Does Medicare Save Lives? *
Open accessAbstract
Health insurance characteristics shift at age 65 as most people become eligible for Medicare. We measure the impacts of these changes on patients who are admitted to hospitals through emergency departments for conditions with similar admission rates on weekdays and weekends. The age profiles of admissions and comorbidities for these patients are smooth at age 65, suggesting that the severity of illness is similar on either side of the Medicare threshold. In contrast, the number of procedures performed in hospitals and total list charges exhibit small but statistically significant discontinuities, implying that patients over 65 receive more services. We estimate a nearly 1-percentage-point drop in 7-day mortality for patients at age 65, equivalent to a 20% reduction in deaths for this severely ill patient group. The mortality gap persists for at least 9 months after admission.
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Antibiotic use for infectious disease emerged and grew in clinical medicine from 1940 to 1955.
“Specifically the period from 1940 to 1955 was also one in which the use of antibiotics in the treatment of infectious disease emerged and grew in clinical medicine”
From Social security and mortality: The role of income support policies and population health in the United States (2011) · cites this paper as [40]
The Introduction and Section V.B discuss hospital admissions and treatment around Medicare eligibility at age 65, not the historical adoption of antibiotics. Searches for “1940 to 1955” and for antibiotic use in infectious disease found no passage addressing the claim. (LLM, conf=0.76)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredMedicare grew and treatment and prevention of life-threatening chronic diseases, especially heart disease, improved from 1971 to 1985.
“the period 1971 to 1985 saw the growth of Medicare and improvement in the treatment and prevention of life-threatening chronic diseases, especially heart disease.”
From Social security and mortality: The role of income support policies and population health in the United States (2011) · cites this paper as [40]
Section III describes California hospital data from 1992–2002, and Section V.B reports changes in treatment at age 65, including for heart attacks. Neither addresses whether Medicare grew or treatment and prevention of chronic disease improved from 1971 to 1985; searches for those years and the claimed historical trend found no supporting passage. Page numbers were not available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.76)
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Who benefits from free healthcare? Evidence from a randomized experiment in Ghana
Powell‐Jackson, T., Hanson, K., Whitty, C. W. M., & Ansah, E. (2013) · Journal of Development Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2013.11.010 · Cited by 58 · see citing works
Impact of long‐term care insurance on the health status of middle‐aged and older adults
Wang, J., Guan, J., & Wang, G. (2022) · Health Economics · doi:10.1002/hec.4634 · Cited by 57 · see citing works
Haste or Waste? Peer Pressure and Productivity in the Emergency Department
Silver, D. W. (2020) · The Review of Economic Studies · doi:10.1093/restud/rdaa054 · Cited by 57 · see citing works
Did Medicare Part D reduce mortality?
Huh, J., & Reif, J. (2017) · Journal of Health Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jhealeco.2017.01.005 · Cited by 56 · see citing works
The impact of social pensions on intergenerational relationships: Comparative evidence from China
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Bounds on treatment effects in regression discontinuity designs with a manipulated running variable
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The Economics of Credence Goods – a Survey of Recent Lab and Field Experiments*
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Defensive Medicine: Evidence from Military Immunity
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The Economics of Public Health Care Reform in Advanced and Emerging Economies
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The long road to health: Healthcare utilization impacts of a road pavement policy in rural India
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Regression Kink Design: Theory and Practice
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Medicare Spending for Previously Uninsured Adults
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Health Insurance and Income Inequality
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What Does (Formal) Health Insurance Do, and for Whom?
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- Authors
- Card, D., Dobkin, C., & Maestas, N.
- Affiliations
- University of California, Berkeley (US)
- University of California, Santa Cruz (US)
- RAND Corporation (US)
- Venue
- Quarterly Journal of Economics
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2009-05
- Volume
- 124
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 597-636
- ISSN
- 0033-5533 (ISSN-L)
- 1531-4650
- PMC
- PMC2777733
- OpenAlex
- W2145644832
- Cited by
- 494
- References
- 40
- Citations by year
- 2026: 17 · 2025: 17 · 2024: 28 · 2023: 29 · 2022: 30 · 2021: 40 · 2020: 33 · 2019: 33 · 2018: 21 · 2017: 37 · 2016: 39 · 2015: 38 · 2014: 36 · 2013: 28 · 2012: 28
- FWCI
- 48.48
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- The Quarterly Journal of Economics (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institute on Aging (R01AG026290, R03AG025155)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Healthcare Policy and Management
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Emergency Medicine › Emergency and Acute Care Studies
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Emergency Medicine › Hospital Admissions and Outcomes
- Keywords
- Medicare, health insurance coverage, emergency department admission, hospital discharge, mortality, older adults, comorbidities, hospital procedures, life expectancy
- MeSH terms
- Aged, Medicare, Humans, Middle Aged, Mortality, United States
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
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