The DOI matches its Crossref record; 21 of the 21 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
A mathematical model for simulating the phase-based transmissibility of a novel coronavirus
Open accessAbstract
Background: As reported by the World Health Organization, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was identified as the causative virus of Wuhan pneumonia of unknown etiology by Chinese authorities on 7 January, 2020. The virus was named as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses on 11 February, 2020. This study aimed to develop a mathematical model for calculating the transmissibility of the virus. Methods: In this study, we developed a Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People transmission network model for simulating the potential transmission from the infection source (probably be bats) to the human infection. Since the Bats-Hosts-Reservoir network was hard to explore clearly and public concerns were focusing on the transmission from Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market (reservoir) to people, we simplified the model as Reservoir-People (RP) transmission network model. The next generation matrix approach was adopted to calculate the basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) from the RP model to assess the transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2. Results: The value of R 0 was estimated of 2.30 from reservoir to person and 3.58 from person to person which means that the expected number of secondary infections that result from introducing a single infected individual into an otherwise susceptible population was 3.58. Conclusions: Our model showed that the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 was higher than the Middle East respiratory syndrome in the Middle East countries, similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome, but lower than MERS in the Republic of Korea.
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Cites
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Containing Pandemic Influenza at the Source
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Cited by
Pan, A., Liu, L., Wang, C., Guo, H., Hao, X., Wang, Q., Huang, J., He, N., Yu, H., Lin, X., et al. (2020) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.2020.6130 · Cited by 1,931
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Epidemic analysis of COVID-19 in China by dynamical modeling
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A mathematical model for COVID-19 transmission by using the Caputo fractional derivative
Tuan, N. H., Mohammadi, H., & Rezapour, S. (2020) · Chaos, Solitons & Fractals · doi:10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110107 · Cited by 417
Impact of population density on Covid-19 infected and mortality rate in India
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Metadata
- Authors
- Chen, T.-M., Rui, J., Wang, Q.-P., Zhao, Z.-Y., Cui, J.-A., & Yin, L.
- Venue
- Infectious Diseases of Poverty
- Published
- 2020-02-28
- Volume
- 9
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 24-24
- ISSN
- 2049-9957 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3009041394
- Cited by
- 890
- References
- 21
- FWCI
- 31.94
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
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- Chen, T.-M., Rui, J., Wang, Q.-P., Zhao, Z.-Y., Cui, J.-A., & Yin, L. (2020). A mathematical model for simulating the phase-based transmissibility of a novel coronavirus. Infectious Diseases of Poverty. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40249-020-00640-3
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