Fertility restrictions and life cycle outcomes: evidence from the one-child policy in China
Abstract
Abstract This study considers the experience of china's one-child policy to examine how fertility restrictions affect economic and social outcomes over a lifetime. Using variations in these penalties across provinces and over time, we find that exposure to stricter fertility restrictions when young leads to higher education levels, more white-collar jobs, delayed marriage, and lower fertility rates. Further consequences include lower rates of residing with the elderly and higher household income, consumption, and savings. Finally, exposure to stricter fertility restrictions in early life increases female empowerment. Overall, fertility restrictions imposed when people are young have powerful effects throughout their life cycle.
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The one-child policy has led to a prolonged decline in China's fertility rate and a continuous increase in the proportion of the older population.
“The one-child policy has led to a prolonged decline in China’s fertility rate and a continuous increase in the proportion of the older population (11).”
From Caring alone: older adult care burdens, practices, and structural imbalances among China's one-child generation (2025) · cites this paper as [11]
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- Authors
- Huang, W., Lei, X., & Sun, A.
- Affiliations
- Emory University (US)
- Peking University (CN)
- Renmin University of China (CN)
- Corresponding author
- Huang, Wei
- ORCID
- Huang, Wei
- Venue
- The Review of Economics and Statistics
- Publisher
- MIT Press - Journals
- Published
- 2021-08-16
- Pages
- 1-17
- ISSN
- 0034-6535 (ISSN-L)
- 1530-9142
- OpenAlex
- W2562333936
- Cited by
- 106
- References
- 54
- Citations by year
- 2026: 9 · 2025: 29 · 2024: 23 · 2023: 11 · 2022: 14 · 2021: 9 · 2020: 5 · 2019: 3 · 2018: 3
- FWCI
- 13.03
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- The Review of Economics and Statistics (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Gender Studies › Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences
- Social Sciences › Gender Studies › Gender, Labor, and Family Dynamics
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › China's Socioeconomic Reforms and Governance
- Keywords
- one-child policy, educational attainment, employment, delayed marriage, fertility rate, household income, household consumption, household savings, living arrangements, women's empowerment, China
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