Predicting the Adoption of Electronic Health Records by Physicians: When Will Health Care be Paperless?
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OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was threefold. First, we gathered and synthesized the historic literature regarding electronic health record (EHR) adoption rates among physicians in small practices (ten or fewer members). Next, we constructed models to project estimated future EHR adoption trends and timelines. We then determined the likelihood of achieving universal EHR adoption in the near future and articulate how barriers can be overcome in the small and solo practice medical environment. DESIGN: This study used EHR adoption data from six previous surveys of small practices to estimate historic market penetration rates. Applying technology diffusion theory, three future adoption scenarios, optimistic, best estimate, and conservative, are empirically derived. MEASUREMENT: EHR adoption parameters, external and internal coefficients of influence, are estimated using Bass diffusion models. RESULTS: All three EHR scenarios display the characteristic diffusion S curve that is indicative that the technology is likely to achieve significant market penetration, given enough time. Under current conditions, EHR adoption will reach its maximum market share in 2024 in the small practice setting. CONCLUSION: The promise of improved care quality and cost control has prompted a call for universal EHR adoption by 2014. The EHR products now available are unlikely to achieve full diffusion in a critical market segment within the time frame being targeted by policy makers.
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eHealth implementation may require remodelling of the job design of interconnected health professionals to incorporate technology effectively and efficiently.
“The change does not occur simply from the introduction of ICT infrastructure but may also require remodelling of the job design of interconnected health professionals to effectively and efficiently incorporate technology [15].”
From Health Care Provider Adoption of eHealth: Systematic Literature Review (2013) · cites this paper as [15]
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- Authors
- Ford, E. W., Menachemi, N., & Phillips, M. T.
- Affiliations
- Florida State University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Ford, E. W.
- Venue
- Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2006-01-01
- Volume
- 13
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 106-112
- ISSN
- 1067-5027 (ISSN-L)
- 1527-974X
- PMC
- PMC1380189
- OpenAlex
- W2117057030
- Cited by
- 275
- References
- 57
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 10 · 2022: 27 · 2021: 4 · 2020: 5 · 2019: 15 · 2018: 8 · 2017: 6 · 2016: 12 · 2015: 17 · 2014: 17 · 2013: 16 · 2012: 26
- FWCI
- 27.94
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- NC Digital Online Collection of Knowledge and Scholarship (The University of North Carolina at Greensboro) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Health Professions › Health Information Management › Electronic Health Records Systems
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Healthcare Policy and Management
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Information Systems and Management › Technology Adoption and User Behaviour
- Keywords
- electronic health records, EHR adoption, small medical practices, Bass diffusion model, technology diffusion, market penetration
- MeSH terms
- Attitude of Health Personnel, Attitude to Computers, Diffusion of Innovation, Humans, Office Automation, Physicians, Social Support, Medical Records Systems, Computerized
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