The DOI matches its Crossref record; 54 of the 54 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
The Racial and Economic Context of Trump Support: Evidence for Threat, Identity, and Contact Effects in the 2016 Presidential Election
Abstract
Donald Trump’s ascent to the Presidency of the United States defied the expectations of many social scientists, pundits, and laypeople. To date, most efforts to understand Trump’s rise have focused on personality and demographic characteristics of White Americans. In contrast, the present work leverages a nationally representative sample of Whites to examine how contextual factors may have shaped support for Trump during the 2016 presidential primaries. Results reveal that neighborhood-level exposure to racial and ethnic minorities predicts greater group threat and racial identification among Whites as well as greater intentions to vote for Trump in the general election. At the same time, however, neighborhood diversity afforded Whites with opportunities for intergroup contact, which predicted lower levels of threat, White identification, and Trump support. Further analyses suggest that a healthy local economy mutes threat effects in diverse contexts, allowing contact processes to come to the fore.
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“Indeed, there is evidence that threats like scarcity and pathogen prevalence are associated with prejudice [32–40].”
From Ecological and cultural factors underlying the global distribution of prejudice (2019) · cites this paper as [38]
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“Most studies focus on the reasons driving voting behavior and electoral outcomes (Autor et al. 2017; Frey et al. 2018; Enke, 2020; Knowles & Tropp, 2018).”
Gibbons, J. (2024) · Race and Social Problems · doi:10.1007/s12552-024-09424-y
“…representation to quality housing can often become highly stratified by race/ethnicity, leading to zero-sum thinking: if “they” get resources, “we” lose (Enos, 2017; Blalock, 1967; Fossett and Kiecolt, 1989; Knowles et al., 2022; Knowles & Tropp, 2018; Quillian, 1995, 1996; Craig & Richeson, 2014).”
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“…to White people are associated with attitudinal concerns about anti-White discrimination and out-group hostility (Craig & Richeson, 2017, 2018; Knowles & Tropp, 2018; Outten et al., 2018; Wilkins & Kaiser, 2014), we find that these threats are also associated with behavior that protects White…”
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“Opportunity Challenge (Knowles & Tropp, 2018; Paluck et al., 2019).”
Wippell, J. G. R., & Dugan, L. (2026) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0353353
Cole, G. G. (2026) · The Journal of Race Ethnicity and Politics · doi:10.1017/rep.2026.10106
Metadata
- Authors
- Knowles, E. D., & Tropp, L. R.
- Affiliations
- New York University (US)
- University of Massachusetts Amherst (US)
- Corresponding author
- Knowles, Eric D.
- Venue
- Social Psychological and Personality Science
- Publisher
- SAGE Publications
- Published
- 2018-02-16
- Volume
- 9
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 275-284
- ISSN
- 1948-5506 (ISSN-L)
- 1948-5514
- OpenAlex
- W2789793123
- Cited by
- 142
- References
- 53
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 8 · 2023: 10 · 2022: 11 · 2021: 21 · 2020: 51 · 2019: 28 · 2018: 5
- FWCI
- 59.72
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Social Psychological and Personality Science (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- Russell Sage Foundation (#87-14-04)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Social and Intergroup Psychology
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Electoral Systems and Political Participation
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Populism, Right-Wing Movements
- Keywords
- Donald Trump, 2016 US presidential election, Trump support, racial threat, racial identification, neighborhood diversity, intergroup contact, local economic conditions, White Americans, ethnic minorities, voting intention, contextual factors
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