How Lasting Is Voter Gratitude? An Analysis of the Short- and Long-term Electoral Returns to Beneficial Policy

“This control is added to account for the well-known interaction between federal and state elections (Kedar 2006; Kern and Hainmueller 2006); given the SPD’s control of the federal government, we may expect that the party attains fewer votes in districts where it also had control of the government…”

“First, they can rally citizens around the Head of the State when these citizens perceive that the policies indeed help solve the issue or at least bring some relief (e.g., Bechtel & Hainmueller 2011; Healy & Malhotra 2009).”

“There is also increasing evidence that personal economic circumstances, such as declining wages, benefit cuts or unemployment, are important determinants of voting behaviour (Bechtel and Hainmueller 2011; Margalit 2011; Richter 2006).”

“24 For example, Bechtel and Hainmueller (2011) reference the “peak-and-end” heuristic to explain voters’ reactions to government disaster response before elections, an interpretation that our results support.”

“This argument proposes that citizens evaluate political institutions and policies in times of crisis and extend some degree of gratitude for swift relief (Bechtel & Hainmueller 2011).”

“…argues that the public, in aggregate, holds policy knowledge, demonstrates retrospective voting and exhibits lasting electoral responsiveness to policy (Key, 1966; Fiorina, 1981; Page and Shapiro, 1992; Lupia, 1994; Johnson et al., 2005; Bechtel and Hainmueller, 2011; Erikson and Stoker, 2011).”

“Analysing 15 Western European countries, Bol et al. (2021) show that the lockdown has increased satisfaction with democracy, trust in government and (albeit to lesser extent) vote intentions for the party of the Prime Minister/President.”

“Voters respond to specific policies with direct consequences for their own welfare, such as disaster relief or cuts in social expenditure, by adjusting their political preferences and vote choices (Bechtel and Hainmueller 2011; Healy and Malhotra 2010, 2013; Margalit 2012; Zucco Jr 2013).”

“If disasters amplify the effect of type, then ′ ≡ i is more informative than ≡ u.”

“Many scholars have employed the two-way FE model as a form of DiD [14–18].”

“Yet another set of findings claims that voters do a better job of identifying and responding to relevant information (Bechtel and Hainmueller 2011; Chen 2013; Healy and Malhotra 2010).”

“15 First, our strategy for answering the counterfactual question above is the well-known difference-in-differences design (Bechtel and Hainmueller 2011; Finkel and Smith 2011; Ladd and Lenz 2009).”

“Alternatively, climate-related political behaviors may be overshadowed by other factors that influence political preferences during crises, including public evaluation of government performance (Bechtel and Hainmueller 2011; Malhotra and Kuo 2008) and political participation (Jenkins 2019).”

“Abney and Hill (1966) and Chen (2013) show that there are clear short-term electoral gains for providing relief post-disaster, and Bechtel and Hainmueller (2011) provide evidence from the 2002 Elbe River flood in Germany that electoral benefits to incumbents persist through several elections.”

“What we know now is that the floods had enduring political effects two years on, but evidence from work in Germany suggests we may expect effects even long after that (Bechtel and Hainmueller, 2011).”

“Dramatic international events and natural disasters frequently result in a so-called “rally-‘round-the-flag effect”, i.e., a short-term increase in people’s support for and trust in their government (e.g., Bechtel and Hainmueller 2011; Chanley 2002; Mueller 1970).”

“…and Vidal 2017), initial evidence suggests that the shock induced by the COVID-crisis has increased political trust (Bækgaard et al. 2020; Bol et al. 2021; Esaiasson et al. 2020), potentially pointing to the conditioning effect of a swift and robust state response (Bechtel and Hainmueller 2011).”

“The bulk of the literature has mainly studied the political consequences of floods (Bechtel and Hainmueller 2011; Visconti 2018), hurricanes (Sinclair et al. 2011; Chen 2013), tornadoes (Healy and Malhotra 2010), severe weather events (Gasper and Reeves 2011), forest fires (Lazarev et al. 2014),…”

“Moreover, there is evidence that policymakers react to environmental in fl uences by implementing environmental policies after natural disasters (Bechtel and Hainmueller 2011).”

“Using this break with a DD regression design allows us to identify the effect of a treatment (joining the EU) by comparing how outcomes (emphasis on non-economic issues) change across treated and untreated observations before and after treatment (Bechtel & Hainmueller, 2011).”

“Organizing responsiveness efforts according to the electoral cycle is effective, as voters’ gratitude for government action declines over time and good deeds before elections count more than those in the distant past (Bechtel and Hainmueller, 2011).”

“…component of the study of social relations and reciprocal behavior (Gulliford et al. 2013)—has been widely studied by scholars from disciplines such as politics, sociology, economics, and management (e.g., Bechtel and Hainmueller 2011; DeSteno et al. 2014; Fehr et al. 2017; Simpson et al. 2018).”

“…and Malhotra, 2009, 2010; Achen and Bartels, 2004); and second, studies also suggest that incumbent governments are well aware of this and that they adjust their disaster responses accordingly (Bechtel and Hainmueller, 2011; Healy and Malhotra, 2009; Reeves, 2011; Gasper and Reeves, 2011a, b).”

“Also, there is evidence that the distribution of help during a disaster can have relatively lasting effects on the outcome of elections (Bechtel & Hainmueller, 2011).”

“…to natural disasters and researchers therefore typically used a 12–24 month time window before an election to define the treatment (Bechtel and Hainmueller 2011, Hazlett andMildenberger 2020, Baccini and Leemann 14 In supplementary table S.8 we also show results for continuous specifications…”

“…of the pandemic appears more emotionally driven (De Vries et al. 2021; Jørgensen, Bor, and Petersen 2021; Schra ff 2021), long-term dynamics might relate more to rational evaluations of government performance (Bechtel and Hainmueller 2011; Colaresi 2007; Johansson, Hopmann, and Shehata 2021).”

“While we may hope that in disaster situations governments rise above political concerns, this has not been the case in the distribution of disaster aid (Aldrich 2011), nor in the timing and amount of disaster spending (Bechtel and Hainmueller 2011).”

“Bechtel and Hainmueller (2011) find that the aid response to the Elbe flooding in 2002 increased vote shares for the incumbent in subsequent elections.”

“11 It should be noted, however, that Bechtel and Hainmueller (2011), examining the 2002 Elbe flooding in Germany, find a seven- percentage-point gain for the incumbent party in the affected areas, following a massive policy response. 12 Note that the parallelism in mood trends reported by Erikson, MacKuen, and Stimson…”

“This includes studies on the effects of natural disasters and disaster relief spending on support for incumbents (Bechtel and Hainmueller 2011; Chen 2013; Gasper and Reeves 2011; Healy and Malhotra 2009).”

“Our study is also related to work on the impact of natural disasters and unearned income on economic and political outcomes, such as Bechtel and Hainmueller (2011); Lazarev et al. (Forthcoming) and Quiroz Flores and Smith (2013).6 We should also add that the fact that money critical for…”

“Many studies highlight how voters may punish politicians for disasters outside the politicians’ control (Achen & Bartels, 2017), but reward politicians for providing relief (Blankenship et al., 2020; Bechtel & Hainmueller, 2011; Gasper & Reeves, 2011; Healy & Malhotra, 2009).”

“Examples include Ladd and Lenz (2009), Bechtel and Hainmueller (2011), Bullock and Clinton (2011), Keele and Minozzi (2013), and Garfias (2018). Note that we list exemplary papers here and thus, we also include papers from journals other than APSR and AJPS.”

“A considerable body of literature has studied the electoral impact of extreme weather events (Abney and Hill, 1966; Bechtel and Hainmueller, 2011; Gasper and Reeves, 2011; Reeves, 2011; Chen, 2012), the role of political communication in the context of natural disasters (Sood et al., 1987; Utz et…”

“Previous studies have shown that the electoral outcomes of disastrous events substantially depend on how the incumbent manages the crisis (Betchel and Hainmueller, 2011).”

“Leaders are evaluated based on their policy decisions, as changes in approval are tied to whether voters perceive responses as adequate, and changes in sentiment can persist over time (Bechtel and Hainmueller 2011).”

“In line with other studies we described in Section 1, the main results in columns (1), (3) and (5) show that voters living in districts hit by a hurricane are somewhat more likely to believe that climate change is happening (a 4% increase compared to the average), and are especially more likely to support climate chan…”

“gratitude’ effect lasted until the election in 2009 (Bechtel and Hainmueller, 2011).”

“The evidence in the empirical studies so far is mainly based on data collected at the local or regional level (United States: Chen, 2013; Garrett & Sobel, 2003; Healy & Malhotra, 2009; Germany: Bechtel & Hainmueller, 2011; India: Cole et al., 2012).”

“Disaster relief may foster effect persistence by generating voter gratitude (Bechtel and Hainmueller 2011), or it may undermine effect persistence by inducing beneficiaries to focus myopically on recovery over mitigation (Healy and Malhotra 2009).”

“28 In their analysis of the political consequences of the provided aid in the aftermath of the Elbe flood of 2002, Bechtel and Hainmueller (2011) implicitly assume high compensation rates, which is in line with our line of argument.”

“Previous research has confirmed that if policy makers are only concerned about recent policy benefits and that this shortsightedness provokes inefficient public policy [46,47].”

“Other studies find similar results in the United States and Germany, showing that voters reward disaster relief (Bechtel & Hainmueller, 2011; Chen, 2013; Gasper & Reeves, 2011).”

“Studies of “pocketbook voting” also demonstrate that voters reward incumbent politicians when they receive tangible benefits (Bechtel and Hainmueller 2011; Healy, Persson, and Snowberg 2017; Margalit 2011).”

“Previous evidence also from Germany suggests that voters gratitude to local services (Bechtel and Hainmueller, 2011) lasts for at least one election term.”

“Changes in the perceived costs and benefits of voting can either increase or decrease turnout (Aldrich, 1993), and vote shares can shift as voters punish (Cole, Healy and Werker, 2012) or reward incumbents (Cole, Healy and Werker, 2012; Bechtel and Hainmueller, 2011).”

“…and Bartels 2016), another part sees natural disasters as an opportunity for voters to observe their government’s reaction, learn about its type, and condition their vote accordingly (e.g., Healy and Malhotra 2009; Bechtel and Hainmueller 2011; Cole, Healy, and Werker 2012; Gasper and Reeves 2011).”

“As suggested by prior research (Bechtel & Hainmueller, 2011; Chen, 2013; Gasper & Reeves, 2011; Healy & Malhotra, 2009), the reason may be that hurricane relief efforts are rewarded at the polls.”

“…indeed tend to consider politicians’ actions in the realm of natural disasters—in terms of both provision of relief payments (Healy and Malhotra 2009; Bechtel and Hainmueller 2011), and on-site visits (Butzek 2008; Lazarev et al. 2014)—albeit there is still uncertainty about how long voters’…”

“more details, see Berry et al. (2010). gislator elected in year t does not serve until year t + 1, and therefore does not formulate a budget until year t + 2.”