Cited by 682Data Visualization and AnalyticsRisk Perception and ManagementClimate Change Communication and Perception

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Visualizing Uncertainty About the Future

Spiegelhalter, David, Pearson, Mike, Short, Ian·2011·Science

DOI 10.1126/science.1191181

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Abstract

We are all faced with uncertainty about the future, but we can get the measure of some uncertainties in terms of probabilities. Probabilities are notoriously difficult to communicate effectively to lay audiences, and in this review we examine current practice for communicating uncertainties visually, using examples drawn from sport, weather, climate, health, economics, and politics. Despite the burgeoning interest in infographics, there is limited experimental evidence on how different types of visualizations are processed and understood, although the effectiveness of some graphics clearly depends on the relative numeracy of an audience. Fortunately, it is increasingly easy to present data in the form of interactive visualizations and in multiple types of representation that can be adjusted to user needs and capabilities. Nonetheless, communicating deeper uncertainties resulting from incomplete or disputed knowledge--or from essential indeterminacy about the future--remains a challenge.

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“, there is little experimental evidence on how different types of visualisations are perceived (Spiegelhalter et al. 2011); despite that, they highlight the ease of improving understanding via interactive visualisations that can be adjusted by the user to best fit specific requirements.”
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“Proven as important among disciplines such as medicine (Ashby, 2006) or law (Lindsey et al., 2003), but also for lay-people (e.g., when using medical diagnostic self-tests), Bayesian reasoning is necessary within general society (Spiegelhalter et al., 2011).”
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Cómo Mejorar la Comprensión de los Riesgos Médicos en Personas Mayores
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Implementing patient and public involvement (PPI) in eye research: reflections from developing a research study on Geographic Atrophy treatment acceptability
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Election predictions in the news: how users perceive and respond to visual election forecasts
Witzenberger, B., & Diakopoulos, N. A. (2023) · Information Communication & Society · doi:10.1080/1369118x.2023.2230267 · Cited by 7
“This label was presented in a frequency format (e.g., 89 out of 100), which has been shown to make these figures easier to understand (Gigerenzer & Hoffrage, 1995; Spiegelhalter et al., 2011).”
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Consideration of sex/gender in publications of quantitative health-related research: Development and application of an assessment matrix
Horstmann, S., Hartig, C., Kraus, U., Palm, K., Jacke, K., Dandolo, L., Schneider, A. S., & Bolte, G. (2023) · Frontiers in Public Health · doi:10.3389/fpubh.2023.992557 · Cited by 5
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Incorporating financial toxicity considerations into clinical trial design to facilitate patient‐centered decision‐making in oncology
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Background

Authors: Spiegelhalter, D., Pearson, M., & Short, I.
Affiliations: University of Cambridge (GB)
The Open University (GB)
Corresponding author: Spiegelhalter, David
ORCID: Spiegelhalter, David
Pearson, Mike
Short, Ian
Venue: Science
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Published: 2011-09-09
Volume: 333
Issue: 6048
Pages: 1393-1400
ISSN: 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
1095-9203
DOI: 10.1126/science.1191181
OpenAlex: W2015011409
Cited by: 682
References: 0
Citations by year: 2026: 21 · 2025: 21 · 2024: 54 · 2023: 39 · 2022: 64 · 2021: 67 · 2020: 52 · 2019: 52 · 2018: 47 · 2017: 40 · 2016: 43 · 2015: 62 · 2014: 36 · 2013: 38 · 2012: 42
FWCI: 8.08
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Locations: Science (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Open Research Online (The Open University) (submittedVersion)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Computer Graphics and Computer-Aided Design › Data Visualization and Analytics
Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Risk Perception and Management
Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Climate Change Communication and Perception
Keywords: uncertainty communication, probability communication, infographics, interactive visualization, numeracy, lay audiences, future uncertainty, climate uncertainty, weather forecasting, health communication, economics communication, sport
MeSH terms: Computer Graphics, Data Display, Forecasting, Humans, Probability, Risk, Information Dissemination, Uncertainty

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Visualizing Uncertainty About the Future

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