Monitoring and Understanding Trends in Extreme Storms: State of Knowledge
Open accessAbstract
The state of knowledge regarding trends and an understanding of their causes is presented for a specific subset of extreme weather and climate types. For severe convective storms (tornadoes, hailstorms, and severe thunderstorms), differences in time and space of practices of collecting reports of events make using the reporting database to detect trends extremely difficult. Overall, changes in the frequency of environments favorable for severe thunderstorms have not been statistically significant. For extreme precipitation, there is strong evidence for a nationally averaged upward trend in the frequency and intensity of events. The causes of the observed trends have not been determined with certainty, although there is evidence that increasing atmospheric water vapor may be one factor. For hurricanes and typhoons, robust detection of trends in Atlantic and western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) activity is significantly constrained by data heterogeneity and deficient quantification of internal variability. Attribution of past TC changes is further challenged by a lack of consensus on the physical link- ages between climate forcing and TC activity. As a result, attribution of trends to anthropogenic forcing remains controversial. For severe snowstorms and ice storms, the number of severe regional snowstorms that occurred since 1960 was more than twice that of the preceding 60 years. There are no significant multidecadal trends in the areal percentage of the contiguous United States impacted by extreme seasonal snowfall amounts since 1900. There is no distinguishable trend in the frequency of ice storms for the United States as a whole since 1950.
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Studies using different metrics have reached different conclusions as to whether there are more heavy snowfall events in anomalously warm or cold years or seasons in the USA.
“Studies using different metrics have reached different conclusions as to whether there are more heavy snowfall events in anomalously warm or cold years or seasons in the USA [15, 44].”
From Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change (2015) · cites this paper as [44]
Section 5, “Severe Snow Storms and Ice Storms” (page unavailable), reports that extreme regional snowstorms occurred more often in colder-than-average snow seasons, although about 35% occurred in warmer-than-average seasons. It discusses different measures of extreme storms and seasonal snowfall, but does not report studies reaching opposing conclusions about whether heavy snowfall events are more frequent in warm or cold years or seasons. (LLM, conf=0.85)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThere have been more frequent extreme snowstorms in recent decades in the eastern two thirds of the USA.
“more frequent extreme snowstorms in recent decades in the eastern two thirds of the USA [44]”
From Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change (2015) · cites this paper as [44]
Observational studies of daily snowfall extremes have been regional in nature and have found large interdecadal variability.
“Observational studies of daily snowfall extremes have been regional in nature and have found large interdecadal variability with, for example, no long-term trend for Canada [94] but more frequent extreme snowstorms in recent decades in the eastern two thirds of the USA [44].”
From Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change (2015) · cites this paper as [44]
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Self-citation
- Authors
- Kunkel, K. E., Karl, T. R., Brooks, H., Kossin, J., Lawrimore, J. H., Arndt, D., Bosart, L., Changnon, D., Cutter, S. L., Doesken, N., Emanuel, K., Groisman, P. Y., Katz, R. W., Knutson, T., O'Brien, J., Paciorek, C. J., Peterson, T. C., Redmond, K., Robinson, D., Trapp, J., Vose, R., Weaver, S., Wehner, M., Wolter, K., & Wuebbles, D.
- Affiliations
- North Carolina State University (US)
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US)
- NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory (US)
- University at Albany, State University of New York (US)
- Northern Illinois University (US)
- University of South Carolina (US)
- Colorado State University (US)
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology (US)
- NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US)
- NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (US)
- The Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida
- University of California, Berkeley (US)
- Desert Research Institute (US)
- Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey (US)
- Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (US)
- University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (US)
- ORCID
- Venue
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
- Publisher
- American Meteorological Society
- Published
- 2013-04-01
- Volume
- 94
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 499-514
- ISSN
- 0003-0007 (ISSN-L)
- 1520-0477
- OpenAlex
- W1973926943
- Cited by
- 536
- References
- 84
- Citations by year
- 2026: 12 · 2025: 23 · 2024: 38 · 2023: 29 · 2022: 42 · 2021: 39 · 2020: 41 · 2019: 58 · 2018: 58 · 2017: 51 · 2016: 49 · 2015: 49 · 2014: 32 · 2013: 13 · 2012: 1
- FWCI
- 25.26
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (publishedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- U.S. Department of Energy (-AC02-05CH11231, 05CH11231, DE AC02 05CH11231, Contract DE-AC02-05CH11231., DE-AC02-)
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NA09NES4400006)
- Biological and Environmental Research (05CH11231, DE-AC02 − 05CH11231, AC02-05CH11231)
- Climate Program Office (NA09NES4400006)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
- Keywords
- extreme storms, climate trends, severe convective storms, tornadoes, hailstorms, severe thunderstorms, heavy rainfall, tropical cyclones, hurricanes, typhoons, snowstorms, ice storms, atmospheric water vapor, natural climate variability, data heterogeneity
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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