How Lasting Is Voter Gratitude? An Analysis of the Short- and Long-term Electoral Returns to Beneficial Policy

“This control is added to account for the well-known interaction between federal and state elections (Kedar 2006; Kern and Hainmueller 2006); given the SPD’s control of the federal government, we may expect that the party attains fewer votes in districts where it also had control of the government…”

“Similarly, Bechtel and Hainmueller (2011) found that a massive policy response to the 2002 Elbe flooding in Germany increased vote shares for the incumbent party by seven percentage points, which, evaluated in 2002, represented an 18% increase in vote share.”

“In an electoral context, disaster politics has largely focused on the fate of the incumbent (Achen and Bartels, 2016; Bechtel and Hainmueller, 2011; Cooperman, 2022; Eriksson, 2016; Gasper and Reeves, 2011; Healy and Malhotra, 2009).”

“Bechtel and Hainmueller (2011) find that disaster relief spending after the 2002 Elbe flooding in Germany boosted the incumbent’s vote share both immediately and in subsequent elections.”

“For instance, Gomez et al. (2007) show that rainfall on U.S. election days reduces turnout, disproportionately harming Democrats, while Bechtel and Hainmueller (2011) find that flooding before German lo-cal elections increased incumbent re-election prospects.”

“Our evidence also contributes a new dimension to the literature on voters ’ short-term memory, which has focused on whether voters respond more to outcomes that arise in the election year as opposed to longer-term outcomes (Bechtel and Hainmueller 2011; Healy and Lenz 2014).”

“There is clear evidence of a short-term, myopic, memory amongst voters (Bechtel and Hainmueller, 2011; Cole et al., 2012; Healy and Lenz, 2014; Ruiz et al., 2023).”

“Bechtel and Hainmueller (2011), for example, report in the context of disaster relief in Germany in 2002 that the price per vote was about EURO 63,000 (GDP per capita around EURO 25,000), while Healy and Malhorta (2009) estimate one additional vote cost $27,000 (GDP per capita around $45,000) in…”

“…external events and scandals, including the war in Ukraine, the railway tragedy in Tempi, the spyware scandal of the National Intelligence Service, which, according to the theory of retrospective voting, sway public opinion against the government (Healy & Malhotra 2013; Bechtel & Hainmueller 2011).”

“Recent empirical papers have exploited a variety of natural experiments (e.g., Alt et al. (2011), Gasper & Reeves (2011), Bechtel & Hainmueller (2011), Reeves & Gimpel (2012), Stokes (2016)) and controlled experiments 6 (e.g., Malhotra & Kuo (2008), Malhotra & Margalit (2014)).”

“Empirical findings are contained in Baron (2013) ; Bechtel et al. (2011) . 2 Fehr et al. (1993) ; Maggian et al.”

“In some cases, disasters appear to be beneficial for leaders (e.g., Bechtel and Hainmueller 2011; Gasper and Reeves 2011; Healy and Malhotra 2009; Lazarev et al. 2014).”

“The estimates from these two 11 Some recent studies also incorporate spatial discontinuity in research design, see for example Keele and Titunik (2012) and Bechtel and Hainmueller (2011).”

“In a narrow sense, the findings add to the discussion on the electoral incentives for natural disaster policies (Healy and Malhotra, 2009; Gasper and Reeves, 2011; Bechtel and Hainmueller, 2011; Cole et al., 2012). The findings do not invalidate previous findings but instead call for a more nuanced interpretation of t…”

“This mirrors the results of previous studies showing the long-term effects of favorable policies on electoral outcomes (Bechtel and Hainmueller, 2011).”