The response of US summer rainfall to quadrupled CO 2 climate change in conventional and superparameterized versions of the NCAR community atmosphere model

Kooperman, Gabriel J.; Pritchard, Michael S.; Somerville, Richard C. J.

doi:10.1002/2014ms000306

Cited by 38Climate variability and modelsMeteorological Phenomena and SimulationsAtmospheric aerosols and clouds

The response of US summer rainfall to quadrupled CO 2 climate change in conventional and superparameterized versions of the NCAR community atmosphere model

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Kooperman, Gabriel J., Pritchard, Michael S., Somerville, Richard C. J.·2014·Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

DOI 10.1002/2014ms000306

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Abstract

Observations and regional climate modeling (RCM) studies demonstrate that global climate models (GCMs) are unreliable for predicting changes in extreme precipitation. Yet RCM climate change simulations are subject to boundary conditions provided by GCMs and do not interact with large‐scale dynamical feedbacks that may be critical to the overall regional response. Limitations of both global and regional modeling approaches contribute significant uncertainty to future rainfall projections. Progress requires a modeling framework capable of capturing the observed regional‐scale variability of rainfall intensity without sacrificing planetary scales. Here the United States summer rainfall response to quadrupled CO 2 climate change is investigated using conventional (CAM) and superparameterized (SPCAM) versions of the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model. The superparameterization approach, in which cloud‐resolving model arrays are embedded in GCM grid columns, improves rainfall statistics and convective variability in global simulations. A set of 5 year time‐slice simulations, with prescribed sea surface temperature and sea ice boundary conditions harvested from preindustrial and abrupt four times CO 2 coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM/CAM) simulations, are compared for CAM and SPCAM. The two models produce very different changes in mean precipitation patterns, which develop from differences in large‐scale circulation anomalies associated with the planetary‐scale response to warming. CAM shows a small decrease in overall rainfall intensity, with an increased contribution from the weaker parameterized convection and a decrease from large‐scale precipitation. SPCAM has the opposite response, a significant shift in rainfall occurrence toward higher precipitation rates including more intense propagating Central United States mesoscale convective systems in a four times CO 2 climate.

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Global models with conventional parameterizations are unable to simulate precipitation extremes from mesoscale convective systems over midlatitudes in summer, and so the results from these models are not reliable for regions and times of year in which these systems are important.
“However, global models with conventional parameterizations are unable to simulate precipitation extremes from mesoscale convective systems over midlatitudes in summer [43], and so the results from these models are not reliable for regions and times of year in which these systems are important.”
From Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change (2015) · cites this paper as [43]
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Important limitations in the ability of current models to simulate precipitation extremes have been recognized and are related in part to the use of parameterized convection.
“Important limitations in the ability of current models to simulate precipitation extremes have also been recognized and are related in part to the use of parameterized convection [38, 43, 58, 89, 93].”
From Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change (2015) · cites this paper as [43]

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Authors: Kooperman, G. J., Pritchard, M. S., & Somerville, R. C. J.
Affiliations: Scripps Institution of Oceanography (US)
University of California, Irvine (US)
Corresponding author: Kooperman, Gabriel J.
ORCID: Kooperman, Gabriel J.
Pritchard, Michael S.
Somerville, Richard C. J.
Venue: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Published: 2014-08-20
Volume: 6
Issue: 3
Pages: 859-882
ISSN: 1942-2466 (ISSN-L)
DOI: 10.1002/2014ms000306
OpenAlex: W2053768075
Cited by: 38
References: 65
Citations by year: 2026: 1 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 4 · 2022: 4 · 2021: 1 · 2020: 5 · 2019: 2 · 2018: 4 · 2017: 6 · 2016: 4 · 2015: 4 · 2014: 1
FWCI: 4.13
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: gold
doi.org
Licence: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor (vor)
Locations: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems (publishedVersion)
Funders: National Science Foundation, Science and Technology (ATM-0425247)
Department of Energy, Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research (DE-SC0000658)
National Science Foundation Postdoctoral Research Fellowship (AGS-1349579)
National Science Foundation, Extreme Science and Engineering Discovery Environment provided computing resources (TG-ATM100027, TG-ATM130043)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
Keywords: summer precipitation, superparameterization, regional climate modeling, heavy rainfall, mesoscale convective systems, large-scale circulation anomalies, rainfall intensity, United States precipitation

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The response of US summer rainfall to quadrupled CO 2 climate change in conventional and superparameterized versions of the NCAR community atmosphere model

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