The DOI matches its Crossref record; 139 of the 147 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Retrospective Voting Reconsidered
Abstract
We review advances in the study of retrospective voting, or how citizens evaluate and act on their perceptions of government performance. As a whole, the recent literature provides a more complete and nuanced picture of the retrospective voter as sometimes, but not always, effectively incentivizing elected officials to enhance public welfare. Leveraging examples of retrospective voting in areas other than the economy, the field is heading toward a middle ground in which voters resemble decision makers in many other domains. In many cases, a coherent logic governs voters' choices. In other instances, voters make mistakes, often in predictable ways subject to well-known psychological biases. Understanding the circumstances under which retrospective voting achieves effective democratic accountability and when it fails to do so is an important task for subsequent research. We discuss two additional issues for future exploration: a better understanding of normative benchmarks, and increased attention to the relationship between retrospective voting behavior and policy outcomes.
Overview
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
In the citing paper
“These perceptual biases seem most pronounced when the actual state of the economy is ambiguous (Healy & Malhotra 2013).”
From The Origins and Consequences of Affective Polarization in the United States (2019) · cites this paper as Healy & Malhotra 2013
Citations
Cites
Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979) · Econometrica · doi:10.2307/1914185 · Cited by 48,524
Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk
Kahneman, D. J., & Tversky, A. (1988) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511609220.014 · Cited by 32,720
An Economic Theory of Democracy.
Banfield, E. C., & Downs, A. J. (1958) · Midwest Journal of Political Science · doi:10.2307/2109186 · Cited by 18,558
Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1973) · Cognitive Psychology · doi:10.1016/0010-0285(73)90033-9 · Cited by 9,984
Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion
Angrist, J. D., & Pischke, J.-S. (2009) · doi:10.1515/9781400829828 · Cited by 9,467
Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
(1982) · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511809477 · Cited by 8,240
Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.
Shafer, G. R., Kahnerman, D., Slovic, P., & Tversky, A. (1984) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.2307/2288362 · Cited by 5,658
Maps of Bounded Rationality: Psychology for Behavioral Economics
Kahneman, D. (2003) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/000282803322655392 · Cited by 5,377
Schwarz, N., & Clore, G. L. (1983) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.45.3.513 · Cited by 4,952
Poverty and Famines: An Essay on Entitlement and Deprivation.
C., M., & Sen, A. K. (1982) · Population and Development Review · doi:10.2307/1973011 · Cited by 4,952
Research works printed but not linked: 9
- 10.2307/2938953 · DOI
- Campbell J, 2011, Forum J. Appl. Res. Contemp. Polit., 9, Article 7
- Chen J. 2013. Distributive spending, voter partisanship, and political participation: a theory of voter turnout as retrospective evaluation. Am. J. Polit. Sci. In press
- Fiorina MP, 1981, Retrospective Voting in American National Elections
- Levitt S, 1997, J. Polit. Econ., 87, 270
- Persson T, 2002, Political Economics
- Puzo M, 1972, The Godfather
- Rogoff K, 1990, Am. Econ. Rev., 80, 21
- 10.1515/9781400830480 · DOI
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Items 101–200 of 689
Going technocratic? Diluting governing responsibility in electorally turbulent times
Emanuele, V., Improta, M., Marino, B., & Verzichelli, L. (2022) · West European Politics · doi:10.1080/01402382.2022.2095494 · Cited by 35
False Narratives and Political Mobilization
Eliaz, K., Galperti, S., & Spiegler, R. (2024) · Journal of the European Economic Association · doi:10.1093/jeea/jvae047 · Cited by 34
Patrimonial Economic Voting and Asset Value – New Evidence from Taxation Register Data
Persson, M., & Martinsson, J. (2016) · British Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1017/s0007123416000181 · Cited by 34
Sheffer, L., & Loewen, P. J. (2019) · Political Research Quarterly · doi:10.1177/1065912918775252 · Cited by 33
Benczés, I., & Szabó, K. (2022) · Political Studies Review · doi:10.1177/14789299221109449 · Cited by 33
Political Change and Electoral Coalitions in Western Democracies
Hall, P. A., Evans, G., & Kim, S. I. (2023) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009431378 · Cited by 33
Wu, H., Yang, J., & Yang, Q. (2021) · Journal of Asian Economics · doi:10.1016/j.asieco.2021.101341 · Cited by 33
Adolph, C., Amano, K., Bang-Jensen, B., Fullman, N., Magistro, B., Reinke, G. E., Castellano, R., Erickson, M., & Wilkerson, J. (2021) · Perspectives on Politics · doi:10.1017/s1537592721002036 · Cited by 33
Just the Facts? Partisan Media and the Political Conditioning of Economic Perceptions
Anson, I. G. (2016) · Political Research Quarterly · doi:10.1177/1065912916648016 · Cited by 32
Payson, J. A. (2016) · Legislative Studies Quarterly · doi:10.1111/lsq.12159 · Cited by 32
Voters reward hard-working MPs: empirical evidence from the French legislative elections
François, A., & Navarro, J. (2019) · European Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s1755773919000274 · Cited by 31
Left behind: Voters’ reactions to local school and hospital closures
Nyholt, N. (2023) · European Journal of Political Research · doi:10.1111/1475-6765.12622 · Cited by 31
Sorace, M. (2021) · Politics · doi:10.1177/0263395721991403 · Cited by 30
How Attribution Inhibits Accountability: Evidence from Train Delays
Benedictis-Kessner, J. D. (2018) · The Journal of Politics · doi:10.1086/698754 · Cited by 29
Extreme weather and the politics of climate change: A study of campaign finance and elections
Liao, Y., & Junco, P. R. (2021) · Journal of Environmental Economics and Management · doi:10.1016/j.jeem.2021.102550 · Cited by 29
The Electoral Consequences of Household Indebtedness under Austerity
Wiedemann, A. (2020) · American Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1111/ajps.12708 · Cited by 29
Long-term evidence of retrospective voting: A natural experiment from the German Democratic Republic
Avdeenko, A. (2018) · European Economic Review · doi:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2018.01.006 · Cited by 29
Kayser, M. A. L. A. D. (2014) · Sage eBooks · doi:10.4135/9781473921108.n7 · Cited by 28
Public support for withdrawal from international organizations: Experimental evidence from the US
Borzyskowski, I. V., & Vabulas, F. A. (2024) · The Review of International Organizations · doi:10.1007/s11558-024-09539-2 · Cited by 28
The Political Economy Consequences of China's Export Slowdown
Campante, F. R., Chor, D., & Li, B. (2019) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w25925 · Cited by 28
Voting for Votes: Opposition Parties’ Legislative Activity and Electoral Outcomes
Tuttnauer, O., & Wegmann, S. (2022) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s0003055422000338 · Cited by 27
Double-Edged Bullets: The Conditional Effect of Terrorism on Vote for the Incumbent
Falcó-Gimeno, A., Muñoz, J., & Pannico, R. (2022) · British Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1017/s0007123422000096 · Cited by 27
The political dynamics of voter retrospection and disaster responses
Rubin, O. (2019) · Disasters · doi:10.1111/disa.12376 · Cited by 26
Barking Up the Wrong Tree: How Political Alignment Shapes Electoral Backlash from Natural Disasters
Blankenship, B., Kennedy, R., Urpelainen, J., & Yang, J. (2020) · Comparative Political Studies · doi:10.1177/0010414020970211 · Cited by 26
A Tale of Three Cities: Electoral Accountability in Indonesian Local Politics
Fossati, D. (2017) · Journal of Contemporary Asia · doi:10.1080/00472336.2017.1376345 · Cited by 26
Stecker, C., & Debus, M. (2019) · Politische Vierteljahresschrift · doi:10.1007/s11615-019-00151-3 · Cited by 26
The Virus of Fear: The Political Impact of Ebola in the United States
Campante, F. R., Depetris-Chauvín, E., & Durante, R. (2023) · American Economic Journal Applied Economics · doi:10.1257/app.20220030 · Cited by 26
From bonus to burden: The cost of ruling from a new(s) perspective
Thesen, G., Green‐Pedersen, C., & Mortensen, P. B. (2024) · European Journal of Political Research · doi:10.1111/1475-6765.12670 · Cited by 25
Vintage errors: do real-time economic data improve election forecasts?
Kayser, M. A. L. A. D., & Leininger, A. (2015) · Research & Politics · doi:10.1177/2053168015589624 · Cited by 25
Bochsler, D., & Hänni, M. (2018) · European Journal of Political Research · doi:10.1111/1475-6765.12269 · Cited by 25
Beyond post-apartheid politics? Cleavages, protest and elections in South Africa
Paret, M. (2018) · The Journal of Modern African Studies · doi:10.1017/s0022278x18000319 · Cited by 25
Anson, I. G., & Hellwig, T. T. (2015) · Wiley eBooks · doi:10.1002/9781118900772.etrds0090 · Cited by 25
The Political Economy of Financing Climate Policy -- Evidence from the Solar Pv Subsidy Programs
Groote, O. D., Gautier, A., & Verboven, F. (2022) · Resource and Energy Economics · doi:10.1016/j.reseneeco.2024.101436 · Cited by 24
Issue Ownership of the Economy: Cross-Time Effects on Vote Choice
Bélanger, É., & Nadeau, R. (2015) · West European Politics · doi:10.1080/01402382.2015.1039373 · Cited by 24
Partisanship, media and the objective economy: Sources of individual-level economic assessments
Yağcı, A. H., & Oyvat, C. (2020) · Electoral Studies · doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2020.102135 · Cited by 24
Sances, M., & Clinton, J. D. (2020) · The Journal of Politics · doi:10.1086/710085 · Cited by 24
Stiers, D. (2018) · Party Politics · doi:10.1177/1354068817744201 · Cited by 23
“This Was No Act of God:” Disaster, Causality, and Politics
Dodds, G. G. (2015) · Risk Hazards & Crisis in Public Policy · doi:10.1002/rhc3.12074 · Cited by 23
Voter Response to Peak and End Transfers: Evidence from a Conditional Cash Transfer Experiment
Galiani, S., Hajj, N., McEwan, P. J., Ibarrarán, P., & Krishnaswamy, N. (2019) · American Economic Journal Economic Policy · doi:10.1257/pol.20170448 · Cited by 23
The electoral risks of austerity
Ciobanu, C. (2023) · European Journal of Political Research · doi:10.1111/1475-6765.12604 · Cited by 22
Tertytchnaya, K., & Vries, C. E. D. (2018) · Political Behavior · doi:10.1007/s11109-018-9482-4 · Cited by 22
Politicians’ Theories of Voting Behavior
Lucas, J., Sheffer, L., Loewen, P. J., Walgrave, S., Soontjens, K., Amsalem, E., Bailer, S., Brack, N., Breunig, C., Bundi, P., et al. (2024) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s0003055424001060 · Cited by 22
Do Natural Disasters Affect Voting Behavior? Evidence from Croatian Floods
Bovan, K., Banai, B., & Banai, I. P. (2018) · PLoS Currents · doi:10.1371/currents.dis.cbf57c8ac3b239ba51ccc801d3362c07 · Cited by 22
Kim, S. E., & Yang, J. (2021) · American Politics Research · doi:10.1177/1532673x211043445 · Cited by 22
Without Roots: The Political Consequences of Collective Economic Shocks
Cremaschi, S., Bariletto, N., & Vries, C. E. D. (2025) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s0003055425000073 · Cited by 21
Anticipated Election Result and Protest Voting: Why and When Canadian Voters Signal Discontent
Schimpf, C. H. (2019) · Canadian Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1017/s0008423919000325 · Cited by 21
Risk from responses to a changing climate
Andrews, T. M., Simpson, N. P., Mach, K. J., & Trisos, C. H. (2023) · Climate Risk Management · doi:10.1016/j.crm.2023.100487 · Cited by 21
The political consequences of resource scarcity: Targeted spending in a water-stressed democracy
Mahadevan, M., & Shenoy, A. (2023) · Journal of Public Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jpubeco.2023.104842 · Cited by 21
Public Approval of the Supreme Court and Its Implications for Legitimacy
Boston, J., & Krewson, C. N. (2024) · Political Research Quarterly · doi:10.1177/10659129241243040 · Cited by 21
Development or Rent Seeking? How Political Influence Shapes Public Works Provision in India
Bohlken, A. T. (2019) · British Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1017/s0007123418000376 · Cited by 21
Goyal, T. (2023) · The Journal of Politics · doi:10.1086/726973 · Cited by 21
Football and Public Opinion: A Partial Replication and Extension
Busby, E. C., & Druckman, J. N. (2017) · Journal of Experimental Political Science · doi:10.1017/xps.2017.22 · Cited by 21
Stokes, S. C. (2018) · Critical Review · doi:10.1080/08913811.2018.1473111 · Cited by 20
Mandates matter: how decisive victories enhance expectations about government performance
Kolpinskaya, E., Katz, G., BANDUCCI, S. A., Stevens, D. P., & Coan, T. (2019) · Journal of Elections Public Opinion and Parties · doi:10.1080/17457289.2019.1599004 · Cited by 20
Lindholm, A., & Rapeli, L. (2023) · European Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s1755773922000583 · Cited by 20
Life Dissatisfaction and the Right-Wing Populist Vote: Evidence from the European Social Survey
Lindholm, A., Lütz, G., & Green, E. G. T. (2024) · American Behavioral Scientist · doi:10.1177/00027642241240334 · Cited by 21
Representation When Constituent Opinion and District Conditions Collide
Adler, E. S., Cayton, A. F., & Griffin, J. D. (2018) · Political Research Quarterly · doi:10.1177/1065912918755973 · Cited by 20
Dyck, J. J., & Pearson‐Merkowitz, S. (2023) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197623787.001.0001 · Cited by 19
Political expectations and electoral responses to wind farm development in Sweden
Isaksson, Z., & Gren, S. (2024) · Energy Policy · doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2024.113984 · Cited by 19
The Impact of the Economy on Presidential Elections Throughout US History
Guntermann, E., Lenz, G., & Myers, J. R. (2021) · Political Behavior · doi:10.1007/s11109-021-09677-y · Cited by 19
Hirsch, A. V., & Kastellec, J. (2022) · Journal of Theoretical Politics · doi:10.1177/09516298221085974 · Cited by 19
Economic Voting during the AKP Era in Turkey
Aytaç, S. E. (2020) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190064891.013.6 · Cited by 19
Must Egalitarians Condemn Representative Democracy?
Lovett, A. (2021) · Social Theory and Practice · doi:10.5840/soctheorpract202121116 · Cited by 18
Strategic Allocation of Irrevocable and Durable Benefits
Frey, A. (2020) · American Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1111/ajps.12581 · Cited by 18
Kikuta, K., & Uesugi, M. (2023) · International Organization · doi:10.1017/s0020818322000261 · Cited by 17
Is It Still the Economy? Economic Voting in Polarized Politics
Moreira, T. (2025) · British Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1017/s0007123424000619 · Cited by 17
Idiosyncratic Issue Opinion and Political Choice
Vivyan, N., Lauderdale, B. E., & Hanretty, C. (2025) · doi:10.1093/9780198955245.001.0001 · Cited by 17
Democracy for Realists, Groups, and Ordinary Voters
Schickler, E. (2018) · Critical Review · doi:10.1080/08913811.2018.1448518 · Cited by 17
Algara, C., Amlani, S., Collitt, S., Hale, I., & Kazemian, S. (2022) · Political Behavior · doi:10.1007/s11109-022-09826-x · Cited by 17
Well-being foundations of populism in Europe
Silva, R. M. C. D. (2023) · European Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2023.102494 · Cited by 17
Do green parties in government benefit from natural catastrophes? How wildfires are linked to voting
Kronborg, A., Hedegaard, F., Klindt, I., & Vandeweerdt, C. (2024) · Electoral Studies · doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102749 · Cited by 17
Citizens as a democratic safeguard? The sequence of sanctioning elite attacks on democracy
Jacob, M. S. (2024) · American Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1111/ajps.12847 · Cited by 17
Local Economic Shocks and National Election Outcomes: Evidence from Hungarian Administrative Data
Simonovits, G., Kates, S., & Szeitl, B. (2018) · Political Behavior · doi:10.1007/s11109-018-9453-9 · Cited by 17
Life Satisfaction and Incumbent Voting: Examining the Mediating Effect of Trust in Government
Ng, J. W. J., Vaithilingam, S., Lee, G. H. Y., & Rangel, G. J. (2022) · Journal of Happiness Studies · doi:10.1007/s10902-022-00536-z · Cited by 17
A theory of political gridlock
Ortner, J. M. (2017) · Theoretical Economics · doi:10.3982/te2276 · Cited by 17
Patkós, V., & Plesz, B. (2025) · West European Politics · doi:10.1080/01402382.2025.2543600 · Cited by 16
Thorson, E. A. (2024) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197512326.001.0001 · Cited by 16
Economic voting in the 2023 Turkish general election
Aytaç, S. E. (2024) · Journal of Southeast European and Black Sea Studies · doi:10.1080/14683857.2024.2324524 · Cited by 16
Do government performance signals affect citizen satisfaction?
Wang, W., & Kim, T. K. (2024) · Journal of Policy Analysis and Management · doi:10.1002/pam.22597 · Cited by 16
Political Accountability, Legislator Gender, and the Status Quo Bias
Sheffer, L. (2019) · Politics & Gender · doi:10.1017/s1743923x19000825 · Cited by 16
Audits for Accountability: Evidence from Municipal By-Elections in South Africa
Berliner, D., & Wehner, J. (2021) · The Journal of Politics · doi:10.1086/716951 · Cited by 16
Electoral Repercussions of a Pandemic: Evidence from the 2009 H1N1 Outbreak
Gutiérrez, E., Meriläinen, J., & Rubli, A. (2020) · The Journal of Politics · doi:10.1086/719634 · Cited by 16
An Experimental Approach to Economic Voting
Simonovits, G. (2015) · Political Behavior · doi:10.1007/s11109-015-9303-y · Cited by 16
Vanishing wealth, vanishing votes? Latino homeownership and the 2016 election in Florida
Rugh, J. S. (2019) · Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies · doi:10.1080/1369183x.2019.1592877 · Cited by 16
Do political protests mobilize voters? Evidence from the Black Lives Matter protests
Engist, O., & Schafmeister, F. (2022) · Public Choice · doi:10.1007/s11127-022-00998-y · Cited by 15
Becher, M., Brouard, S., & Stegmueller, D. (2023) · British Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1017/s0007123423000170 · Cited by 15
The Politics of Personal Crisis: How Life Disruptions Shape Political Participation
Ojeda, C., Michener, J., & Haselswerdt, J. (2024) · Political Behavior · doi:10.1007/s11109-024-09933-x · Cited by 15
Inequality and party support: positional economic voting or a new dimension of valence?
Dassonneville, R. C., & Lewis‐Beck, M. S. (2019) · Regional Studies · doi:10.1080/00343404.2019.1634802 · Cited by 15
The Political Impact of Monetary Shocks: Evidence from India's 2016 DemonetizationPreprint
Bhavnani, R. R., & Copelovitch, M. G. (2018) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3095228 · Cited by 15
Political surveys bias self‐reported economic perceptions
Bailey, J. (2022) · Public Opinion Quarterly · doi:10.1093/poq/nfab054 · Cited by 14
Devroe, R. (2022) · Women s Studies International Forum · doi:10.1016/j.wsif.2022.102619 · Cited by 14
Are Perceptions of Local Conditions Rooted in Reality? Evidence From Two Large-Scale Local Surveys
Holbrook, T. M., & Weinschenk, A. C. (2019) · American Politics Research · doi:10.1177/1532673x19885863 · Cited by 14
Wu, J. D., & Huber, G. A. (2021) · American Politics Research · doi:10.1177/1532673x211026831 · Cited by 14
Ferraresi, M., & Gucciardi, G. (2021) · European Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2021.102144 · Cited by 14
Voter attention and electoral accountability
Devdariani, S., & Hirsch, A. V. (2023) · Journal of Public Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jpubeco.2023.104918 · Cited by 14
Political information and retrospective voting
Stiers, D. (2019) · West European Politics · doi:10.1080/01402382.2019.1697564 · Cited by 14
Who’s getting the office? Party dominance and elected executives’ career path
Pastrana, J. A. R. (2021) · Kyklos · doi:10.1111/kykl.12259 · Cited by 14
Larsen, M. V. (2018) · Political Behavior · doi:10.1007/s11109-018-9483-3 · Cited by 14
Robison, J. (2018) · British Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1017/s0007123418000315 · Cited by 14
Plescia, C., Kritzinger, S., & Spoon, J. (2021) · European Journal of Political Research · doi:10.1111/1475-6765.12478 · Cited by 13
Metadata
- Authors
- Healy, A., & Malhotra, N.
- Affiliations
- Loyola Marymount University (US)
- Stanford University (US)
- ORCID
- Malhotra, Neil
- Venue
- Annual Review of Political Science
- Publisher
- Annual Reviews
- Published
- 2013-05-11
- Volume
- 16
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 285-306
- ISSN
- 1094-2939 (ISSN-L)
- 1545-1577
- OpenAlex
- W2170291011
- Cited by
- 667
- References
- 147
- Citations by year
- 2026: 47 · 2025: 75 · 2024: 75 · 2023: 83 · 2022: 58 · 2021: 57 · 2020: 49 · 2019: 75 · 2018: 56 · 2017: 25 · 2016: 25 · 2015: 26 · 2014: 14 · 2013: 1
- FWCI
- 54.94
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Annual Review of Political Science (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Electoral Systems and Political Participation
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Political Theory and Democracy
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Game Theory and Voting Systems
- Keywords
- retrospective voting, government performance perceptions, democratic accountability, voting behavior, psychological biases, normative benchmarks, policy outcomes, economic voting, political decision-making
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review