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Subthreshold depression as a risk indicator for major depressive disorder: a systematic review of prospective studies
Open accessAbstract
Objective: In order to examine whether the incidence of major depressive disorder (MDD) is increased in subjects with subthreshold depression, or sD (clinically relevant depressive symptoms, without meeting criteria for a full‐blown MDD), we conducted a review of prospective studies examining the incidence of MDD in subjects with sD. Method: A systematic literature search was conducted. For all studies, the relative risk of developing MDD was calculated, based on person‐years. Results: Twenty studies (23 comparisons) were found, based on community samples, general medical patients and high‐risk subjects. Most comparisons showed that subjects with sD had a consistently larger chance of developing MDD. The studies differed considerably in the definition of sD, the recency (occurrence of the last sD) and the in‐/exclusion of lifetime MDD. Conclusion: The incidence of MDD in subjects with sD is larger than in subjects without sD. Otherwise, the concept of sD is too broad to be used. In future studies, some consensus should be reached regarding the definition of sD.
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“Prospective epidemiologic studies report much higher lifetime prevalence of major depression in the range of 30-40%. 141”
From Time for united action on depression: a Lancet–World Psychiatric Association Commission (2022) · cites this paper as [141]
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“Most estimates of lifetime prevalence of depression are based on retrospective reports and need to be interpreted with caution as they are likely to underestimate true lifetime prevalence. 141”
From Time for united action on depression: a Lancet–World Psychiatric Association Commission (2022) · cites this paper as [141]
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“It is highly related to a subject’s mental state and the risk of developing depression [19,20].”
From Mobile Sensing and Support for People With Depression: A Pilot Trial in the Wild (2016) · cites this paper as [20]
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“…depression (StD) refers to depressive clinical symptoms that do not meet the major depressive disorder (MDD) standard diagnostic criteria or that reach the depression scale cutoff but are not confirmed by a diagnostic interview (Cuijpers et al., 2014; Cuijpers & Smit, 2004; Hwang et al., 2015).”
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“2011, Vol. 82, No. 1, pp. 9-15 閾値下抑うつ(subthreshold depression)はうつ病 の診断基準を満たさないレベルの軽度の抑うつを指し (Cuijpers & Smit, 2004),大学生の重大な健康問題の 一つになっている(桾本・山崎,2008)。青年期の閾 値下抑うつは成人期でのうつ病発症および自殺行動の 危険因子であると報告されている(Fergusseon, Horwood, Ridder, & Beautrais, 2005)。Harrington…”
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“Slaapcursus Welbevinden (WEMWBS) 45,4 (8,6) 48,1 (8,7) -1,31 38 0,31 0,198 Depressie (CES-D) 21,9 (10,3) 15,9 (10,6) 2,39 34 0,58 0,023* Angst (GAD-7) 8,5 (4,7) 6,3 (5,0) 1,98 41 0,47 0,055 Slapen (JSEQ) 14,9 (3,9) 8,4 (5,8) 6,64 43 1,67 0,000*** Stress (PSS) 20,2 (6,2) 16,7 (7,6) 2,52 41 0,56 0,016* Piekeren (PSWQ) 3…”
Vázquez, F. L., López, L., Blanco, V., Otero, P., Torres, Á., & Otero, M. J. F. (2019) · Anales de Psicología · doi:10.6018/analesps.35.3.329131 · Cited by 6
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Therapeutic angiogenesis for ischemic heart disease.
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Li, W., He, Y., & Xiao, J. (2023) · International Journal of Mental Health and Addiction · doi:10.1007/s11469-023-01194-9 · Cited by 5
“According to Cuijpers and Smit (2004), subthreshold depression is defined as a state where a person’s symptoms of depression have clinical relevance in terms of impaired functioning but do not reach the threshold for major depressive disorder.”
Pearson, R., Beevers, C. G., Mignogna, J., Benzer, J. K., Pfeiffer, P. N., Post, E. P., & Creech, S. K. (2024) · JMIR Research Protocols · doi:10.2196/59119 · Cited by 4
“The rates of transition to MDD for individuals with subthreshold depressive symptoms are exceedingly high both in the short term [13] and long term [14].”
BackgroundNetwork analysis of central symptoms in Chinese young adults with subthreshold depression
Jiang, X., Wang, X., Yu, L., He, J., Wu, S., Zhou, Y., Zhang, M., Yao, L., Yan, J., Zheng, Y., et al. (2025) · Translational Psychiatry · doi:10.1038/s41398-025-03307-5 · Cited by 10
“Moreover, individuals grappling with SD, which is associated with functional impairment, face a 2.95 times greater risk of progressing to MDD compared to those without SD [2, 4, 5].”
InfluentialOtero, P., Smit, F., Cuijpers, P. J., DeRubeis, R. J., Torres, Á., & Vázquez, F. L. (2015) · Psychiatry Research · doi:10.1016/j.psychres.2015.09.005 · Cited by 5
Self-citationThe Importance of Screening for Mild Depression in Adults with Diabetes
Wilhelm, K. A., Reddy, J., Crawford, J., Robins, L., Campbell, L. V., & Proudfoot, J. G. (2017) · Translational Biomedicine · doi:10.21767/2172-0479.1000101 · Cited by 5
“Further, subthreshold depression has previously been found to be associated with difficulties in selfmanaging diabetes [27] and to pose a risk for future MDD [11].”
BackgroundAlejandre-Lara, A. L., Canby, N. K., Wesbecher, K. D., Eichel, K., Britton, W. B., & Lindahl, J. R. (2022) · Cognitive Therapy and Research · doi:10.1007/s10608-021-10287-5 · Cited by 5
“…for inclusion, as such a categorical approach overlooks the significant contribution of subclinical symptoms to the persistent course of illness (Cuijpers & Smit, 2004; Krueger et al., 2003; Lovibond, 1998); functional impairment and quality of life (Cuijpers et al., 2004; Gotlib et al., 1995)…”
BackgroundVandermeer, M. R. J., Liu, P., Ali, O. M., Daoust, A. R., Joanisse, M. F., Barch, D. M., & Hayden, E. P. (2022) · Development and Psychopathology · doi:10.1017/s0954579422000840 · Cited by 7
Schräder, J., Meller, T., Evermann, U., Pfarr, J., & Nenadić, I. (2024) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2024.01.221 · Cited by 5
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Liao, Q., Liu, Y., Dou, Y., Du, Y., Wang, M., Wei, J., Zhao, L., Xiao, Y., & Ma, X. (2024) · Cerebral Cortex · doi:10.1093/cercor/bhae208 · Cited by 5
Morand‐Beaulieu, S., Banica, I., Freeman, C. R., Ethridge, P., Sandre, A., & Weinberg, A. (2024) · Development and Psychopathology · doi:10.1017/s0954579424001780 · Cited by 5
Het bereik van preventieve interventies voor depressie
Cuijpers, P. J., Warmerdam, L., van Straten, A., & van Rooy, M. J. (2010) · TSG - Tijdschrift voor gezondheidswetenschappen · doi:10.1007/bf03089624 · Cited by 5
Self-citationSørensen, H. Ø., Valentin, J. B., Bording, M. K., Larsen, J. I., Larsen, A., & Omland, Ø. (2019) · BMC Psychiatry · doi:10.1186/s12888-019-2027-5 · Cited by 5
Velten, J., Scholten, S., Brailovskaia, J., & Margraf, J. (2021) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0258333 · Cited by 8
“, clinically relevant depressive symptoms not meeting criteria for a major depressive disorder) is also associated with substantial economic costs [4], increased mortality [5], as well as a greater risk for developing a major depressive disorder [6].”
BackgroundAnxiety and depression following facial and dental trauma – A prospective study
Hu, W., Mehta, D., Ludhwani, A., Rupawala, T., Thadani, S., Sood, R., Prajapati, D. G., Patel, H., & Agrawal, M. (2022) · Journal of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery Medicine and Pathology · doi:10.1016/j.ajoms.2022.08.002 · Cited by 5
Late-life depressive symptoms and white matter structural integrity within older Black adults
Fleischman, D. A., Arfanakis, K., Leurgans, S. E., Zhang, S., Lamar, M., Han, S. D., Poole, V. N., Kim, N., Bennett, D. A., & Barnes, L. L. (2023) · Frontiers in Aging Neuroscience · doi:10.3389/fnagi.2023.1138568 · Cited by 5
“Individual differences in brain integrity might add further explanatory power; perhaps it is only those older Black adults who have certain stress exposures concomitant with compromised white matter integrity that are at highest risk of transitioning to a diagnosis of MDD.”
BackgroundInfluentialRobustness and Findings of a Web-Based System for Depression Assessment in a University Work Context
Cuesta, S. A., Bresó, A., Sáez, C., & Garcia-Gomez, J. M. (2019) · International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health · doi:10.3390/ijerph16040644 · Cited by 5
Occupational Determinants of Affective Disorders
Rugulies, R., Aust, B., & Madsen, I. E. H. (2020) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-24334-0_10 · Cited by 5
Johansson, F., Côté, P., Hogg‐Johnson, S., Rudman, A., Holm, L. W., Grotle, M., Jensen, I. B., Sundberg, T., Edlund, B., & Skillgate, E. (2021) · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-70620/v2 · Cited by 5
Shimizu, A., Yokoyama, S., Fermin, A. S. R., Mitsuyama, Y., Mizoi, K., Yoshimoto, J., Furukawa, T. A., Takagaki, K., Okamoto, Y., Okamoto, Y., et al. (2026) · Neuropsychiatric Disease and Treatment · doi:10.2147/ndt.s526034 · Cited by 5
“…factors, and physical health status, and its course varies from spontaneous improvement over time to long-term persistence or progression to MDD. 5,9,34–36 However, distinguishing these outcomes based solely on depressive symptoms listed in diagnostic criteria remains challenging due to their…”
InfluentialZhang, M., Deng, M., Li, X., Zhang, R., Liao, J., Peng, J., Feng, H., Tang, S., Chen, Y., & Mo, L. (2024) · Social Cognitive and Affective Neuroscience · doi:10.1093/scan/nsae086 · Cited by 4
Li, L., Liu, J., Zheng, Y., Shi, C., & Bai, W. (2025) · Depression and Anxiety · doi:10.1155/da/7645625 · Cited by 4
Regional and gender disparities in depression and late life expectancy in Chile
Rueda, S., Miranda‐Castillo, C., & Araya, A.-X. (2025) · Social Psychiatry and Psychiatric Epidemiology · doi:10.1007/s00127-025-02883-7 · Cited by 4
Psychosocial and Health-Related Quality of Life (HRQoL) Aspect of Oral and Maxillofacial Trauma
Braimah, R. O., Ukpong, D. I., & Ndukwe, K. C. (2019) · IntechOpen eBooks · doi:10.5772/intechopen.86875 · Cited by 4
Kanter, J. W., Nash, M. G., Kuczynski, A. M., & Rosen, D. C. (2021) · Journal of Social and Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1521/jscp.2021.40.5.447 · Cited by 5
Kopala‐Sibley, D. C. (2022) · Plenum series on human exceptionality · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-97208-0_11 · Cited by 4
HUANG, L.-X., ZHANG, J.-P., ZHANG, Y.-Y., Qian, L. U. O., & Yang, D. (2023) · 世界针灸杂志:英文版 · doi:10.1016/j.wjam.2023.01.002 · Cited by 4
Metadata
- Authors
- Cuijpers, P., & Smit, F.
- Affiliations
- Trimbos Institute (NL)
- Corresponding author
- Cuijpers, P.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2004-03-28
- Volume
- 109
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 325-331
- ISSN
- 0001-690X (ISSN-L)
- 1600-0447
- OpenAlex
- W2139095467
- Cited by
- 595
- References
- 35
- Citations by year
- 2026: 34 · 2025: 40 · 2024: 32 · 2023: 26 · 2022: 41 · 2021: 36 · 2020: 29 · 2019: 28 · 2018: 21 · 2017: 35 · 2016: 30 · 2015: 37 · 2014: 24 · 2013: 27 · 2012: 27
- FWCI
- 1.97
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- VU Research Portal (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Mental Health Treatment and Access
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Pharmacology (medical) › Treatment of Major Depression
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Anxiety, Depression, Psychometrics, Treatment, Cognitive Processes
- Keywords
- subthreshold depression, major depressive disorder, depression incidence, risk factors, prospective study, relative risk, community sample, vulnerable populations
- MeSH terms
- Major Depressive Disorder, Depressive Disorder, Major, Humans, Prospective Studies, Risk Factors, Severity of Illness Index
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