Fear, Populism, and the Geopolitical Landscape: The “Sleeper Effect” of Neurotic Personality Traits on Regional Voting Behavior in the 2016 Brexit and Trump Elections
Open accessAbstract
Two recent electoral results—Donald Trump’s election as U.S. president and the UK’s Brexit vote—have reignited debate on the psychological factors underlying voting behavior. Both campaigns promoted themes of fear, lost pride, and loss aversion, which are relevant to the personality dimension of neuroticism, a construct previously not associated with voting behavior. To that end, we investigate whether regional prevalence of neurotic personality traits (neuroticism, anxiety, and depression) predicted voting behavior in the United States ( N = 3,167,041) and the United Kingdom ( N = 417,217), comparing these effects with previous models, which have emphasized the roles of openness and conscientiousness. Neurotic traits positively predicted share of Brexit and Trump votes, and Trump gains from Romney. Many of these effects persisted in additional robustness tests controlling for regional industrial heritage, political attitude, and socioeconomic features, particularly in the United States. The “sleeper effect” of neurotic traits may profoundly impact the geopolitical landscape.
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There is evidence that threats like scarcity and pathogen prevalence are associated with prejudice.
“Indeed, there is evidence that threats like scarcity and pathogen prevalence are associated with prejudice [32–40].”
From Ecological and cultural factors underlying the global distribution of prejudice (2019) · cites this paper as [32]
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“Across contemporary nations [24] and US states [29], cultural tightness is negatively correlated with openness to new ideas and societal innovations that disrupt the social order [31–32]”
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- Authors
- Obschonka, M., Stuetzer, M., Rentfrow, P. J., Lee, N., Potter, J., & Gosling, S. D.
- Affiliations
- Queensland University of Technology (AU)
- Technische Universität Ilmenau (DE)
- University of Cambridge (GB)
- London School of Economics and Political Science (GB)
- Atof Inc., Cambridge, MA, USA
- The University of Melbourne (AU)
- Corresponding author
- Obschonka, Martin
- Venue
- Social Psychological and Personality Science
- Publisher
- SAGE Publications
- Published
- 2018-03-08
- Volume
- 9
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 285-298
- ISSN
- 1948-5506 (ISSN-L)
- 1948-5514
- OpenAlex
- W2783584148
- Cited by
- 62
- References
- 36
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 9 · 2023: 7 · 2022: 9 · 2021: 10 · 2020: 17 · 2019: 4 · 2018: 1 · 2017: 1
- FWCI
- 34.88
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- orcid.org
- Locations
- Social Psychological and Personality Science (publishedVersion)
- London School of Economics and Political Science Research Online (London School of Economics and Political Science) (submittedVersion)
- London School of Economics and Political Science Theses Online (London School of Economics and Political Science) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Electoral Systems and Political Participation
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › Personality Traits and Psychology
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Populism, Right-Wing Movements
- Keywords
- neuroticism, voting behavior, populism, fear, Brexit, Donald Trump, anxiety, depression, personality traits, political attitudes, socioeconomic factors, industrial heritage, sleeper effect, geopolitics
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