Drug treatments for covid-19: living systematic review and network meta-analysis
Open accessAbstract
Objective: To compare the effects of treatments for coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19). Design: Living systematic review and network meta-analysis. Data sources: WHO covid-19 database, a comprehensive multilingual source of global covid-19 literature, up to 3 December 2021 and six additional Chinese databases up to 20 February 2021. Studies identified as of 1 December 2021 were included in the analysis. Study selection: Randomised clinical trials in which people with suspected, probable, or confirmed covid-19 were randomised to drug treatment or to standard care or placebo. Pairs of reviewers independently screened potentially eligible articles. Methods: After duplicate data abstraction, a bayesian network meta-analysis was conducted. Risk of bias of the included studies was assessed using a modification of the Cochrane risk of bias 2.0 tool, and the certainty of the evidence using the grading of recommendations assessment, development, and evaluation (GRADE) approach. For each outcome, interventions were classified in groups from the most to the least beneficial or harmful following GRADE guidance. Results: 463 trials enrolling 166 581 patients were included; 267 (57.7%) trials and 89 814 (53.9%) patients are new from the previous iteration; 265 (57.2%) trials evaluating treatments with at least 100 patients or 20 events met the threshold for inclusion in the analyses. Compared with standard care, three drugs reduced mortality in patients with mostly severe disease with at least moderate certainty: systemic corticosteroids (risk difference 23 fewer per 1000 patients, 95% credible interval 40 fewer to 7 fewer, moderate certainty), interleukin-6 receptor antagonists when given with corticosteroids (23 fewer per 1000, 36 fewer to 7 fewer, moderate certainty), and Janus kinase inhibitors (44 fewer per 1000, 64 fewer to 20 fewer, high certainty). Compared with standard care, two drugs probably reduce hospital admission in patients with non-severe disease: nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (36 fewer per 1000, 41 fewer to 26 fewer, moderate certainty) and molnupiravir (19 fewer per 1000, 29 fewer to 5 fewer, moderate certainty). Remdesivir may reduce hospital admission (29 fewer per 1000, 40 fewer to 6 fewer, low certainty). Only molnupiravir had at least moderate quality evidence of a reduction in time to symptom resolution (3.3 days fewer, 4.8 fewer to 1.6 fewer, moderate certainty); several others showed a possible benefit. Several drugs may increase the risk of adverse effects leading to drug discontinuation; hydroxychloroquine probably increases the risk of mechanical ventilation (moderate certainty). Conclusion: Corticosteroids, interleukin-6 receptor antagonists, and Janus kinase inhibitors probably reduce mortality and confer other important benefits in patients with severe covid-19. Molnupiravir and nirmatrelvir/ritonavir probably reduce admission to hospital in patients with non-severe covid-19. Systematic review registration: This review was not registered. The protocol is publicly available in the supplementary material. Readers’ note: This article is a living systematic review that will be updated to reflect emerging evidence. Updates may occur for up to two years from the date of original publication. This is the fifth version of the original article published on 30 July 2020 ( BMJ 2020;370:m2980), and previous versions can be found as data supplements. When citing this paper please consider adding the version number and date of access for clarity.
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Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
This fifth version of a living systematic review and Bayesian network meta-analysis included 463 randomized trials (166,581 patients) of drug treatments for covid-19. It found that systemic corticosteroids, IL-6 receptor antagonists with corticosteroids, and Janus kinase inhibitors probably reduce mortality in severe covid-19, while molnupiravir and nirmatrelvir/ritonavir probably reduce hospital admission in non-severe covid-19.
Key findings
- In patients with mostly severe disease, compared with standard care, mortality was reduced by systemic corticosteroids (risk difference 23 fewer per 1000, 95% CrI 40 fewer to 7 fewer; moderate certainty), IL-6 receptor antagonists given with corticosteroids (23 fewer per 1000, 36 fewer to 7 fewer; moderate certainty), and Janus kinase inhibitors (44 fewer per 1000, 64 fewer to 20 fewer; high certainty).
- In non-severe disease, compared with standard care, hospital admission was probably reduced by nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (36 fewer per 1000, 41 fewer to 26 fewer; moderate certainty) and molnupiravir (19 fewer per 1000, 29 fewer to 5 fewer; moderate certainty); remdesivir may reduce admission (29 fewer per 1000, 40 fewer to 6 fewer; low certainty). Only molnupiravir had at least moderate-quality evidence of reduced time to symptom resolution (3.3 days fewer, 4.8 fewer to 1.6 fewer; moderate certainty).
- Other benefits: Janus kinase inhibitors probably reduce duration of mechanical ventilation (−3.2 days, −5.9 to −0.5; high certainty); IL-6 receptor antagonists with corticosteroids reduce length of hospital stay (−4.7 days, −8.9 to −0.5; moderate certainty), as do Janus kinase inhibitors (−1.1 days, −1.9 to −0.4; moderate certainty). Full-dose anticoagulation may reduce venous thromboembolism (OR 0.50, 0.32 to 0.78; low certainty) but may increase clinically important bleeding (OR 2.15, 1.35 to 3.52; low certainty).
- Adverse effects leading to discontinuation were increased by hydroxychloroquine (13 more per 1000, 2 more to 24 more; low certainty), lopinavir-ritonavir (49 more per 1000, 27 more to 72 more; moderate certainty), and tyrosine kinase inhibitors (62 more per 1000, 19 more to 105 more; moderate certainty). Hydroxychloroquine probably increases mechanical ventilation (moderate certainty). Several interventions showed no important benefit on patient-important outcomes, including ACE inhibitors, aspirin, azithromycin, colchicine, hydroxychloroquine, inhaled corticosteroids, intranasal corticosteroids, interferon beta, ivermectin, lopinavir-ritonavir, umifenovir, and vitamin C.
Methods
- Living systematic review and Bayesian network meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials in people with suspected, probable, or confirmed covid-19, comparing drug treatments with one another or with no intervention, placebo, or standard care; no restrictions by language, publication status, illness severity, or setting. Excluded vaccination, blood products/antibody-based antivirals, nutrition, traditional Chinese herbal/alternative medicines, and non-drug supportive care.
- Searched WHO covid-19 database up to 3 December 2021 and six Chinese databases up to 20 February 2021; included 463 trials enrolling 166,581 patients; 265 trials evaluating treatments with at least 100 patients or 20 events met the threshold for inclusion in analyses.
- Used random-effects Bayesian network meta-analysis with odds ratios or mean differences and 95% credible intervals; assessed risk of bias with a modification of Cochrane RoB 2.0 and certainty with GRADE; calculated absolute effects using baseline risks from observational data and standard-care medians; assessed incoherence with node-splitting models and performed subgroup/sensitivity analyses.
Limitations
- Paper-stated: the primary limitation for most interventions was lack of blinding, which might introduce bias through differences in co-interventions; unblinded standard care and placebo groups were combined in the same node, so co-interventions may have differed systematically. Reporting concerns and inconsistent outcome measurement across studies were also noted.
- Paper-stated: the living nature could temporarily amplify publication bias, though inclusion of preprints with negative results might reduce this; preprints may introduce bias from errors and reporting limitations. Sparse data produced uninformative or implausible estimates, so only treatments with at least 100 patients or 20 events were reported; observational data used for some absolute risk estimates can affect GRADE imprecision. The review was not registered (abstract states), though the protocol is publicly available.
- Evident from text: network meta-analysis assumes transitivity; no statistical incoherence was detected, but excluded trials (same treatment node, different doses/durations, insufficient data, or no outcomes of interest) and sparse nodes limit inference. This is the final version of this particular living review, with future separate reviews planned for non-severe and severe covid-19.
Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.
Integrity signals
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Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
0 of 14 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged
- Findingown data
Lopinavir-ritonavir does not suggest benefit for mortality (odds ratio 1.06, 95% credible interval 0.88 to 1.28; low certainty).
“lopinavir-ritonavir (1.06, 0.88 to 1.28; low certainty)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Interleukin-6 receptor antagonists when given with corticosteroids reduce mortality compared with standard care (23 fewer per 1000, 36 fewer to 7 fewer, moderate certainty).
“interleukin-6 receptor antagonists when given with corticosteroids (23 fewer per 1000, 36 fewer to 7 fewer, moderate certainty)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Baseline risks for outcomes derived from observational data are representative of the usual care groups in the included randomised trials.
- Findingown data
Hydroxychloroquine does not suggest benefit for mortality (odds ratio 1.08, 95% credible interval 0.92 to 1.27; moderate certainty).
“hydroxychloroquine (1.08, 0.92 to 1.27; moderate certainty)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
121 studies were judged at low risk of bias in all domains for at least one outcome.
“121 studies were judged at low risk of bias in all domains for at least one outcome.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
265 (57.2%) trials evaluating treatments with at least 100 patients or 20 events met the threshold for inclusion in the analyses.
“265 (57.2%) trials evaluating treatments with at least 100 patients or 20 events met the threshold for inclusion in the analyses”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
- Findingown data
Full-dose anticoagulation does not suggest benefit for mortality (odds ratio 0.96, 95% credible interval 0.78 to 1.16; low certainty).
“full-dose anticoagulation (0.96, 0.78 to 1.16; low certainty)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Aspirin does not suggest benefit for mortality (odds ratio 0.93, 95% credible interval 0.69 to 1.20; low certainty).
“aspirin (0.93, 0.69 to 1.20; low certainty)”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Janus kinase inhibitors reduce mortality compared with standard care (44 fewer per 1000, 64 fewer to 20 fewer, high certainty).
“Janus kinase inhibitors (44 fewer per 1000, 64 fewer to 20 fewer, high certainty)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Baseline risks for outcomes derived from observational data are representative of the usual care groups in the included randomised trials.
- Findingown data
Interleukin-6 receptor antagonists without concurrent corticosteroids do not suggest benefit for mortality (odds ratio 1.09, 95% credible interval 0.91 to 1.31; moderate certainty).
“interleukin-6 receptor antagonists without concurrent corticosteroids (1.09, 0.91 to 1.31; moderate certainty)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Remdesivir does not suggest benefit for mortality (odds ratio 0.91, 95% credible interval 0.73 to 1.11; low certainty).
“remdesivir (odds ratio 0.91, 0.73 to 1.11; low certainty)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Hydroxychloroquine has a high risk of adverse effects leading to discontinuation (13 more per 1000, 2 more to 24 more; low certainty).
“hydroxychloroquine (13 more per 1000, 2 more to 24 more; low certainty)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Corticosteroids may reduce risk of mechanical ventilation compared with standard care (odds ratio 0.79, 95% credible interval 0.58 to 1.05; low certainty).
“corticosteroids (odds ratio 0.79, 0.58 to 1.05; low certainty)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Systemic corticosteroids probably reduce mortality in patients with severe covid-19 (odds ratio 0.80, 95% credible interval 0.65 to 0.94; moderate certainty).
“Interventions with at least moderate certainty of benefit included: systemic corticosteroids (odds ratio 0.80, 95% credible interval 0.65 to 0.94; moderate certainty)”
- Also stated in: § Discussion · hedged
“For patients with severe covid-19, three anti-inflammatory drugs probably reduce mortality: systemic corticosteroids, interleukin-6 receptor antagonists (when given with systemic corticosteroids), and Janus kinase inhibitors.”
- Also stated in: § Conclusions · hedged
“Evidence from this living systematic review and network meta-analysis suggests that systemic corticosteroids, interleukin-6 receptor antagonists, and Janus kinase inhibitors reduce mortality and have other important benefits in patients with severe covid-19.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Discussion · hedged
- Findingown data
Janus kinase inhibitors probably reduce mortality in patients with severe covid-19 (odds ratio 0.63, 95% credible interval 0.47 to 0.83; high certainty).
“Janus kinase inhibitors (0.63, 0.47 to 0.83; high certainty)”
- Also stated in: § Discussion · hedged
“For patients with severe covid-19, three anti-inflammatory drugs probably reduce mortality: systemic corticosteroids, interleukin-6 receptor antagonists (when given with systemic corticosteroids), and Janus kinase inhibitors.”
- Also stated in: § Discussion · hedged
“Additional evidence for Janus kinase inhibitors suggests that they probably reduce mortality in patients with severe covid-19”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Discussion · hedged
- Findingown data
Molnupiravir reduces time to symptom resolution (3.3 days fewer, 4.8 fewer to 1.6 fewer, moderate certainty).
“Only molnupiravir had at least moderate quality evidence of a reduction in time to symptom resolution (3.3 days fewer, 4.8 fewer to 1.6 fewer, moderate certainty)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Baseline risks for outcomes derived from observational data are representative of the usual care groups in the included randomised trials.
- Findingown data
Azithromycin does not suggest benefit for mortality (odds ratio 0.98, 95% credible interval 0.78 to 1.25; low certainty).
“azithromycin (0.98, 0.78 to 1.25, low certainty)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Ivermectin does not suggest benefit for mortality (odds ratio 0.63, 95% credible interval 0.37 to 1.05; low certainty).
“ivermectin (0.63, 0.37 to 1.05; low certainty)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Hydroxychloroquine probably increases the risk of mechanical ventilation (moderate certainty).
“hydroxychloroquine probably increases the risk of mechanical ventilation (moderate certainty)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Baseline risks for outcomes derived from observational data are representative of the usual care groups in the included randomised trials.
- Findingown data
Remdesivir may reduce hospital admission compared with standard care (29 fewer per 1000, 40 fewer to 6 fewer, low certainty).
“Remdesivir may reduce hospital admission (29 fewer per 1000, 40 fewer to 6 fewer, low certainty)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Baseline risks for outcomes derived from observational data are representative of the usual care groups in the included randomised trials.
- Findingown data
Interleukin-6 receptor antagonists when given with systemic corticosteroids probably reduce mortality in patients with severe covid-19 (odds ratio 0.80, 95% credible interval 0.69 to 0.94; moderate certainty).
“interleukin-6 receptor antagonists when given with systemic corticosteroids (0.80, 0.69 to 0.94; moderate certainty)”
- Also stated in: § Discussion · hedged
“For patients with severe covid-19, three anti-inflammatory drugs probably reduce mortality: systemic corticosteroids, interleukin-6 receptor antagonists (when given with systemic corticosteroids), and Janus kinase inhibitors.”
- Also stated in: § Conclusions · hedged
“Evidence from this living systematic review and network meta-analysis suggests that systemic corticosteroids, interleukin-6 receptor antagonists, and Janus kinase inhibitors reduce mortality and have other important benefits in patients with severe covid-19.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Discussion · hedged
- Findingown data
Systemic corticosteroids reduce mortality compared with standard care in patients with mostly severe covid-19 (risk difference 23 fewer per 1000, 95% CrI 40 fewer to 7 fewer, moderate certainty).
“systemic corticosteroids (risk difference 23 fewer per 1000 patients, 95% credible interval 40 fewer to 7 fewer, moderate certainty)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Baseline risks for outcomes derived from observational data are representative of the usual care groups in the included randomised trials.
- Findingown data
463 trials enrolling 166,581 patients were included in the review.
“463 trials enrolling 166 581 patients were included”
- Also stated in: § Results · plain
“After screening 79 601 titles and abstracts and 1438 full texts, 463 unique randomised trials were identified that evaluated drug treatments as of 3 December 2021”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Results · plain
- Findingown data
Remdesivir may reduce risk of mechanical ventilation compared with standard care (odds ratio 0.79, 95% credible interval 0.60 to 1.01; low certainty).
“remdesivir (0.79, 0.60 to 1.01; low certainty)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Interleukin-6 receptor antagonists without corticosteroids reduce risk of mechanical ventilation compared with standard care (odds ratio 0.58, 95% credible interval 0.35 to 0.97; high certainty).
“interleukin-6 receptor antagonists without corticosteroids (0.58, 0.35 to 0.97; high certainty)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Nirmatrelvir/ritonavir probably reduces hospital admission compared with standard care in patients with non-severe covid-19 (36 fewer per 1000, 41 fewer to 26 fewer, moderate certainty).
“nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (36 fewer per 1000, 41 fewer to 26 fewer, moderate certainty)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Baseline risks for outcomes derived from observational data are representative of the usual care groups in the included randomised trials.
- Findingown data
Two hundred and sixty seven trials with 138,345 participants met the threshold of analysing treatments with a minimum of 100 patients or 20 events and were included in the network meta-analysis for mortality.
“Two hundred and sixty seven trials with 138 345 participants met the threshold of analysing treatments with a minimum of 100 patients or 20 events and were included in the network meta-analysis”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Janus kinase inhibitors may reduce risk of mechanical ventilation compared with standard care (odds ratio 0.78, 95% credible interval 0.56 to 1.04; moderate certainty).
“Janus kinase inhibitors (0.78, 0.56 to 1.04; moderate certainty)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Interleukin-6 receptor antagonists with systemic corticosteroids reduce risk of mechanical ventilation compared with standard care (odds ratio 0.79, 95% credible interval 0.63 to 0.98; moderate certainty).
“interleukin 6 receptor antagonists when given with systemic corticosteroids (0.79, 0.63 to 0.98; moderate certainty)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Fluvoxamine does not suggest benefit for mortality (odds ratio 0.68, 95% credible interval 0.33 to 1.32; low certainty).
“fluvoxamine (0.68, 0.33 to 1.32; low certainty)”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Molnupiravir probably reduces hospital admission compared with standard care in patients with non-severe covid-19 (19 fewer per 1000, 29 fewer to 5 fewer, moderate certainty).
“molnupiravir (19 fewer per 1000, 29 fewer to 5 fewer, moderate certainty)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Baseline risks for outcomes derived from observational data are representative of the usual care groups in the included randomised trials.
- Findingown data
Colchicine does not suggest benefit for mortality (odds ratio 0.93, 95% credible interval 0.65 to 1.16; low certainty).
“colchicine (0.93, 0.65 to 1.16; low certainty)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Of the trials with publicly accessible protocols or registrations, 79 reported results for one or more of our outcomes of interest that were not prespecified in protocols or registrations.
“Of the trials with publicly accessible protocols or registrations, 79 reported results for one or more of our outcomes of interest that were not prespecified in protocols or registrations.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Lopinavir-ritonavir has a high risk of adverse effects leading to discontinuation (49 more per 1000, 27 more to 72 more; moderate certainty).
“lopinavir-ritonavir (49 more per 1000, 27 more to 72 more; moderate certainty)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Full dose anticoagulation may increase odds of clinically important bleeding compared with prophylactic dose anticoagulation (odds ratio 2.15, 95% credible interval 1.35 to 3.52; low certainty).
“Full dose anticoagulation may increase the odds of clinically important bleeding compared with prophylactic dose anticoagulation (odds ratio 2.15, 1.35 to 3.52; low certainty).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Interleukin-6 receptor antagonists with systemic corticosteroids reduce length of hospital stay compared with standard care (mean difference −4.7 days, 95% credible interval −8.9 to −0.5; moderate certainty).
“hospitalisation was shorter in patients who received interleukin-6 receptor antagonists with systemic corticosteroids (mean difference −4.7 days, −8.9 to −0.5; moderate certainty)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
No other intervention had at least moderate certainty evidence of benefit or harm for time to symptom resolution.
“No other intervention had at least moderate certainty evidence of benefit or harm (fig 2).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
There did not seem to be a difference in other outcomes such as mortality or mechanical ventilation for full dose anticoagulation compared with prophylactic dose anticoagulation.
“There did not seem to be a difference in other outcomes such as mortality or mechanical ventilation.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingnone given
Several interventions do not seem to have important benefit on any patient-important outcomes, including angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, aspirin, azithromycin, colchicine, hydroxychloroquine, inhaled corticosteroids, intranasal corticosteroids, interferon beta, ivermectin, lopinavir-ritonavir, umifenovir, and vitamin C.
“Several interventions do not seem to have important benefit on any patient-important outcomes, including angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, aspirin, azithromycin, colchicine, hydroxychloroquine, inhaled corticosteroids, intranasal corticosteroids, interferon beta, ivermectin, lopinavir-ritonavir, umifenovir, and vitamin C.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingnone given
For some outcomes, the method in which the researchers measured and reported outcomes proved inconsistent across studies.
“For some outcomes, the method in which the researchers measured and reported outcomes proved inconsistent across studies.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Full dose anticoagulation may reduce odds of venous thromboembolism compared with prophylactic dose anticoagulation (odds ratio 0.50, 95% credible interval 0.32 to 0.78; low certainty).
“Full dose anticoagulation may reduce odds of venous thromboembolism compared with prophylactic dose anticoagulation (odds ratio 0.50, 0.32 to 0.78; low certainty).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingnone given
Two hundred and sixty seven trials and 89 814 participants are new from the previous iteration.
“Two hundred and sixty seven trials and 89 814 participants are new from the previous iteration”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Additional evidence suggests that colchicine probably does not have any important benefit (the previous iteration suggested that it might).
“Additional evidence suggests that colchicine probably does not have any important benefit (the previous iteration suggested that it might)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Evidence was low or very low certainty for all other interventions for length of hospital stay.
“Evidence was low or very low certainty for all other interventions (fig 2).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Janus kinase inhibitors probably reduce duration of mechanical ventilation (−3.2 days, 95% credible interval −5.9 to −0.5; high certainty).
“Janus kinase inhibitors probably reduce the duration of mechanical ventilation (−3.2 days, −5.9 to −0.5; high certainty).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Hydroxychloroquine may increase length of hospital stay.
“Hydroxychloroquine may increase the risk of mechanical ventilation, adverse effects leading to drug discontinuation, and length of hospital stay.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingnone given
The certainty of the evidence for most interventions is low or very low, including ivermectin.
“The certainty of the evidence for most interventions is low or very low, including ivermectin”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Tyrosine kinase inhibitors have a high risk of adverse effects leading to discontinuation (62 more per 1000, 19 more to 105 more; moderate certainty).
“tyrosine kinase inhibitors (62 more per 1000, 19 more to 105 more; moderate certainty)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
There was insufficient evidence to know if any other interventions reduce hospitalisation.
“There was insufficient evidence to know if any other interventions reduce hospitalisation (fig 2).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingcitation
So far, differences between preprints and peer reviewed publications have mostly been limited to additional baseline patient information, clarification on study design, and outcomes reported in the peer reviewed publications.
“So far, differences between preprints and peer reviewed publications have mostly been limited to additional baseline patient information, clarification on study design, and outcomes reported in the peer reviewed publications.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
There was no convincing evidence that any other interventions reduce duration of mechanical ventilation.
“There was no convincing evidence that any of the other interventions reduce duration of mechanical ventilation (fig 2).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Findings for other outcomes in the non-severe disease network were not meaningfully different from the full network.
“Findings for other outcomes were not meaningfully different from the full network.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingcitation
None of these changes would have resulted in a meaningful change to pooled effect estimates or certainty for any outcome.
“None of these changes would have resulted in a meaningful change to pooled effect estimates or certainty for any outcome.41”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [41] source
Not checked in the free run.
- Findingown data
Nirmatrelvir/ritonavir probably reduces hospitalisation in patients with non-severe covid-19 (odds ratio 0.13, 95% credible interval 0.04 to 0.40; moderate certainty).
“nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (0.13, 0.04 to 0.40; moderate certainty)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Several drugs did not have a higher risk of discontinuation for adverse effects than standard care/placebo.
“Several drugs did not have a higher risk of discontinuation for adverse effects than standard care/placebo (fig 2).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Janus kinase inhibitors reduce length of hospital stay compared with standard care (mean difference −1.1 days, 95% credible interval −1.9 to −0.4; moderate certainty).
“Janus kinase inhibitors (−1.1 days, −1.9 to −0.4; moderate certainty)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingnone given
The evidence supporting janus kinase inhibitors comes primarily from studies that used baricitinib.
“The evidence supporting janus kinase inhibitors comes primarily from studies that used baricitinib.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
In an additional network meta-analysis limited to patients with non-severe disease, nirmatrelvir/ritonavir may reduce mortality.
“An additional network meta-analysis limited to interventions of interest for patients with non-severe disease up to 2 February 2022 showed that nirmatrelvir/ritonavir and molnupiravir may reduce mortality (supplementary material).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingnone given
Hydroxychloroquine may increase the risk of mechanical ventilation.
“Hydroxychloroquine may increase the risk of mechanical ventilation, adverse effects leading to drug discontinuation, and length of hospital stay.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Interleukin-6 receptor antagonists probably do not reduce length of hospital stay when given without systemic corticosteroids (mean difference 0.0 days, 95% credible interval −1.2 to 1.2; moderate certainty).
“Interleukin-6 receptor antagonists probably do not reduce length of hospital stay when given without systemic corticosteroids (0.0 days, −1.2 to 1.2; moderate certainty).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingnone given
The drugs molnupiravir, nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, and remdesivir were all studied in people who were at increased risk of hospitalisation: they had not received a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine and had other risk factors for disease progression.
“These drugs were all studied in people who were at increased risk of hospitalisation: they had not received a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine and had other risk factors for disease progression.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Among patients with non-severe disease, no subgroup effects were identified for molnupiravir, nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, fluvoxamine, or remdesivir.
“Among patients with non-severe disease, we did not identify any subgroup effects for molnupiravir, nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, fluvoxamine, or remdesivir.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
In an additional network meta-analysis limited to patients with non-severe disease, molnupiravir may reduce mortality.
“An additional network meta-analysis limited to interventions of interest for patients with non-severe disease up to 2 February 2022 showed that nirmatrelvir/ritonavir and molnupiravir may reduce mortality (supplementary material).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Molnupiravir probably reduces time to symptom resolution (ratio of means 0.66, 95% credible interval 0.52 to 0.83; mean difference −3.3 days, 95% credible interval −4.8 to −1.6; moderate certainty).
“Molnupiravir probably reduces time to symptom resolution (ratio of means 0.66, 0.52 to 0.83; mean difference −3.3 days, −4.8 to −1.6; moderate certainty).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Remdesivir probably reduces hospitalisation in patients with non-severe covid-19 (odds ratio 0.25, 95% credible interval 0.07 to 0.86; low certainty).
“remdesivir (0.25, 0.07 to 0.86; low certainty)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductown data
We did not detect statistical incoherence in any of the network meta-analyses.
“We did not detect statistical incoherence in any of the network meta-analyses.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Premisecitation
Network meta-analysis, rather than pairwise meta-analysis, provides useful information about the comparative effectiveness of treatments that have not been tested head to head.
“Network meta-analysis, rather than pairwise meta-analysis, provides useful information about the comparative effectiveness of treatments that have not been tested head to head.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [5] source
Not checked in the free run.
- Study design and conductown data
All analyses reached convergence based on trace plots and a Brooks-Gelman-Rubin statistic less than 1.05, except for some comparisons.
“All analyses reached convergence based on trace plots and a Brooks-Gelman-Rubin statistic less than 1.05, except comparisons including umifenovir for mortality because no patients randomised to either of these drugs died, interleukin-6 inhibitors and doxycycline with ivermectin for adverse events, proxalutamide for hospital admission, and sulodexide for clinically important bleeding.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Premisecitation
The incorporation of indirect evidence can strengthen evidence in comparisons that were tested head to head.
“Moreover, the incorporation of indirect evidence can strengthen evidence in comparisons that were tested head to head.5”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [5] source
Not checked in the free run.
- Premisecitation
Evidence for effective treatment remains limited despite global efforts.
“Despite global efforts to identify effective interventions for the prevention and treatment of covid-19, which have resulted in approximately 3000 trials completed or underway,2 evidence for effective treatment remains limited.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [2] Cytel. Global coronavirus COVID-19 clinical trial tracker. 2020 https://www.covid19-trials.org/.
Not checked in the free run.
- Study design and conductreasoning
We included only treatments that included at least 100 patients or had at least 20 events.
“We therefore decided to include only treatments that included at least 100 patients or had at least 20 events, based on our impression of the minimum number of patients/events to possibly provide meaningful results.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
The RECOVERY trial was the first study to show that janus kinase inhibitors may have added benefit in patients also receiving interleukin-6 receptor antagonists and systemic corticosteroids.
“It was also the first study to show that janus kinase inhibitors may have added benefit in patients also receiving interleukin-6 receptor antagonists and systemic corticosteroids.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [38] Horby PW Emberson JR Mafham M RECOVERY Collaborative Group . Baricitinib in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 (RECOVERY): a randomised, controlled, open-label, platform trial and updated meta-analysis. medRxiv 2022:2022.03.02.22271623.
Not checked in the free run.
- Premisecitation
A single dose of either sarilumab or tocilizumab appears to be similarly efficacious.
“A single dose of either sarilumab and tocilizumab appears to be similarly efficacious.37”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [37] source
Not checked in the free run.
- Premisecitation
The RECOVERY trial confirmed that baricitinib reduces mortality.
“The RECOVERY trial confirmed that baricitinib reduces mortality.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [38] Horby PW Emberson JR Mafham M RECOVERY Collaborative Group . Baricitinib in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 (RECOVERY): a randomised, controlled, open-label, platform trial and updated meta-analysis. medRxiv 2022:2022.03.02.22271623.
Not checked in the free run.
- Interpretationreasoning
The absolute benefit of molnupiravir, nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, and remdesivir should be substantially smaller in patients who are vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 or who do not have risk factors for disease progression.
“The absolute benefit should therefore be substantially smaller in patients who are vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 or who do not have risk factors for disease progression.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductnone given
We used observational data to inform the absolute risk estimates for some outcomes.
“We used observational data to inform the absolute risk estimates for some outcomes; differences in baseline risk can impact GRADE assessments for imprecision.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Premisecitation
The subgroup effect for interleukin-6 receptor antagonists with versus without systemic corticosteroids is consistent with evidence from other meta-analyses.
“The subgroup effect is consistent with evidence from other meta-analyses.36”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [36] source
Not checked in the free run.
- Study design and conductcitation
Direct comparisons in which the evidence is dominated by unblinded studies were rated down, consistent with GRADE, for risk of bias.
“Direct comparisons in which the evidence is dominated by unblinded studies were rated down, consistent with GRADE, for risk of bias and that is reflected in the rating of the quality of evidence from the network estimate.40”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [40] source
Not checked in the free run.
- Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 26
- May combine two claims. 12
- The quote only partly states this claim. 1
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Findingown data267 (57.7%) trials and 89,814 (53.9%) patients are new from the previous iteration.
“267 (57.7%) trials and 89 814 (53.9%) patients are new from the previous iteration”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataThirty two studies had discrepancies in outcome reporting between the preprint and peer-reviewed publication, 32 studies had discrepancies with patient baseline characteristics, and 14 studies had discrepancies in reporting that led to changes in risk of bias ratings.
“Thirty two studies had discrepancies in outcome reporting between the preprint and peer-reviewed publication, 32 studies had discrepancies with patient baseline characteristics, and 14 studies had discrepancies in reporting that led to changes in risk of bias ratings.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Findingown dataNo substantive differences were found for 26 studies.
“No substantive differences were found for 26 studies.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Findingown dataFifty seven different interventions were included in the mortality network meta-analysis.
“Fifty seven different interventions were included”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Findingown dataWe stopped searching the Chinese databases on 20 February 2021 because they had not provided studies that meaningfully altered the evidence for any intervention.
“We stopped searching the Chinese databases on 20 February 2021 because they had not provided studies that meaningfully altered the evidence for any intervention.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
FindingreasoningMany of the data also had reporting concerns.
“Many of the data also had reporting concerns.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
FindingcitationTo date, we are aware of two other similar efforts to ours.
“To date, we are aware of two other similar efforts to ours.42 43”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [42] Boutron I, Chaimani A, Devane D, et al. Interventions for preventing and treating COVID-19: protocol for a living mapping of research and a living systematic review. Zenodo 2020. https://zenodo.org/record/3744600#.X1igcnlKiN5. source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [43] source
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
FindingreasoningThis is the final version of this particular living systematic review and network meta-analysis.
“This is the final version of this particular living systematic review and network meta-analysis.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataAll other interventions either are probably not beneficial, or the evidence remains highly uncertain regarding their impacts on patient-important outcomes.
“All other interventions either are probably not beneficial, or the evidence remains highly uncertain regarding their impacts on patient-important outcomes.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimThe quote only partly states this claim.
Findingown dataMolnupiravir probably reduces hospitalisation in patients with non-severe covid-19 (odds ratio 0.54, 95% credible interval 0.30 to 0.90; moderate certainty).
“Molnupiravir (odds ratio 0.54, 0.30 to 0.90; moderate certainty)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based). May combine two claims.
Findingnone givenWe also include a more comprehensive search for the evidence and several differences in analytical methods, which we believe are best suited for this evidence.
“We also include a more comprehensive search for the evidence and several differences in analytical methods, which we believe are best suited for this evidence.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Findingnone givenSome others use fixed rather than random effects meta-analysis and provide estimates for pairwise comparisons only.
“For example, some others use fixed rather than random effects meta-analysis and provide estimates for pairwise comparisons only.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductnone givenWe assessed the certainty of evidence using the GRADE approach for network meta-analysis.
“We assessed the certainty of evidence using the grading of recommendations assessment, development and evaluation (GRADE) approach for network meta-analysis.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone givenWe used node splitting models to assess local incoherence.
“We used node splitting models to assess local incoherence and to obtain indirect estimates.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
Study design and conductown dataPairs of reviewers independently screened all titles and abstracts, followed by full texts of trials that were identified as potentially eligible.
“pairs of reviewers, following training and calibration exercises, independently screened all titles and abstracts, followed by full texts of trials that were identified as potentially eligible.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
PremisecitationLiving systematic reviews deal with the main limitation of traditional reviews-that of providing an overview of the relevant evidence only at a specific time.
“Living systematic reviews deal with the main limitation of traditional reviews—that of providing an overview of the relevant evidence only at a specific time.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [4] source
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductown dataReviewers used a revision of the Cochrane tool for assessing risk of bias in randomised trials (RoB 2.0) to rate trials.
“used a revision of the Cochrane tool for assessing risk of bias in randomised trials (RoB 2.0)20 to rate trials”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductown dataPairs of reviewers extracted data independently using a standardised, pilot tested data extraction form.
“pairs of reviewers, following training and calibration exercises, extracted data independently using a standardised, pilot tested data extraction form.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
Study design and conductnone givenTwo people with experience in using GRADE rated each domain for each comparison separately and resolved discrepancies by consensus.
“Two people with experience in using GRADE rated each domain for each comparison separately and resolved discrepancies by consensus.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
PremisecitationThe RECOVERY trial randomized 8156 patients to baricitinib or standard care and was published after our analyses were completed.
“The RECOVERY trial, which randomized 8156 patients to baricitinib or standard care, was published after our analyses were completed.38”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [38] Horby PW Emberson JR Mafham M RECOVERY Collaborative Group . Baricitinib in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 (RECOVERY): a randomised, controlled, open-label, platform trial and updated meta-analysis. medRxiv 2022:2022.03.02.22271623.
Not checked in the free run.
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductnone givenThis living systematic review and network meta-analysis provides a comprehensive overview and assessment of the evidence published as of 3 December 2021.
“This living systematic review and network meta-analysis provides a comprehensive overview and assessment of the evidence published as of 3 December 2021”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Study design and conductnone givenOur team is composed of clinical and methods experts who have undergone training and calibration exercises for all stages of the review process.
“To ensure expertise in all areas, our team is composed of clinical and methods experts who have undergone training and calibration exercises for all stages of the review process.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Study design and conductcitationIn this living systematic review and network meta-analysis, we use a minimally contextualised approach for rating the certainty of the evidence, whereas the guideline panels use a fully contextualised approach.
“In this living systematic review and network meta-analysis, we use a minimally contextualised approach for rating the certainty of the evidence, whereas the guideline panels use a fully contextualised approach in which the thresholds of importance of magnitudes of effects depend on all other outcomes and factors involved in the decision.29”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [29] source
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductreasoningThe inclusion of preprints, many of which have negative results, might reduce this risk.
“The inclusion of preprints, many of which have negative results, might reduce this risk.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
Study design and conductnone givenOur search strategy and eligibility criteria were comprehensive, without restrictions on language of publication or publication status.
“Our search strategy and eligibility criteria were comprehensive, without restrictions on language of publication or publication status.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductreasoningDifferences in baseline risk can impact GRADE assessments for imprecision.
“We used observational data to inform the absolute risk estimates for some outcomes; differences in baseline risk can impact GRADE assessments for imprecision.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
InterpretationreasoningThe contextualisation explains differences in the certainty of the evidence between the two.
“The contextualisation explains differences in the certainty of the evidence between the two.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductreasoningWe decided to report evidence on treatments for which at least 100 people were randomised or for which there were at least 20 events.
“For that reason, we decided to report evidence on treatments for which at least 100 people were randomised or for which there were at least 20 events.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Study design and conductreasoningThe primary limitation of the evidence for most interventions is lack of blinding, which might introduce bias through differences in co-interventions between randomised groups.
“The primary limitation of the evidence for most interventions is lack of blinding, which might introduce bias through differences in co-interventions between randomised groups.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductreasoningThe living nature of our systematic review and network meta-analysis could conceivably amplify publication bias, because studies with promising results are more likely to be published and are published sooner than studies with negative results.
“The living nature of our systematic review and network meta-analysis could conceivably (at least temporarily) amplify publication bias, because studies with promising results are more likely to be published and are published sooner than studies with negative results.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone givenThe inclusion of preprints in our network meta-analysis might introduce bias from simple errors and the reporting limitations of preprints.
“However, the inclusion of preprints in our network meta-analysis might introduce bias from simple errors and the reporting limitations of preprints.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
The paper relies on this without support.
Baseline risks for outcomes derived from observational data are representative of the usual care groups in the included randomised trials.
“When available, we inferred baseline risk in the usual care group for each outcome from representative observational data (supplementary material).”
The paper relies on this without support.
Evidence for effective treatment for covid-19 remains limited despite huge efforts.
“Despite huge efforts to identify effective drug interventions for coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19), evidence for effective treatment remains limited”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Our thresholds for beneficial and harmful effects were informed by surveys of the coauthors in the parallel living SRNMAs.
“Our thresholds for beneficial and harmful effects were informed by surveys of the coauthors in the parallel living SRNMAs.17–19”
From Consistency of covid-19 trial preprints with published reports and impact for decision making: retrospective review (2022) · cites this paper as [17]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Percentage of studies conducted in China is incorrect
MinorTable 1 describes 420 studies. Its 41 studies from China represent 9.8% to one decimal place, not 10.0%.
Reported 10 · recomputed 9.761905
“| China | 41 (10.0) |”
Mortality analysis includes more trials than the stated overall analysis
MinorThe paper says 265 trials were analysed overall, but says 267 trials were included in the mortality network meta-analysis. An analysis of one outcome cannot contain more trials than the overall set analysed.
“Ultimately, we analysed 265 (63%) trials that reported on treatments with at least 100 patients or 20 events.”
“Two hundred and sixty seven trials with 138 345 participants met the threshold of analysing treatments with a minimum of 100 patients or 20 events and were included in the network meta-analysis (supplementary file).”
Standard-care trial count exceeds the hospital-admission analysis total
MinorThe hospital-admission analysis is said to include 35 trials, but its standard-care intervention is reported in 36 trials.
“Thirty five randomised trials with 21 306 participants met the threshold of analysing treatments with a minimum of 100 patients or 20 events and were included in the network meta-analysis (supplementary appendix).”
“the most common interventions were standard care (36 trials, 10 492 participants)”
Remdesivir's hospital-admission benefit is described as both possible and probable
MinorThe abstract distinguishes remdesivir as a treatment that may reduce admission, while the discussion groups it with treatments that probably reduce admission.
“Remdesivir may reduce hospital admission (29 fewer per 1000, 40 fewer to 6 fewer, low certainty).”
“For patients with non-severe covid-19, three antivirals probably reduce admission to hospital: molnupiravir, nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, and remdesivir.”
Cites
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RetractedHydroxychloroquine in the Treatment of COVID-19: A Multicenter Randomized Controlled Study
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RetractedWITHDRAWN: Efficacy and Safety of Ivermectin for Treatment and prophylaxis of COVID-19 PandemicPreprint
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Dexamethasone in Hospitalized Patients with Covid-19
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A Trial of Lopinavir–Ritonavir in Adults Hospitalized with Severe Covid-19
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Self-citationGRADE guidelines: 4. Rating the quality of evidence—study limitations (risk of bias)
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Self-citationRepurposed Antiviral Drugs for Covid-19 — Interim WHO Solidarity Trial Results
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Self-citationGraphical tools for network meta-analysis in STATA
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Self-citationInterleukin-6 receptor antagonists in critically ill patients with Covid-19.
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Baricitinib plus Remdesivir for Hospitalized Adults with Covid-19
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Self-citationEffect of Hydroxychloroquine in Hospitalized Patients with Covid-19
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Tocilizumab in Patients Hospitalized with Covid-19 Pneumonia
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Self-citationTocilizumab in Hospitalized Patients with Severe Covid-19 Pneumonia
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A living WHO guideline on drugs for covid-19 (2020-2023)
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Self-citationBorba, M. G. S., Val, F. F. A., Sampaio, V. S., Alexandre, M. A. A., Melo, G. C., Brito, M., Mourão, M. P. G., Brito-Sousa, J. D., Baía-da-Silva, D., Guerra, M. V. F., et al. (2020) · JAMA Network Open · doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.8857 · Cited by 1,038 · see citing works
The GRADE Working Group clarifies the construct of certainty of evidence
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Self-citationFavipiravir versus Arbidol for COVID-19: A Randomized Clinical Trial
Chen, C., Zhang, Y., Huang, J., Yin, P., Cheng, Z., Wu, J., Chen, S., Zhang, Y., Chen, B., Lu, M., et al. (2020) · doi:10.1101/2020.03.17.20037432 · Cited by 852 · see citing works
Effect of Hydrocortisone on Mortality and Organ Support in Patients With Severe COVID-19
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Tierney, J. F., Fisher, D. J., Vale, C. L., Burdett, S., Rydzewska, L. H., Rogozińska, E., Godolphin, P. J., White, I. R., & Parmar, M. K. B. (2021) · PLOS Medicine · doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1003629 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
How to update a living systematic review and keep it alive during a pandemic: a practical guide
Heron, L., Buitrago-Garcia, D., Ipekci, A. M., Baumann, R., Imeri, H., Salanti, G., Counotte, M. J., & Low, N. (2023) · Systematic Reviews · doi:10.1186/s13643-023-02325-y · Cited by 26 · see citing works
“…review and living guidelines teams who maintain dedicated websites can display updated results as soon as they are incorporated and include links to articles, protocols, and datasets using FAIR principles (findability, accessibility, interoperability, and reuse of digital assets) [3–6, 8, 10, 22].”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialMarshall, I. J., Trikalinos, T. A., Soboczenski, F., Yun, H. S., Kell, G., Marshall, R., & Wallace, B. C. (2023) · Journal of Clinical Epidemiology · doi:10.1016/j.jclinepi.2022.08.013 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Proposed triggers for retiring a living systematic review
Murad, M. H., Wang, Z., Chu, H., Lin, L., El Mikati, I. K., Khabsa, J., Akl, E. A., Nieuwlaat, R., Schuenemann, H. J., & Riaz, I. B. (2023) · BMJ Evidence-Based Medicine · doi:10.1136/bmjebm-2022-112100 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Davidson, M., Evrenoglou, T., Graña, C., Chaimani, A., & Boutron, I. (2024) · BMC Medical Research Methodology · doi:10.1186/s12874-023-02136-8 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Davidson, M., Evrenoglou, T., Graña, C., Chaimani, A., & Boutron, I. (2023) · Journal of Clinical Epidemiology · doi:10.1016/j.jclinepi.2023.08.011 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Collaborative Large Language Models for Automated Data Extraction in Living Systematic Reviews
Khan, M. A., Ayub, U., Naqvi, S. A. A., Khakwani, K. Z. R., Sipra, Z. B. R., Raina, A., Zou, S., He, H., Hossein, S. A., Hasan, B., et al. (2024) · doi:10.1101/2024.09.20.24314108 · Cited by 54 · see citing works
- Authors
- Siemieniuk, R. A., Bartoszko, J. J., Zeraatkar, D., Kum, E., Qasim, A., Díaz Martinez, J. P., Izcovich, A., Rochwerg, B., Lamontagne, F., Han, M. A., Agarwal, A., Agoritsas, T., Azab, M., Bravo, G., Chu, D. K., Couban, R., Cusano, E., Devji, T., Escamilla, Z., Foroutan, F., Gao, Y., Ge, L., Ghadimi, M., Heels-Ansdell, D., Honarmand, K., Hou, L., Ibrahim, S., Khamis, A., Lam, B., Mansilla, C., Loeb, M., Miroshnychenko, A., Marcucci, M., McLeod, S. L., Motaghi, S., Murthy, S., Mustafa, R. A., Pardo-Hernandez, H., Rada, G., Rizwan, Y., Saadat, P., Switzer, C., Thabane, L., Tomlinson, G., Vandvik, P. O., Vernooij, R. W., Viteri-García, A., Wang, Y., Yao, L., Zhao, Y., Guyatt, G. H., & Brignardello-Petersen, R.
- Affiliations
- McMaster University (CA)
- Hospital Alemán (AR)
- Chosun University (KR)
- University of Toronto (CA)
- University Hospital of Geneva (CH)
- University of Calgary (CA)
- Toronto General Hospital (CA)
- Lanzhou University (CN)
- Western University (CA)
- Hull York Medical School (GB)
- University of British Columbia (CA)
- University of Kansas Medical Center (US)
- University Health Network (CA)
- Lovisenberg Diakonale Sykehus (NO)
- Utrecht University (NL)
- Universidad UTE (EC)
- ORCID
- Siemieniuk, Reed AC
- Bartoszko, Jessica J
- Zeraatkar, Dena
- Kum, Elena
- Qasim, Anila
- Izcovich, Ariel
- Rochwerg, Bram
- Han, Mi Ah
- Agarwal, Arnav
- Agoritsas, Thomas
- Azab, Maria
- Chu, Derek K
- Couban, Rachel
- Cusano, Ellen
- Devji, Tahira
- Foroutan, Farid
- Gao, Ya
- Ge, Long
- Ghadimi, Maryam
- Honarmand, Kimia
- Hou, Liangying
- Ibrahim, Sara
- Khamis, Assem
- Loeb, Mark
- Miroshnychenko, Anna
- Marcucci, Maura
- McLeod, Shelley L
- Murthy, Srinivas
- Mustafa, Reem A
- Saadat, Pakeezah
- Switzer, Charlotte
- Thabane, Lehana
- Tomlinson, George
- Vandvik, Per O
- Vernooij, Robin WM
- Viteri-García, Andrés
- Wang, Ying
- Yao, Liang
- Zhao, Yunli
- Guyatt, Gordon H
- Venue
- BMJ
- Publisher
- BMJ
- Published
- 2020-07-30
- Volume
- 370
- Pages
- m2980
- ISSN
- 1756-1833 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC7390912
- OpenAlex
- W3046396978
- Semantic Scholar
- d8275101c32fa34be950ad4fdd4da76da9869f7c
- Cited by
- 846
- References
- 222
- Citations by year
- 2026: 14 · 2025: 30 · 2024: 73 · 2023: 131 · 2022: 213 · 2021: 304 · 2020: 80
- FWCI
- 8.60
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Update notices
- correction (2021-04-13)
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- BMJ (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- cIRcle (University of British Columbia) (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- Archive ouverte UNIGE (University of Geneva) (publishedVersion, other-oa)
- Monash University Research Portal (Monash University) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- Lanzhou University Institutional Repository (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-sa)
- Lanzhou University Institutional Repository (submittedVersion)
- Utrecht University Repository (Utrecht University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- NORA - Norwegian Open Research Archives (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- MacSphere (McMaster University) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- HighWire Press Open Archive (submittedVersion)
- Archive ouverte UNIGE (University of Geneva) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- NORA - Norwegian Open Research Archives (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- Funders
- Canadian Institutes of Health Research (Research CIHR-IRSC:057900132, 170359_1, CIHR-IRSC:057900132)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › COVID-19 Clinical Research Studies
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Pulmonary and Respiratory Medicine › Respiratory Support and Mechanisms
- Keywords
- COVID-19 pandemic, antiviral agents, systemic corticosteroids, IL-6 receptor inhibitor, JAK inhibitors, nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, molnupiravir, remdesivir, tocilizumab, hydroxychloroquine, dexamethasone, mortality, hospitalization
- MeSH terms
- Betacoronavirus, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 Drug Treatment, Adenosine Monophosphate, Alanine, Antiviral Agents, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S., China, Drug Combinations, Glucocorticoids, Humans, Hydroxychloroquine, Pneumonia, Viral, Respiration, Artificial, Severity of Illness Index, United States, Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic, Databases, Factual, Treatment Outcome, Coronavirus Infections, Evidence-Based Medicine, Ritonavir, Pandemics, Standard of Care, Lopinavir
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-07.
Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-07.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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