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Prophylaxis against covid-19: living systematic review and network meta-analysis
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Abstract
Updates: This is the second version (first update) of the living systematic review, replacing the previous version (available as a data supplement). When citing this paper please consider adding the version number and date of access for clarity. Objective: To determine and compare the effects of drug prophylaxis on severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19). Design: Living systematic review and network meta-analysis (NMA). Data sources: WHO covid-19 database, a comprehensive multilingual source of global covid-19 literature to 4 March 2022. Study selection: Randomised trials in which people at risk of covid-19 were allocated to prophylaxis or no prophylaxis (standard care or placebo). Pairs of reviewers independently screened potentially eligible articles. Methods: After duplicate data abstraction, we conducted random-effects bayesian network meta-analysis. We assessed risk of bias of the included studies using a modification of the Cochrane risk of bias 2.0 tool and assessed the certainty of the evidence using the grading of recommendations assessment, development and evaluation (GRADE) approach. Results: The second iteration of this living NMA includes 32 randomised trials which enrolled 25 147 participants and addressed 21 different prophylactic drugs; adding 21 trials (66%), 18 162 participants (75%) and 16 (76%) prophylactic drugs. Of the 16 prophylactic drugs analysed, none provided convincing evidence of a reduction in the risk of laboratory confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. For admission to hospital and mortality outcomes, no prophylactic drug proved different than standard care or placebo. Hydroxychloroquine and vitamin C combined with zinc probably increase the risk of adverse effects leading to drug discontinuation—risk difference for hydroxychloroquine (RD) 6 more per 1000 (95% credible interval (CrI) 2 more to 10 more); for vitamin C combined with zinc, RD 69 more per 1000 (47 more to 90 more), moderate certainty evidence. Conclusion: Much of the evidence remains very low certainty and we therefore anticipate future studies evaluating drugs for prophylaxis may change the results for SARS-CoV-2 infection, admission to hospital and mortality outcomes. Both hydroxychloroquine and vitamin C combined with zinc probably increase adverse effects. Systematic review registration: This review was not registered. The protocol established a priori is included as a supplement. Funding: This study was supported by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (grant CIHR-IRSC:0579001321).
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“Our thresholds for beneficial and harmful effects were informed by surveys of the coauthors in the parallel living SRNMAs.17–19”
From Consistency of covid-19 trial preprints with published reports and impact for decision making: retrospective review (2022) · cites this paper as [19]
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Self-citation
Metadata
- Authors
- Bartoszko, J. J., Siemieniuk, R. A., Kum, E., Qasim, A., Zeraatkar, D., Martinez, J. P. D., Azab, M., Ibrahim, S., Izcovich, A., Soto, G. B., Roldan, Y., Agarwal, A., Agoritsas, T., Chu, D. K., Couban, R., Devji, T., Foroutan, F., Ghadimi, M., Honarmand, K., Khamis, A., Lamontagne, F., Loeb, M., McLeod, S. L., Motaghi, S., Murthy, S., Mustafa, R. A., Rochwerg, B., Switzer, C., Thabane, L., Vandvik, P. O., Vernooij, R. W., Wang, Y., Yao, L., Guyatt, G. H., & Brignardello-Petersen, R.
- Affiliations
- McMaster University (CA)
- Hospital Alemán (AR)
- University of Toronto (CA)
- University Hospital of Geneva (CH)
- Western University (CA)
- Hull York Medical School (GB)
- University of British Columbia (CA)
- University of Oslo (NO)
- Utrecht University (NL)
- ORCID
- Venue
- BMJ
- Publisher
- BMJ
- Published
- 2021-04-26
- Volume
- 373
- Pages
- n949
- ISSN
- 1756-1833 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC8073806
- OpenAlex
- W3158131439
- Cited by
- 113
- References
- 84
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 10 · 2023: 25 · 2022: 40 · 2021: 28
- FWCI
- 3.01
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- www.bmj.com/company/legal-information/terms-conditions/legal-information/tdm-licencepolicy (tdm)
- Locations
- BMJ (publishedVersion)
- medRxiv (acceptedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Archive ouverte UNIGE (University of Geneva) (publishedVersion, other-oa)
- cIRcle (University of British Columbia) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- Lanzhou University Institutional Repository (submittedVersion)
- Utrecht University Repository (Utrecht University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- MacSphere (McMaster University) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- Funders
- Canadian Allergy, Asthma and Immunology Foundation
- American Academy of Allergy, Asthma and Immunology Foundation
- Canadian Institutes of Health Research (174897_1, 174897)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › COVID-19 Clinical Research Studies
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Keywords
- COVID-19 prevention, COVID-19 pandemic, preventive medication, hydroxychloroquine, adverse drug reactions, hospitalization, mortality, drug discontinuation, quality of evidence, risk of bias assessment, GRADE, antiviral agents, antimalarial drugs
- MeSH terms
- COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Anti-Infective Agents, Carrageenan, Humans, Hydroxychloroquine, Ivermectin, Global Health, Treatment Outcome, Chemoprevention, Uncertainty
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