How Lasting Is Voter Gratitude? An Analysis of the Short- and Long-term Electoral Returns to Beneficial Policy

“This control is added to account for the well-known interaction between federal and state elections (Kedar 2006; Kern and Hainmueller 2006); given the SPD’s control of the federal government, we may expect that the party attains fewer votes in districts where it also had control of the government…”

“…the realization of risks in the form of actual failure events—regardless of elected leaders’ foreknowledge— may better demonstrate the need for change and convince voters to support increased spending (Healy and Malhotra 2009; Bechtel and Hainmueller 2011; but see Bechtel and Mannino 2023 ).”

“Furthermore, in line with previous literature on voter “memory” (Bechtel & Hainmueller, 2011), we expect effects to be the strongest in elections taking place dur‐ ing, and soon after, the bypassing process and fading out after a few years.”

“…public policy strategically to draw non-voters to the polls, capture new voters or reinforce support from existing loyalists (see, e.g. Kramer 1971; Fair 1975; Nordhaus 1975; Tufte 1978; Ames 1987; Pepinsky 2008; Guo 2009; Bechtel and Hainmuller 2011; Layton and Smith 2015; Higashijima 2010, 2016).”

“…that localized disasters and disaster management shape a wide variety of political attitudes and behaviors, like vote choice (Achen & Bartels, 2004; Bechtel & Hainmueller, 2011; Healy & Malhotra, 2009) and trust (Chanley, 2002; Han et al., 2011; Hui, 2009; Nicholls & Picou, 2013; Uslaner, 2016).”

“This literature assumes, sometimes by default, that time does not matter, that is, it rarely takes into account that, as we know, voters change their perception of the effect of policies over time (Atkinson and Fowler 2014; Bechtel and Hainmueller 2011; Fiorina 1978).”

“If state violence does indeed influence voter behavior, two micro-channels may be active: switching and demobilization (Bechtel and Hainmueller 2011; Stokes 2016).”

“This leads to a decline in trust in political institutions, which tends to return to pre-shock levels (Bechtel and Hainmueller 2011).”

“This approach is similar to the difference-in-differences (DID) strategy, which is commonly used in the literature that explores effects of disasters on voting behaviour (e.g. Bechtel & Hainmueller, 2011; Jusko & Spáč, 2024; Masiero & Santarossa, 2021).”

“After landslides in Colombia [35], Hurricane Sandy in the USA [99] and the 2002 Elbe flooding in Germany [10], voters rewarded the political parties for their relief work.”

“Bechtel and Hainmueller (2011) explore the impact of an effective policy response to a natural disaster in Germany.”

“After catastrophic events—such as earthquakes, floods, and hurricanes—voters often reward political candidates and incumbents [1–5] or punish them electorally [6–11], depending on how they responded to such events.”

“Previous research suggests that crises and disasters instigate increased support for the governing party (Bechtel and Hainmueller, 2011; Healy and Malhotra, 2009).”

“It is an uncontroversial assumption that extreme weather events affect electoral outcomes through voters’ political psychology, and researchers rarely explore other possibilities (Bechtel & Hainmueller, 2011 ; Healy & Malhotra, 2009).”

“…aid show that the incumbent executive or party can benefit from the provision of aid, while a lack of aid can result in incumbents losing support (Bechtel and Hainmueller, 2011; Cole et al., 2012; Fuchs and Rodriguez-Chamussy, 2014; Gasper and Reeves, 2011; Healy and Malhotra, 2009; Lazarev et…”

“…knowledge, personal experience with economic hardship (Benton, 2005; Fiorina, 1981; Lewis-Beck and Ratto, 2013), crime (Pérez, 2015), and natu-ral disaster relief (Bechtel and Hainmueller, 2011; Healy and Malhotra, 2009) serve as heuristics by which voters judge incumbents’ policy performance.”

“Legislative professionalism “insulates” incumbents from external threats to their re-election bids (Berry, Berkman, and Schneiderman, 2000).(9) Even minor decreases in the capacity of staff will strain remaining staffers’ capabilities to aid the legislator, harming her re-election prospects.”

“…also influence existing scholarly work, because many studies on crises investigate the effects of a single crisis (e.g. Arceneaux and Stein 2006; Bechtel and Hainmueller 2011; De Vries et al. 2021) or multiple occurrences of the same kind of crisis, such as multiple floods or wildfires (e.g.…”

“Conversely, they reward politicians who respond to the disaster effectively, often through increased relief spending (Bechtel and Hainmueller, 2011; Fukumoto and Kikuta, 2024; Healy and Malhotra, 2009).”

“Moreover, the federal government started ”the largest military disaster relief operation ever carried out by German forces since World War II” (Bechtel and Hainmüller 2011).”

“This literature also suggests that voters possess a reasonable degree of policy awareness and respond to public policies in ways that reflect their material interests and political preferences (Bechtel and Hainmueller 2011).”

“…speaking, political actors face electoral punishment for negative outcomes that occur under their watch, including perceived or real mishandling of natural disasters (Malhotra & Kuo 2008; Gasper & Reeves 2011), although proper provision of aid may reverse this effect (Bechtel & Hainmueller 2011).”

“On the one hand, Bechtel and Hainmueller (2011b) observed that disaster bene fi ts in Germany led to a sustained increase in the vote share among recipients for the party that implemented them, a trend that persisted for two subsequent elections before diminishing.”

“However, drawing on recent studies showing that voters can look beyond a single year’s trend (Aytaç 2021; Bechtel and Hainmueller 2011; Jankowski 2018; Wlezien 2015), we expect that providing survey respondents with information about long-term crime trends and recent changes will shape their…”

“Some have investigated the strategic use of disaster relief spending (Besley and Burgess 2002; Chen 2012; Reeves 2011), as well as electoral effects over several election cycles (Bechtel and Hainmueller 2011), alongside shifts in long-standing party support (Eriksson 2016).”

“First, previous research suggests that voters reward politicians for their immediate response (Gasper and Reeves 2011; Reeves 2011) and for relief spending after the onset of crises such as disasters (Bechtel and Hainmueller 2011; Fair et al. 2017; Velez and Martin 2013).”

“Studies show that economic evaluations often have myopic foundations; that is, voters tend to consider limited time frames when assessing the economic performance of governments (Healy and Malhotra 2009; Bechtel and Hainmueller 2011).”

“Relief aid can mitigate electoral backlash (Bechtel and Hainmueller 2011).”

“Most research in this context examines the effects of fiscal expenditures on disaster relief (Healy and Malhotra, 2009; Gasper and Reeves, 2011; Bechtel and Hainmueller, 2011).”

“This phenomenon corresponds to the rallying of citizens around the authorities in crisis situations presented in the works of Bol et al. (2020) and Bechtel and Hainmueller (2011).”

“First, major crises can rally the electorate around the status quo when they perceive that the decisions made in the crisis by incumbent governments bring some relief (Healy & Malhotra, 2009; Bechtel & Hainmueller, 2011; Bol et al., 2021).”

“The recent interest in epistocracy, defended most notably in the work of Jason Brennan (2011, 2016), has prompted considerable opposition.2 Epistocracy is thought to undermine the freedom and equality that is granted through universal suffrage, and in some forms, to unfairly discriminate against citizens from poorer b…”

“…abounds for a correlation between conditions before an election and the election result, much of it in the economic realm (e.g., Bartels 2008; Bechtel and Hainmueller 2011; Duch and Stevenson 2008; Healy and Malhotra 2009; Tufte 1978; Wlezien 2015), but many of these studies relate…”

“Third, resource distribution, which assesses how public aid and resources during disasters can influence political relations and create inequality in the electoral arena (Bechtel & Hainmueller, 2011; Cole et al., 2012).”

“Prior literature has emphasized the role of myopic voters who focus on short-term outcomes (Nordhaus 1975; Cohen and Noll 1991; Duch and Ste-venson 2006; Bechtel and Hainmueller 2011).”

“…(Sozzi 2016 ; Alemán et al. 2018 ; Zittel et al. 2019 ; Harmening et al. 2025 ), the impact of natural disasters on electoral outcomes (Bechtel and Hainmueller 2011 ; Hilbig and Riaz 2024) or the effects of protest events on public attitudes (Wallace et al. 2014 ; Pavlic 2021 ; Xu and…”