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Future CO 2 Emissions and Climate Change from Existing Energy Infrastructure
Abstract
What We're In For: What would our climate future look like if we stopped building any new infrastructure that used fossil fuels? Davis et al. (p. 1330 ; see the Perspective by Hoffert ) made the assumption that all existing infrastructure will be used until the end of its lifetime, after which it will be replaced by infrastructure that does not produce CO 2 . They then calculated the amount of additional CO 2 that will be added to the atmosphere. The outcome is that the concentration of atmospheric CO 2 would remain below 430 parts per million (ppm) (present levels are 390 ppm) and global mean temperatures would increase to 1.3°C above preindustrial values (about 0.5°C above present), well below current targets of 450 ppm and 2°C, respectively.
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“Previous literature has shown that inadequate near-term reduction efforts imply that a substantially higher rate of transformation will be needed to comply with the 2 °C limit11, stranded assets25 and substantially higher mitigation costs in the long term, and reduced techno-economic mitigation potential due to carbon lock-in26.”
From Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement (2020) · cites this paper as [26]
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Metadata
- Authors
- Davis, S. J., Caldeira, K., & Matthews, H. D.
- Affiliations
- Carnegie Institution for Science (US)
- Concordia University (CA)
- Corresponding author
- Davis, Steven J.
- Venue
- Science
- Published
- 2010-09-10
- Volume
- 329
- Issue
- 5997
- Pages
- 1330-1333
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9203
- OpenAlex
- W2144603483
- Cited by
- 1,399
- References
- 22
- Citations by year
- 2026: 95 · 2025: 124 · 2024: 125 · 2023: 138 · 2022: 129 · 2021: 121 · 2020: 117 · 2019: 102 · 2018: 78 · 2017: 83 · 2016: 69 · 2015: 55 · 2014: 56 · 2013: 42 · 2012: 30
- FWCI
- 79.80
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Science (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
- Keywords
- CO2 emissions, climate change, fossil fuel combustion, cumulative emissions, atmospheric CO2 concentration, climate inertia, emission scenarios
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