Cited by 142Social and Intergroup PsychologyElectoral Systems and Political ParticipationPopulism, Right-Wing Movements

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The Racial and Economic Context of Trump Support: Evidence for Threat, Identity, and Contact Effects in the 2016 Presidential Election

Knowles, Eric D., Tropp, Linda R.·2018·Social Psychological and Personality Science

DOI 10.1177/1948550618759326

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Abstract

Donald Trump’s ascent to the Presidency of the United States defied the expectations of many social scientists, pundits, and laypeople. To date, most efforts to understand Trump’s rise have focused on personality and demographic characteristics of White Americans. In contrast, the present work leverages a nationally representative sample of Whites to examine how contextual factors may have shaped support for Trump during the 2016 presidential primaries. Results reveal that neighborhood-level exposure to racial and ethnic minorities predicts greater group threat and racial identification among Whites as well as greater intentions to vote for Trump in the general election. At the same time, however, neighborhood diversity afforded Whites with opportunities for intergroup contact, which predicted lower levels of threat, White identification, and Trump support. Further analyses suggest that a healthy local economy mutes threat effects in diverse contexts, allowing contact processes to come to the fore.

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“…to more negative outgroup attitudes (Craig and Richeson 2014b; Outten et al. 2012), to stronger identi ﬁ cation with other Whites (Abascal 2015; Knowles and Tropp 2018; Outten et al. 2012) and heightened policing of the White boundary (Abascal 2020; Cooley et al. 2018) – are indicative of…”
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“…and racial prejudice (Bobo and Hutchings 1996), and are associated with White support for decreases to social welfare programs (Brown 2013), for increased law enforcement and punitive action (Lehmann et al. 2022), and for politicians who antagonize minority groups (Knowles and Tropp 2018).”
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Authors: Knowles, E. D., & Tropp, L. R.
Affiliations: New York University (US)
University of Massachusetts Amherst (US)
Corresponding author: Knowles, Eric D.
ORCID: Knowles, Eric D.
Tropp, Linda R.
Venue: Social Psychological and Personality Science
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Published: 2018-02-16
Volume: 9
Issue: 3
Pages: 275-284
ISSN: 1948-5506 (ISSN-L)
1948-5514
DOI: 10.1177/1948550618759326
OpenAlex: W2789793123
Cited by: 142
References: 53
Citations by year: 2026: 4 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 8 · 2023: 10 · 2022: 11 · 2021: 21 · 2020: 51 · 2019: 28 · 2018: 5
FWCI: 59.72
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: journals.sagepub.com/page/policies/text-and-data-mining-license (tdm)
Locations: Social Psychological and Personality Science (publishedVersion)
Funders: Russell Sage Foundation (#87-14-04)
Topics: Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Social and Intergroup Psychology
Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Electoral Systems and Political Participation
Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Populism, Right-Wing Movements
Keywords: Donald Trump, 2016 US presidential election, Trump support, racial threat, racial identification, neighborhood diversity, intergroup contact, local economic conditions, White Americans, ethnic minorities, voting intention, contextual factors

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The Racial and Economic Context of Trump Support: Evidence for Threat, Identity, and Contact Effects in the 2016 Presidential Election

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