Dynamics of Mara–Serengeti ungulates in relation to land use changes
Abstract
Animal population dynamics can be driven by changing climatic forcing, shifting habitat conditions, trophic interactions and anthropogenic influences. To understand these influences, we analyzed trends in populations of seven ungulate species counted during 15 years (1989–2003) of monthly monitoring using vehicle ground counts in the Maasai Mara National Reserve, Kenya. Abundance of six species declined markedly and persistently throughout the reserve during this period. The declines were contemporaneous with progressive habitat deterioration due to changing land use in pastoral ranches bordering the reserve, habitat desiccation due to rising temperatures, recurrent severe droughts and an exceptional ENSO flood in 1997–1998. The effect of progressive habitat deterioration was accentuated by illicit harvest, competition with livestock and elevated predation. After factoring out the influence of rainfall, ungulate populations declined more markedly in sections of the reserve experiencing greater livestock incursions and poaching. The declines were significantly correlated with increasing number of settlements and people in the pastoral ranches for five species. Heightened predation following a crash in the buffalo Syncerus caffer population during a severe drought in 1993 had little support as the primary cause of the declines.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The trend to push more livestock further into the CPA is probably in response to declines in palatable forage in the remaining communal village grazing lands.
“The trend to push more livestock further into the CPA is probably in response to declines in palatable forage in the remaining communal village grazing lands ( 30 , 33 ).”
From Cross-boundary human impacts compromise the Serengeti-Mara ecosystem (2019) · cites this paper as [30]
Cites
Model Selection and Multimodel Inference
(2003) · Technometrics · doi:10.1198/tech.2003.s146 · Cited by 5,505 · see citing works
Small sample inference for fixed effects from restricted maximum likelihood
Kenward, M. G., & Roger, J. H. (1997) · Biometrics · doi:10.2307/2533558 · Cited by 4,552 · see citing works
Linear Mixed Models for Longitudinal Data
Molenberghs, G., & Verbeke, G. N. (2000) · Springer series in statistics · doi:10.1007/978-1-4419-0300-6 · Cited by 2,681 · see citing works
Ruppert, D., WAND, M. P., & Carroll, R. J. (2003) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511755453 · Cited by 2,153 · see citing works
Generalized linear mixed models a pseudo-likelihood approach
Wolfinger, R. D., & O'Connell, M. (1993) · Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation · doi:10.1080/00949659308811554 · Cited by 1,257 · see citing works
Biomass and production of large African herbivores in relation to rainfall and primary production
Coe, M. J., Cumming, D. H. M., & Phillipson, J. (1976) · Oecologia · doi:10.1007/bf00345312 · Cited by 632 · see citing works
Conservation for the Twenty-First Century.
Miles, J., Western, D., & Pearl, M. C. (1990) · Journal of Applied Ecology · doi:10.2307/2404335 · Cited by 529 · see citing works
Dynamics of Tropical Communities
Newton, A. (1999) · Journal of Applied Ecology · doi:10.1046/j.1365-2664.1999.04464.x · Cited by 518 · see citing works
Serengeti II: Dynamics, management, and conservation of an ecosystem
Leader‐Williams, N. (1996) · Trends in Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1016/0169-5347(96)81103-7 · Cited by 503 · see citing works
Ogutu, J. O., & Owen‐Smith, N. (2003) · Ecology Letters · doi:10.1046/j.1461-0248.2003.00447.x · Cited by 271 · see citing works
Self-citationLand use conflict in Kajiado District, Kenya
Campbell, D. J., Gichohi, H., Mwangi, A., & Chege, L. W. (2000) · Land Use Policy · doi:10.1016/s0264-8377(00)00038-7 · Cited by 230 · see citing works
The patterns of rainfall in the Serengeti ecosystem, Tanzania
NORTON‐GRIFFITHS, M., HERLOCKER, D., & PENNYCUICK, L. (1975) · African Journal of Ecology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2028.1975.tb00144.x · Cited by 228 · see citing works
Ottichilo, W. K., de Leeuw, J., Skidmore, A. K., Prins, H. H. T., & Said, M. Y. (2000) · African Journal of Ecology · doi:10.1046/j.1365-2028.2000.00242.x · Cited by 185 · see citing works
Rainfall influences on ungulate population abundance in the Mara‐Serengeti ecosystem
Ogutu, J. O., Piepho, H., Dublin, H., Bhola, N., & Reid, R. S. (2008) · Journal of Animal Ecology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2656.2008.01392.x · Cited by 174 · see citing works
Self-citationSerneels, S., & Lambin, É. F. (2001) · Journal of Biogeography · doi:10.1046/j.1365-2699.2001.00557.x · Cited by 164 · see citing works
Kimani, K., & Pickard, J. (1998) · Geographical Journal · doi:10.2307/3060370 · Cited by 163 · see citing works
STONER, C. J., Caro, T., Mduma, S., Mlingwa, C., Sabuni, G., & Borner, M. (2007) · Conservation Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1523-1739.2007.00705.x · Cited by 153 · see citing works
Altered behaviour in spotted hyenas associated with increased human activity
Boydston, E., Kapheim, K., Watts, H. E., Szykman, M., & Holekamp, K. (2003) · Animal Conservation · doi:10.1017/s1367943003003263 · Cited by 147 · see citing works
MANIFOLD INTERACTIVE INFLUENCES ON THE POPULATION DYNAMICS OF A MULTISPECIES UNGULATE ASSEMBLAGE
Owen‐Smith, N., & Mills, M. G. L. (2006) · Ecological Monographs · doi:10.1890/04-1101 · Cited by 141 · see citing works
The relationship bewteen rainfall , lion predation and population trends in African herbivores.
Mills, M., Biggs, H., & Whyte, I. (1995) · Wildlife Research · doi:10.1071/wr9950075 · Cited by 125 · see citing works
Ogutu, J., Bhola, N., & Reid, R. (2005) · Journal of Zoology · doi:10.1017/s0952836904006302 · Cited by 121 · see citing works
Self-citationThe impact of game meat hunting on target and non-target species in the Serengeti
Hofer, H., Campbell, K. L. I., East, M. L., & Huish, S. A. (1996) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-94-009-1525-1_9 · Cited by 112 · see citing works
Owen‐Smith, N., & Mills, M. G. L. (2008) · Ecology · doi:10.1890/07-0970.1 · Cited by 112 · see citing works
Biodiversity and the Need for Habitat Renewal
SINCLAIR, A. R. E., Hik, D. S., Schmitz, O. J., Scudder, G. G. E., Turpin, D. H., & Larter, N. C. (1995) · Ecological Applications · doi:10.2307/1941968 · Cited by 98 · see citing works
Ottichilo, W. K., de Leeuw, J., & Prins, H. H. T. (2001) · Biological Conservation · doi:10.1016/s0006-3207(00)00090-2 · Cited by 93 · see citing works
Herbivore Dynamics in Southern Narok, Kenya
Stelfox, J. G., Peden, D. G., Epp, H., Hudson, R. J., Mbugua, S. W., Agatsiva, J. L., & Amuyunzu, C. L. (1986) · Journal of Wildlife Management · doi:10.2307/3801925 · Cited by 73 · see citing works
Does competition regulate ungulate populations? Further evidence from Serengeti, Tanzania
Dublin, H., SINCLAIR, A. R. E., Boutin, S. A., Anderson, E. C., Jago, M., & Arcese, P. (1990) · Oecologia · doi:10.1007/bf00323546 · Cited by 69 · see citing works
Self-citationWater quantity and quality as the factors driving the Serengeti ecosystem, Tanzania
Wolanski, E. J., & Gereta, E. (2001) · Hydrobiologia · doi:10.1023/a:1013125321838 · Cited by 63 · see citing works
MUKINYA, J. G. (1973) · African Journal of Ecology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2028.1973.tb00100.x · Cited by 59 · see citing works
Population biology of African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) at Hluhluwe-iMfolozi Park, South Africa
Jolles, A. E. (2007) · African Journal of Ecology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2028.2006.00726.x · Cited by 58 · see citing works
Canine distemper antibodies in lions of the Masai Mara
Kock, R. A., Chalmers, W. S. K., Mwanzia, J., et al. (1998) · Veterinary Record · doi:10.1136/vr.142.24.662 · Cited by 46 · see citing works
Land Use Economics in the Mara Area of the Serengeti Ecosystem
Norton-Griffiths, M., Said, M. Y., Serneels, S., et al. (2008) · University of Chicago Press eBooks · doi:10.7208/chicago/9780226760353.003.0013 · Cited by 41 · see citing works
Walpole, M. J., Morgan-Davies, M., Milledge, S. A. H., et al. (2001) · Biological Conservation · doi:10.1016/s0006-3207(00)00219-6 · Cited by 38 · see citing works
A simple mixed model for trend analysis in wildlife populations
Piepho, H., & Ogutu, J. O. (2002) · Journal of Agricultural Biological and Environmental Statistics · doi:10.1198/108571102366 · Cited by 35 · see citing works
Self-citationWater, Migration and the Serengeti Ecosystem
Wolanski, E. J., Gereta, E., Borner, M., & Mduma, S. (1999) · American Scientist · doi:10.1511/1999.6.526 · Cited by 35 · see citing works
First Wildlife Census of the Entire Serengeti-Mara Region, East Africa
Talbot, L. M., & Stewart, D. R. M. (1964) · Journal of Wildlife Management · doi:10.2307/3798799 · Cited by 35 · see citing works
Water, Migration and the Serengeti Ecosystem
Wolanski, E. J., Gereta, E., Borner, M., & Mduma, S. (1999) · American Scientist · doi:10.1511/1999.42.838 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
Gereta, E., Wolanski, E. J., & Chiombola, E. A. T. (2003) · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Population Growth and the Poverty Cycle in Africa: Colliding Ecological and Economic Processes?
SINCLAIR, A. R. E., & Wells, M. P. (1989) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-556555-4.50021-1 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Cross-boundary human impacts compromise the Serengeti-Mara ecosystem
Veldhuis, M. P., Ritchie, M. E., Ogutu, J. O., Morrison, T. A., Beale, C. M., Estes, A. B., Mwakilema, W., Ojwang, G. O., Parr, C. L., Probert, J., et al. (2019) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aav0564 · Cited by 265 · see citing works
Self-citationLand-cover change and human population trends in the greater Serengeti ecosystem from 1984–2003
Estes, A. B., Kuemmerle, T., Kushnir, H., Radeloff, V. C., & Shugart, H. H. (2012) · Biological Conservation · doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2012.01.010 · Cited by 140 · see citing works
Bartzke, G. S., Ogutu, J. O., Mukhopadhyay, S., Mtui, D., Dublin, H. T., & Piepho, H.-P. (2018) · PLOS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0202814 · Cited by 112 · see citing works
Self-citationFunctional conservation areas and the future of Africa’s wildlife
Fynn, R. W. S., & Bonyongo, M. C. (2011) · African Journal of Ecology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2028.2010.01245.x · Cited by 114 · see citing works
Ogutu, J. O., Kuloba, B., Piepho, H.-P., & Kanga, E. (2017) · PLOS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0169730 · Cited by 71 · see citing works
Self-citationShadrack, N., Moses, M. O., Joseph, M., Shadrack, M., Steve, N., & James, I. (2017) · International Journal of Biodiversity and Conservation · doi:10.5897/ijbc2016.1033 · Cited by 61 · see citing works
Reproductive seasonality in African ungulates in relation to rainfall
Ogutu, J. O., Piepho, H.-P., & Dublin, H. T. (2014) · Wildlife Research · doi:10.1071/wr13211 · Cited by 42 · see citing works
Self-citationThe evolution of eyes: major steps. The Keeler lecture 2017: centenary of Keeler Ltd
Schwab, I. R. (2018) · Eye · doi:10.1038/eye.2017.226 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
Population regulation of African buffalo in the Mara–Serengeti ecosystem
Dublin, H. T., & Ogutu, J. O. (2015) · Wildlife Research · doi:10.1071/wr14205 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
Self-citationOgutu, J. O., Owen-Smith, N., Piepho, H.-P., & Dublin, H. T. (2015) · PLOS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0133744 · Cited by 35 · see citing works
Self-citationThe effect of bushmeat consumption on migratory wildlife in the Serengeti ecosystem, Tanzania
Rentsch, D., & Packer, C. (2015) · Oryx · doi:10.1017/s0030605313001038 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
Ogutu, J. O., Piepho, H.-P., & Dublin, H. T. (2014) · Wildlife Research · doi:10.1071/wr13117 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
Self-citationLong-term historical and projected herbivore population dynamics in Ngorongoro crater, Tanzania
Moehlman, P. D., Ogutu, J. O., Piepho, H.-P., Runyoro, V. A., Coughenour, M. B., & Boone, R. B. (2020) · PLOS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0212530 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
“Consequently, it is important to first establish the influence of rainfall variation on large herbivore population dynamics before the contributions of other factors can be reliably established [10].”
BackgroundSelf-citation
- Authors
- Ogutu, J. O., Piepho, H. ‐., Dublin, H. T., Bhola, N., & Reid, R. S.
- Affiliations
- University of Hohenheim (DE)
- South African National Biodiversity Institute (ZA)
- University of Groningen (NL)
- International Livestock Research Institute (KE)
- Corresponding author
- Ogutu, J. O.
- Venue
- Journal of Zoology
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2009-04-20
- Volume
- 278
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 1-14
- ISSN
- 0952-8369 (ISSN-L)
- 1469-7998
- OpenAlex
- W2067918061
- Cited by
- 166
- References
- 39
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 7 · 2022: 6 · 2021: 7 · 2020: 15 · 2019: 17 · 2018: 9 · 2017: 15 · 2016: 10 · 2015: 12 · 2014: 16 · 2013: 3 · 2012: 13
- FWCI
- 10.53
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Journal of Zoology (publishedVersion)
- CGSPace A Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research) (submittedVersion)
- University of Groningen research database (University of Groningen / Centre for Information Technology) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Wildlife Ecology and Conservation
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Rangeland and Wildlife Management
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Animal Ecology and Behavior Studies
- Keywords
- ungulate population dynamics, Maasai Mara National Reserve, land use change, habitat degradation, drought, ENSO, poaching, livestock competition, predation, Syncerus caffer, population decline (ecology)
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review