Cited by 682Data Visualization and AnalyticsRisk Perception and ManagementClimate Change Communication and Perception

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Visualizing Uncertainty About the Future

Spiegelhalter, David, Pearson, Mike, Short, Ian·2011·Science

DOI 10.1126/science.1191181

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Abstract

We are all faced with uncertainty about the future, but we can get the measure of some uncertainties in terms of probabilities. Probabilities are notoriously difficult to communicate effectively to lay audiences, and in this review we examine current practice for communicating uncertainties visually, using examples drawn from sport, weather, climate, health, economics, and politics. Despite the burgeoning interest in infographics, there is limited experimental evidence on how different types of visualizations are processed and understood, although the effectiveness of some graphics clearly depends on the relative numeracy of an audience. Fortunately, it is increasingly easy to present data in the form of interactive visualizations and in multiple types of representation that can be adjusted to user needs and capabilities. Nonetheless, communicating deeper uncertainties resulting from incomplete or disputed knowledge--or from essential indeterminacy about the future--remains a challenge.

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“…(as opposed to purely description-based) representations (e.g., Kaufmann et al., 2013); (c) representations that avoid biasing framing effects (Spiegelhalter et al., 2011); (d) training in transforming opaque representations (e.g., single-event probabilities) into transparent ones (e.g.,…”
Background
Impact of residual risk messaging to reduce false reassurance following test-negative results from asymptomatic coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) testing: an online experimental study of a hypothetical test
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Communicating Data Uncertainty: Multi-Wave Experimental Evidence for UK GDP
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A qualitative study exploring risk perception in congenital cardiac surgery: the perspective of UK surgeons
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Perceptions, Uses, and Interpretations of Uncertainty in Current Weather Forecasts by Spanish Undergraduate Students
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Nuclear weapons risk communication: evaluating the impact of message exposure and format
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“Studies of communication have broadly found improved understanding and decision making when information is presented in graphic format (Spiegelhalter, Pearson, and Short 2011).”
Background
Frequency Formats: How Primary School Stochastics Profits From Cognitive Psychology
Till, C., & Sproesser, U. (2020) · Frontiers in Education · doi:10.3389/feduc.2020.00073 · Cited by 2
“The Role of Natural Frequencies in Human Comprehension of Situations of Uncertainty The way statistical or numerical information is communicated is deeply related to the processes of the human mind and its mechanisms (Gigerenzer and Hoffrage, 1995; Sedlmeier, 2001; Hoffrage et al., 2002; Spiegelhalter et al., 2011).”
Background
Crafting effective messages to enhance safe infant sleep
Middlemiss, W., Brownstein, N. C., Nelson, S., Manchiraju, S., Leddy, M., Steliotes, N., & Grzywacz, J. G. (2020) · Journal of the American Association of Nurse Practitioners · doi:10.1097/jxx.0000000000000365 · Cited by 2
Are we truly irrational and almost impossible to educate? Analyzing the scientific evidence behind libertine paternalism
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A Model for Determining What User Behavior to Strive for in Persuasive Technology
Heyman, S. (2013) · Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual Meeting · doi:10.1177/1541931213571411 · Cited by 2
JCGS@20, Visuals@40, Interface@45 & !!Challenges!!
Goodman, A. (2011) · doi:10.1198/jcgs.2011.204c · Cited by 2
“Finally, a summary of visual analytics specifications from Thomas and Cook (2005), which appeared in Goodman (2011a), completes the scenario.”
Background
Improving Understanding of Health-Relevant Numerical Information
Hoffrage, U., & García-Retamero, R. (2018) · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-92478-6_12 · Cited by 2
Using Statistics to Quantify and Communicate Uncertainty During Volcanic Crises
Sobradelo, R., & Martí, J. (2017) · Advances in volcanology · doi:10.1007/11157_2017_15 · Cited by 2
“Since 2011 it has been increasingly common to use graphics to represent probabilities in natural hazards (Kunz et al. 2011; Spiegelhalter et al. 2011; Stein and Geller 2012).”
Background
Testing forecast visualization designs for improving agricultural decision support products
Joshi, A., Sainjoo, S., Kennedy, J. A., & Kenney, M. A. (2026) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ae5aba · Cited by 1
“Clarity on what is being communicated, to whom, and for what purpose is important (Spiegelhalter et al 2011).”
The “bread and butter” of science: understanding how scientists communicate uncertainties
Roney, C., Egelhofer, J. L., & Lecheler, S. (2026) · Humanities and Social Sciences Communications · doi:10.1057/s41599-026-07026-0 · Cited by 1
“…perceived low numeracy and literacy in the public, mirroring prior research suggesting communicating technical uncertainties is problematic (see Spiegelhalter et al. 2011) to which computational and SSH participants offered a solution: share all materials contributing to the results and…”
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Chagumaira, C., Chimungu, J., Nalivata, P., Broadley, M., Milne, A., & Lark, R. (2025) · Geoscience Communication · doi:10.5194/gc-8-267-2025 · Cited by 1
Parents’ perspectives on the use of statistics to convey uncertainty in the NICU: a qualitative analysis
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“Many adults have dif ﬁ culty processing proportions (statistics, fractions, deci-mals) [16, 17].”
Predictive Data Stories: Characterizing a Nascent Data-Journalistic Genre
Denise Fechner, J., & Pentzold, C. (2025) · Digital Journalism · doi:10.1080/21670811.2025.2498975 · Cited by 1
““understanding and retention are promoted by interactive graphics because the user is encouraged to engage with the content actively rather than passively, which can also help to counteract differences in numeracy,” as Spiegelhalter, Pearson, and Short (2011, p. 1399) thus noted.”
Trade-offs associated with changing cropping patterns in semi-arid areas of Morocco
Fartassi, I. E., Milne, A. E., Oulaid, B., Bezrhoud, Y., Metcalfe, H., Chávez, V. A., Coleman, K., Diarra, A., Alami, R. E., Prout, J. M., et al. (2025) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179492 · Cited by 4
“These uncertainties must be clearly communicated to the end user to ensure that the results are interpreted appropriately and effectively (Chagumaira et al., 2022; Spiegelhalter et al., 2011).”
Communicating Probabilities of Cervical Cancer Screening Results with Icon Arrays or Tree Diagrams: A Longitudinal Experiment
Okan, Y., Stone, E. R., Petrova, D., & de Bruin, W. B. (2024) · Health Communication · doi:10.1080/10410236.2024.2421612 · Cited by 1
“Future research could also examine the effectiveness of hybrid designs that combine tree diagrams and icon arrays (e.g., Khan et al., 2015; Spiegelhalter et al., 2011).”
Deep mapping Uncertain Historical Sources
Li, W. (2024) · Journal for the History of Knowledge · doi:10.55283/jhk.13998 · Cited by 1
Vivifying Outbreaks: Investigating the Influence of a Forecast Visual on Risk Perceptions, Time-Urgency, and Behavioral Intentions
Smith, R. A., Su, Y.-Z., Yan, K.-T., & Shea, K. (2024) · Health Communication · doi:10.1080/10410236.2024.2395721 · Cited by 1
“Many scientific disciplines display quantitative information visually (Meloncon & Warner, 2017; Spiegelhalter et al., 2011).”
Genetic Interventions for Spinocerebellar Ataxia and Huntington’s Disease: A Qualitative Study of the Patient Perspective
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Who shows the Unlikelihood Effect – and why?
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Immersive Visualization of The Multifaceted Uncertainties of Hurricane Prediction Ensembles
Liu, L., Wang, L., Shrestha, J. R., Zhao, K., & Zhang, Y. (2023) · 2023 IEEE International Symposium on Mixed and Augmented Reality Adjunct (ISMAR-Adjunct) · doi:10.1109/ismar-adjunct60411.2023.00029 · Cited by 1
“Even though this visualization is most widely adopted by the general public and governmental ofﬁcials, much research conducted on its effectiveness has experimentally shown its intrinsic limitations [14].”
Background
The impact of age‐relevant and generic infographics on knowledge, attitudes and intention to attend cervical screening: A randomized controlled trial
Waite, F., Marlow, L., Nemec, M., & Waller, J. (2023) · British Journal of Health Psychology · doi:10.1111/bjhp.12695 · Cited by 1
“However, studies have shown that infographics can help to improve understanding of, and engagement with, health information such as probability messages (Hawley et al., 2008; McCrorie et al., 2016; Spiegelhalter et al., 2011).”
Background
Employing a Groundwater Contamination Learning Experience to Build Proficiency in Computational Modeling for Socioscientific Literacy
Covitt, B. A., Gunckel, K. L., Berkowitz, A. R., WOESSNER, W. W., & Moore, J. C. (2023) · Journal of Science Education and Technology · doi:10.1007/s10956-023-10062-z · Cited by 2
“Consideration of these different facets of the map highlights how abstracted representations that may seem straightforward to experts can pose significant sensemaking challenges for student learners (Arnold & Wade, 2017; Clark et al., 2008; Spiegelhalter et al., 2011; White & Forbes, 2023).”
Sensitivity Analysis of Pandemic Models Can Support Effective Policy Decisions
Borgonovo, E., Lu, X.-F., & Rabitti, G. (2022) · Journal of Computational And Graphical Statistics · doi:10.1080/10618600.2022.2126483 · Cited by 1
Ambiguity of Scientific Probability Predictions and Willingness-to-Pay for Climate Change Mitigation Policies
Watanabe, M., & Fujimi, T. (2022) · Research in Economics · doi:10.1016/j.rie.2022.09.007 · Cited by 1
Great future or greedy venture: Precision medicine needs philosophy
Jiao, F., Guo, R., Beckmann, J. S., Yan, Z., Yang, Y. P., Hu, J., Wang, X., & Xie, S. (2021) · Health Science Reports · doi:10.1002/hsr2.376 · Cited by 1
Reducing false reassurance following negative results from asymptomatic coronavirus (Covid-19) testing: an online experiment
Batteux, E., Bonfield, S., Jones, L., Carter, H., Gold, N., Amlȏt, R., Marteau, T. M., & Weston, D. (2021) · medRxiv · doi:10.1101/2021.08.03.21261482 · Cited by 1
Public trust, perceived accuracy, perceived likelihood, and concern on multi-model climate projections communicated with different formats
Fujimi, T., Watanabe, M., & Tatano, H. (2021) · Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change · doi:10.1007/s11027-021-09950-9 · Cited by 2
“The range format explicitly conveys scientific uncertainty, but it might lead the public to focus on only the best or worst projection (Spieglhalter et al. 2011).”
Background
Reframing (inner) terror: A digital discourse-based approach to evidential repositioning of reader reactions towards visual reframing
Domínguez-Romero, E. (2021) · El Profesional de la Informacion · doi:10.3145/epi.2020.nov.36 · Cited by 1
Big and Lean is Beautiful: A Conceptual Framework for Data-based Learning in Marketing Management
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Reasoning about socio-economic data: a visual analytics approach to Bayesian network
Chuprikova, E., & Meng, L. (2019) · International Journal of Cartography · doi:10.1080/23729333.2019.1613073 · Cited by 1
“Explanation of uncertainty is a signi ﬁ cant challenge where visualization is a prominent method to visually convey probabilities and frequencies to lay audiences (Spiegelhalter, Pearson, & Short, 2011).”
Method
Toward Visualizing Subjective Uncertainty: A Conceptual Framework Addressing Perceived Uncertainty through Action Redundancy
Li, W., Funk, M., & Brombacher, A. (2018) · EuroRV³@EuroVis · doi:10.2312/eurorv3.20181144 · Cited by 1
Warum ist 1 von 2 wahrscheinlicher als 2 von 9
Till, C. (2015) · doi:10.1024/2235-0977/a000100 · Cited by 1
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Bian, A. L. L. (2015) · doi:10.70675/dddf046fz058fz4716z9c44zdafd4ab3127b · Cited by 1
Collecting Statistical Methods for the Analysis of Climate Data as Service for Adaptation Projects
Hennemuth, B., Bender, S., Bülow, K., Dreier, N., Hoffmann, P., Keup-Thiel, E., & Mudersbach, C. (2015) · doi:10.4236/ajcc.2015.41002 · Cited by 1
“Several examples are shown in [28].”

Authors: Spiegelhalter, D., Pearson, M., & Short, I.
Affiliations: University of Cambridge (GB)
The Open University (GB)
Corresponding author: Spiegelhalter, David
ORCID: Spiegelhalter, David
Pearson, Mike
Short, Ian
Venue: Science
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Published: 2011-09-09
Volume: 333
Issue: 6048
Pages: 1393-1400
ISSN: 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
1095-9203
DOI: 10.1126/science.1191181
OpenAlex: W2015011409
Cited by: 682
References: 0
Citations by year: 2026: 21 · 2025: 21 · 2024: 54 · 2023: 39 · 2022: 64 · 2021: 67 · 2020: 52 · 2019: 52 · 2018: 47 · 2017: 40 · 2016: 43 · 2015: 62 · 2014: 36 · 2013: 38 · 2012: 42
FWCI: 8.08
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Locations: Science (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Open Research Online (The Open University) (submittedVersion)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Computer Graphics and Computer-Aided Design › Data Visualization and Analytics
Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Risk Perception and Management
Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Climate Change Communication and Perception
Keywords: uncertainty communication, probability communication, infographics, interactive visualization, numeracy, lay audiences, future uncertainty, climate uncertainty, weather forecasting, health communication, economics communication, sport
MeSH terms: Computer Graphics, Data Display, Forecasting, Humans, Probability, Risk, Information Dissemination, Uncertainty

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Visualizing Uncertainty About the Future

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