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Future CO 2 Emissions and Climate Change from Existing Energy Infrastructure

Davis, Steven J., Caldeira, Ken, Matthews, H. Damon·2010·Science

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Abstract

What We're In For: What would our climate future look like if we stopped building any new infrastructure that used fossil fuels? Davis et al. (p. 1330 ; see the Perspective by Hoffert ) made the assumption that all existing infrastructure will be used until the end of its lifetime, after which it will be replaced by infrastructure that does not produce CO 2 . They then calculated the amount of additional CO 2 that will be added to the atmosphere. The outcome is that the concentration of atmospheric CO 2 would remain below 430 parts per million (ppm) (present levels are 390 ppm) and global mean temperatures would increase to 1.3°C above preindustrial values (about 0.5°C above present), well below current targets of 450 ppm and 2°C, respectively.

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“Davis et al. [2010] estimate that the trajectory for the existing global electricity infrastructure coupled with vehicle travel and other fuel use will produce 282–701 Gt CO2 emitted by 2060 resulting in a mean warming of 1.”
Background
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“Power plants, for example, can operate for 30 to 40 yr (e.g. Davis et al. 2010).”
BackgroundInfluential
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“Although past studies on the e ﬀ ects of low-carbon energy on environmental quality have been con ﬂ icting, the use of fossil fuel production of electricity has been proven to have a detrimental e ﬀ ect on the environment [78, 94, 95].”
Background
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“We aim to assess CO2 emission reduction potentials by technology exchange without changing energy systems, as these are slow to adopt (Davis et al., 2010; Unruh, 2000).”
Background

Authors: Davis, S. J., Caldeira, K., & Matthews, H. D.
Affiliations: Carnegie Institution for Science (US)
Concordia University (CA)
Corresponding author: Davis, Steven J.
ORCID: Davis, Steven J.
Caldeira, Ken
Matthews, H. Damon
Venue: Science
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Published: 2010-09-10
Volume: 329
Issue: 5997
Pages: 1330-1333
ISSN: 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
1095-9203
DOI: 10.1126/science.1188566
OpenAlex: W2144603483
Cited by: 1,399
References: 22
Citations by year: 2026: 95 · 2025: 124 · 2024: 125 · 2023: 138 · 2022: 129 · 2021: 121 · 2020: 117 · 2019: 102 · 2018: 78 · 2017: 83 · 2016: 69 · 2015: 55 · 2014: 56 · 2013: 42 · 2012: 30
FWCI: 79.80
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Locations: Science (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Topics: Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
Keywords: CO2 emissions, climate change, fossil fuel combustion, cumulative emissions, atmospheric CO2 concentration, climate inertia, emission scenarios

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Future CO 2 Emissions and Climate Change from Existing Energy Infrastructure

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