A global assessment of closed forests, deforestation and malaria risk
Open accessAbstract
Global environmental change is expected to affect profoundly the transmission of the parasites that cause human malaria. Amongst the anthropogenic drivers of change, deforestation is arguably the most conspicuous, and its rate is projected to increase in the coming decades. The canonical epidemiological understanding is that deforestation increases malaria risk in Africa and the Americas and diminishes it in South-east Asia. Partial support for this position is provided here, through a systematic review of the published literature on deforestation, malaria and the relevant vector bionomics. By using recently updated boundaries for the spatial limits of malaria and remotely-sensed estimates of tree cover, it has been possible to determine the population at risk of malaria in closed forest, at least for those malaria-endemic countries that lie within the main blocks of tropical forest. Closed forests within areas of malaria risk cover approximately 1.5 million km2 in the Amazon region, 1.4 million km2 in Central Africa, 1.2 million km2 in the Western Pacific, and 0.7 million km2 in South-east Asia. The corresponding human populations at risk of malaria within these forests total 11.7 million, 18.7 million, 35.1 million and 70.1 million, respectively. By coupling these numbers with the country-specific rates of deforestation, it has been possible to rank malaria-endemic countries according to their potential for change in the population at risk of malaria, as the result of deforestation. The on-going research aimed at evaluating these relationships more quantitatively, through the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP), is highlighted.
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Within countries moving towards elimination, many remaining foci of malaria transmission are driven by landscape factors.
“Within countries moving towards elimination, many remaining foci of malaria transmission are driven by landscape factors, such as the high malaria incidence associated with deforestation in Southeast Asia and South America [7].”
From Achieving global malaria eradication in changing landscapes (2021) · cites this paper as [7]
The section on links between malaria, forests and deforestation describes landscape-related influences on transmission, and the Conclusions identify ‘frontier’ malaria in South America. But the paper does not frame these findings as remaining foci in countries moving towards elimination. Its Southeast Asia discussion says deforestation can initially reduce transmission and that its effects are difficult to predict, rather than consistently associating it with high incidence. Page numbers are unavailable in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.86)
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- Authors
- Guerra, C. A., Snow, R. W., & Hay, S. I.
- Affiliations
- University of Oxford (GB)
- John Radcliffe Hospital (GB)
- Kenya Medical Research Institute (KE)
- Venue
- Annals of Tropical Medicine and Parasitology
- Publisher
- Maney Publishing
- Published
- 2006-04-01
- Volume
- 100
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 189-204
- ISSN
- 0003-4983 (ISSN-L)
- 1364-8594
- PMC
- PMC3204444
- OpenAlex
- W1988113894
- Cited by
- 177
- References
- 79
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 5 · 2024: 10 · 2023: 8 · 2022: 17 · 2021: 16 · 2020: 10 · 2019: 18 · 2018: 9 · 2017: 12 · 2016: 6 · 2015: 11 · 2014: 8 · 2013: 7 · 2012: 5
- FWCI
- 4.99
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Annals of Tropical Medicine and Parasitology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Funders
- Wellcome Trust (069045, 076951, 058992)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Malaria Research and Control
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Mosquito-borne diseases and control
- Life Sciences › Immunology and Microbiology › Parasitology › Vector-borne infectious diseases
- Keywords
- deforestation, malaria risk, closed forest, tropical forests, tree cover, Amazon, Central Africa, western Pacific, Southeast Asia
- MeSH terms
- Africa, Central, Animals, Anopheles, Asia, Southeastern, Conservation of Natural Resources, Humans, Insect Vectors, Malaria, South America, Trees, Risk Assessment, Endemic Diseases
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