The DOI matches its Crossref record; 47 of the 47 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and the U.K. ACSIS Program
Open accessAbstract
Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) is the term used to describe the pattern of variability in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that is characterized by decades of basinwide warm or cool anomalies, relative to the global mean. AMV has been associated with numerous climate impacts in many regions of the world including decadal variations in temperature and rainfall patterns, hurricane activity, and sea level changes. Given its importance, understanding the physical processes that drive AMV and the extent to which its evolution is predictable is a key challenge in climate science. A leading hypothesis is that natural variations in ocean circulation control changes in ocean heat content and consequently AMV phases. However, this view has been challenged recently by claims that changing natural and anthropogenic radiative forcings are critical drivers of AMV. Others have argued that changes in ocean circulation are not required. Here, we review the leading hypotheses and mechanisms for AMV and discuss the key debates. In particular, we highlight the need for a holistic understanding of AMV. This perspective is a key motivation for a major new U.K. research program: the North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS), which brings together seven of the United Kingdom’s leading environmental research institutes to enable a broad spectrum approach to the challenges of AMV. ACSIS will deliver the first fully integrated assessment of recent decadal changes in the North Atlantic, will investigate the attribution of these changes to their proximal and ultimate causes, and will assess the potential to predict future changes.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The source backs part of the claim, not all of it — or backs it for a different population, condition or comparison.
In the citing paper
“The AMV region shows a step change in the SSTA centred on 1995, corresponding to the change to a positive phase of the AMV30.”
From Tendencies, variability and persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies (2020) · cites this paper as [30]
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“Changes in the AMV are coupled with the North Atlantic Oscillation and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), with a positive phase of the AMV associated with warmer SSTs30.”
From Tendencies, variability and persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies (2020) · cites this paper as [30]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
Observed and simulated multidecadal variability in the Northern Hemisphere
Delworth, T. L., & MANN, M. E. (2000) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s003820000075 · Cited by 1,216
The Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 7.0/7.1 and JULES Global Land 7.0 configurations
Walters, D., Baran, A. J., Boutle, I., Brooks, M. E., Earnshaw, P. D., Edwards, J., Furtado, K., Hill, P., Lock, A. P., Manners, J. C., et al. (2019) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-12-1909-2019 · Cited by 1,214
A signature of persistent natural thermohaline circulation cycles in observed climate.
Knight, J. R., Allan, R. J., Folland, C. K., Vellinga, M., & Mann, M. E. (2005) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2005gl024233 · Cited by 1,208
Atlantic hurricanes and natural variability in 2005
Trenberth, K. E., & Shea, D. J. (2006) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2006gl026894 · Cited by 1,091
Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability
Booth, B. B. B., Dunstone, N. J., Halloran, P. R., Andrews, T., & Bellouin, N. (2012) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature10946 · Cited by 1,022
NEMO Ocean Engine Reference Manual
Madec, G., Bell, M. J., Benshila, R., Blaker, A., Boudrallé-Badie, R., Bricaud, C., Bruciaferri, D., Carneiro, D., Castrillo, M., Calvert, D., et al. (2013) · Archivio istituzionale della ricerca (Alma Mater Studiorum Università di Bologna) · doi:10.5281/zenodo.1464816 · Cited by 1,007
The HadGEM2-ES implementation of CMIP5 centennial simulations
JONES, C. D., Hughes, J. K., Bellouin, N., Hardiman, S. C., Jones, G. S., Knight, J. R., Liddicoat, S. K., O’Connor, F. M., Andres, R. J., Bell, C., et al. (2011) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-4-543-2011 · Cited by 957
Self-citationHuang, B., Banzon, V. F., Freeman, E., Lawrimore, J. H., Liu, W., Peterson, T. C., Smith, T. M., Thorne, P., Woodruff, S. D., & Zhang, H. (2014) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-14-00006.1 · Cited by 941
Impact of Atlantic multidecadal oscillations on India/Sahel rainfall and Atlantic hurricanes
Zhang, R., & Delworth, T. L. (2006) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2006gl026267 · Cited by 939
Buckley, M. W., & Marshall, J. C. (2015) · Reviews of Geophysics · doi:10.1002/2015rg000493 · Cited by 932
Recent Walker circulation strengthening and Pacific cooling amplified by Atlantic warming
McGregor, S., Timmermann, A., Stuecker, M. F., England, M. H., Merrifield, M. A., Jin, F., & Chikamoto, Y. (2014) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2330 · Cited by 645
External forcing as a metronome for Atlantic multidecadal variability
Otterå, O. H., Bentsen, M., Drange, H., & Suo, L. (2010) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo955 · Cited by 496
Atlantic Ocean influence on a shift in European climate in the 1990s
Sutton, R. T., & Dong, B. (2012) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo1595 · Cited by 491
Self-citationMeasuring the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26°N
McCarthy, G., Smeed, D. A., Johns, W. E., Frajka-Williams, E. E., Moat, B. I., Rayner, D., Baringer, M., Meinen, C. S., Collins, J., & Bryden, H. L. (2014) · Progress In Oceanography · doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2014.10.006 · Cited by 455
Self-citationThe Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation without a role for ocean circulation
Clement, A., Bellomo, K., Murphy, L. N., Cane, M. A., Mauritsen, T., Rädel, G., & Stevens, B. (2015) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aab3980 · Cited by 401
Ambiguity in the causes for decadal trends in atmospheric methane and hydroxyl
Turner, A. J., Frankenberg, C., Wennberg, P. O., & Jacob, D. J. (2017) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1616020114 · Cited by 389
Ocean impact on decadal Atlantic climate variability revealed by sea-level observations
McCarthy, G., Haigh, I. D., Hirschi, J., Grist, J. P., & Smeed, D. A. (2015) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature14491 · Cited by 365
Self-citationEmerging impact of Greenland meltwater on deepwater formation in the North Atlantic Ocean
Böning, C. W., Behrens, E., Biastoch, A., Getzlaff, K., & Bamber, J. L. (2016) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo2740 · Cited by 349
Evaluation of the new UKCA climate-composition model – Part 2: The Troposphere
O’Connor, F. M., Johnson, C. E., Morgenstern, O., Abraham, N. L., Braesicke, P., Dalvi, M., Folberth, G., Sanderson, M. G., Telford, P. J., Voulgarakis, A., et al. (2014) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-7-41-2014 · Cited by 342
The Met Office Global Coupled model 2.0 (GC2) configuration
Williams, K. D., Harris, C. M., Bodas‐Salcedo, A., Camp, J., Comer, R. E., Copsey, D., Fereday, D. R., Graham, T., Hill, R., Hinton, T. J., et al. (2015) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-8-1509-2015 · Cited by 322
Self-citationNorthern Hemispheric Interdecadal Variability: A Coupled Air–Sea Mode
Timmermann, A., Latif, M., Voss, R., & Grötzner, A. (1998) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/1520-0442-11.8.1906 · Cited by 306
Have Aerosols Caused the Observed Atlantic Multidecadal Variability?
Zhang, R., Delworth, T. L., Sutton, R. T., Hodson, D., Dixon, K. W., Held, I. M., Kushnir, Y., Marshall, J. C., Ming, Y., Msadek, R., et al. (2013) · Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences · doi:10.1175/jas-d-12-0331.1 · Cited by 298
Self-citationThe Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 3.0/3.1 and JULES Global Land 3.0/3.1 configurations
Walters, D., Best, M., Bushell, A. C., Copsey, D., Edwards, J., Falloon, P., Harris, C. M., Lock, A. P., Manners, J. C., Morcrette, C. J., et al. (2011) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-4-919-2011 · Cited by 294
Skilful multi-year predictions of Atlantic hurricane frequency
Smith, D. M., Eade, R., Dunstone, N., Fereday, D. R., Murphy, J. M., Pohlmann, H., & Scaife, A. A. (2010) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo1004 · Cited by 285
Jungclaus, J. H., Helmuth Haak, G., Latif, M., & Mikolajewicz, U. (2005) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli3462.1 · Cited by 264
Evaluation of the new UKCA climate-composition model – Part 1: The stratosphere
Morgenstern, O., Braesicke, P., O’Connor, F. M., Bushell, A. C., Johnson, C. E., Osprey, S., & Pyle, J. A. (2009) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-2-43-2009 · Cited by 261
Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program: A New International Ocean Observing System
Lozier, M. S., Bacon, S., Bower, A. S., Cunningham, S. A., de Jong, M. F., de Steur, L., deYoung, B., Fischer, J., Gary, S. F., Greenan, B. J. W., et al. (2016) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-d-16-0057.1 · Cited by 261
Global gridded precipitation over land: a description of the new GPCC First Guess Daily product
Schamm, K., Ziese, M., Becker, A., Finger, P., Meyer-Christoffer, A., Schneider, U., Schröder, M., & Stender, P. (2014) · Earth system science data · doi:10.5194/essd-6-49-2014 · Cited by 258
A reversal of climatic trends in the North Atlantic since 2005
Robson, J., Ortega, P., & Sutton, R. (2016) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo2727 · Cited by 243
Self-citationParrish, D. D., Lamarque, J., Naïk, V., Horowitz, L. W., Shindell, D. T., Staehelin, J., Derwent, R. G., Cooper, O. R., Tanimoto, H., Volz‐Thomas, A., et al. (2014) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1002/2013jd021435 · Cited by 221
Recent Progress in Understanding and Predicting Atlantic Decadal Climate Variability
Yeager, S. G., & Robson, J. I. (2017) · Current Climate Change Reports · doi:10.1007/s40641-017-0064-z · Cited by 176
Self-citationAdjustment of the coupled ocean–atmosphere system to a sudden change in the Thermohaline Circulation
Dong, B., & Sutton, R. T. (2002) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2002gl015229 · Cited by 175
Self-citationDelworth, T. L., Zeng, F. J., Zhang, L., Zhang, R., Vecchi, G. A., & Yang, X. (2017) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-16-0358.1 · Cited by 174
Overturning in the North Atlantic
Lozier, M. S. (2011) · Annual Review of Marine Science · doi:10.1146/annurev-marine-120710-100740 · Cited by 172
Comment on “The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation without a role for ocean circulation”
Zhang, R., Sutton, R. T., Gokhan Danabasoglu, C., Delworth, T. L., Kim, W. M., Robson, J. I., & Yeager, S. G. (2016) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aaf1660 · Cited by 158
Self-citationBidecadal North Atlantic ocean circulation variability controlled by timing of volcanic eruptions
Swingedouw, D., Ortega, P., Mignot, J., Guilyardi, É., Masson‐Delmotte, V., Butler, P., Khodri, M., & Séférian, R. (2015) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/ncomms7545 · Cited by 151
Solar forcing synchronizes decadal North Atlantic climate variability
Thiéblemont, R., Matthes, K., Omrani, N., Kodera, K., & Hansen, F. (2015) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/ncomms9268 · Cited by 150
Atlantic overturning in decline?
Robson, J. I., Hodson, D., Hawkins, E., & Sutton, R. T. (2013) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo2050 · Cited by 142
Self-citationSkilful prediction of Sahel summer rainfall on inter-annual and multi-year timescales
Sheen, K. L., Smith, D. M., Dunstone, N., Eade, R., Rowell, D. P., & Vellinga, M. (2017) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/ncomms14966 · Cited by 127
On the Predictability of the Winter Euro-Atlantic Climate: Lagged Influence of Autumn Arctic Sea Ice
García‐Serrano, J., Frankignoul, C., Gastineau, G., & de la Cámara, Á. (2015) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-14-00472.1 · Cited by 111
Positive low cloud and dust feedbacks amplify tropical North Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
Yuan, T., Oreopoulos, L., Zelinka, M. D., Yu, H., Norris, J. R., Chin, M., Platnick, S. E., & Meyer, K. (2016) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2016gl067679 · Cited by 109
Chýlek, P., Folland, C. K., Dijkstra, H. A., Lesins, G. B., & Dubey, M. K. (2011) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2011gl047501 · Cited by 102
The North Atlantic Oscillation: Climatic Significance and Environmental Impact
Hurrell, J. W. (2003) · Geophysical monograph · doi:10.1029/gm134 · Cited by 87
Global atmospheric chemistry – which air matters
Prather, M. J., Zhu, X., Flynn, C. M., Strode, S. A., Rodríguez, J. M., Steenrod, S. D., Liu, J., Lamarque, J., Fiore, A. M., Horowitz, L. W., et al. (2017) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-17-9081-2017 · Cited by 61
An Anatomy of the Cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean in the 1960s and 1970s
Hodson, D., Robson, J. I., & Sutton, R. T. (2014) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-14-00301.1 · Cited by 57
Self-citationResponse to Comment on “The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation without a role for ocean circulation”
Clement, A., Cane, M. A., Murphy, L. N., Bellomo, K., Mauritsen, T., & Stevens, B. (2016) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aaf2575 · Cited by 47
Freeland, H. J., Freeland, H. J., Freeland, H. J., Freeland, H. J., Freeland, H. J., Freeland, H. J., Freeland, H. J., Freeland, H. J., Freeland, H. J., Freeland, H. J., et al. (2010) · Proceedings of OceanObs'09: Sustained Ocean Observations and Information for Society · doi:10.5270/oceanobs09.cwp.32
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Pantropical climate interactions
Cai, W., Wu, L., Lengaigne, M., Li, T., McGregor, S., Kug, J., Yu, J., Stuecker, M. F., Santoso, A., Li, X., et al. (2019) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aav4236 · Cited by 880
Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part I: Detection and Attribution
Knutson, T. R., Camargo, S. J., Chan, J. C. L., Emanuel, K., Ho, C.-H., Kossin, J. P., Mohapatra, M., Satoh, M., Sugi, M., Walsh, K. J. E., et al. (2019) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-d-18-0189.1 · Cited by 659
Zhang, R., Sutton, R. T., Danabasoglu, G., Kwon, Y., Marsh, R., Yeager, S. G., Amrhein, D. E., & Little, C. M. (2019) · Reviews of Geophysics · doi:10.1029/2019rg000644 · Cited by 633
Self-citationHistorical Simulations With HadGEM3‐GC3.1 for CMIP6
Andrews, M. B., Ridley, J., Wood, R., Andrews, T., Blockley, E., Booth, B. B. B., Burke, E., Dittus, A. J., Florek, P., Gray, L. J., et al. (2020) · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · doi:10.1029/2019ms001995 · Cited by 281
Self-citationTropospheric Ozone Assessment Report
Archibald, A. T., Neu, J. L., Elshorbany, Y. F., Cooper, O. R., Young, P. J., Akiyoshi, H., Cox, R. A., Coyle, M., Derwent, R. G., Deushi, M., et al. (2020) · Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene · doi:10.1525/elementa.2020.034 · Cited by 239
Self-citation
Metadata
- Authors
- Sutton, R. T., McCarthy, G. D., Robson, J., Sinha, B., Archibald, A. T., & Gray, L. J.
- Affiliations
- National University of Ireland, Maynooth (IE)
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science (GB)
- National Oceanography Centre (GB)
- University of Oxford (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Sutton, R. T.
- McCarthy, G. D.
- Archibald, A. T.
- Venue
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
- Publisher
- American Meteorological Society
- Published
- 2018-02-01
- Volume
- 99
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 415-425
- ISSN
- 0003-0007 (ISSN-L)
- 1520-0477
- OpenAlex
- W2736014213
- Cited by
- 117
- References
- 46
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 11 · 2023: 18 · 2022: 18 · 2021: 20 · 2020: 17 · 2019: 16 · 2018: 4
- FWCI
- 7.01
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (publishedVersion)
- Maynooth University ePrints and eTheses Archive (Maynooth University) (acceptedVersion)
- ePrints Soton (University of Southampton) (acceptedVersion)
- NERC Open Research Archive (Natural Environment Research Council) (acceptedVersion)
- CentAUR (University of Reading) (submittedVersion)
- Apollo (University of Cambridge) (submittedVersion)
- Apollo
- Funders
- Natural Environment Research Council (ncas10009, NE/P006779/1, NE/N018044/1, NE/N018028/1, noc010010, NE/N006038/1, noc010012, NE/N010965/1, NE/N006054/1, NE/N018001/1)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Keywords
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, North Atlantic sea surface temperature, ocean circulation, ocean heat content, radiative forcing, climate change attribution, decadal variability, climate predictability, Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
