Quantifying the Relevance of Cyclones for Precipitation Extremes

Abstract

Owing to the huge potential impact of precipitation extremes on society, it is important to better understand the mechanisms causing these events, and their variations with respect to a changing climate. In this study, the importance of a particular category of weather systems, namely cyclones, for the occurrence of regional-scale precipitation extremes is quantified globally using the ECMWF Interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) dataset. Such an event-based climatological approach complements previous case studies, which established the physical relationship between cyclones and heavy precipitation. A high percentage of precipitation extremes is found to be directly related to cyclones. Regional hot spots are identified where this percentage of cyclone-induced precipitation extremes exceeds 80% (e.g., in the Mediterranean region, Newfoundland, near Japan, and over the South China Sea). The results suggest that in these regions changes of heavy precipitation with global warming are specifically sensitive to variations in the dynamical forcing, for example, related to shifts of the storm tracks. Furthermore, properties of cyclones causing extreme precipitation are investigated. In the exit regions of the Northern Hemisphere storm tracks, these cyclones are on average slightly more intense than low pressure systems not associated with precipitation extremes, but no differences with respect to minimum core pressure are found in most other parts of the midlatitudes. The fundamental linkage between cyclones and precipitation extremes may thus provide guidance to forecasters involved in flood prediction, but it is unlikely that forecasting rules based on simple cyclone properties can be established.