (2015) · Quaternary Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.12.015 · Cited by 71
Metadata
- Authors
- Beaumont, L. J., Hughes, L., & Pitman, A. J.
- Venue
- Ecology Letters
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2008-10-02
- Volume
- 11
- Issue
- 11
- Pages
- 1135-1146
- ISSN
- 1461-023X (ISSN-L)
- 1461-0248
- OpenAlex
- W2120471548
- Cited by
- 354
- References
- 2
- FWCI
- 9.10
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
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- Beaumont, L. J., Hughes, L., & Pitman, A. J. (2008). Why is the choice of future climate scenarios for species distribution modelling important? Ecology Letters. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2008.01231.x
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