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Future CO 2 Emissions and Climate Change from Existing Energy Infrastructure

Davis, Steven J., Caldeira, Ken, Matthews, H. Damon·2010·Science

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Abstract

What We're In For: What would our climate future look like if we stopped building any new infrastructure that used fossil fuels? Davis et al. (p. 1330 ; see the Perspective by Hoffert ) made the assumption that all existing infrastructure will be used until the end of its lifetime, after which it will be replaced by infrastructure that does not produce CO 2 . They then calculated the amount of additional CO 2 that will be added to the atmosphere. The outcome is that the concentration of atmospheric CO 2 would remain below 430 parts per million (ppm) (present levels are 390 ppm) and global mean temperatures would increase to 1.3°C above preindustrial values (about 0.5°C above present), well below current targets of 450 ppm and 2°C, respectively.

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“…a number of studies have appeared explaining how the excessive emission of CO2 from fossil fuels is contributing to important climatic and environmental changes, such as the increase in average global temperatures and sea levels (e.g., Davis et al., 2010; Lacis et al., 2010; Magnus et al., 2011).”
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Tang, Z., Xu, S., Yin, N., Yang, Y., Deng, Q., Shen, J., Zhang, X., Wang, T., He, H., Lin, X., et al. (2023) · Advanced Materials · doi:10.1002/adma.202210693 · Cited by 57
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“The greenhouse gases (GHG) produced by burning fossil fuels has been proven to be one of the leading cause of global warming [2].”
Background
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“…existing reserves must remain in the ground to preserve some semblance of climate stability (Aykut and Castro 2017; Bauer, Brecha, and Luderer 2012; Davis, Caldeira, and Matthews 2010; Meinshausen et al. 2009; Ekwurzel et al. 2017; Kartha 2016; McGlade and Ekins 2015; Muttitt 2016; Rogelj et al.…”
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Covalent Organic Framework Based Functional Materials: Important Catalysts for Efficient CO 2 Utilization
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Authors: Davis, S. J., Caldeira, K., & Matthews, H. D.
Affiliations: Carnegie Institution for Science (US)
Concordia University (CA)
Corresponding author: Davis, Steven J.
ORCID: Davis, Steven J.
Caldeira, Ken
Matthews, H. Damon
Venue: Science
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Published: 2010-09-10
Volume: 329
Issue: 5997
Pages: 1330-1333
ISSN: 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
1095-9203
DOI: 10.1126/science.1188566
OpenAlex: W2144603483
Cited by: 1,399
References: 22
Citations by year: 2026: 95 · 2025: 124 · 2024: 125 · 2023: 138 · 2022: 129 · 2021: 121 · 2020: 117 · 2019: 102 · 2018: 78 · 2017: 83 · 2016: 69 · 2015: 55 · 2014: 56 · 2013: 42 · 2012: 30
FWCI: 79.80
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Locations: Science (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Topics: Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
Keywords: CO2 emissions, climate change, fossil fuel combustion, cumulative emissions, atmospheric CO2 concentration, climate inertia, emission scenarios

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Future CO 2 Emissions and Climate Change from Existing Energy Infrastructure

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