How Lasting Is Voter Gratitude? An Analysis of the Short- and Long-term Electoral Returns to Beneficial Policy

“This control is added to account for the well-known interaction between federal and state elections (Kedar 2006; Kern and Hainmueller 2006); given the SPD’s control of the federal government, we may expect that the party attains fewer votes in districts where it also had control of the government…”

“…institutions manage the emergency (Roccato et al. 2021) in the second phase and by a return to a rational evaluation of how the institutions actually manage the country (Bechtel and Mueller 2011; Colaresi 2007) in the third phase, when the crisis becomes normalized (Johansson et al. 2021).”

“Citizens evaluate political institutions and policies in times of crisis and express a certain degree of gratitude for prompt relief (Bechtel and Hainmueller, 2011), especially when a high degree of uncertainty under COVID-19 has weakened the common cognitive processes used by the electorate to evaluate the political…”

“For Germany, Bechtel and Hainmueller (2010) estimate an immediate electoral gain of about 7 percentage points for the incumbent party in areas affected by flooding and their estimates suggest that 25% of this effect is carried to elections 3 years later.”

“There have been similar findings about voters’ reactions to government responses after severe weather events (Gasper & Reeves, 2011), floods (Bechtel & Hainmueller, 2011), and fires (Lazarev et al., 2014).”

“Analysing the case of the 2002 Elbe flooding in Germany, Bechtel and Hainmueller (2011) show that voters in the affected areas rewarded the incumbent party for its policy response in both the 2002 and the 2005 elections.”

“Bechtel and Hainmueller (2011) examine the durability of voter gratitude for effective disaster policies by drawing on voting behaviour after the Elbe flood in 2002.”

“Also, this means that there is a gap between the occurrence of the event and the survey; however, this should not undermine the possibility of finding any effects since previous evidence found that disasters can have long-lasting effects [34].”

“The conditional nature of “voter gratitude,” a term used by Bechtel and Hainmueller (2011), is a clear indication that voters are reacting to more than just receiving money from the government.”

“Bechtel and Hainmueller (2011) examine this question with respect to the relief provided in response to the 2002 flooding of the Elbe River in Germany.”

“Indeed, during times of crisis voters generally appreciate leaders with humanitarian principles and good leadership (Bechtel & Hainmueller, 2011; Bol et al., 2021; Healy & Malhotra, 2009).”

“Empirical literature has found that natural disasters indeed have an effect on political and electoral outcomes (Achen & Bartels, 2004, 2012; Bechtel & Hainmueller, 2011; Gallego, 2015; Quiroz & Smith, 2013; Visconti, 2015), where its negative impact has been understood as a sign of voter…”

“…studies on conditional cash transfers (CCTs) (De La O and Lorena 2012; Manacorda, Miguel, and Vigorito 2011; Zucco 2013), disaster relief spending (Bechtel and Hainmueller 2011), and other governmental transfers (Pop-Eleches and Pop-Eleches 2012) find that beneficiaries reward incumbents for…”

“…that investigates government responses to natural disasters to identify the relationship between policy action and voter responses (e.g. Achen and Bartels, 2004; Bechtel and Hainmueller, 2011; Gasper and Reeves, 2011; Healy and Malhotra, 2013; Malhotra and Kuo, 2008; Masiero and Santarossa, 2021).”

“…types of policies they implement in this context and find that relief spending, in the form of direct payment to eligible citizens, is supported while preparedness policies are not, despite the clear societal benefits of the latter (see also Bechtel & Hainmueller, 2011; Bechtel & Mannino, 2020).”

“…the United States examines the executive branch and how voters punish or reward federal and local governments after a natural disaster has taken place (Abney and Hill 1966; Achen and Bartels 2004; Malhotra and Kuo 2008; Healy and Malhotra 2009; Bechtel and Hainmueller 2011; Gasper and Reeves 2011).”

“2021; Maffioli 2021), after natural disasters (e.g., Healy and Malhotra 2009; Bechtel and Hainmueller 2011), terrorist attacks (e.”

“Analogous to Bechtel and Hainmueller (2011) I consider i = {1,…, 51} states where biennial statewide general elections took place in the years t = {1978, 1980,…, 2000}.”

“…shocks, such as those generated by plant pathogen outbreaks, extend beyond immediate disaster management and relief (Arceneaux and Stein 2006; Bechtel and Hainmueller 2011; Gasper and Reeves 2011; Healy and Malhotra 2013; Malhotra and Kuo 2008) to concerns about the fate of one ’ s community…”

“But when citizens are unsure of when the next disaster will strike, leaders have incentives to provide relief afterward rather than take preventive actions (Bechtel & Hainmueller, 2011; Gailmard & Patty, 2019; Healy & Malhotra, 2009).”

“Healy and Malhotra (2009) find that the more money the United States (U.S.) spends on disaster relief, the more voters support the incumbent president.”

“Germany ’ s unprecedented domestic deployment of 45,000 soldiers after a major flood in 2002, for example, secured the incumbent party ’ s re-election in the same year (Bechtel and Hainmueller, 2011).”

“For example, turnout responds to factors such as bad weather (Sinclair et al., 2011; Bechtel and Hainmueller, 2011; Gomez et al., 2007), the proximity of polling stations (McNulty et al., 2009; Brady and McNulty, 2011), electronic (Fujiwara, 2015) and early voting (Burden et al., 2014), as well as…”

“This theory, which dates back to The American Voter (Campbell et al., 1960), has been the subject of numerous observational (e.g. Bechtel and Hainmueller, 2011; Gomez and Wilson, 2001; 2003; Grafstein, 2009; Lewis-Beck and Stegmaier, 2000; Lewis-Beck, 1985; Romero and Stambough, 1996) and…”

“1 The academic literature shows that climatic events influence voters’ perceptions of incumbents in different ways (see contrasting results in e.g. Bechtel and Hainmueller (2011), Ashworth et al. (2018), Gallego (2018), Klomp (2020), Masiero and Santarossa (2021).”

“…and wars (Frieden et al., 2013; Mueller, 1973; Schubert et al., 2002), terrorist attacks (Chanley, 2002; Chowanietz, 2011), natural disasters (Bechtel & Hainmueller, 2011) and public health crises like the Spanish flu or the coronavirus pandemic (Bol et al., 2021; Esaiasson et al., 2021;…”

“Following Bechtel and Hainmueller (2011), we probe the plausibility of this assumption with a falsification test that estimates a placebo DiD regression for the pre-treatment period.”

“Candidates with a doctorate can be thought of as the “treatment group” and candidates without a doctorate as the “control group” (cf. Bechtel & Hainmueller, 2011).”

“During crises, proper policy responses lead to electoral returns for the incumbent authorities (Bechtel and Hainmueller 2011).”

“Similarly, several studies show that governments’ handling of natural disasters can impact voting behaviour (Bechtel and Hainmueller, 2011; Healy and Malhotra, 2009), and Carlin et al. (2014) found that the Chilean earthquake significantly impacted public opinion towards democracy.”

“…work uses natural disasters as an empirical tool to understand whether voters irrationally punish politicians for acts of nature and/or reward them for providing generous postdisaster aid (Healy and Malhotra 2009; Bechtel and Hainmueller 2011; Gasper and Reeves 2011; Cole et al. 2012; Chen 2013).”

“…of disaster relief (Besley and Burgess, 2002; Strömberg, 2004; Eisensee and Strömberg, 2007; Healy and Malhotra, 2009; Gasper and Reeves, 2011; Bechtel and Hainmueller, 2011) or between natural disasters and the adoption of green bills (Pattachini, Paserman, and Gagliarducci, 2019; Kahn,…”

“Bechtel and Hainmueller (2011) found positive reactions to relief spending in Germany for two elections, while Ericksson (2016) found negative reactions to a lack of relief spending in Sweden carrying over three elections.”

“…∗∗∗Email: sebastian.strunz@ufz.de ∗∗∗∗Email: c.heuson@gmx.de 473 The subsequent public disaster relief efforts are widely seen as an important reason why the incumbent German government of Chancellor Schröder did not lose that year’s general election (e.g., Bechtel and Hainmueller, 2011).”

“Other studies find that natural disasters bear only temporary influences on citizens’ retrospective and prospective policy and political beliefs (Healy and Malhotra 2009, Gasper and Reeves 2011, Bechtel and Hainmueller 2011).”

“Consequently, the electoral impact of a disaster tends to diminish as time elapses (Bechtel & Hainmueller, 2011; Cole et al., 2012; Kondoh & Miyazaki, 2024).”

“For example, electoral returns for incumbents arose from the allocation of relief spending in Colombia, following the disaster caused by the 2010 to 2011 rainy season (Gallego, 2018); in Germany, following the 2002 Elbe flooding (Bechtel & Hainmueller, 2011); and in Italy,”

“…fast any such rewards decayed over time, and how the policy’s enactment influenced the voting behavior of non-beneficiaries, among other questions (Bechtel and Hainmueller, 2011; Labonne, 2013; Linos, 2013; Zucco, 2013; Tobias et al., 2014; Correa and Cheibub, 2016; Conover et al., 2018; Kogan,…”

“…performance for their political support even during exogenous shocks such as natural disaster (Healy and Malhotra 2009, 2010; Reeves 2011; Bechtel and Hainmueller 2011; Remmer 2014) and the on-going COVID-19 crisis (Bol et al. 2021; Amat et al. 2020; Herrera et al. 2020; Shin 2021), we…”

“Previous studies have shown that the electoral outcomes of disruptive events substantially depend on the policy response of the incumbent [20,21].”

“, wars [13], natural disasters and subsequent beneficial policies [14], social pacts and legislative reform [15,16], income inequality [17], subjective well-being [18].”

“Bechtel and Hainmueller (2011), for example, find evidence of increased voting for incumbents who were perceived to have successfully managed damaged caused by flooding in Germany, whereas Cole, Healy, and Werker (2012) find the obverse result in India, where incumbents experienced a decrease in…”