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Multiple Inference and Gender Differences in the Effects of Early Intervention: A Reevaluation of the Abecedarian, Perry Preschool, and Early Training Projects
Abstract
The view that the returns to educational investments are highest for early childhood interventions is widely held and stems primarily from several influential randomized trials—Abecedarian, Perry, and the Early Training Project—that point to super-normal returns to early interventions. This article presents a de novo analysis of these experiments, focusing on two core issues that have received limited attention in previous analyses: treatment effect heterogeneity by gender and overrejection of the null hypothesis due to multiple inference. To address the latter issue, a statistical framework that combines summary index tests with familywise error rate and false discovery rate corrections is implemented. The first technique reduces the number of tests conducted; the latter two techniques adjust the p values for multiple inference. The primary finding of the reanalysis is that girls garnered substantial short- and long-term benefits from the interventions, but there were no significant long-term benefits for boys. These conclusions, which have appeared ambiguous when using “naive” estimators that fail to adjust for multiple testing, contribute to a growing literature on the emerging female–male academic achievement gap. They also demonstrate that in complex studies where multiple questions are asked of the same data set, it can be important to declare the family of tests under consideration and to either consolidate measures or report adjusted and unadjusted p values.
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“In the results presented in Extended Data Tables 6 and 7, we also adjusted for the fact that we conducted multiple tests on the same dataset by implementing FDR corrections and report the FDR q values50. We also report the bootstrapped P value51 to account for regressions with a small number of clusters.”
From Last-mile delivery increases vaccine uptake in Sierra Leone (2024) · cites this paper as [50]
In the citing paper
“Finally, we note that our findings are robust to Type I error concerns. 10 We calculate sharpened two-stage q-values in Table 4 (Benjamini et al., 2006b; Anderson, 2008) and the observed impacts remain statistically significant at the 1 percent level.”
From Food Coma is Real: The Effect of Digestive Fatigue on Adolescents' Cognitive Performance (2024) · cites this paper as Anderson, 2008
In the citing paper
“We perform False Discovery Rate (FDR) adjustment using the method described in (77), considering each experiment (Reduced and Increased Exposure) separately and grouping the variables as:”
From Reranking partisan animosity in algorithmic social media feeds alters affective polarization (2025) · cites this paper as [77]
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“The outcomes used to create each index are quite diverse and group a variety of very different outcomes (e.g., crime, employment, education). It is difficult to interpret his indices. Moreover, the components of his indices change with age.”
From Analyzing social experiments as implemented: A reexamination of the evidence from the HighScope Perry Preschool Program (2010) · cites this paper as Anderson (2008)
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“…Table 4 includes both conventional standard errors and significance and q-values corrected for false discovery rates due to multiple outcomes (Anderson, 2008).9 Predicted probabilities of these outcomes in response to the two climate variables are presented in Appendix Table A.1 and depicted…”
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“6 Precursors of these more recent papers are the Carolina Abecedarian Study (Campbell and Ramey 1994; Anderson 2008), the Milwaukee Project (Garber 1988), and Zigler and Butterfield (1968).”
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“Following Anderson (2008), a summary index is a weighted mean of standardized outcomes in which the weights—the inverse of the covariance matrix—are used to maximize the amount of information captured by the index.”
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“Conversely, evidence on the long-run impact of early childhood programs comes almost exclusively fromhighly targeted interventions, including theHeadStart, PerryPreschool, and Abecedarian programs (e.g., Garces, Thomas, and Currie 2002; Ludwig andMiller 2007; Anderson 2008; Deming 2009).”
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“Alternatively, Anderson (2008) and Ksoll et al. (2016) use sharpened q-values to adjust for multiple hypothesis testing.”
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“The first approach involves choosing a specific set of outcomes based on a priori notions of importance, and using summary index tests that pool multiple outcomes into a single measure (Anderson, 2008).”
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Betancourt, T. S., Thomson, D. L., Brennan, R. T., Antonaccio, C. M., Gilman, S. E., & VanderWeele, T. J. (2019) · Journal of the American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry · doi:10.1016/j.jaac.2019.05.026 · Cited by 96
“Journal of the American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry Volume - / Number - / - 2019 and studies of adults who faced adversities as children.(22,47,48)Adult mental health and social functioning in Sierra Leone’s former child soldiers were related to their war experiences and to postconflict risk and protectiv…”
BackgroundAuerbach, A. M. (2019) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108649377 · Cited by 113
Loyalka, P. K., Popova, A., Li, G., & Shi, Z. (2019) · American Economic Journal Applied Economics · doi:10.1257/app.20170226 · Cited by 117
Forward Guidance and Household Expectations
Coibion, O., Georgarakos, D., Gorodnichenko, Y., & Weber, M. (2023) · Journal of the European Economic Association · doi:10.1093/jeea/jvad003 · Cited by 94
Is Taxing Waste a Waste of Time? Evidence from a Supreme Court Decision
Carattini, S., Baranzini, A., & Lalive, R. (2018) · Ecological Economics · doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.02.001 · Cited by 93
“The statistical significance of the treatment effect on recycling, if any, is robust to the use of false discovery rate q-values for multiple regressions (Anderson, 2008).”
MethodOmotilewa, O., Ricker-Gilbert, J. E., Ainembabazi, J. H., & Shively, G. (2018) · Journal of Development Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.07.006 · Cited by 93
“Fortunately, there are methods to correct standard errors for multiple hypotheses testing without a substantial loss of power as in the Bonferroni correction (Anderson, 2008; Benjamini et al., 2006).”
InfluentialIntended and unintended effects of e-cigarette taxes on youth tobacco use
Abouk, R., Courtemanche, C., Dave, D., Feng, B., Friedman, A. S., Maclean, J. C., Pesko, M. F., Sabia, J. J., & Safford, S. (2022) · Journal of Health Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jhealeco.2022.102720 · Cited by 93
Broockman, D., & Kalla, J. (2024) · The Journal of Politics · doi:10.1086/730725 · Cited by 96
Schaner, S. G. (2018) · American Economic Journal Applied Economics · doi:10.1257/app.20170453 · Cited by 93
“Figure 3 graphs standard p-values in my main analysis as compared to sharpened q-values that control the false discovery rate (FDR).22 I follow Anderson (2008) and use the two-step procedure described by Benjamini et al. (2006) to calculate q-values.”
MethodGelli, A., Margolies, A., Santacroce, M., Roschnik, N., Twalibu, A., Katundu, M., Moestue, H., Alderman, H., & Ruel, M. T. (2018) · Journal of Nutrition · doi:10.1093/jn/nxy148 · Cited by 92
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Exploring Mechanisms of Effective Teacher Coaching
Blazar, D., & Kraft, M. A. (2015) · Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis · doi:10.3102/0162373715579487 · Cited by 90
“Anderson, M. L. (2008). Multiple inference and gender differences in the effects of early intervention: A reevaluation of the Abecedarian, Perry Preschool, and Early Training Projects.”
BackgroundInfluential
Metadata
- Authors
- Anderson, M. L.
- Affiliations
- University of California, Berkeley (US)
- Corresponding author
- Anderson, Michael L.
- ORCID
- Anderson, Michael L.
- Venue
- Journal of the American Statistical Association
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Published
- 2008-12-01
- Volume
- 103
- Issue
- 484
- Pages
- 1481-1495
- ISSN
- 0162-1459 (ISSN-L)
- 1537-274X
- OpenAlex
- W2099805722
- Cited by
- 2,410
- References
- 37
- Citations by year
- 2026: 210 · 2025: 258 · 2024: 262 · 2023: 266 · 2022: 258 · 2021: 240 · 2020: 187 · 2019: 147 · 2018: 117 · 2017: 85 · 2016: 93 · 2015: 65 · 2014: 47 · 2013: 68 · 2012: 37
- FWCI
- 99.90
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Journal of the American Statistical Association (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Education › Early Childhood Education and Development
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Advanced Causal Inference Techniques
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods and Bayesian Inference
- Keywords
- gender differences, early childhood intervention, Abecedarian Project, treatment effect heterogeneity, family-wise error rate, false discovery rate, returns to education
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