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Multiple Inference and Gender Differences in the Effects of Early Intervention: A Reevaluation of the Abecedarian, Perry Preschool, and Early Training Projects
Abstract
The view that the returns to educational investments are highest for early childhood interventions is widely held and stems primarily from several influential randomized trials—Abecedarian, Perry, and the Early Training Project—that point to super-normal returns to early interventions. This article presents a de novo analysis of these experiments, focusing on two core issues that have received limited attention in previous analyses: treatment effect heterogeneity by gender and overrejection of the null hypothesis due to multiple inference. To address the latter issue, a statistical framework that combines summary index tests with familywise error rate and false discovery rate corrections is implemented. The first technique reduces the number of tests conducted; the latter two techniques adjust the p values for multiple inference. The primary finding of the reanalysis is that girls garnered substantial short- and long-term benefits from the interventions, but there were no significant long-term benefits for boys. These conclusions, which have appeared ambiguous when using “naive” estimators that fail to adjust for multiple testing, contribute to a growing literature on the emerging female–male academic achievement gap. They also demonstrate that in complex studies where multiple questions are asked of the same data set, it can be important to declare the family of tests under consideration and to either consolidate measures or report adjusted and unadjusted p values.
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“In the results presented in Extended Data Tables 6 and 7, we also adjusted for the fact that we conducted multiple tests on the same dataset by implementing FDR corrections and report the FDR q values50. We also report the bootstrapped P value51 to account for regressions with a small number of clusters.”
From Last-mile delivery increases vaccine uptake in Sierra Leone (2024) · cites this paper as [50]
In the citing paper
“Finally, we note that our findings are robust to Type I error concerns. 10 We calculate sharpened two-stage q-values in Table 4 (Benjamini et al., 2006b; Anderson, 2008) and the observed impacts remain statistically significant at the 1 percent level.”
From Food Coma is Real: The Effect of Digestive Fatigue on Adolescents' Cognitive Performance (2024) · cites this paper as Anderson, 2008
In the citing paper
“We perform False Discovery Rate (FDR) adjustment using the method described in (77), considering each experiment (Reduced and Increased Exposure) separately and grouping the variables as:”
From Reranking partisan animosity in algorithmic social media feeds alters affective polarization (2025) · cites this paper as [77]
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“The outcomes used to create each index are quite diverse and group a variety of very different outcomes (e.g., crime, employment, education). It is difficult to interpret his indices. Moreover, the components of his indices change with age.”
From Analyzing social experiments as implemented: A reexamination of the evidence from the HighScope Perry Preschool Program (2010) · cites this paper as Anderson (2008)
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“, Angrist and Evans [1998] for the United States and McDougall, DeWit, and Ebanks [1999] for Canada).”
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“31 We also follow Anderson (2008) and address multiple inference in two additional ways (not reported): (1) using a free step-down resampling method to our p-values for familywise error rate, and (2) employing the false discovery rate control methodology proposed by Benjamini and Hochberg (1995).”
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“In Appendix Table S12, we present q-values controlling for FDR, as described in Anderson (2008).”
The effect of the affordable care act Medicaid expansions on financial wellbeing
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“23Because of the computationally intensive way our p-values are calculated, it is not feasible for us to use more powerful family-wise error rate controls that rely on bootstrapping such as those described in Anderson (2008). Hu et al.”
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“As a direct consequence, significant treatment effects may emerge simply by chance, even when all ATT (g, t)’s are equal to zero, see, e.g., Romano and Wolf (2005), Anderson (2008) and section 8 of Romano et al. (2010).”
The Power of Social Pensions: Evidence from China's New Rural Pension Scheme
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Multiple Hypothesis Testing in Experimental Economics
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Reshares on social media amplify political news but do not detectably affect beliefs or opinions
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Exhaustive or exhausting? Evidence on respondent fatigue in long surveys
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Metadata
- Authors
- Anderson, M. L.
- Affiliations
- University of California, Berkeley (US)
- Corresponding author
- Anderson, Michael L.
- ORCID
- Anderson, Michael L.
- Venue
- Journal of the American Statistical Association
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Published
- 2008-12-01
- Volume
- 103
- Issue
- 484
- Pages
- 1481-1495
- ISSN
- 0162-1459 (ISSN-L)
- 1537-274X
- OpenAlex
- W2099805722
- Cited by
- 2,410
- References
- 37
- Citations by year
- 2026: 210 · 2025: 258 · 2024: 262 · 2023: 266 · 2022: 258 · 2021: 240 · 2020: 187 · 2019: 147 · 2018: 117 · 2017: 85 · 2016: 93 · 2015: 65 · 2014: 47 · 2013: 68 · 2012: 37
- FWCI
- 99.90
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Journal of the American Statistical Association (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Education › Early Childhood Education and Development
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Advanced Causal Inference Techniques
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods and Bayesian Inference
- Keywords
- gender differences, early childhood intervention, Abecedarian Project, treatment effect heterogeneity, family-wise error rate, false discovery rate, returns to education
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