CREATIVE HYPOTHESIS GENERATING IN PSYCHOLOGY: Some Useful Heuristics

McGuire, William J.

doi:10.1146/annurev.psych.48.1.1

Cited by 203Psychology Research and BibliometricsCreativity in Education and NeuroscienceAcademic and Historical Perspectives in Psychology

CREATIVE HYPOTHESIS GENERATING IN PSYCHOLOGY: Some Useful Heuristics

McGuire, William J.·1997·Annual Review of Psychology

DOI 10.1146/annurev.psych.48.1.1

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Abstract

[Figure: see text] ▪ Abstract To correct a common imbalance in methodology courses, focusing almost entirely on hypothesis-testing issues to the neglect of hypothesis-generating issues which are at least as important, 49 creative heuristics are described, divided into 5 categories and 14 subcategories. Each of these heuristics has often been used to generate hypotheses in psychological research, and each is teachable to students. The 49 heuristics range from common sense perceptiveness of the oddity of natural occurrences to use of sophisticated quantitative data analyses in ways that provoke new insights.

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There is far too little research that focuses on generating hypotheses from careful observation and on building theory that can be tested.
“There is far too little research that focuses on generating hypotheses from careful observation and on building theory that can be tested (Kazdin 2003, McGuire 1997).”
From Mediators and Mechanisms of Change in Psychotherapy Research (2007) · cites this paper as McGuire 1997

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BackgroundResultInfluential
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Leone, L., Perugini, M., & Ercolani, A. P. (1999) · European Journal of Social Psychology · doi:10.1002/(sici)1099-0992(199903/05)29:2/3 · Cited by 170 · see citing works
Creativity in College Classrooms
Halpern, D. F. (2010) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511781629.019 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Phenomenology of Acculturation: Retrospective Reports from the Philippines, Japan, Quebec, and Norway
Rudmin, F. W. (2010) · Culture & Psychology · doi:10.1177/1354067x10371139 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
“McGuire (1997) has noted that many quantitative empirical studies in social psychology rest on undeclared phenomenological methods that were used in the development of the research design and measures.”
Background
Is the Political Slant of Psychology Research Related to Scientific Replicability?
Reinero, D. A., Wills, J. A., Brady, W. J., Mende‐Siedlecki, P., Crawford, J. T., & Bavel, J. J. V. (2020) · Perspectives on Psychological Science · doi:10.1177/1745691620924463 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
“Thus, we believe that pursuing adversarial collaborations (Shi, Teplitskiy, Duede, & Evans, 2019) and performing “turnabout” tests, wherein a hypothesis is inverted to test a reverse claim, may be a helpful guard against confirmation bias and groupthink (Duarte et al., 2015; McGuire, 1997; Washburn & Skitka, 2018).”
Background
The importance of scientific method for psychological science
Haig, B. D. (2018) · Psychology Crime and Law · doi:10.1080/1068316x.2018.1557181 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
“McGuire (1997) discusses many useful heuristics that can be used to facilitate the generation of hypotheses in psychological research.”
Background
The Effects of a Digital Marketing Orientation on Business Performance
Pascalau, S. V., Popescu, F.-A., Bîrlădeanu, G. L., & Gigauri, I. (2024) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su16156685 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
“In a well-known essay on the subject, McGuire [53] argues that, despite its significance, the process of hypothesis formulation is not given sufficient attention in research skills training.”
Background
Developing Treatments for Antisocial Behavior Among Children: Controlled Trials and Uncontrolled Tribulations
Kazdin, A. E. (2018) · Perspectives on Psychological Science · doi:10.1177/1745691618767880 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
“Perhaps all that is needed is just good science and facility in hypothesis generation unrelated to clinical work (e.g., W. J. McGuire, 1997).”
Background
Power, Anger, and Sadistic Rapists
Pardue, A. D., & Arrigo, B. A. (2007) · International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology · doi:10.1177/0306624x07303915 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Associational versus correlational research study design and data analysis
Krause, M. S. (2018) · Quality & Quantity · doi:10.1007/s11135-018-0687-8 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Investigative decision making
Eyre, M., & Alison, L. J. (2010) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511730290.009 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Integrative Propositional Analysis: A New Quantitative Method for Evaluating Theories in Psychology
Wallis, S. E. (2015) · Review of General Psychology · doi:10.1037/gpr0000048 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
“In an excellent review of creative approaches to generating hypotheses, McGuire (1997) describes dozens of heuristics for conceptual analysis.”
Background
Defeating the Potentially Deleterious Effects of Externally Imposed Deadlines: Practitioners’ Rules-of-Thumb
Burgess, M., Enzle, M. E., & Schmaltz, R. (2004) · Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin · doi:10.1177/0146167204264089 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
“We used McGuire’s (1997) practitioners’ rule-ofthumb method to generate our experimental comparisons. We interviewed a sample of people whose lives were replete with externally imposed deadlines, namely, 35 undergraduate students at two major universities. Students were first asked how submission deadlines were determ…”
Method
Reconciling the Paradoxical Findings of Choice Overload through an Analytical Lens
Zhang, N., & Xu, H. (2021) · MIS Quarterly · doi:10.25300/misq/2021/16954 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
The psychologist's companion: a guide to writing scientific papers for students and researchers
(2011) · Choice Reviews Online · doi:10.5860/choice.48-4255 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Multi-Resolution Design: Using Qualitative and Quantitative Analyses to Recursively Zoom in and out of the Same Dataset
Gillespie, A., Glăveanu, V. P., Laurent, C. D. S., Zittoun, T., & Marcos, M. J. B. (2024) · Journal of Mixed Methods Research · doi:10.1177/15586898241284696 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
“For abductive theory building, McGuire (1997) advises obtaining an in-depth grounded understanding of the phenomena and attending to discrepancies, logical tensions, and empirical surprises.”
Dog Pulling on the Leash: Effects of Restraint by a Neck Collar vs. a Chest Harness
Shih, H., Phillips, C. J. C., Mills, D. S., Yang, Y., Georgiou, F., & Paterson, M. (2021) · Frontiers in Veterinary Science · doi:10.3389/fvets.2021.735680 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
The Philosophy of Quantitative Methods
Haig, B. D. (2018) · Studies in applied philosophy, epistemology and rational ethics · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-01051-5_8 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Religion, Virtues, and Health
KRAUSE, N. M. (2021) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197587652.001.0001 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Learning organizational ambidexterity
Kerry, M. J., & DeSimone, J. A. (2019) · The Learning Organization · doi:10.1108/tlo-04-2018-0051 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Potential Risk Factors for Aggression and Playfulness in Cats: Examination of a Pooling Fallacy Using Fe-BARQ as an Example
Kmecová, N. G., Peťková, B., Kottferová, J., Wannell, R. S., & Mills, D. S. (2021) · Frontiers in Veterinary Science · doi:10.3389/fvets.2020.545326 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Theoriebildung in der Kommunikationswissenschaft
Hagen, S., Frey, F., & Koch, S. (2015) · Publizistik · doi:10.1007/s11616-015-0229-5 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Blind insights: a new technique for testing a priori hypotheses with qualitative methods
DeRosia, E. D., & Christensen, G. L. (2009) · Qualitative Market Research An International Journal · doi:10.1108/13522750910927197 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Moral relativists resist health mandates during the COVID-19 pandemic
Forsyth, D. R. (2021) · Personality and Individual Differences · doi:10.1016/j.paid.2021.110709 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
On the Structure and Dynamics of Human Thought: The Legacy of William J. McGuire for Social and Political Psychology
Jost, J. T., & Hardin, C. D. (2010) · Political Psychology · doi:10.1111/j.1467-9221.2010.00794.x · Cited by 9 · see citing works
“Finally, McGuire (1997) eagerly welcomed the advent of evolutionary theorizing when it comes to the structure and functions of human cognition and behavior and observed that, “A functional, adaptivity orientation deriving from evolutionary presuppositions is probably the most common metatheory…”
BackgroundInfluential
Writing a Literature Review
(2017) · The SAGE Encyclopedia of Communication Research Methods · doi:10.4135/9781483381411.n678 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Doing Better Research on Organizational Behaviour in Chinese Cultural Settings: Suggestions from the Notebooks of Two Fellow-Travellers
Bond, M. H., & Muethel, M. (2011) · Management and Organization Review · doi:10.1111/j.1740-8784.2011.00237.x · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Commentaries on “Abductive Theory Construction”
Kardes, F. R., Fischer, E. M., Spiller, S. A., Labroo, A. A., Bublitz, M. G., Peracchio, L. A., & Huber, J. C. (2021) · Journal of Consumer Psychology · doi:10.1002/jcpy.1279 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Aesthetic Heuristics in Ubimus
Keller, D., Otero, N., & Costalonga, L. (2015) · Electronic workshops in computing · doi:10.14236/ewic/eva2015.7 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
“Try to generate hypotheses by analyzing case studies, using analogies, accounting for exceptions and investigating paradoxical incidents (McGuire 1997).”
Background
Employee Maintenance: Examining Employment Relationships from the Perspective of Managerial Leaders
Tepper, B. J., & Simon, L. (2015) · Emerald Group Publishing Limited eBooks · doi:10.1108/s0742-730120150000033002 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Investigación traslacional: Una misión prospectiva para la ciencia del desarrollo y la ciencia del comportamiento
de México, U. N. A., & Velasco, C. S. (2012) · Revista Mexicana de Investigación en Psicología · doi:10.32870/rmip.vi.517 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
“…principios básicos, pero aquella que no los replica también puede ayudar a promover nuevas preguntas de IB, lo que contribuye a entender las limitaciones de ciertas explicaciones, analizar los contextos en los que estas son aplicables y aquellos en los cuáles pueden dejar de serlo (Mc Guire, 1997).”
Background
Strategies for Promoting Strong Inferences in Political Psychology ResearchPreprint
Washburn, A. N., & Skitka, L. J. (2018) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/c4wv5 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
“For example, the initial question might focus on conservatives, such as “Why are conservatives less willing than liberals to want to help the poor or personally responsible?” Then, using a hypothesis-generation strategy of accounting for the contrary of a hypothesis (McGuire, 1997), the goal is to reverse the focus of…”
BackgroundMethod
Is the political slant of psychology research related to scientific replicability?Preprint
Reinero, D. A., Wills, J. A., Brady, W. J., Mende‐Siedlecki, P., Crawford, J. T., & Bavel, J. J. V. (2019) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/6k3j5 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Risky choice frames shift the structure and emotional valence of internal arguments: A query theory account of the unusual disease problem
Wall, D., Crookes, R. D., Johnson, E. J., & Weber, E. U. (2020) · Judgment and Decision Making · doi:10.1017/s1930297500007877 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
“We argue that Query theory is an attractive account of risky choice framing effects but, like any complicated psychological phenomenon, they likely arise for multiple reasons (McGuire, 1997).”
Background
User-Centered Design – Evolution of an Interdisciplinary Process Approach Utilizing Empirical Research Methods
Fotler, D., Germann, R., Gröbe-Boxdorfer, B., Engeln, W., & Matthiesen, S. (2021) · Lecture notes in networks and systems · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-85540-6_56 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Human memory research: Current hypotheses and new perspectives
Jaeger, A., Galera, C., Stein, L. M., & Lopes, E. J. (2016) · Estudos de Psicologia (Natal) · doi:10.5935/1678-4669.20160010 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
“relevant for the process of hypothesis generation on human memory research (McGuire, 1997).”
BackgroundInfluential
Neoteny: The paedomorphosis of destinations
Christou, P. (2019) · Annals of Tourism Research · doi:10.1016/j.annals.2019.03.004 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Content and context: The impact of Campbell and Stanley.
Shadish, W. R., Phillips, G., & Clark, M. H. (2003) · American Psychological Association eBooks · doi:10.1037/10563-009 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Life events and increase in immature defense style during transition to adulthood
Tuulio-Henriksson, K. P. A. (2000) · Nordic Journal of Psychiatry · doi:10.1080/080394800750061405 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Practical Techniques for Theorizing from Literature Reviews
de Guinea, A. O., & Watson, R. T. (2024) · Business & Information Systems Engineering · doi:10.1007/s12599-024-00900-8 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
“For instance, McGuire (1997) suggests jolting conceptualizing out of its usual ruts by re-expressing propositions in different modalities, such as pictorial, logistical, symbolic, or tabular, and provides the example of Petty and Cacioppo (1986) expressing their evaluation-likelihood model as a ﬂow…”
What to Study in HCI?
Hornbæk, K., Oulasvirta, A., Reeves, S., & Bødker, S. (2015) · CHI Conference Extended Abstracts on Human Factors in Computing Systems (CHI EA) · doi:10.1145/2702613.2702648 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Discovering the next big question in evolutionary psychology: A few guidelines.
Kenrick, D. T. (2020) · Evolutionary Behavioral Sciences · doi:10.1037/ebs0000204 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
SQUARE-IT: a proposed approach to square the identified research problem in the literature with the objectives, the appropriate clinical research question, and the research hypothesis
Alfuth, M., Klemp, J., Schmidt, A., Streese, L., Ramadanov, N., & Prill, R. (2025) · BMC Medical Research Methodology · doi:10.1186/s12874-025-02468-7 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Das Potenzial von Marketing für eine ressourcenorientierte Transformation des Konsumsystems
Rieck, L. I. H. (2023) · Systemaufstellungen in Wissenschaft und Praxis · doi:10.1007/978-3-658-40346-1 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Be Careful What You Ask For: How Highly Inclusive Leaders Diminish Upward Communication Quality
Sumanth, J. J. (2019) · Carolina Digital Repository (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill) · doi:10.17615/jweg-5c66 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
The Psychologist's Companion for Undergraduates
Sternberg, R. J., & Sternberg, K. (2017) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781316691649 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Psychology in India must Rethink Its Goals: Reflections on Sinha (1965)
Padalia, D. (2023) · Psychological Studies · doi:10.1007/s12646-023-00747-1 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
What mathematical knowledge do pre-service elementary teachers value and remember?
McGowen, M. A., & Davis, G. E. (2001) · Cited by 2 · see citing works

Authors: McGuire, W. J.
Affiliations: Yale University (US)
Corresponding author: McGuire, William J.
Venue: Annual Review of Psychology
Publisher: Annual Reviews
Published: 1997-02
Volume: 48
Issue: 1
Pages: 1-30
ISSN: 0066-4308 (ISSN-L)
1545-2085
DOI: 10.1146/annurev.psych.48.1.1
OpenAlex: W2128556371
Cited by: 203
References: 46
Citations by year: 2026: 2 · 2025: 3 · 2024: 7 · 2023: 5 · 2022: 8 · 2021: 44 · 2020: 7 · 2019: 11 · 2018: 9 · 2017: 26 · 2016: 6 · 2015: 8 · 2014: 5 · 2013: 6 · 2012: 3
FWCI: 0.84
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Locations: Annual Review of Psychology (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Topics: Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Psychology Research and Bibliometrics
Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Creativity in Education and Neuroscience
Social Sciences › Psychology › General Psychology › Academic and Historical Perspectives in Psychology
Keywords: hypothesis generation, psychological research methods, research methods teaching, creative research, quantitative data analysis

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CREATIVE HYPOTHESIS GENERATING IN PSYCHOLOGY: Some Useful Heuristics

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