Observations and modelling of the global distribution and long-term trend of atmospheric 14CO2
Open accessAbstract
Global high-precision atmospheric Δ14CO2 records covering the last two decades are presented, and evaluated in terms of changing (radio)carbon sources and sinks, using the coarse-grid carbon cycle model GRACE. Dedicated simulations of global trends and interhemispheric differences with respect to atmospheric CO2 as well as δ13CO2 and Δ14CO2, are shown to be in good agreement with the available observations (1940–2008). While until the 1990s the decreasing trend of Δ14CO2 was governed by equilibration of the atmospheric bomb 14C perturbation with the oceans and terrestrial biosphere, the largest perturbation today are emissions of 14C-free fossil fuel CO2. This source presently depletes global atmospheric Δ14CO2 by 12–14‰ yr−1, which is partially compensated by 14CO2 release from the biosphere, industrial 14C emissions and natural 14C production. Fossil fuel emissions also drive the changing north–south gradient, showing lower Δ14C in the northern hemisphere only since 2002. The fossil fuel-induced north–south (and also troposphere–stratosphere) Δ14CO2 gradient today also drives the tropospheric Δ14CO2 seasonality through variations of air mass exchange between these atmospheric compartments. Neither the observed temporal trend nor the Δ14CO2 north–south gradient may constrain global fossil fuel CO2 emissions to better than 25%, due to large uncertainties in other components of the (radio)carbon cycle.
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The intra-annual cycle of atmospheric 14C levels has a Northern Hemisphere winter low and a summer high.
“Among explanations for offsets between 14C measurements, the least recognized is the role of the intra-annual cycle of atmospheric 14C levels, with an NH winter low and a summer high5,6,8–10,14.”
From Radiocarbon offsets and old world chronology as relevant to Mesopotamia, Egypt, Anatolia and Thera (Santorini) (2020) · cites this paper as [14]
Section 3.3 confirms a Northern Hemisphere seasonal cycle in atmospheric ¹⁴CO₂. It places the maximum around mid-September and the minimum around late March to early April, however, rather than describing a winter low and summer high. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredDifferences in growing season are potentially relevant to 14C offsets, as an intra-annual pattern in transport across the extratropical tropopause leads to an observed natural seasonal variation in midlatitude NH tropospheric 14C levels between a winter/spring low (minimum late March to early April) and a summer to early autumn high (peak mid-September).
“Differences in growing season are potentially relevant, as an intra-annual pattern in transport across the extratropical tropopause leads to an observed natural seasonal variation in midlatitude NH tropospheric 14C levels between a winter/spring low (minimum late March to early April) and a summer to early autumn high (peak mid-September) (15, 19–22).”
From Mediterranean radiocarbon offsets and calendar dates for prehistory (2020) · cites this paper as [22]
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- Authors
- Levin, I., Naegler, T., Kromer, B., Diehl, M., Francey, R. J., Gomez-Pelaez, A. J., Steele, L. P., Wagenbach, D., Weller, R., & Worthy, D. E.
- Affiliations
- Heidelberg University (DE)
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (AU)
- Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (DE)
- Environment and Climate Change Canada (CA)
- Corresponding author
- Levin, Ingeborg
- Kromer, Bernd
- Diehl, Moritz
- Steele, L. Paul
- Wagenbach, Dietmar
- Weller, Rolf
- Worthy, Douglas E.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology
- Publisher
- Stockholm University Press
- Published
- 2010-01-01
- Volume
- 62
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 26
- ISSN
- 0280-6509 (ISSN-L)
- 1600-0889
- OpenAlex
- W2169780853
- Cited by
- 306
- References
- 1
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 9 · 2023: 13 · 2022: 25 · 2021: 23 · 2020: 20 · 2019: 14 · 2018: 14 · 2017: 21 · 2016: 29 · 2015: 27 · 2014: 23 · 2013: 37 · 2012: 16
- FWCI
- 11.73
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by
- Locations
- Tellus B (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar-und Meeresforschung (Alfred-Wegener-Institut) (acceptedVersion)
- Arcimis (State Meteorological Agency) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Geochemistry and Petrology › Groundwater and Isotope Geochemistry
- Keywords
- carbon-14, bomb 14C, fossil fuel CO2 emissions, carbon cycle modeling, north-south gradient, hemispheric differences, stratosphere-troposphere exchange, carbon sinks and sources, long-term trends
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