How Does Your Kindergarten Classroom Affect Your Earnings? Evidence from Project Star
Open accessAbstract
In Project STAR, 11,571 students in Tennessee and their teachers were randomly assigned to classrooms within their schools from kindergarten to third grade. This article evaluates the long-term impacts of STAR by linking the experimental data to administrative records. We first demonstrate that kindergarten test scores are highly correlated with outcomes such as earnings at age 27, college attendance, home ownership, and retirement savings. We then document four sets of experimental impacts. First, students in small classes are significantly more likely to attend college and exhibit improvements on other outcomes. Class size does not have a significant effect on earnings at age 27, but this effect is imprecisely estimated. Second, students who had a more experienced teacher in kindergarten have higher earnings. Third, an analysis of variance reveals significant classroom effects on earnings. Students who were randomly assigned to higher quality classrooms in grades K–3—as measured by classmates' end-of-class test scores—have higher earnings, college attendance rates, and other outcomes. Finally, the effects of class quality fade out on test scores in later grades, but gains in noncognitive measures persist.
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Restricted maximum likelihood estimation produces a consistent estimator for the true variance of teacher effects.
“Following Chetty et al. (2011), we estimated the magnitude of the variance of teacher effects using a direct, model-based estimate derived via restricted maximum likelihood estimation. This approach produces a consistent estimator for the true variance of teacher effects (Raudenbush & Bryk, 2002).”
From Teacher and Teaching Effects on Students’ Attitudes and Behaviors (2017) · cites this paper as Chetty et al. (2011)
Section V.B (page unavailable) estimates the variance of classroom effects using a random-effects model, which supports the general model-based variance-estimation approach. Our copy does not identify restricted maximum likelihood as the method or establish consistency for an estimator of teacher-effect variance; it says classroom effects also include peers and class-level shocks. The citing sentence attaches the consistency statement to Raudenbush and Bryk (2002), not Chetty et al. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredChetty et al. (2011) estimate that a 0.1 standard deviation increase in kindergarten test scores translates into increased earnings in adulthood with present value of $5,350 per pupil.
“Chetty et al. (2011) estimate that a 0.1 standard deviation increase in kindergarten test scores translates into increased earnings in adulthood with present value of $5,350 per pupil.”
From School Finance Reform and the Distribution of Student Achievement (2018) · cites this paper as Chetty et al. (2011)
Appendix C: Cost-Benefit Analysis (page unavailable) projects a $10,700 present-value earnings gain per student for a teacher-quality improvement associated with a 0.2-standard-deviation test-score gain; halving those figures yields $5,350 for 0.1 standard deviations. But the paper makes this projection under a strong assumption about teacher and classroom quality, not for an increase in kindergarten test scores generally, as the citing sentence implies. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredAttitudes and behaviors are stronger predictors of some long-term outcomes than test scores.
“In fact, these sorts of attitudes and behaviors are stronger predictors of some long-term outcomes than test scores (Chetty et al., 2011).”
From Teacher and Teaching Effects on Students’ Attitudes and Behaviors (2017) · cites this paper as Chetty et al., 2011
Controlling for demographic characteristics of the kindergartner diminishes but does not eliminate the association between kindergarten achievement and later wages.
“controlling for such demographic characteristics of the kindergartner (including family income, household ownership, and marital status) diminishes, but by no means eliminates, the association found in this study.”
From Education improves public health and promotes health equity (2015) · cites this paper as [31]
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- Authors
- Chetty, R., Friedman, J. N., Hilger, N., Saez, E., Schanzenbach, D. W., & Yagan, D.
- Affiliations
- National Bureau of Economic Research (US)
- Northwestern University (US)
- Venue
- The Quarterly Journal of Economics
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2011-11-01
- Volume
- 126
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 1593-1660
- ISSN
- 0033-5533 (ISSN-L)
- 1531-4650
- OpenAlex
- W2135730600
- Cited by
- 1,514
- References
- 36
- Citations by year
- 2026: 68 · 2025: 81 · 2024: 91 · 2023: 90 · 2022: 94 · 2021: 107 · 2020: 104 · 2019: 100 · 2018: 122 · 2017: 135 · 2016: 152 · 2015: 100 · 2014: 94 · 2013: 77 · 2012: 53
- FWCI
- 398.69
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- nrs.harvard.edu
- Licence
- cc-by
- Locations
- The Quarterly Journal of Economics (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Digital Access to Scholarship at Harvard (DASH) (Harvard University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Education › School Choice and Performance
- Social Sciences › Education › Early Childhood Education and Development
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Labor market dynamics and wage inequality
- Keywords
- Project STAR, class size, teacher experiences, classroom effects, kindergarten, earnings, college attendance, homeownership, retirement savings, test scores, non-cognitive skills, early childhood education, long-term outcomes
- MeSH terms
- Education, Income, Research Personnel, Social Mobility, Students, Teaching, Tennessee, History, 20th Century, History, 21st Century, Test Taking Skills, Research Report
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