Potentially Predictable Components of African Summer Rainfall in an SST-Forced GCM Simulation
Open accessAbstract
An ensemble of general circulation model (GCM) integrations forced by observed sea surface temperature (SST) represents the climate response to SST forcing as well as internal variability or “noise.” Signal-to-noise analysis is used to identify the most reproducible GCM patterns of African summer precipitation related to the SST forcing. Two of these potentially predictable components are associated with the precipitation of the Guinea Coast and Sahel regions and correlate well with observations. The GCM predictable component associated with rainfall in the Sahel region reproduces observed temporal variability on both interannual and decadal time scales, though with reduced amplitude.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
General circulation models fail to reproduce West African rainfall interannual variability.
“the general circulation models (GCMs) fail to reproduce WA rainfall interannual variability (Moron et al. 2003;Tippett 2006;Tippett and Giannini 2006).”
From Tropical Atlantic variability modes (1979-2002). Part I: Time-evolving SST modes related to West African rainfall (2008) · cites this paper as Tippett and Giannini 2006
The Introduction says that, among GCMs forced by observed sea-surface temperatures, only one reproduced the interannual component of Sahel rainfall. But the claim extends that limitation to GCMs and West African rainfall generally. The Summary and discussion says GCMs can simulate Sahel interannual variability and reports simulation skill along the Guinea Coast. (LLM, conf=0.87)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
Roeckner, E., Arpe, K., Bengtsson, L. O., Christoph, M., Claussen, M. A., Dümenil, L., Esch, M., Giorgetta, M. A., Schlese, U., & Schulzweida, U. (1996) · CentAUR (University of Reading) · doi:10.17617/2.1781494 · Cited by 1,382 · see citing works
Sahel rainfall and worldwide sea temperatures, 1901–85
Folland, C. K., Palmer, T. N., & Parker, D. E. (1986) · Nature · doi:10.1038/320602a0 · Cited by 1,147 · see citing works
Oceanic forcing of Sahel rainfall on interannual to interdecadal time scales.
Giannini, A., Saravanan, R., & Chang, P. (2003) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1089357 · Cited by 1,058 · see citing works
Self-citationVose, R. S., USDOE, W., Schmoyer, R. L., Steurer, P. M., Peterson, T., HEIM, R., Karl, T., & Eischeid, J. K. (1992) · doi:10.2172/10178730 · Cited by 491 · see citing works
Current approaches to seasonal to interannual climate predictions
Goddard, L., Mason, S., Zebiak, S., Ropelewski, C., Basher, R., & Cane, M. (2001) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.636 · Cited by 394 · see citing works
Rainfall changes in Africa: 1931–1960 to 1961–1990
Hulme, M. (1992) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.3370120703 · Cited by 313 · see citing works
Bader, J., & Latif, M. (2003) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2003gl018426 · Cited by 284 · see citing works
Multi-pattern fingerprint method for detection and attribution of climate change
Hasselmann, K. (1997) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s003820050185 · Cited by 275 · see citing works
Advancing dynamical prediction of Indian monsoon rainfall
Kumar, K. K. S., Hoerling, M. P., & Rajagopalan, B. (2005) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2004gl021979 · Cited by 236 · see citing works
Bretherton, C. S., & Battisti, D. S. (2000) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/1999gl010910 · Cited by 233 · see citing works
Prospects and Limitations of Seasonal Atmospheric GCM Predictions
Kumar, A., & Hoerling, M. P. (1995) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1995)076 · Cited by 193 · see citing works
Oceanic forcing of the late 20th century Sahel drought.
Lu, J., & Delworth, T. L. (2005) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2005gl023316 · Cited by 191 · see citing works
Multimodel Ensembling in Seasonal Climate Forecasting at IRI
Barnston, A. G., Mason, S. J., Goddard, L., DeWitt, D. G., & Zebiak, S. E. (2003) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-84-12-1783 · Cited by 190 · see citing works
On the signal-to-noise problem in atmospheric response studies
Hasselmann, K. (1979) · MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) · Cited by 179 · see citing works
Sensitivity of seasonal climate forecasts to persisted SST anomalies
Goddard, L., & Mason, S. J. (2002) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-002-0251-y · Cited by 91 · see citing works
THE RANKED PROBABILITY SCORE AND THE PROBABILITY SCORE: A COMPARISON
Murphy, A. H. (1970) · Monthly Weather Review · doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1970)098 · Cited by 89 · see citing works
Dynamics of the boreal summer African monsoon in the NSIPP1 atmospheric model.
Giannini, A., Saravanan, R., & Chang, P. (2005) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-005-0056-x · Cited by 71 · see citing works
Self-citationA Strategy for Verification of Weather Element Forecasts from an Ensemble Prediction System
Wilson, L., Burrows, W., & Lanzinger, A. (1999) · Monthly Weather Review · doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1999)127 · Cited by 53 · see citing works
Statistical–Dynamical Seasonal Forecasts of Central-Southwest Asian Winter Precipitation
Tippett, M. K., Goddard, L., & Barnston, A. G. (2005) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli3371.1 · Cited by 43 · see citing works
Self-citationSpecification of Wintertime North American Surface Temperature
DelSole, T., & Shukla, J. (2006) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli3704.1 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
Moron, V., Philippon, N., & Fontaine, B. (2004) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2004jd004760 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
Skill of Sahel rainfall variability in four atmospheric GCMs forced by prescribed SST.
Moron, V., Philippon, N., & Fontaine, B. (2003) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2003gl018006 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
Filtering of GCM simulated Sahel precipitation
Tippett, M. K. (2006) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2005gl024923 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Self-citationMcHugh, M. (2004) · doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017
Chenoweth, M. (1993) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1993)006
Latif, M. (1999) · doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012
Predictability and Information Theory. Part I: Measures of Predictability
DelSole, T. (2004) · Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences · doi:10.1175/1520-0469(2004)061
Carlin (2002) · doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015
Motha (1980) · doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1980)108
Mutai, C. (2000) · doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013
Rajagopalan (2002) · doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2002)130
Flagged first, then by citations
6 of the 38 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Rainfall over the African continent from the 19th through the 21st century
Nicholson, S. E., Funk, C. C., & Fink, A. H. (2017) · Global and Planetary Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2017.12.014 · Cited by 315 · see citing works
Sahel rainfall and decadal to multi-decadal sea surface temperature variability
Mohino, E., Janicot, S., & Bader, J. (2011) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0867-2 · Cited by 306 · see citing works
Roehrig, R., Bouniol, D., Guichard, F., Hourdin, F., & Redelsperger, J. (2013) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-12-00505.1 · Cited by 259 · see citing works
Robust Sahel drying in response to late 20th century forcings
Biasutti, M., & Giannini, A. (2006) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2006gl026067 · Cited by 252 · see citing works
Self-citationRodríguez‐Fonseca, B., Mohíno, E., Mechoso, C. R., Caminade, C., Biasutti, M., Gaetani, M., García‐Serrano, J., Vizy, E. K., Cook, K. H., Xue, Y., et al. (2015) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-14-00130.1 · Cited by 220 · see citing works
Floods in the Sahel: an analysis of anomalies, memory, and anticipatory learning
Tschakert, P., Sagoe, R., Ofori-Darko, G., & Codjoe, S. N. A. (2010) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9776-y · Cited by 197 · see citing works
Biasutti, M., Held, I. M., Sobel, A. H., & Giannini, A. (2008) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/2007jcli1896.1 · Cited by 188 · see citing works
Self-citationDistinguishing the Roles of Natural and Anthropogenically Forced Decadal Climate Variability
Solomon, A. B., Goddard, L., Kumar, A., Carton, J. A., Deser, C., Fukumori, I., Greene, A. M., Hegerl, G. C., Kirtman, B. P., Kushnir, Y., et al. (2010) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/2010bams2962.1 · Cited by 159 · see citing works
Polo, I., Rodríguez-Fonseca, B., Losada, T., & García-Serrano, J. (2008) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/2008jcli2607.1 · Cited by 155 · see citing works
Dynamics of the boreal summer African monsoon in the NSIPP1 atmospheric model.
Giannini, A., Saravanan, R., & Chang, P. (2005) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-005-0056-x · Cited by 71 · see citing works
Self-citationXue, Y., de Sales, F., Lau, W. K. M., Boone, A. A., Kim, K., Mechoso, C. R., Wang, G., Kucharski, F., Schiro, K. A., Hosaka, M., et al. (2016) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3224-2 · Cited by 49 · see citing works
Ndiaye, O., Goddard, L., & Ward, M. N. (2008) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.1767 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
Decadal prediction of the dominant West African monsoon rainfall modes
García‐Serrano, J., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Haarsma, R., & Polo, I. (2013) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1002/jgrd.50465 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Predictable Components and Singular Vectors
DelSole, T., & Tippett, M. K. (2008) · Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences · doi:10.1175/2007jas2401.1 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Self-citationSeasonal forecast quality of the West African monsoon rainfall regimes by multiple forecast systems
Rodrigues, L. R. L., García‐Serrano, J., & Doblas-Reyes, F. J. (2014) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1002/2013jd021316 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Djibo, A. G., Karambiri, H., Seidou, O., Sittichok, K., Philippon, N., Paturel, J., & Saley, H. M. (2015) · Climate · doi:10.3390/cli3030727 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
He, Y., & Lee, E. (2015) · Earth Interactions · doi:10.1175/ei-d-15-0028.1 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Duque-Villegas, M., Salazar, J. F., & Rendón, Á. M. (2019) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-10-631-2019 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
Filtering of GCM simulated Sahel precipitation
Tippett, M. K. (2006) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2005gl024923 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Self-citationNair, A., Acharya, N., Singh, A., Mohanty, U. C., & Panda, T. C. (2013) · Pure and Applied Geophysics · doi:10.1007/s00024-012-0633-y · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Étude du climat Ouest-Africain à l’aide du modèle atmosphérique régional M.A.R.
Kouassi, A. A., Assamoi, P., Bigot, S., Diawara, A., Schayes, G., Yoroba, F., & Kouassi, B. K. (2010) · Climatologie · doi:10.4267/climatologie.445 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Synchrony of trend shifts in Sahel boreal summer rainfall and global oceanic evaporation, 1950–2012
Diawara, A., Tachibana, Y., Oshima, K., Nishikawa, H., & Ando, Y. (2016) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-20-3789-2016 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
An analysis of multi‐model ensembles for seasonal climate predictions
Yan, X., & Tang, Y. (2012) · Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society · doi:10.1002/qj.2020 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Observed and CMIP5‐Simulated Radiative Flux Variability Over West Africa
Mackie, A., Wild, M., Brindley, H., Folini, D., & Palmer, P. I. (2020) · Earth and Space Science · doi:10.1029/2019ea001017 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
The role of targeted climate research at the IRI
Lyon, B., Giannini, A., González, P., & Robertson, A. W. (2014) · Earth Perspectives · doi:10.1186/2194-6434-1-18 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Self-citationDecadal rainfall variability over Southern Africa
Preece, D. J. (2008) · OpenGrey (Institut de l'Information Scientifique et Technique) · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Colman, A. W., Rowell, D. P., Foamouhoue, A. K., Ndiaye, O., Rodríguez‐Fonseca, B., Suarez, R., Yaka, P., Parker, D. J., & Diop‐Kane, M. (2017) · doi:10.1002/9781118391297.ch8 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Faye, M., Tine, D., Diallo, S., & Oumar Harouna, S. Y. (2022) · International Journal of Progressive Sciences and Technologies · doi:10.52155/ijpsat.v34.1.4554
- Authors
- Tippett, M. K., & Giannini, A.
- Affiliations
- Columbia University (US)
- Venue
- Journal of Climate
- Publisher
- American Meteorological Society
- Published
- 2006-07-01
- Volume
- 19
- Issue
- 13
- Pages
- 3133-3144
- ISSN
- 0894-8755 (ISSN-L)
- 1520-0442
- OpenAlex
- W2096599656
- Cited by
- 29
- References
- 38
- Citations by year
- 2022: 2 · 2020: 1 · 2019: 1 · 2017: 2 · 2016: 2 · 2015: 3 · 2014: 2 · 2013: 3 · 2012: 1
- FWCI
- 2.16
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Journal of Climate (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NA07GP0213)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Keywords
- sea surface temperature forcing, signal-to-noise analysis, Sahel rainfall, interannual variability, decadal variability, natural climate variability
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review