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Why Hypothesis Testers Should Spend Less Time Testing Hypotheses
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Abstract
For almost half a century, Paul Meehl educated psychologists about how the mindless use of null-hypothesis significance tests made research on theories in the social sciences basically uninterpretable. In response to the replication crisis, reforms in psychology have focused on formalizing procedures for testing hypotheses. These reforms were necessary and influential. However, as an unexpected consequence, psychological scientists have begun to realize that they may not be ready to test hypotheses. Forcing researchers to prematurely test hypotheses before they have established a sound "derivation chain" between test and theory is counterproductive. Instead, various nonconfirmatory research activities should be used to obtain the inputs necessary to make hypothesis tests informative. Before testing hypotheses, researchers should spend more time forming concepts, developing valid measures, establishing the causal relationships between concepts and the functional form of those relationships, and identifying boundary conditions and auxiliary assumptions. Providing these inputs should be recognized and incentivized as a crucial goal in itself. In this article, we discuss how shifting the focus to nonconfirmatory research can tie together many loose ends of psychology's reform movement and help us to develop strong, testable theories, as Paul Meehl urged.
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“Due to this lack of theory and robust data, we as AI researchers might simply not be ready to test specific hypotheses for certain contexts-a conclusion that is not unheard of in other research fields, such as psychology (Scheel et al., 2021) and human-robot interaction (Leichtmann et al., 2022).”
From Effects of Explainable Artificial Intelligence on trust and human behavior in a high-risk decision task (2023) · cites this paper as Scheel et al., 2021
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“Scheel et al. (2021) suggested that, before testing hypotheses confirmatorily, prior steps such as exploratory experimentation can help to discover relationships between variables and to explore boundaries on the basis of which more concrete theoretical assumptions can be made.”
From Effects of Explainable Artificial Intelligence on trust and human behavior in a high-risk decision task (2023) · cites this paper as Scheel et al., 2021
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“Thus, it becomes evident that more specific theorizing enables more precise operationalizations and more adequate empirical testing (Scheel et al., 2021).”
From Do Salient Social Norms Moderate Mortality Salience Effects? A (Challenging) Meta-Analysis of Terror Management Studies (2023) · cites this paper as Scheel et al., 2021
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“Even though the studies have confirmed the significance and influence of BPN Satisfaction for HCI research, the inconsistent use of measures is problematic in terms of comparability between studies and their replicability.”
From Development and Validation of a Basic Psychological Needs Scale for Technology Use (2024) · cites this paper as Scheel et al. (2021)
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“If a study fails to apply a valid measure, theoretical inferences cannot be made as the findings could equally measure random noise or a related but nevertheless distinct construct (Scheel et al., 2021).”
From Development and Validation of a Basic Psychological Needs Scale for Technology Use (2024) · cites this paper as Scheel et al., 2021
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Piecing together the puzzle of emotional consciousness
Engelen, T., & Mennella, R. (2023) · Neuroscience of Consciousness · doi:10.1093/nc/niad005 · Cited by 33
“Theory construction in this sense builds on a range of non-confirmatory activities, including descriptive research and exploratory experimentation, which are crucial to reach consensus on concept definition and measures’ validity, among the elements that are necessary for theory building (Scheel et al. 2021).”
BackgroundSiegelman, N., Elgort, I., Brysbaert, M., Agrawal, N., Amenta, S., Mijalković, J. A., Chang, C. S., Chernova, D., Chetail, F., Clarke, A. J. B., et al. (2023) · Language Learning · doi:10.1111/lang.12586 · Cited by 37
Riesthuis, P. (2024) · Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science · doi:10.1177/25152459241240722 · Cited by 30
“For instance, when researchers rely on benchmarks because no other information is available, it may be more of an indication that the research is simply not ready yet to test hypotheses and that more exploratory research is necessary (see Scheel et al., 2021).”
Gondek, D., Bernardi, L., McElroy, E., & Comolli, C. L. (2024) · Applied Research in Quality of Life · doi:10.1007/s11482-024-10274-4 · Cited by 37
“As this is an exploratory study, we do not draw any specific hypotheses in terms of their relationship with mental health and wellbeing (Scheel et al., 2020; Schmueli, 2010).”
BackgroundMayrhofer, R., Büchner, I. C., & Hevesi, J. (2024) · Frontiers in Psychology · doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2024.1390233 · Cited by 34
Heirene, R. M., & Gainsbury, S. (2021) · Addiction · doi:10.1111/add.15471 · Cited by 31
Adapting open science and pre‐registration to longitudinal research
Petersen, I. T., Apfelbaum, K. S., & McMurray, B. (2022) · Infant and Child Development · doi:10.1002/icd.2315 · Cited by 28
“This often derives from a lack of understanding of the derivation chain (Meehl, 1990; Scheel et al., 2021) — the chain of the assumption that links an underlying theory to observed behavior.”
BackgroundLangener, A. M., Stulp, G., Kas, M. J., & Bringmann, L. F. (2023) · JMIR Mental Health · doi:10.2196/42646 · Cited by 28
“This question is important in light of the call for a better conceptualization of (psychological) constructs to advance theory and measurement [30-32].”
Intergenerational Storytelling as a Developmental Resource in LGBTQ+ Communities
Weststrate, N. M., Turner, K., & McLean, K. C. (2023) · Journal of Homosexuality · doi:10.1080/00918369.2023.2202295 · Cited by 27
“…of descriptive approaches to new and complex questions, especially prior to statistical prediction, explanation, and intervention (Cooper, 2016; Scheel et al., 2021), we engaged in an empirical effort to describe the content and contexts of intergenerational storytelling about…”
BackgroundMalich, L., & Rehmann‐Sutter, C. (2022) · Review of General Psychology · doi:10.1177/10892680221083876 · Cited by 27
“Other psychologists have also pointed to the conceptual vagueness of hypotheses and insufficient definitions of key terms (Scheel, 2021; Scheel et al., 2021) Issues of validity are relevant for assessing the replication crisis.”
BackgroundCrüwell, S., & Evans, N. J. (2021) · Royal Society Open Science · doi:10.1098/rsos.210155 · Cited by 28
A systematic review of the neural correlates of well-being reveals no consistent associations
de Vries, L. P., van de Weijer, M. P., & Bartels, M. (2023) · Neuroscience & Biobehavioral Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.neubiorev.2023.105036 · Cited by 29
“research instead of hypothesis driven research (Scheel et al., 2020).”
The Cambridge Handbook of Research Methods and Statistics for the Social and Behavioral Sciences
Wehbe, Y. S., Shackelford, T. K., & Al-Shawaf, L. (2023) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009010054 · Cited by 36
Rauthmann, J. F. (2020) · European Journal of Personality · doi:10.1002/per.2310 · Cited by 25
“Nonetheless, both types of scientists would (hopefully) agree that we need proper conceptual precision, logical reasoning, valid measures, and good data quality to be at all able to properly ‘ test ’ any hypotheses (see Scheel, Tiokhin, Isager, & Lakens, 2020) or solve any problem, respectively.”
BackgroundThe Benefits of Candidly Reporting Consumer Research
Janiszewski, C. A., & van Osselaer, S. M. J. (2021) · Journal of Consumer Psychology · doi:10.1002/jcpy.1263 · Cited by 25
Hölle, D., Blum, S., Kissner, S., Debener, S., & Bleichner, M. G. (2022) · Frontiers in Neuroergonomics · doi:10.3389/fnrgo.2022.793061 · Cited by 25
“Before studying sound processing in everyday life in a hypothesis-driven manner with this system, each component has to be carefully tested and validated (Scheel et al., 2021).”
BackgroundMeans to valuable exploration: I. The blending of confirmation and exploration and how to resolve it
Höfler, M., Scherbaum, S., Kanske, P., McDonald, B., & Miller, R. (2022) · Meta-Psychology · doi:10.15626/mp.2021.2837 · Cited by 32
Black, L., Panayiotou, M., & Humphrey, N. (2022) · JCPP Advances · doi:10.1002/jcv2.12125 · Cited by 25
“While such exploratory approaches play an important role, and flexibility can occur even after registration (Scheel et al., 2020), we suggest the content of measures should be attended to, particularly when combined.”
BackgroundMorrow, E. L., Zhao, F., Turkstra, L. S., Toma, C. L., Mutlu, B., & Duff, M. C. (2021) · JMIR Rehabilitation and Assistive Technologies · doi:10.2196/26586 · Cited by 24
“Here, we present descriptive data that may form the foundation for future hypothesis-driven intervention research in this area [24].”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialA Manifesto for More Productive Psychological Games Research
Ballou, N. (2023) · Games Research and Practice · doi:10.1145/3582929 · Cited by 27
“[125] provide a useful overview of inputs to the derivation chain, as well as research activities that can bolster it.”
BackgroundMurayama, K., & von Keyserlingk, L. (2025) · Educational Psychologist · doi:10.1080/00461520.2025.2473894 · Cited by 40
“Educational psychologists are investing too much time in applying and testing existing theories and not enough in articulating and developing theories (Borsboom et al., 2021; Scheel et al., 2021).”
Profiling misinformation susceptibility
Kyrychenko, Y., Koo, H. J., Maertens, R., Roozenbeek, J., van der Linden, S., & Götz, F. M. (2025) · Personality and Individual Differences · doi:10.1016/j.paid.2025.113177 · Cited by 38
STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES IN PRECISION METROLOGY, APPLICATIONS AND BEST PRACTICES
Adeleke, A. K., Montero, D. J. P., Olu-lawal, K. A., & Olajiga, O. K. (2024) · Engineering Science & Technology Journal · doi:10.51594/estj.v5i3.944 · Cited by 23
Otterbring, T., & Folwarczny, M. (2024) · Food Quality and Preference · doi:10.1016/j.foodqual.2024.105175 · Cited by 27
Quintana, D. S. (2021) · Psychoneuroendocrinology · doi:10.1016/j.psyneuen.2021.105642 · Cited by 22
Can Construction Grammar Be Proven Wrong?
Cappelle, B. (2024) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009343213 · Cited by 22
An application of the COA Framework: Building a sound foundation for organizational resilience
Shela, V., Danks, N. P., Ramayah, T., & Ahmad, N. H. (2024) · Journal of Business Research · doi:10.1016/j.jbusres.2024.114702 · Cited by 22
Syed, M. (2021) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/u89e2 · Cited by 21
The Conceptual, Cunning, and Conclusive Experiment in Psychology
Debrouwere, S., & Rosseel, Y. (2021) · Perspectives on Psychological Science · doi:10.1177/17456916211026947 · Cited by 20
Paths in strange spaces: A comment on preregistrationPreprint
Navarro, D. (2020) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/wxn58 · Cited by 20
Open science considerations for descriptive research in developmental science
Kosie, J. E., & Lew‐Williams, C. (2022) · Infant and Child Development · doi:10.1002/icd.2377 · Cited by 28
“In reality, however, most work — descriptive included — falls on a continuum between confirmatory and exploratory (Scheel et al., 2021).”
BackgroundWhat We Mean When We Say Semantic: A multidiscilpinary semantic glossaryPreprint
Reilly, J. J., Shain, C., Borghesani, V., Kuhnke, P., Vigliocco, G., Peelle, J. E., Mahon, B. Z., Buxbaum, L. J., Majid, A., Brysbaert, M., et al. (2023) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/xrnb2 · Cited by 19
van Iperen, L. P., JONGE, J. D., Gevers, J., & Vos, S. B. (2021) · Psychology of sport and exercise · doi:10.1016/j.psychsport.2021.102082 · Cited by 18
A critique of using the labels confirmatory and exploratory in modern psychological research
Jacobucci, R. (2022) · Frontiers in Psychology · doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2022.1020770 · Cited by 24
“Of the many factors which play a part in the replication crisis, a consistent theme is that researchers take liberty with several steps in proceeding from concept formation to deriving statistical predictions (Scheel et al., 2020).”
BackgroundInfluentialAmimakmur, S. A., Sаifi, M., Damayanti, C. R., & Hutahayan, B. (2024) · Journal of Open Innovation Technology Market and Complexity · doi:10.1016/j.joitmc.2024.100318 · Cited by 18
Methodological Gaps in Studying the Oral-Systemic Disease Connection
Raittio, E. J., & Farmer, J. W. (2021) · Journal of Dental Research · doi:10.1177/0022034520982972 · Cited by 17
Metadata
- Authors
- Scheel, A. M., Tiokhin, L., Isager, P. M., & Lakens, D.
- Affiliations
- Eindhoven University of Technology (NL)
- Corresponding author
- Scheel, Anne M.
- Venue
- Perspectives on Psychological Science
- Publisher
- SAGE Publications
- Published
- 2020-12-16
- Volume
- 16
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 744-755
- ISSN
- 1745-6916 (ISSN-L)
- 1745-6924
- PMC
- PMC8273364
- OpenAlex
- W3113132966
- Cited by
- 382
- References
- 95
- Citations by year
- 2026: 32 · 2025: 48 · 2024: 82 · 2023: 69 · 2022: 80 · 2021: 59 · 2020: 12
- FWCI
- 143.27
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Locations
- Perspectives on Psychological Science (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- TU/e Research Portal (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PsyArXiv (OSF Preprints) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- PsyArXiv (OSF Preprints) (submittedVersion)
- TU/e Research Portal (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek (VIDI grant 452-17-013)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Psychology › General Psychology › Academic and Historical Perspectives in Psychology
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Psychology Research and Bibliometrics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Meta-analysis and systematic reviews
- Keywords
- null hypothesis significance testing, hypothesis testing, replication crisis, Paul Meehl, theory testing, measurement validity, auxiliary hypotheses, boundary conditions
- MeSH terms
- Humans, Psychological Theory, Psychology, Causality
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