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Multiple Inference and Gender Differences in the Effects of Early Intervention: A Reevaluation of the Abecedarian, Perry Preschool, and Early Training Projects
Abstract
The view that the returns to educational investments are highest for early childhood interventions is widely held and stems primarily from several influential randomized trials—Abecedarian, Perry, and the Early Training Project—that point to super-normal returns to early interventions. This article presents a de novo analysis of these experiments, focusing on two core issues that have received limited attention in previous analyses: treatment effect heterogeneity by gender and overrejection of the null hypothesis due to multiple inference. To address the latter issue, a statistical framework that combines summary index tests with familywise error rate and false discovery rate corrections is implemented. The first technique reduces the number of tests conducted; the latter two techniques adjust the p values for multiple inference. The primary finding of the reanalysis is that girls garnered substantial short- and long-term benefits from the interventions, but there were no significant long-term benefits for boys. These conclusions, which have appeared ambiguous when using “naive” estimators that fail to adjust for multiple testing, contribute to a growing literature on the emerging female–male academic achievement gap. They also demonstrate that in complex studies where multiple questions are asked of the same data set, it can be important to declare the family of tests under consideration and to either consolidate measures or report adjusted and unadjusted p values.
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“In the results presented in Extended Data Tables 6 and 7, we also adjusted for the fact that we conducted multiple tests on the same dataset by implementing FDR corrections and report the FDR q values50. We also report the bootstrapped P value51 to account for regressions with a small number of clusters.”
From Last-mile delivery increases vaccine uptake in Sierra Leone (2024) · cites this paper as [50]
In the citing paper
“Finally, we note that our findings are robust to Type I error concerns. 10 We calculate sharpened two-stage q-values in Table 4 (Benjamini et al., 2006b; Anderson, 2008) and the observed impacts remain statistically significant at the 1 percent level.”
From Food Coma is Real: The Effect of Digestive Fatigue on Adolescents' Cognitive Performance (2024) · cites this paper as Anderson, 2008
In the citing paper
“We perform False Discovery Rate (FDR) adjustment using the method described in (77), considering each experiment (Reduced and Increased Exposure) separately and grouping the variables as:”
From Reranking partisan animosity in algorithmic social media feeds alters affective polarization (2025) · cites this paper as [77]
In the citing paper
“The outcomes used to create each index are quite diverse and group a variety of very different outcomes (e.g., crime, employment, education). It is difficult to interpret his indices. Moreover, the components of his indices change with age.”
From Analyzing social experiments as implemented: A reexamination of the evidence from the HighScope Perry Preschool Program (2010) · cites this paper as Anderson (2008)
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“For these focus hotspot countries, we construct six agricultural activity-specific climate–agriculture–gender inequality hotspot risk indices at the subnational level, using the method described in Anderson (2008) (see Footnote 18).”
InfluentialBaranov, V., Haushofer, J., & Jang, C. (2019) · Economic Development and Cultural Change · doi:10.1086/702860 · Cited by 38
“, Anderson, W., Dhansay, M. A., Ewart, W., Phillips, A., Shurin, S., and Walport, M. (2011). Grand challenges in global mental health. Nature, 475(7354):27–30. Currie, J. (2009). Healthy, wealthy, and wise: Is there a causal relationship between child health and human capital development? Journal of Economic Literatur…”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialCash Transfers and Migration: Theory and Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial
Gazeaud, J., Mvukiyehe, E. N., & Sterck, O. C. (2021) · The Review of Economics and Statistics · doi:10.1162/rest_a_01041 · Cited by 34
“We estimate sharpened q-values that control the false discovery rate (FDR) following the two-step procedure described by Anderson (2008).26 Without correction for multiple hypothesis testing, the p-value of the treatment effect on migration is 0.019.”
InfluentialChanna, H., Ricker-Gilbert, J. E., Feleke, S., & Abdoulaye, T. (2022) · Journal of Development Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2022.102851 · Cited by 35
Breastfeeding and Child Development
Fitzsimons, E., & Vera‐Hernández, M. (2022) · American Economic Journal Applied Economics · doi:10.1257/app.20180385 · Cited by 33
Natural disasters and human capital accumulation: Evidence from the 1976 Tangshan earthquake
Tian, X., Gong, J., & Zhai, Z. (2022) · Economics of Education Review · doi:10.1016/j.econedurev.2022.102304 · Cited by 34
Experimental estimates of the impacts of class size on test scores: robustness and heterogeneity
Ding, W., & Lehrer, S. (2011) · Education Economics · doi:10.1080/09645292.2011.589142 · Cited by 35
“These techniques have also been adopted in some studies within education (Williams, Jones, and Tukey 1999), as well as in studies in economics that examine multiple child outcomes (Kling and Liebman 2004; Anderson 2008).”
MethodThe Employment Effects of State Hiring Credits During and After the Great Recession
Neumark, D., & Grijalva, D. (2013) · doi:10.3386/w18928 · Cited by 34
Method Matters: Underreporting of Intimate Partner Violence in Nigeria and Rwanda
Cullen, C. (2020) · World Bank policy research working paper · doi:10.1596/1813-9450-9274 · Cited by 34
Currie, J., Davis, L. W., Greenstone, M., & Walker, R. (2013) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2244514 · Cited by 34
The Causal Impact of Socio-Emotional Skills Training on Educational Success
Sorrenti, G., Zölitz, U., Ribeaud, D., & Eisner, M. (2024) · The Review of Economic Studies · doi:10.1093/restud/rdae018 · Cited by 52
Reducing nonpayment for public utilities: Experimental evidence from South Africa
Szabó, A., & Ujhelyi, G. (2015) · Journal of Development Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2015.06.002 · Cited by 33
The Effects of Noncontributory Pensions on Material and Subjective Well-Being
Bando, R., Galiani, S., & Gertler, P. (2019) · Economic Development and Cultural Change · doi:10.1086/702859 · Cited by 33
Can Simple Psychological Interventions Increase Preventive Health Investment?
John, A., & Orkin, K. (2021) · Journal of the European Economic Association · doi:10.1093/jeea/jvab052 · Cited by 32
Metadata
- Authors
- Anderson, M. L.
- Affiliations
- University of California, Berkeley (US)
- Corresponding author
- Anderson, Michael L.
- ORCID
- Anderson, Michael L.
- Venue
- Journal of the American Statistical Association
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Published
- 2008-12-01
- Volume
- 103
- Issue
- 484
- Pages
- 1481-1495
- ISSN
- 0162-1459 (ISSN-L)
- 1537-274X
- OpenAlex
- W2099805722
- Cited by
- 2,410
- References
- 37
- Citations by year
- 2026: 210 · 2025: 258 · 2024: 262 · 2023: 266 · 2022: 258 · 2021: 240 · 2020: 187 · 2019: 147 · 2018: 117 · 2017: 85 · 2016: 93 · 2015: 65 · 2014: 47 · 2013: 68 · 2012: 37
- FWCI
- 99.90
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Journal of the American Statistical Association (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Education › Early Childhood Education and Development
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Advanced Causal Inference Techniques
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods and Bayesian Inference
- Keywords
- gender differences, early childhood intervention, Abecedarian Project, treatment effect heterogeneity, family-wise error rate, false discovery rate, returns to education
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