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Visualizing Uncertainty About the Future
Abstract
We are all faced with uncertainty about the future, but we can get the measure of some uncertainties in terms of probabilities. Probabilities are notoriously difficult to communicate effectively to lay audiences, and in this review we examine current practice for communicating uncertainties visually, using examples drawn from sport, weather, climate, health, economics, and politics. Despite the burgeoning interest in infographics, there is limited experimental evidence on how different types of visualizations are processed and understood, although the effectiveness of some graphics clearly depends on the relative numeracy of an audience. Fortunately, it is increasingly easy to present data in the form of interactive visualizations and in multiple types of representation that can be adjusted to user needs and capabilities. Nonetheless, communicating deeper uncertainties resulting from incomplete or disputed knowledge--or from essential indeterminacy about the future--remains a challenge.
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“First, to overcome the adverse effect of denominator neglect, it is important to present ratios with the same denominator so that they can be compared with just the numerator [116].”
From Uncertainty as a Form of Transparency: Measuring, Communicating, and Using Uncertainty (2021) · cites this paper as [116]
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Metadata
- Authors
- Spiegelhalter, D., Pearson, M., & Short, I.
- Affiliations
- University of Cambridge (GB)
- The Open University (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Spiegelhalter, David
- Venue
- Science
- Published
- 2011-09-09
- Volume
- 333
- Issue
- 6048
- Pages
- 1393-1400
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9203
- OpenAlex
- W2015011409
- Cited by
- 682
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 21 · 2025: 21 · 2024: 54 · 2023: 39 · 2022: 64 · 2021: 67 · 2020: 52 · 2019: 52 · 2018: 47 · 2017: 40 · 2016: 43 · 2015: 62 · 2014: 36 · 2013: 38 · 2012: 42
- FWCI
- 8.08
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Science (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Open Research Online (The Open University) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Computer Graphics and Computer-Aided Design › Data Visualization and Analytics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Risk Perception and Management
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Climate Change Communication and Perception
- Keywords
- uncertainty communication, probability communication, infographics, interactive visualization, numeracy, lay audiences, future uncertainty, climate uncertainty, weather forecasting, health communication, economics communication, sport
- MeSH terms
- Computer Graphics, Data Display, Forecasting, Humans, Probability, Risk, Information Dissemination, Uncertainty
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