Ecological and cultural factors underlying the global distribution of prejudice
Open accessAbstract
Prejudiced attitudes and political nationalism vary widely around the world, but there has been little research on what predicts this variation. Here we examine the ecological and cultural factors underlying the worldwide distribution of prejudice. We suggest that cultures grow more prejudiced when they tighten cultural norms in response to destabilizing ecological threats. A set of seven archival analyses, surveys, and experiments (∑N = 3,986,402) find that nations, American states, and pre-industrial societies with tighter cultural norms show the most prejudice based on skin color, religion, nationality, and sexuality, and that tightness predicts why prejudice is often highest in areas of the world with histories of ecological threat. People's support for cultural tightness also mediates the link between perceived ecological threat and intentions to vote for nationalist politicians. Results replicate when controlling for economic development, inequality, conservatism, residential mobility, and shared cultural heritage. These findings offer a cultural evolutionary perspective on prejudice, with implications for immigration, intercultural conflict, and radicalization.
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TL;DR
Seven archival, survey, and experimental studies (∑N = 3,986,402) find that cultures with tighter norms show more prejudice across nations, US states, and pre-industrial societies, and that ecological threat predicts prejudice through cultural tightness. The authors argue this offers a cultural evolutionary account of prejudice and nationalist political support.
Key findings
- Across 25 current-day nations, nation-level cultural tightness predicted prejudice, b = .05, SE = .02, t = 3.25, p = .004, R²level 2 = .30, controlling for GDP per capita, GINI, and WVS wave; tightness also predicted each prejudice indicator, including immigrants, OR = 1.18, p < .001, and unmarried cohabitants, OR = 1.38, p < .001.
- Across the 50 US states, tightness predicted explicit prejudice, b = .02, SE = .003, t = 7.19, p < .001, R²level 2 = .64, controlling for income, conservatism, and residential mobility; conservatism’s effect was nullified when tightness was included. Tightness also predicted implicit prejudice, b = .002, SE = .001, t = 3.82, p < .001, R² = .11.
- Across 47 pre-industrial societies, tightness predicted prejudice, b = .85, SE = .28, t = 2.98, p = .005, R²level 1 = .09, controlling for shared language family and residential mobility.
- Threat-to-tightness-to-prejudice mediation replicated across studies; in Study 5, experimentally salient ecological threat increased support for tightness, F(2,1046) = 5.18, p = .006, and support for tightness predicted prejudice, b = .06, SE = .02, t = 2.37, p = .01. In Studies 6–7, threat predicted intention to vote for Donald Trump and Marine Le Pen via tightness and prejudice, with significant serial indirect effects and no significant direct effects.
Methods
- Seven studies combined archival analyses, surveys, and an experiment: Study 1 used 117,157 individuals from 25 countries in the World Values Survey; Study 2 used 11,577 individuals from the 50 US states in the General Social Survey; Study 3 used 3,855,737 US residents from Project Implicit (2002–2016); Study 4 used 47 Standard Cross-Cultural Sample societies; Study 5 was an experiment with 1,049 participants from Singapore, Germany, the USA, and Brazil; Studies 6–7 surveyed 562 Americans during the 2016 primary and 320 French respondents before the 2017 election.
- Measures included prejudice indices (e.g., unwillingness to live near stigmatized groups, opposition to relatives marrying minority groups, implicit association tests, cross-cultural hostility/violence codes, and survey prejudice items), cultural tightness (nation and state scores, ethnographic coding across six domains, and individual support-for-tightness scales), and ecological threat indices (e.g., population density, food deprivation, disease, disaster, conflict, parasite stress, resource scarcity, famine, warfare, and perceived threats).
- Analyses used multilevel models with random intercepts across nations, states, language families, or participants’ states; controls included economic development, inequality, conservatism, residential mobility, and shared cultural heritage; mediation was tested with Monte Carlo simulations, plus ANOVA, regression, and serial mediation path models.
Limitations
- The paper states that its correlational studies do not show that tightness causes prejudice, that tightness is not the only cultural factor linked with prejudice, and that the authors did not see evidence of mutual influence/feedback between tightness and prejudice; they call for longitudinal, time-series, and phylogenetic work.
- Evident from the text: mediation analyses are largely cross-sectional or correlational, and Study 5 notes that measuring a mediator cannot establish a causal relationship on an outcome variable.
- Evident from the text: Study 3 relies on Project Implicit users who freely take implicit association tests, so that sample is not a probability sample; Study 4 uses ethnographic codes assigned by trained research assistants.
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Claims the paper makes
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- Findingown data
Nations, American states, and pre-industrial societies with tighter cultural norms show the most prejudice based on skin color, religion, nationality, and sexuality.
“A set of seven archival analyses, surveys, and experiments (∑N = 3,986,402) find that nations, American states, and pre-industrial societies with tighter cultural norms show the most prejudice based on skin color, religion, nationality, and sexuality”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
People's support for cultural tightness mediates the link between perceived ecological threat and intentions to vote for nationalist politicians.
“People’s support for cultural tightness also mediates the link between perceived ecological threat and intentions to vote for nationalist politicians.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Tightness predicts why prejudice is often highest in areas of the world with histories of ecological threat.
“and that tightness predicts why prejudice is often highest in areas of the world with histories of ecological threat.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Support for cultural tightness predicted higher prejudice.
“In a general linear model, support for cultural tightness did indeed predict higher prejudice, b = .06, SE = .02, t = 2.37, p = .01, R2 = .01.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The 10 incomplete statements measure support for cultural tightness.
- Findingown data
Cultural tightness correlated with prejudice across non-industrial societies, b = .85, SE = .28, t = 2.98, p = .005, R2 level 1 = .09.
“This prediction was supported, b = .85, SE = .28, t = 2.98, p = .005, R2 level 1 = .09.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
- Findingown data
Cultural tightness significantly predicted prejudice against Asians, b = .01, SE = .003, t = 3.94, p < .001, R2 level 2 = .46.
“Cultural tightness significantly predicted each item in our prejudice scale, positively correlating with prejudice against African Americans, b = .02, SE = .003, t = 7.17, p < .001, R2 level 2 = .63, Asians, b = .01, SE = .003, t = 3.94, p < .001, R2 level 2 = .46, gay people, b = .02, SE = .004, t = 3.26, p = .002, R2 level 2 = .39, Hispanic people, b = .01, SE = .003, t = 4.01, p < .001, R2”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Nation-level tightness robustly predicted prejudice across nations, b = .05, SE = .02, t = 3.25, p = .004, R2level 2 = .30, even with control variables.
“In support of this prediction, nation-level tightness robustly predicted prejudice across nations, b = .05, SE = .02, t = 3.25, p = .004, R2level 2 = .30 (see Fig 1), even with our control variables.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Ecological threat was associated with cultural tightness across states, b = 7.64, SE = 1.45, t = 5.26, p < .001, R2 = .18.
“Ecological threat was associated with both cultural tightness, b = 7.64, SE = 1.45, t = 5.26, p < .001, R2 = .18, and implicit prejudice, b = .02, SE = .007, t = 2.47, p = .02, R2 = .05, but the link between tightness and prejudice remained significant when controlling for threat, b = .002, SE = .001, t = 2.74, p = .009, R2 = .06.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Even controlling for shared heritage, tightness was associated with greater prejudice across non-industrial societies.
“Even controlling for shared heritage, tightness was associated with greater prejudice, replicating our pattern of results in current-day groups.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Ecological threat did not directly predict prejudice across nations, b = .008, SE = .009, t = .91, p = .38, R2level 2 = .04.
“Preliminary analyses showed that ecological threat directly predicted tightness across nations, b = .25, SE = .08, t = 3.23, p = .004, R2level 2 = .26, but did not directly predict prejudice, b = .008, SE = .009, t = .91, p = .38, R2level 2 = .04.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Ecological threat predicted prejudice across non-industrial societies, b = 1.25, SE = .20, t = 6.18, p < .001, R2 level 1 = .36.
“Consistent with Studies 2–3, ecological threat predicted both cultural tightness, b = .25, SE = .13, t = 1.92, p = .05, R2 level 1 = .03, and prejudice, b = 1.25, SE = .20, t = 6.18, p < .001, R2 level 1 = .36.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Threat remained a non-significant predictor of prejudice when controlling for cultural tightness, b = -.01, SE = .009, t = -0.75, p = .46, R2level 2 < .001.
“Threat remained a non-significant predictor of prejudice when controlling for cultural tightness, b = -.01, SE = .009, t = -0.75, p = .46, R2level 2 < .001.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Cultural tightness significantly predicted prejudice against Jewish people, b = .01, SE = .003, t = 2.97, p = .005, R2 level 2 = .36.
“Cultural tightness significantly predicted each item in our prejudice scale, positively correlating with prejudice against African Americans, b = .02, SE = .003, t = 7.17, p < .001, R2 level 2 = .63, Asians, b = .01, SE = .003, t = 3.94, p < .001, R2 level 2 = .46, gay people, b = .02, SE = .004, t = 3.26, p = .002, R2 level 2 = .39, Hispanic people, b = .01, SE = .003, t = 4.01, p < .001, R2”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
When cultural tightness and ecological threat were modeled simultaneously, tightness significantly predicted prejudice, b = .02, SE = .003, t = 5.54, p < .001, R2level 2 = .50.
“Moreover, when cultural tightness and ecological threat were modeled simultaneously, tightness significantly predicted prejudice, b = .02, SE = .003, t = 5.54, p < .001, R2level 2 = .50.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Including tightness and conservatism in the same model nullified the effect of conservatism on prejudice, b = -.05, SE = .03, t = -1.30, p = .20, R2 level 2 = .02.
“In fact, whereas conservatism alone was a significant predictor of prejudice, b = .15, SE = .04, t = 4.11, p < .001, R2 level 2 = .05, including tightness and conservatism in the same model nullified the effect of conservatism on prejudice, b = -.05, SE = .03, t = -1.30, p = .20, R2 level 2 = .02, suggesting that the link between political conservatism and explicit prejudice was significant by”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Cultural tightness mediated the relationship between ecological threat and prejudice across states, 95% CIs [.02, .20].
“Our data therefore met the conditions for probing mediation [47], and a Monte Carlo simulation confirmed that cultural tightness mediated the relationship between ecological threat and prejudice, 95% CIs [.02, .20].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [47] AF Hayes, 2009, Beyond Baron and Kenny: Statistical mediation analysis in the new millennium, Communication Monographs source
Not checked in the free run.
- Findingown data
Cultural tightness was positively associated with implicit prejudice, b = .002, SE = .001, t = 3.82, p < .001, R2 = .11.
“As in Studies 1 and 2, our first prediction—that cultural tightness would be positively associated with implicit prejudice—was supported, b = .002, SE = .001, t = 3.82, p < .001, R2 = .11 (see Fig 3).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Conservatism also significantly and positively predicted implicit prejudice when modeled alongside cultural tightness, b = .02, SE = .007, t = 2.85, p = .007, R2 = .06.
“Unlike Study 2’s effects on explicit prejudice, conservatism also significantly and positively predicted implicit prejudice when modeled alongside cultural tightness, b = .02, SE = .007, t = 2.85, p = .007, R2 = .06.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Ecological threat had no total effect on prejudice.
“Interestingly, ecological threat had no total effect on prejudice, b = .06, SE = .09, t = .68, p = .50, R2 < .001”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The 10 incomplete statements measure support for cultural tightness.
- Findingown data
Tightness correlated with prejudice towards people who spoke a different language, OR = 1.10, z = 2.01, p = .04.
“Indeed, tightness correlated with each indicator of prejudice, predicting prejudice towards people of a different race, OR = 1.13, z = 2.92, p = .004, people of a different religion, OR = 1.20, z = 3.81, p < .001, people who spoke a different language, OR = 1.10, z = 2.01, p = .04, gay people, , OR = 1.09, z = 2.14, p = .03, immigrants, OR = 1.18, z = 4.17, p < .001, and unmarried cohabitants, OR”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Tightness correlated with prejudice towards unmarried cohabitants, OR = 1.38, z = 6.17, p < .001.
“Indeed, tightness correlated with each indicator of prejudice, predicting prejudice towards people of a different race, OR = 1.13, z = 2.92, p = .004, people of a different religion, OR = 1.20, z = 3.81, p < .001, people who spoke a different language, OR = 1.10, z = 2.01, p = .04, gay people, , OR = 1.09, z = 2.14, p = .03, immigrants, OR = 1.18, z = 4.17, p < .001, and unmarried cohabitants, OR”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Cultural tightness significantly predicted prejudice against Hispanic people, b = .01, SE = .003, t = 4.01, p < .001, R2 level 2 = .40.
“Cultural tightness significantly predicted each item in our prejudice scale, positively correlating with prejudice against African Americans, b = .02, SE = .003, t = 7.17, p < .001, R2 level 2 = .63, Asians, b = .01, SE = .003, t = 3.94, p < .001, R2 level 2 = .46, gay people, b = .02, SE = .004, t = 3.26, p = .002, R2 level 2 = .39, Hispanic people, b = .01, SE = .003, t = 4.01, p < .001, R2”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Ecological threat was significantly associated with prejudice across states, b = .12, SE = .03, t = 3.51, p = .001, R2level 2 = .29.
“Ecological threat was significantly associated with both cultural tightness, b = 4.14, SE = .05, t = 91.48, p < .001, R2 = .04, and prejudice, b = .12, SE = .03, t = 3.51, p = .001, R2level 2 = .29, across states.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Ecological threat was associated with implicit prejudice across states, b = .02, SE = .007, t = 2.47, p = .02, R2 = .05.
“Ecological threat was associated with both cultural tightness, b = 7.64, SE = 1.45, t = 5.26, p < .001, R2 = .18, and implicit prejudice, b = .02, SE = .007, t = 2.47, p = .02, R2 = .05, but the link between tightness and prejudice remained significant when controlling for threat, b = .002, SE = .001, t = 2.74, p = .009, R2 = .06.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Ecological threat predicted cultural tightness across non-industrial societies, b = .25, SE = .13, t = 1.92, p = .05, R2 level 1 = .03.
“Consistent with Studies 2–3, ecological threat predicted both cultural tightness, b = .25, SE = .13, t = 1.92, p = .05, R2 level 1 = .03, and prejudice, b = 1.25, SE = .20, t = 6.18, p < .001, R2 level 1 = .36.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
There was a significant indirect association between ecological threat and prejudice across nations through cultural tightness, 95% CIs [.003, .03].
“Using Monte Carlo simulation, which is well-suited for testing multi-level mediation [48], we confirmed that there was a significant indirect association between ecological threat and prejudice across nations through cultural tightness, 95% CIs [.003, .03].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [48] KJ Preacher, 2012, Advantages of Monte Carlo confidence intervals for indirect effects, Communication Methods and Measures source
Not checked in the free run.
- Findingown data
Participants exposed to ecological threat held more favorable attitudes towards cultural tightness than participants in the neutral control or the negativity control.
“An ANOVA identified a significant omnibus effect, F(2,1046) = 5.18, p = .006, such that participants exposed to ecological threat held more favorable attitudes towards tightness than participants in the neutral control, Mdiff = .36, Tukey HSD p = .01, or in the negativity control, Mdiff = .32, Tukey HSD p = .02.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The 10 incomplete statements measure support for cultural tightness.
- Findingown data
Tightness predicted prejudice controlling for threat across nations, b = .06, SE = .02, t = 2.94, p = .009, R2level 2 = .29.
“Since we had already confirmed (a), and a multiple regression confirmed (b), b = .06, SE = .02, t = 2.94, p = .009, R2level 2 = .29, we tested for an indirect effect.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Cultural tightness mediated the relationship between ecological threat and implicit prejudice, CIs [.01,.04].
“A Monte Carlo simulation confirmed significant mediation, and ecological threat did not reach significance in this model, indicating full mediation, CIs [.01,.04], b = .03, SE = .08, t = 0.39, p = .70, R2 < .01.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The link between tightness and implicit prejudice remained significant when controlling for threat, b = .002, SE = .001, t = 2.74, p = .009, R2 = .06.
“Ecological threat was associated with both cultural tightness, b = 7.64, SE = 1.45, t = 5.26, p < .001, R2 = .18, and implicit prejudice, b = .02, SE = .007, t = 2.47, p = .02, R2 = .05, but the link between tightness and prejudice remained significant when controlling for threat, b = .002, SE = .001, t = 2.74, p = .009, R2 = .06.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Cultural tightness mediated the relationship between ecological threat and prejudice across non-industrial societies, 95% CIs [.02, .37].
“Tightness remained a significant predictor of prejudice when it was modeled alongside threat, b = .50, SE = .23, t = 2.19, p = .03, R2 level 1 = .08, and a Monte Carlo simulation confirmed significant mediation, 95% CIs [.02, .37].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Cultural tightness significantly predicted prejudice against gay people, b = .02, SE = .004, t = 3.26, p = .002, R2 level 2 = .39.
“Cultural tightness significantly predicted each item in our prejudice scale, positively correlating with prejudice against African Americans, b = .02, SE = .003, t = 7.17, p < .001, R2 level 2 = .63, Asians, b = .01, SE = .003, t = 3.94, p < .001, R2 level 2 = .46, gay people, b = .02, SE = .004, t = 3.26, p = .002, R2 level 2 = .39, Hispanic people, b = .01, SE = .003, t = 4.01, p < .001, R2”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
There was no support for an alternative model where prejudice mediated the relationship between threat and tightness.
“There was no support for an alternative model where prejudice mediated the relationship between threat and tightness, further supporting our theoretical model.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Tightness correlated with prejudice towards people of a different religion, OR = 1.20, z = 3.81, p < .001.
“Indeed, tightness correlated with each indicator of prejudice, predicting prejudice towards people of a different race, OR = 1.13, z = 2.92, p = .004, people of a different religion, OR = 1.20, z = 3.81, p < .001, people who spoke a different language, OR = 1.10, z = 2.01, p = .04, gay people, , OR = 1.09, z = 2.14, p = .03, immigrants, OR = 1.18, z = 4.17, p < .001, and unmarried cohabitants, OR”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Tightness correlated with prejudice towards immigrants, OR = 1.18, z = 4.17, p < .001.
“Indeed, tightness correlated with each indicator of prejudice, predicting prejudice towards people of a different race, OR = 1.13, z = 2.92, p = .004, people of a different religion, OR = 1.20, z = 3.81, p < .001, people who spoke a different language, OR = 1.10, z = 2.01, p = .04, gay people, , OR = 1.09, z = 2.14, p = .03, immigrants, OR = 1.18, z = 4.17, p < .001, and unmarried cohabitants, OR”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Ecological threat was significantly associated with cultural tightness across states, b = 4.14, SE = .05, t = 91.48, p < .001, R2 = .04.
“Ecological threat was significantly associated with both cultural tightness, b = 4.14, SE = .05, t = 91.48, p < .001, R2 = .04, and prejudice, b = .12, SE = .03, t = 3.51, p = .001, R2level 2 = .29, across states.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Cultural tightness significantly predicted prejudice against African Americans, b = .02, SE = .003, t = 7.17, p < .001, R2 level 2 = .63.
“Cultural tightness significantly predicted each item in our prejudice scale, positively correlating with prejudice against African Americans, b = .02, SE = .003, t = 7.17, p < .001, R2 level 2 = .63, Asians, b = .01, SE = .003, t = 3.94, p < .001, R2 level 2 = .46, gay people, b = .02, SE = .004, t = 3.26, p = .002, R2 level 2 = .39, Hispanic people, b = .01, SE = .003, t = 4.01, p < .001, R2”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Tightness correlated with prejudice towards gay people, OR = 1.09, z = 2.14, p = .03.
“Indeed, tightness correlated with each indicator of prejudice, predicting prejudice towards people of a different race, OR = 1.13, z = 2.92, p = .004, people of a different religion, OR = 1.20, z = 3.81, p < .001, people who spoke a different language, OR = 1.10, z = 2.01, p = .04, gay people, , OR = 1.09, z = 2.14, p = .03, immigrants, OR = 1.18, z = 4.17, p < .001, and unmarried cohabitants, OR”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The effect of support for cultural tightness on prejudice did not significantly vary across tight and loose countries.
“This effect did not significantly vary across tight and loose countries, b = -.09, SE = .05, t = -1.70, p = .09, R2 = .002.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The 10 incomplete statements measure support for cultural tightness.
- Findingown data
Ecological threat directly predicted tightness across nations, b = .25, SE = .08, t = 3.23, p = .004, R2level 2 = .26.
“Preliminary analyses showed that ecological threat directly predicted tightness across nations, b = .25, SE = .08, t = 3.23, p = .004, R2level 2 = .26, but did not directly predict prejudice, b = .008, SE = .009, t = .91, p = .38, R2level 2 = .04.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Tightness remained a significant predictor of prejudice when modeled alongside threat across non-industrial societies, b = .50, SE = .23, t = 2.19, p = .03, R2 level 1 = .08.
“Tightness remained a significant predictor of prejudice when it was modeled alongside threat, b = .50, SE = .23, t = 2.19, p = .03, R2 level 1 = .08, and a Monte Carlo simulation confirmed significant mediation, 95% CIs [.02, .37].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Cultural tightness was positively associated with implicit anti-gay prejudice, b = .02, SE = .006, t = 3.04, p = .004, R2level 2 = .15.
“This relationship also reached significance when our overall implicit prejudice index was decomposed into implicit racism, b = .005, SE = .001, t = 4.48, p < .001, R2level 2 = .32, and implicit anti-gay prejudice, b = .02, SE = .006, t = 3.04, p = .004, R2level 2 = .15.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Conservatism alone was a significant predictor of prejudice, b = .15, SE = .04, t = 4.11, p < .001, R2 level 2 = .05.
“In fact, whereas conservatism alone was a significant predictor of prejudice, b = .15, SE = .04, t = 4.11, p < .001, R2 level 2 = .05, including tightness and conservatism in the same model nullified the effect of conservatism on prejudice, b = -.05, SE = .03, t = -1.30, p = .20, R2 level 2 = .02, suggesting that the link between political conservatism and explicit prejudice was significant by”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Cultural tightness was positively associated with implicit racism, b = .005, SE = .001, t = 4.48, p < .001, R2level 2 = .32.
“This relationship also reached significance when our overall implicit prejudice index was decomposed into implicit racism, b = .005, SE = .001, t = 4.48, p < .001, R2level 2 = .32, and implicit anti-gay prejudice, b = .02, SE = .006, t = 3.04, p = .004, R2level 2 = .15.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
There was a significant indirect effect of threat on prejudice via support for cultural tightness.
“A Monte Carlo simulation supported a significant indirect effect, 95% CIs [.02, .14].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The 10 incomplete statements measure support for cultural tightness.
- Rests on an assumption: The mediation analyses assume no unmeasured confounding of the mediator-outcome relationship.
- Findingown data
Support for cultural tightness was positively associated with prejudice, controlling for experimental condition and nation-level cultural tightness.
“As predicted, support for cultural tightness was positively associated with prejudice, b = .13, SE = .03, t = 4.73, p < .001, R2 = .02, while controlling for experimental condition and nation-level cultural tightness.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The 10 incomplete statements measure support for cultural tightness.
- Findingown data
The effect of ecological threat (vs control and vs negativity control) on support for cultural tightness did not significantly vary across tight and loose nations.
“A follow-up multiple regression with dummy-coded condition variables found that the effect of ecological threat vs. control did not vary significantly across tight and loose nations, b = .19, SE = .23, t = 0.83, p = .41, R2 < .001, and neither did the effect of ecological threat vs. negativity control, b = -.36, SE = .23, t = -1.60, p = .11, R2 = .001.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The 10 incomplete statements measure support for cultural tightness.
- Findingown data
Tightness correlated with prejudice towards people of a different race, OR = 1.13, z = 2.92, p = .004.
“Indeed, tightness correlated with each indicator of prejudice, predicting prejudice towards people of a different race, OR = 1.13, z = 2.92, p = .004, people of a different religion, OR = 1.20, z = 3.81, p < .001, people who spoke a different language, OR = 1.10, z = 2.01, p = .04, gay people, , OR = 1.09, z = 2.14, p = .03, immigrants, OR = 1.18, z = 4.17, p < .001, and unmarried cohabitants, OR”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Tightness at the state-level was robustly linked with prejudice, b = .02, SE = .003, t = 7.19, p < .001, R2 level 2 = .64, even controlling for income, conservatism, and residential mobility.
“In support of this prediction, tightness at the state-level was robustly linked with prejudice, b = .02, SE = .003, t = 7.19, p < .001, R2 level 2 = .64, even controlling for income, conservatism, and residential mobility (see Fig 2).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The link between prejudice and cultural tightness replicated controlling for other sociocultural factors.
“However, the link between prejudice and cultural tightness in our studies replicated controlling for these factors”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The 10 incomplete statements measure support for cultural tightness.
- Findingown data
Support for cultural tightness mediated the association between perceived threat and prejudice amongst Americans and French participants.
“As predicted, support for cultural tightness mediated the association between perceived threat and prejudice amongst Americans, 95% CIs [.02, .08], and French participants, 95% CIs [.12, .42].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The 10 incomplete statements measure support for cultural tightness.
- Rests on an assumption: The mediation analyses assume no unmeasured confounding of the mediator-outcome relationship.
- Findingown data
Perceived threat predicted prejudice for both American and French participants.
“Perceived threat also predicted prejudice for both American, b = .66, SE = .06, t = 10.64, p < .001, R2level 1 = .17, and French, b = .66, SE = .09, t = 7.62, p < .001, R2level 1 = .15, participants.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Ecological threats such as pathogens, warfare, and resource scarcity predicted greater cultural tightness.
“We found that ecological threats such as pathogens, warfare, and resource scarcity predicted greater cultural tightness”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The 10 incomplete statements measure support for cultural tightness.
- Findingown data
Intention to vote for Donald Trump was associated with perceived threat.
“Intention to vote for Donald Trump was associated with perceived threat, OR = 1.39, Z = 2.68, p = .007, cultural tightness, OR = 1.40, Z = 4.83, p < .001, and prejudice, OR = 1.86, Z = 6.57, p < .001.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The 10 incomplete statements measure support for cultural tightness.
- Rests on an assumption: The 2016 US and 2017 French election cycles featured candidates who advocated policies restricting minority groups.
- Rests on an assumption: The voting intention measure is a valid indicator of actual voting behavior.
- Findingown data
Intention to vote for Donald Trump was associated with cultural tightness.
“Intention to vote for Donald Trump was associated with perceived threat, OR = 1.39, Z = 2.68, p = .007, cultural tightness, OR = 1.40, Z = 4.83, p < .001, and prejudice, OR = 1.86, Z = 6.57, p < .001.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The 10 incomplete statements measure support for cultural tightness.
- Rests on an assumption: The 2016 US and 2017 French election cycles featured candidates who advocated policies restricting minority groups.
- Rests on an assumption: The voting intention measure is a valid indicator of actual voting behavior.
- Findingown data
People in tighter cultures were more prejudiced against racial, national, sexual, and religious minorities.
“and people in tighter cultures were more prejudiced against racial, national, sexual, and religious minorities.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The 10 incomplete statements measure support for cultural tightness.
- Findingown data
The relationship between perceived threat and prejudice remained significant controlling for support for cultural tightness, indicating partial mediation.
“The relationship between perceived threat and prejudice remained significant controlling for support for cultural tightness amongst American, b = .17, SE = .07, t = 2.21, p = .02, R2level 1 = .01, and French, b = .53, SE = .08, t = 6.45, p < .001, R2level 1 = .10, participants, indicating partial mediation.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The 10 incomplete statements measure support for cultural tightness.
- Rests on an assumption: The mediation analyses assume no unmeasured confounding of the mediator-outcome relationship.
- Findingown data
Perceived threat was associated with cultural tightness for both American and French participants.
“Perceived threat was associated with cultural tightness for both American, b = .17, SE = .07, t = 2.21, p = .02, R2level 1 = .01, and French, b = .40, SE = .09, t = 4.04, p < .001, R2 = .05, participants.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The 10 incomplete statements measure support for cultural tightness.
- Findingown data
Support for perceptions of societal threats influenced people's support for cultural tightness.
“Our final three studies showed that support for perceptions of societal threats influenced people’s support for cultural tightness”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The 10 incomplete statements measure support for cultural tightness.
- Findingown data
The relationships between ecological threats, cultural tightness, and prejudice replicated across current-day nations, US federal states, and non-industrial societies.
“These relationships replicated across current-day nations (Study 1), US federal states (Studies 2–3), and non-industrial societies (Study 4)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The 10 incomplete statements measure support for cultural tightness.
- Findingown data
The relationships manifested through both explicit and implicit prejudice.
“manifested through both explicit (Studies 1–2, 4) and implicit (Study 3) prejudice”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The 10 incomplete statements measure support for cultural tightness.
- Findingown data
The reverse mediational pathways had no significant indirect effect.
“The reverse mediational pathways had no significant indirect effect.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The 10 incomplete statements measure support for cultural tightness.
- Rests on an assumption: The mediation analyses assume no unmeasured confounding of the mediator-outcome relationship.
- Findingown data
The relationships replicated even when controlling for other structural and attitudinal factors such as economic development, inequality, residential mobility, conservatism, and shared cultural heritage.
“and replicated even when controlling for other structural and attitudinal factors such as economic development, inequality, residential mobility, conservatism, and shared cultural heritage.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The 10 incomplete statements measure support for cultural tightness.
- Findingown data
Intention to vote for Donald Trump was associated with prejudice.
“Intention to vote for Donald Trump was associated with perceived threat, OR = 1.39, Z = 2.68, p = .007, cultural tightness, OR = 1.40, Z = 4.83, p < .001, and prejudice, OR = 1.86, Z = 6.57, p < .001.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The 2016 US and 2017 French election cycles featured candidates who advocated policies restricting minority groups.
- Rests on an assumption: The voting intention measure is a valid indicator of actual voting behavior.
- Findingown data
Support for cultural tightness predicted prejudice among both American and French participants.
“Consistent with our first prediction, support for cultural tightness predicted prejudice among both American, b = .26, SE = .04, t = 7.05, p < .001, and French, b = .37, SE = .05, t = 7.83, p < .001, participants.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The 10 incomplete statements measure support for cultural tightness.
- Study design and conductown data
Results replicate when controlling for economic development, inequality, conservatism, residential mobility, and shared cultural heritage.
“Results replicate when controlling for economic development, inequality, conservatism, residential mobility, and shared cultural heritage.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
During warfare, disease outbreaks, or resource scarcity, societies are faced with increased coordination pressures across diverse populations of unrelated individuals.
“During warfare, disease outbreaks, or resource scarcity, societies are faced with increased coordination pressures across diverse populations of unrelated individuals [27–28].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [27] P Turchin, 2015, Ultrasociety: How 10,000 years of war made humans the greatest cooperators on earth
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [28] P Roos, 2015, Societal threat and cultural variation in the strength of social norms: An evolutionary basis, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes source
Not checked in the free run.
- Premisecitation
Cultures tighten in the face of ecological threat.
“According to past research, cultures tighten in the face of ecological threat [24–26].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites [24] MJ Gelfand, 2011, & Aycan Z. Differences between tight and loose cultures: A 33-nation study, Science source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [25] MJ Gelfand, 2017, The Strength of Social Norms Across Human Groups, Perspectives on Psychological Science source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [26] MJ Gelfand, 2016, Societal threat as a moderator of cultural group selection, Behavioral and Brain Sciences source
Not checked in the free run.
- Interpretationown data
Cultures grow more prejudiced when they tighten cultural norms in response to destabilizing ecological threats.
“We suggest that cultures grow more prejudiced when they tighten cultural norms in response to destabilizing ecological threats.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
There is evidence that threats like scarcity and pathogen prevalence are associated with prejudice.
“Indeed, there is evidence that threats like scarcity and pathogen prevalence are associated with prejudice [32–40].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 9 sources checked- cites [32] M Obschonka, 2018, Fear, Populism, and the Geopolitical Landscape, Social Psychological and Personality Science source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [33] M Gelfand, 2016, Trump Culture: Threat, Fear and the Tightening of the American Mind, Scientific American
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [34] M Gelfand, 2017, The Cultural Fault Line That Is Reshaping Global Politics, Scientific American
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [35] S Bhatia, 2018, Trait Associations for Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in News Media, Social Psychological and Personality Science source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [36] DR Murray, 2013, Pathogens and Politics: Further Evidence That Parasite Prevalence Predicts Authoritarianism, PLoS ONE source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [37] G Roussos, 2018, Hate Speech Is in the Eye of the Beholder: The Influence of Racial Attitudes and Freedom of Speech Beliefs on Perceptions of Racially Motivated Threats of Violence, Social Psychological and Personality Science source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [38] E Knowles, 2018, The Racial and Economic Context of Trump Support: Evidence for Threat, Identity, and Contact Effects in the 2016 Presidential Election, Social Psychological and Personality Science source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [39] CI Hovland, 1940, Minor studies of aggression: VI. Correlation of lynchings with economic indices, The Journal of Psychology source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [40] MJ Landau, 2004, Deliver us from Evil: The Effects of Mortality Salience and Reminders of 9/11 on Support for President George W. Bush, Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin source
Not checked in the free run.
- Premisecitation
Across contemporary nations and US states, cultural tightness is negatively correlated with openness to new ideas and societal innovations that disrupt the social order.
“Across contemporary nations [24] and US states [29], cultural tightness is negatively correlated with openness to new ideas and societal innovations that disrupt the social order [31–32]”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 4 sources checked- cites [24] MJ Gelfand, 2011, & Aycan Z. Differences between tight and loose cultures: A 33-nation study, Science source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [29] JR Harrington, 2014, Tightness-looseness across the 50 united states, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [31] RY Chua, 2015, The impact of culture on creativity: How cultural tightness and cultural distance affect global innovation crowdsourcing work, Administrative Science Quarterly source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [32] M Obschonka, 2018, Fear, Populism, and the Geopolitical Landscape, Social Psychological and Personality Science source
Not checked in the free run.
- Interpretationown data
The link between political conservatism and explicit prejudice was significant by virtue of shared variance with cultural tightness.
“In fact, whereas conservatism alone was a significant predictor of prejudice, b = .15, SE = .04, t = 4.11, p < .001, R2 level 2 = .05, including tightness and conservatism in the same model nullified the effect of conservatism on prejudice, b = -.05, SE = .03, t = -1.30, p = .20, R2 level 2 = .02, suggesting that the link between political conservatism and explicit prejudice was significant by”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductown data
Ross's cross-cultural codes assessing hostility towards other societies and acceptability of violence towards other societies correlated highly (r = .74).
“We measured prejudice using Ross’s [55] cross-cultural codes assessing hostility towards other societies and acceptability of violence towards other societies. These variables correlated highly (r = .74) and so we averaged them into a composite prejudice index.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [55] MH Ross, 1983, Political Decision Making and Conflict: Additional Cross-Cultural Codes and Scales, Ethnology source
Not checked in the free run.
- Interpretationown data
Threat salience only affects prejudice to the extent that it affects support for cultural tightness.
“this analysis strongly suggests that threat salience only affects prejudice to the extent that it affects the support for cultural tightness.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The 10 incomplete statements measure support for cultural tightness.
- Rests on an assumption: The mediation analyses assume no unmeasured confounding of the mediator-outcome relationship.
- Study design and conductown data
Sampling societies from the ethnographic record allowed control for shared cultural ancestry by randomly varying intercepts across language family membership.
“Sampling societies from the ethnographic record also gave us the opportunity to control for shared cultural ancestry in our analyses by randomly varying intercepts across each society’s language family membership in multi-level models.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductown data
The prejudice scale in Study 1 showed appropriate reliability (Cronbach's α = .75).
“They also quantified bias towards a number of groups using the exact same language, and the scale showed appropriate reliability (Cronbach’s α = .75), allowing us to average them into a single prejudice index.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductown data
The prejudice items in Study 2 formed a reliable prejudice index (Cronbach's α = .88).
“Participants responded to each item on a 1–5 scale, where higher values communicated less willingness to allow marriage, and the items formed a reliable prejudice index (Cronbach’s α = .88).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
Tightness and conservatism correlate highly across American states.
“Controlling for political conservativism was important in Study 2 because tightness and conservatism correlate highly across American states [29].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [29] JR Harrington, 2014, Tightness-looseness across the 50 united states, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences source
Not checked in the free run.
- Study design and conductown data
117,157 individuals from 25 countries had data on prejudice, cultural tightness, and ecological threat, allowing for appropriately powered multi-level analyses.
“In total, 117,157 individuals from 25 countries had data on prejudice, cultural tightness, and ecological threat, allowing for appropriately powered multi-level analyses, wherein intercepts varied randomly across nations.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
Like nations, tighter states have historically faced more threat (e.g., infectious diseases, floods, resource scarcity) than looser states.
“Like nations, tighter states have historically faced more threat (e.g., infectious diseases, floods, resource scarcity) than looser states [29].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [29] JR Harrington, 2014, Tightness-looseness across the 50 united states, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences source
Not checked in the free run.
- Study design and conductown data
Studies 6-7 replicated controlling for self-identified political conservatism.
“Studies 6–7 replicated controlling for self-identified political conservatism.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductown data
Study 6 sample was nationally representative in terms of race, political affiliation, and region.
“Study 6 surveyed 562 Americans (289 women, 273 men; Mage = 29.85, SDage = 16.82) during the United States 2016 primary election using a panel method that ensured our sample was nationally representative in terms of race, political affiliation, and region.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductown data
Ratings of ecological threats were reliable amongst both American and French participants.
“Ratings of ecological threats were reliable amongst both American (Cronbach’s α = .89) and French (Cronbach’s α = .84) participants, so we averaged them into a “perceived ecological threat” composite score.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
Threat did not predict political preference after controlling for tightness and prejudice.
“suggesting that threat did not predict political preference after controlling for tightness and prejudice.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The 10 incomplete statements measure support for cultural tightness.
- Rests on an assumption: The 2016 US and 2017 French election cycles featured candidates who advocated policies restricting minority groups.
- Rests on an assumption: The mediation analyses assume no unmeasured confounding of the mediator-outcome relationship.
- Rests on an assumption: The voting intention measure is a valid indicator of actual voting behavior.
- Study design and conductown data
The correlational studies do not show that tightness causes prejudice.
“Our correlational studies also do not show that tightness causes prejudice.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationown data
The connection between tightness and prejudice cannot be reduced to other sociocultural factors.
“suggesting that the connection between tightness and prejudice cannot be reduced to other sociocultural factors.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The 10 incomplete statements measure support for cultural tightness.
- May combine two claims. 19
- Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 16
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataNation-level cultural tightness predicted people's prejudice; people in tighter nations were more prejudiced than people in looser nations.
“However, nation-level cultural tightness did predict people’s prejudice, b = .66, SE = .09, t = 7.59, p < .001, R2 = .05, such that people in tighter nations were more prejudiced than people in looser nations.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The 10 incomplete statements measure support for cultural tightness.
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataEcological threat no longer significantly predicted prejudice when tightness was added to the model, indicating full mediation, b = .005, SE = .003, t = 0.15, p = .88, R2level 2 = .03.
“Ecological threat no longer significantly predicted prejudice when tightness was added to the model, indicating full mediation, b = .005, SE = .003, t = 0.15, p = .88, R2level 2 = .03.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataThreat also remained a significant predictor in this model, indicating partial mediation, b = 1.12, SE = .20, t = 5.56, p < .001, R2 level 1 = .35.
“Threat also remained a significant predictor in this model, b = 1.12, SE = .20, t = 5.56, p < .001, R2 level 1 = .35, indicating partial mediation.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataEcological threat did not reach significance in this model, indicating full mediation, b = .03, SE = .08, t = 0.39, p = .70, R2 < .01.
“A Monte Carlo simulation confirmed significant mediation, and ecological threat did not reach significance in this model, indicating full mediation, CIs [.01,.04], b = .03, SE = .08, t = 0.39, p = .70, R2 < .01.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataSupport for cultural tightness predicted prejudiced attitudes and xenophobic political preferences.
“in turn predicting prejudiced attitudes and xenophobic political preferences.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The 10 incomplete statements measure support for cultural tightness.
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataThe serial mediation path models showed significant indirect effects of threat on support for Donald Trump and Marine Le Pen via support for cultural tightness and prejudice, but no significant direct effects.
“Both of these path models—displayed in Fig 5—showed significant indirect effects (American 95% CIs [.001, .008]; French 95% CIs [.006, .02]), but no significant direct effects (American 95% CIs [-.05, .04]; French 95% CIs [-.09, .02])”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The 10 incomplete statements measure support for cultural tightness.
- Rests on an assumption: The 2016 US and 2017 French election cycles featured candidates who advocated policies restricting minority groups.
- Rests on an assumption: The mediation analyses assume no unmeasured confounding of the mediator-outcome relationship.
- Rests on an assumption: The voting intention measure is a valid indicator of actual voting behavior.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Findingown dataThe supplementary materials present further evidence for a relationship between tightness and other forms of prejudice, including a 20-nation field study that documents prejudice against individuals with physical stigmas.
“While our primary results involved prejudice against people with different social identities, our supplementary materials present further evidence for a relationship between tightness and other forms of prejudice, including a 20-nation field study that documents prejudice against individuals with physical stigmas.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The 10 incomplete statements measure support for cultural tightness.
May combine two claims.
Premisenone givenPrejudiced attitudes and political nationalism vary widely around the world.
“Prejudiced attitudes and political nationalism vary widely around the world, but there has been little research on what predicts this variation.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationCultural tightness emerges following threat because it curbs defection and increases coordination.
“Evolutionary game theory models and behavioral data suggest that cultural tightness emerges following threat because it curbs defection and increases coordination [28–29].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [28] P Roos, 2015, Societal threat and cultural variation in the strength of social norms: An evolutionary basis, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [29] JR Harrington, 2014, Tightness-looseness across the 50 united states, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences source
Not checked in the free run.
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
Premisenone givenThere has been little research on what predicts variation in prejudiced attitudes and political nationalism.
“Prejudiced attitudes and political nationalism vary widely around the world, but there has been little research on what predicts this variation.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
InterpretationreasoningIf tightness is linked to prejudice, then threat provides the ecological basis to understand variation in prejudice through its influence on tight norms.
“If tightness is linked to prejudice, then threat provides the ecological basis to understand variation in prejudice through its influence on tight norms.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
PremisecitationTL theory holds that, during times of threat, groups and individuals gravitate towards cultural tightness because tighter norms can better maintain societal order, stability, and coordination.
“TL theory holds that, during times of threat, groups and individuals gravitate towards cultural tightness because tighter norms can better maintain societal order, stability, and coordination [24–26].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites [24] MJ Gelfand, 2011, & Aycan Z. Differences between tight and loose cultures: A 33-nation study, Science source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [25] MJ Gelfand, 2017, The Strength of Social Norms Across Human Groups, Perspectives on Psychological Science source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [26] MJ Gelfand, 2016, Societal threat as a moderator of cultural group selection, Behavioral and Brain Sciences source
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationWhile tightness encourages coordination through increased social regulation, it also decreases openness.
“Yet while tightness encourages coordination through increased social regulation, it also decreases openness [24,30].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [24] MJ Gelfand, 2011, & Aycan Z. Differences between tight and loose cultures: A 33-nation study, Science source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [30] De S, Nau DS, Gelfand, MJ. Understanding norm change: An evolutionary game-theoretic approach. Proceedings of the 16th Conference on Autonomous Agents and MultiAgent Systems, (International Foundation for Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems); 2017. pp. 1433–1441.
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
Study design and conductown dataThe research tests predictions using a combination of correlational and experimental methods for the link between cultural tightness and prejudice in a variety of comparative samples, consistently replicating results across studies.
“Indeed, one of the strengths of our research is that we test our predictions using a combination of correlational and experimental methods for the link between cultural tightness and prejudice in a variety of comparative samples, consistently replicating our results across studies.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).
InterpretationreasoningCultural tightness may also increase prejudice against individuals who are seen as disrupting the social order simply because they practice a minority religion, belong to a minority ethnic group, or have a minority sexual orientation.
“We theorize that cultural tightness may also increase prejudice against individuals who are seen as disrupting the social order simply because they practice a minority religion, belong to a minority ethnic group, or have a minority sexual orientation.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationHarrington and Gelfand found that relatively tighter states such as Alabama and Virginia have higher execution rates, less access to alcohol, and more frequent corporal punishment in schools compared to relatively looser states like Nevada or Washington.
“For example, Harrington and Gelfand [29] found that relatively tighter states such as Alabama and Virginia have higher execution rates, less access to alcohol, and more frequent corporal punishment in schools compared to relatively looser states like Nevada or Washington.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [29] JR Harrington, 2014, Tightness-looseness across the 50 united states, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences source
Not checked in the free run.
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductown dataStudy 1 controlled for GDPPP, GINI, and WVS wave.
“We also controlled for an estimate Gross Domestic Product per Capita at purchasing power parity (GDPPP), inequality (GINI), and WVS wave in order to model the effects of economic development, social inequality, and time.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductown data11,577 individuals from the 50 federal states had data on prejudice.
“In total, 11,577 individuals from the 50 federal states had data on prejudice.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Study design and conductown dataCodes across six domains of cultural tightness converged towards a 1-factor solution and showed high reliability (Cronbach's α = .87).
“Codes across each of these domains converged towards a 1-factor solution and showed high reliability (Cronbach’s α = .87), and thus we averaged them into a single index representing the overall cultural tightness in each society.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductown dataAnalyses in Study 3 controlled for income and political conservatism using the same measures as in Study 2.
“Analyses controlled for income and political conservatism using the same measures as in Study 2.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataPriming threat alone was not enough to increase prejudice; it needed to accompany an increase in support for cultural tightness in order to increase prejudice.
“which suggests that priming threat alone was not enough to increase prejudice; rather, priming threat needed to accompany an increase in support for cultural tightness in order to increase prejudice.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The 10 incomplete statements measure support for cultural tightness.
- Rests on an assumption: The mediation analyses assume no unmeasured confounding of the mediator-outcome relationship.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductown dataStudy 4 controlled for residential mobility.
“As in Studies 2–3, Study 4 also controlled for residential mobility.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
PremisereasoningSupport for cultural tightness is not the same as living in a tight society.
“We note that support for cultural tightness is not the same as living in a tight society.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductnone givenThe Standard Cross-Cultural Sample was built to be as geographically diverse as possible in order to minimize the probability of cross-cultural correlations being due to shared cultural ancestry or intercultural borrowing.
“We sampled 47 societies from the Standard Cross-Cultural Sample, which was built to be as geographically diverse as possible in order to minimize the probability of cross-cultural correlations being due to shared cultural ancestry or intercultural borrowing.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningSince tightness is a group-level metric, support for cultural tightness provides an approximation that we predict should be associated at the individual level with many correlates of cultural tightness at the group level.
“However, since tightness is a group-level metric, support for cultural tightness provides an approximation that we predict should be associated at the individual level with many correlates of cultural tightness at the group level.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningThis trend has potentially resulted in support for programs such as Brexit in England, a border wall in the United States, and far-right nationalist parties in Austria, Hungary, and Poland, among other European nations.
“This trend has potentially resulted in support for programs such as Brexit in England, a border wall in the United States, and far-right nationalist parties in Austria, Hungary, and Poland, among other European nations.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The 2016 US and 2017 French election cycles featured candidates who advocated policies restricting minority groups.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationFactors such as religion, inequality, and resource scarcity may predict prejudice and discrimination across cultures.
“Factors such as religion, inequality, and resource scarcity may predict prejudice and discrimination across cultures [23,62–64].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 4 sources checked- cites [23] TR Cohen, 2006, Group morality and intergroup relations: Cross-cultural and experimental evidence, Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [62] J Watts, 2016, Ritual human sacrifice promoted and sustained the evolution of stratified societies, Nature source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [63] RA McNamara, 2016, Supernatural punishment, in-group biases, and material insecurity: experiments and ethnography from Yasawa, Fiji, Religion, Brain & Behavior source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [64] P Burns, 2000, Economic insecurity, prejudicial stereotypes, and public opinion on immigration policy, Political Science Quarterly source
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationPolitics play an important role in cultural change, and many historical cases of intergroup hostility have been rooted in prejudiced political leaders and governments.
“Politics play an important role in cultural change, and many historical cases of intergroup hostility have been rooted in prejudiced political leaders and governments [61].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [61] BZ Tamanaha, 2004 source
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataVoters who believed their country was under threat were more likely to vote for Donald Trump and Marine Le Pen, and their preferences could be fully explained by their support for cultural tightness and prejudice.
“These findings show that voters who believed their country was under threat were more likely to vote for Donald Trump and Marine LePen, and their preferences could be fully explained by their support for cultural tightness and prejudice.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The 10 incomplete statements measure support for cultural tightness.
- Rests on an assumption: The 2016 US and 2017 French election cycles featured candidates who advocated policies restricting minority groups.
- Rests on an assumption: The mediation analyses assume no unmeasured confounding of the mediator-outcome relationship.
- Rests on an assumption: The voting intention measure is a valid indicator of actual voting behavior.
May combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataThese events are neither isolated nor random, but instantiations of a broader principle that echoes across human history: Perceptions of ecological threat tighten societies, which in turn is linked to order and social coordination, but also to hostility and intolerance.
“Our studies show that these events are neither isolated nor random, but instantiations of a broader principle that echoes across human history: Perceptions of ecological threat tighten societies, which in turn is linked to order and social coordination, but also to hostility and intolerance.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The 10 incomplete statements measure support for cultural tightness.
- Rests on an assumption: The 2016 US and 2017 French election cycles featured candidates who advocated policies restricting minority groups.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
InterpretationreasoningOur findings speak to a recent rise in policies and governments with agendas that are hostile to ethnic minorities and immigrants.
“More generally, our findings speak to a recent rise in policies and governments with agendas that are hostile to ethnic minorities and immigrants.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The 10 incomplete statements measure support for cultural tightness.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductown dataStudy 6 controlled for participants' prior political orientation.
“Study 6 also controlled for participants’ prior political orientation using a 1 (“Democrat”) to 5 (“Republican”) scale.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationAlthough explicit and implicit bias against minorities are decreasing, there is nevertheless a trend toward nationalist governments and policies in recent years.
“Although in many cases explicit and implicit bias against minorities are decreasing [67], there is nevertheless a trend toward nationalist governments and policies in recent years.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [67] TE Charlesworth, 2019, Patterns of implicit and explicit attitudes: I. Long-term change and stability from 2007 to 2016, Psychological science source
Not checked in the free run.
The paper relies on this without support.
The 10 incomplete statements measure support for cultural tightness.
“All participants were then prompted to endorse an ending to 10 incomplete statements concerning their support for cultural tightness.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The 2016 US and 2017 French election cycles featured candidates who advocated policies restricting minority groups.
“We chose these election cycles because they featured candidates who advocated policies that put restrictions on minority groups.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The mediation analyses assume no unmeasured confounding of the mediator-outcome relationship.
“As predicted, support for cultural tightness mediated the association between perceived threat and prejudice amongst Americans, 95% CIs [.02, .08], and French participants, 95% CIs [.12, .42].”
The paper relies on this without support.
The voting intention measure is a valid indicator of actual voting behavior.
“asked participants who they planned to vote for in the upcoming election.”
Statistics recomputed
Every reported test result, recomputed from its test statistic and degrees of freedom. A result shows as not adding up only once an independent check has confirmed it.
- Consistentz = 2.92reported p = .004 · recomputed p = .004
“z = 2.92, p = .004”
- Consistentz = 3.81reported p < .001 · recomputed p < .001
“z = 3.81, p < .001”
- Consistentz = 2.01reported p = .04 · recomputed p = .044
“z = 2.01, p = .04”
- Consistentz = 2.14reported p = .03 · recomputed p = .032
“z = 2.14, p = .03”
- Consistentz = 4.17reported p < .001 · recomputed p < .001
“z = 4.17, p < .001”
- Consistentz = 6.17reported p < .001 · recomputed p < .001
“z = 6.17, p < .001”
- ConsistentF(2, 1046) = 5.18reported p = .006 · recomputed p = .006
“F(2,1046) = 5.18, p = .006”
- Consistentz = 2.68reported p = .007 · recomputed p = .007
“Z = 2.68, p = .007”
- Consistentz = 4.83reported p < .001 · recomputed p < .001
“Z = 4.83, p < .001”
- Consistentz = 6.57reported p < .001 · recomputed p < .001
“Z = 6.57, p < .001”
- Consistentz = 2.37reported p = .02 · recomputed p = .018
“Z = 2.37, p = .02”
- Consistentz = 5.95reported p < .001 · recomputed p < .001
“Z = 5.95, p < .001”
- Consistentz = 6.96reported p < .001 · recomputed p < .001
“Z = 6.96, p < .001”
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Study 1 figure caption counts seven prejudice groups instead of six
MinorStudy 1 says its prejudice measure consists of six questions, but the caption for its prejudice figure says it covers seven groups.
“Prejudice is operationalized through the refusal to live next to individuals from seven commonly stigmatized groups.”
“We operationalized prejudice through six questions that asked whether or not participants would be willing to live near (a) people from a different race, (b) people from a different religion, (c) immigrants, (d) people who spoke a different language, (e) people of a different sexual orientation, and (f) unmarried cohabitants.”
French threat-tightness coefficient and standard error conflict with its t statistic
MinorThe reported coefficient divided by its standard error is about 4.44, not 4.04; the gap is larger than rounding of the printed inputs permits.
Reported 4.04 · recomputed 4.444444
“French, b = .40, SE = .09, t = 4.04, p < .001”
Study 2 threat-adjusted coefficient and standard error do not yield the reported t
MinorDividing the reported coefficient by its standard error gives about 1.67, not 0.15; rounding at the printed precision cannot account for the difference.
Reported 0.15 · recomputed 1.666667
“b = .005, SE = .003, t = 0.15, p = .88”
Study 2 anti-gay coefficient and standard error conflict with its t statistic
MinorThe reported coefficient divided by its standard error is 5, not 3.26. Even allowing for rounding of both inputs, the ratio would exceed 3.26.
Reported 3.26 · recomputed 5
“gay people, b = .02, SE = .004, t = 3.26, p = .002”
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- Authors
- Jackson, J. C., van Egmond, M., Choi, V. K., Ember, C. R., Halberstadt, J., Balanovic, J., Basker, I. N., Boehnke, K., Buki, N., Fischer, R., Fulop, M., Fulmer, A., Homan, A. C., van Kleef, G. A., Kreemers, L., Schei, V., Szabo, E., Ward, C., & Gelfand, M. J.
- Affiliations
- University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (US)
- University of Maryland, College Park (US)
- Yale University (US)
- University of Otago (NZ)
- Victoria University of Wellington (NZ)
- Norwegian School of Economics (NO)
- National Research University Higher School of Economics (RU)
- Georgia State University (US)
- University of Amsterdam (NL)
- Johannes Kepler University of Linz (AT)
- Corresponding author
- Jackson, Joshua Conrad
- Gelfand, Michele J.
- ORCID
- Venue
- PLOS ONE
- Publisher
- Public Library of Science (PLoS)
- Published
- 2019-09-06
- Volume
- 14
- Issue
- 9
- Pages
- e0221953
- ISSN
- 1932-6203 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC6730889
- OpenAlex
- W2971921871
- Semantic Scholar
- de4913570576094714035d8ee0524e4c062b3bb7
- Cited by
- 144
- References
- 59
- Citations by year
- 2026: 11 · 2025: 15 · 2024: 18 · 2023: 20 · 2022: 30 · 2021: 34 · 2020: 14 · 2019: 2
- FWCI
- 40.18
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- PLoS ONE (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Repository of the Academy's Library (Library of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences) (acceptedVersion)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- UvA-DARE (University of Amsterdam) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- ELTE Digital Institutional Repository (EDIT) (Eötvös Loránd University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- NORA - Norwegian Open Research Archives (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- OSF Preprints (OSF Preprints) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation
- Royster Society of Fellows
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Social and Intergroup Psychology
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Social Psychology › Cultural Differences and Values
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Evolutionary Psychology and Human Behavior
- Keywords
- prejudice, cultural tightness, ecological threats, political nationalism, religious prejudice, national prejudice, sexual orientation prejudice, cultural evolution, intergroup conflict, immigration, radicalization, cultural norms
- MeSH terms
- Culture, Humans, Politics, Prejudice, Internationality, Ecological and Environmental Phenomena
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-09.
Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-09.
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