Cited by 682Data Visualization and AnalyticsRisk Perception and ManagementClimate Change Communication and Perception

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Visualizing Uncertainty About the Future

Spiegelhalter, David, Pearson, Mike, Short, Ian·2011·Science

DOI 10.1126/science.1191181

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Abstract

We are all faced with uncertainty about the future, but we can get the measure of some uncertainties in terms of probabilities. Probabilities are notoriously difficult to communicate effectively to lay audiences, and in this review we examine current practice for communicating uncertainties visually, using examples drawn from sport, weather, climate, health, economics, and politics. Despite the burgeoning interest in infographics, there is limited experimental evidence on how different types of visualizations are processed and understood, although the effectiveness of some graphics clearly depends on the relative numeracy of an audience. Fortunately, it is increasingly easy to present data in the form of interactive visualizations and in multiple types of representation that can be adjusted to user needs and capabilities. Nonetheless, communicating deeper uncertainties resulting from incomplete or disputed knowledge--or from essential indeterminacy about the future--remains a challenge.

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Halpern, D., Lin, Q.-Y., Wang, R., Yang, S., Goldstein, S., & Kolak, M. A. (2021) · Cartography and Geographic Information Science · doi:10.1080/15230406.2021.1975311 · Cited by 14
“This work also highlights the complexities of communicating uncertainty from incomplete or disputed knowledge, a core challenge when planning for uncertain futures (Spiegelhalter et al., 2011).”
Background
Infographics Improve Comprehension and Recall at the Orthopaedic Journal Club.
Hughes, A., Mcquail, P., Keogh, P., & Synnott, K. (2020) · Journal of Surgical Education · doi:10.1016/j.jsurg.2020.10.012 · Cited by 14
Weather Literacy in Times of Climate Change
Fleischhut, N., Herzog, S. M., & Hertwig, R. (2020) · Weather Climate and Society · doi:10.1175/wcas-d-19-0043.1 · Cited by 27
“Yet despite concerns that probabilities can be difficult for laypeople to understand (Spiegelhalter et al. 2011), explanations of how they are to be interpreted are often lacking, insufficient, or even inconsistent within and across countries.”
Background
Decision Support Aids for Hip and Knee Osteoarthritis: Commentary on an article by Karen Sepucha, PhD, et al.: "Decision Support Strategies for Hip and Knee Osteoarthritis: Less Is More. A Randomized Comparative Effectiveness Trial (DECIDE-OA Study)".
Castañeda, P. (2019) · Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery. American volume · doi:10.2106/jbjs.19.00746 · Cited by 14
How different visualizations affect human reasoning about uncertainty: An analysis of visual behaviour
Reani, M., Peek, N., & Jay, C. (2019) · Computers in Human Behavior · doi:10.1016/j.chb.2018.10.033 · Cited by 14
Graphics for Uncertainty
BOWMAN, A. W. (2019) · Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (Statistics in Society) · doi:10.1111/rssa.12379 · Cited by 13
Monitoring Volatile Homicide Trends Across U.S. Cities
Wheeler, A. P., & Kovandzic, T. (2018) · Homicide Studies · doi:10.1177/1088767917740171 · Cited by 14
Decision Science Perspectives on Hurricane Vulnerability: Evidence from the 2010–2012 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons
Milch, K. F., Broad, K., Orlove, B., & Meyer, R. J. (2018) · Atmosphere · doi:10.3390/atmos9010032 · Cited by 20
“Further complicating storm preparation decisions is the challenge of visually communicating probabilistic storm information [34,35].”
Background
Perceptions of electricity-use communications: effects of information, format, and individual differences
Canfield, C., de Bruin, W. B., & Wong‐Parodi, G. (2017) · Journal of Risk Research · doi:10.1080/13669877.2015.1121909 · Cited by 14
Risk Perceptions in Diabetic Patients Who Have Experienced Adverse Events: Implications for Patient Involvement in Regulatory Decisions
Sachs, M. L., Sporrong, S. K., Colding‐Jørgensen, M., Frøkjær, S., Helboe, P., Jelic, K., & Kaae, S. S. (2017) · Pharmaceutical Medicine · doi:10.1007/s40290-017-0200-z · Cited by 15
Telecoupling visualizations through a network lens: a systematic review
Sonderegger, G., Oberlack, C., Llopis, J. C., Verburg, P. H., & Heinimann, A. (2020) · Ecology and Society · doi:10.5751/es-11830-250447 · Cited by 19
“This feature helps to address the needs of different users (Spiegelhalter et al. 2011).”
Background
A decision‐making experiment under wind power forecast uncertainty
Möhrlen, C., Bessa, R., & Fleischhut, N. (2022) · Meteorological Applications · doi:10.1002/met.2077 · Cited by 13
“, Joslyn & LeClerc, 2013), and how to best communicate uncertainty information transparently (Spiegelhalter et al., 2011).”
Background
Molecular marketing, personalised information and willingness‐to‐pay for functional foods: Vitamin D enriched eggs
Panzone, L., Garrod, G. D., Adinolfi, F., & Pasquale, J. D. (2022) · Journal of Agricultural Economics · doi:10.1111/1477-9552.12489 · Cited by 14
Verbal Descriptions of The Probability of Treatment Complications Lead to High Variability in Risk Perceptions: A Survey Study
Rosen, J., Agrawal, N., Flum, D., & Liao, J. M. (2021) · Annals of Surgery · doi:10.1097/sla.0000000000005255 · Cited by 13
Co-designing engaging and accessible data visualisations: a case study of the IPCC reports
Morelli, A., Johansen, T. G., Pidcock, R., Harold, J., Pirani, A., Gomis, M., Lorenzoni, I., Haughey, E., & Coventry, K. (2021) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-021-03171-4 · Cited by 13
Forecasting for a Fractured Land: A Case Study of the Communication and Use of Aftershock Forecasts from the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikōura Earthquake in Aotearoa New Zealand
Becker, J., Potter, S., Mcbride, S. K., Doyle, E. E. H., Gerstenberger, M., & Christophersen, A. (2020) · Seismological Research Letters · doi:10.1785/0220190354 · Cited by 13
Illustrating Cancer Risk: Patient Risk Communication Preferences and Interest regarding a Novel BRCA1/2 Genetic Risk Modifier Test
Hamilton, J. G., Garzon, M. G., Shah, I. H., Cadet, K., Shuk, E., Westerman, J. S., Hay, J. L., Offit, K., & Robson, M. E. (2020) · Public Health Genomics · doi:10.1159/000505854 · Cited by 16
Salience Versus Proportional Reasoning: Rethinking the Mechanism Behind Graphical Display Effects
Stone, E. R., Reeder, E. C., Parillo, J., Long, C., & Walb, L. (2018) · Journal of Behavioral Decision Making · doi:10.1002/bdm.2051 · Cited by 15
Distinguishing between model- and data-driven inferences for high reliability statistical predictions
Hund, L., Schroeder, B., Rumsey, K. N., & Huerta, G. (2018) · Reliability Engineering & System Safety · doi:10.1016/j.ress.2018.07.017 · Cited by 13
On the role of visualisation in fisheries management
Levontin, P., Baranowski, P., Leach, A., Bailey, A., Mumford, J., Quetglas, A., & Kell, L. (2017) · doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2017.01.018 · Cited by 13
“Innovation in the way information is communicated has 407 never been a more pressing need [1, 8, 18].”
BackgroundInfluential
Explanations and information-giving: clinician strategies used in talking to parents of preterm infants
Redshaw, M., & Harvey, M. (2016) · BMC Pediatrics · doi:10.1186/s12887-016-0561-6 · Cited by 13
“This suggests that consideration of other modes of communication, particularly visual graphical representation as a way of facilitating discussion and understanding could be worthwhile [22].”
Background
Quantifying and Communicating Uncertainty in Preclinical Human Dose‐Prediction
Sundqvist, M., Lundahl, A., Någård, M., Bredberg, U., & Gennemark, P. (2015) · CPT Pharmacometrics & Systems Pharmacology · doi:10.1002/psp4.32 · Cited by 14
“Communication by visualization is central in science to convey causal relationships, temporal trends, data, etc.(27) Successful communication depends on several factors(28):”
Background
Assessing the effectiveness of HIV/STI risk communication displays among Melbourne Sexual Health Centre attendees: a cross-sectional, observational and vignette-based study
Latt, P., Soe, N. N., Fairley, C., Xu, X.-H., King, A. J., Rahman, R., Ong, J., Phillips, T., & Zhang, L. (2024) · Sexually Transmitted Infections · doi:10.1136/sextrans-2023-055978 · Cited by 12
“13 18 26 We found a strong association between perceived risk and the intent to have HIV/STI testing.”
Background
Working with digital textbooks or printed materials: A study with boys and girls on conditional probability
Brnic, M., Greefrath, G., & Reinhold, F. (2024) · ZDM · doi:10.1007/s11858-023-01543-x · Cited by 19
Tangible Web: An Interactive Immersion Virtual Reality Creativity System that Travels Across Reality
Yang, S., Gao, Z., Mogavi, R. H., Hui, P., & Braud, T. (2023) · The Web Conference · doi:10.1145/3543507.3587432 · Cited by 12
“Interactive content promotes understanding by enabling users to actively explore information, which is more efective compared to traditional methods [18, 26, 27].”
Background
Brain networks under uncertainty: A coordinate-based meta-analysis of brain imaging studies.
Feng, S.-Q., Zhang, M., Peng, Y., Yang, S., Wang, Y.-F., Wu, X., & Zou, F. (2022) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2022.09.099 · Cited by 12
Investigating the presentation of uncertainty in an icon array: A randomized trial
Recchia, G., Lawrence, A. C. E., & Freeman, A. (2021) · PEC Innovation · doi:10.1016/j.pecinn.2021.100003 · Cited by 12
“Icon arrays have been developed using techniques such as partially filled icons[19] and icons that fade from one color to another[20], but comprehension of such representations has not been broadly empirically tested.”
Background
Cardiovascular disease risk communication in NHS Health Checks using QRISK®2 and JBS3 risk calculators: the RICO qualitative and quantitative study
Gidlow, C. J., Ellis, N., Cowap, L., Riley, V., Crone, D., Cottrell, E., Grogan, S., Chambers, R. M., & Clark-Carter, D. D. (2021) · Health Technology Assessment · doi:10.3310/hta25500 · Cited by 19
Introductory overview: Recommendations for approaching scientific visualization with large environmental datasets
Kelleher, C. A., & Braswell, A. (2021) · Environmental Modelling & Software · doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105113 · Cited by 30
Communicating Uncertainties About the Effects of Medical Interventions Using Different Display Formats
McDowell, M., & Kause, A. (2021) · Risk Analysis · doi:10.1111/risa.13739 · Cited by 12
The Mode Heuristic in Service Consumers’ Interpretations of Online Rating Distributions
Köcher, S., & Köcher, S. (2021) · Journal of Service Research · doi:10.1177/10946705211012475 · Cited by 14
Effective Uncertainty Visualization for Aftershock Forecast Maps
Schneider, M., Mcdowell, M., Guttorp, P., Steel, E., & Fleischhut, N. (2021) · Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences · doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8318 · Cited by 12
“We focus on representing the distribution’s spread rather than probability of exceedance because there has been less research on this way of communicating forecast uncertainty (Spiegelhalter et al., 2011) and it is of general interest to other natural hazard forecasts as well.”
BackgroundResultInfluential
Cartograms for Use in Forecasting Weather-Driven Natural Hazards
Pappenberger, F., Cloke, H., & Baugh, C. (2019) · The Cartographic Journal · doi:10.1080/00087041.2018.1534358 · Cited by 12
“…are very complex with many variables and timescales to display, usually involving data from probabilistic and/or multi-model forecasts (Demeritt et al., 2010; Ramos et al., 2010; Spiegelhalter et al., 2011; Cloke et al., 2013; Rautenhaus et al., 2015; Davis et al., 2016; Quinan and Meyer, 2016).”
Background
Response to Comment by Walker et al. on “From Data to Decisions: Processing Information, Biases, and Beliefs for Improved Management of Natural Resources and Environments”
Glynn, P. D., Voinov, A. A., Shapiro, C. D., & White, P. (2018) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1002/2018ef000819 · Cited by 13
“Even though we explicitly acknowledged the role of uncertainty, and brought in a number of references related to the topic (Brugnach et al., 2008; Kloprogge et al., 2007; Spiegelhalter et al., 2011; Tversky & Kahneman, 1974; Van der Sluijs et al., 2005), our paper emphasized other topics.”
Background
The response to receiving phenotypic and genetic coronary heart disease risk scores and lifestyle advice – a qualitative study
Shefer, G., Silarova, B., Usher-Smith, J., & Griffin, S. (2016) · BMC Public Health · doi:10.1186/s12889-016-3867-2 · Cited by 12
“Many of the challenges of understanding and interpreting risk scores have been reported previously [47, 48].”
Background
From marginal to simultaneous prediction intervals of wind power
Bessa, R. (2015) · International Symposium on Antennas and Propagation · doi:10.1109/isap.2015.7325536 · Cited by 12
“A general discussion about this topic can be found in [13] and [14].”
Background
Framing effects and risk perception: testing graphical representations of risk for the KIID
Stössel, R., & Meier, A. A. (2015) · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2606615 · Cited by 12

Authors: Spiegelhalter, D., Pearson, M., & Short, I.
Affiliations: University of Cambridge (GB)
The Open University (GB)
Corresponding author: Spiegelhalter, David
ORCID: Spiegelhalter, David
Pearson, Mike
Short, Ian
Venue: Science
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Published: 2011-09-09
Volume: 333
Issue: 6048
Pages: 1393-1400
ISSN: 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
1095-9203
DOI: 10.1126/science.1191181
OpenAlex: W2015011409
Cited by: 682
References: 0
Citations by year: 2026: 21 · 2025: 21 · 2024: 54 · 2023: 39 · 2022: 64 · 2021: 67 · 2020: 52 · 2019: 52 · 2018: 47 · 2017: 40 · 2016: 43 · 2015: 62 · 2014: 36 · 2013: 38 · 2012: 42
FWCI: 8.08
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Locations: Science (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Open Research Online (The Open University) (submittedVersion)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Computer Graphics and Computer-Aided Design › Data Visualization and Analytics
Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Risk Perception and Management
Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Climate Change Communication and Perception
Keywords: uncertainty communication, probability communication, infographics, interactive visualization, numeracy, lay audiences, future uncertainty, climate uncertainty, weather forecasting, health communication, economics communication, sport
MeSH terms: Computer Graphics, Data Display, Forecasting, Humans, Probability, Risk, Information Dissemination, Uncertainty

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Visualizing Uncertainty About the Future

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