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Multiple Inference and Gender Differences in the Effects of Early Intervention: A Reevaluation of the Abecedarian, Perry Preschool, and Early Training Projects
Abstract
The view that the returns to educational investments are highest for early childhood interventions is widely held and stems primarily from several influential randomized trials—Abecedarian, Perry, and the Early Training Project—that point to super-normal returns to early interventions. This article presents a de novo analysis of these experiments, focusing on two core issues that have received limited attention in previous analyses: treatment effect heterogeneity by gender and overrejection of the null hypothesis due to multiple inference. To address the latter issue, a statistical framework that combines summary index tests with familywise error rate and false discovery rate corrections is implemented. The first technique reduces the number of tests conducted; the latter two techniques adjust the p values for multiple inference. The primary finding of the reanalysis is that girls garnered substantial short- and long-term benefits from the interventions, but there were no significant long-term benefits for boys. These conclusions, which have appeared ambiguous when using “naive” estimators that fail to adjust for multiple testing, contribute to a growing literature on the emerging female–male academic achievement gap. They also demonstrate that in complex studies where multiple questions are asked of the same data set, it can be important to declare the family of tests under consideration and to either consolidate measures or report adjusted and unadjusted p values.
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“In the results presented in Extended Data Tables 6 and 7, we also adjusted for the fact that we conducted multiple tests on the same dataset by implementing FDR corrections and report the FDR q values50. We also report the bootstrapped P value51 to account for regressions with a small number of clusters.”
From Last-mile delivery increases vaccine uptake in Sierra Leone (2024) · cites this paper as [50]
In the citing paper
“Finally, we note that our findings are robust to Type I error concerns. 10 We calculate sharpened two-stage q-values in Table 4 (Benjamini et al., 2006b; Anderson, 2008) and the observed impacts remain statistically significant at the 1 percent level.”
From Food Coma is Real: The Effect of Digestive Fatigue on Adolescents' Cognitive Performance (2024) · cites this paper as Anderson, 2008
In the citing paper
“We perform False Discovery Rate (FDR) adjustment using the method described in (77), considering each experiment (Reduced and Increased Exposure) separately and grouping the variables as:”
From Reranking partisan animosity in algorithmic social media feeds alters affective polarization (2025) · cites this paper as [77]
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“The outcomes used to create each index are quite diverse and group a variety of very different outcomes (e.g., crime, employment, education). It is difficult to interpret his indices. Moreover, the components of his indices change with age.”
From Analyzing social experiments as implemented: A reexamination of the evidence from the HighScope Perry Preschool Program (2010) · cites this paper as Anderson (2008)
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“Additionally, in columns 7 and 8, I create a summary health index following Anderson (2012).”
BackgroundDo Doctors Improve the Health Care of Their Parents? Evidence from Admission Lotteries
Artmann, E., Oosterbeek, H., & van der Klaauw, B. (2022) · American Economic Journal Applied Economics · doi:10.1257/app.20190629 · Cited by 13
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“We implement a test for multiple hypothesis testing by computing the sharpened false discovery rate (FDR) q -values, from Anderson (2008).”
MethodDifferential exposure to early childhood education services and mother–toddler interaction
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Urban Infrastructure and Economic Development: Experimental Evidence from Street PavementPreprint
Gonzalez-Navarro, M., & Quintana‐Domeque, C. (2010) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1720328 · Cited by 13
“in the theoretical literature (Romano and Wolf, 2005), and it has recently received some attention in the policy evaluation literature (Kling, Liebman, and Katz, 2007; Anderson, 2008).”
BackgroundThe impact of free, universal pre-school education on maternal labour supply
Brewer, M., Cattan, S., Crawford, C., & Rabe, B. (2014) · doi:10.1920/re.ifs.2024.0467 · Cited by 13
Social Experiments in the Labor Market
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“A full discussion of adjustment for multiple comparisons is beyond the scope of this chapter, but Anderson (2008) is a useful reference.”
Insecurity and Industrial Organization: Evidence from Afghanistan
Blumenstock, J. E., Ghani, T., Herskowitz, S. R., Kapstein, E. B., Scherer, T., & Toomet, O. (2018) · World Bank, Washington, DC eBooks · doi:10.1596/1813-9450-8301 · Cited by 13
Expanding Access to Clean Water for the Rural Poor: Experimental Evidence from Malawi
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The Role of Information and Cash Transfers on Early Childhood Development: Evidence from Nepal
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Does Gamification in Education Work?: Experimental Evidence from Chile
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Making Entrepreneurs: Returns to Training Youth in Hard Versus Soft Business Skills
Chioda, L., Contreras-Loya, D., Gertler, P., & Carney, D. (2021) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w28845 · Cited by 13
“Aggregate test scores were computed as standardized weighted averages following Anderson (2008).”
MethodAttitudes and Policies toward Refugees: Evidence from Low- and Middle-Income Countries
Aksoy, C. G., & Ginn, T. (2022) · World Bank, Washington, DC eBooks · doi:10.1596/1813-9450-9985 · Cited by 16
Inference on Optimal Treatment AssignmentsPreprint
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Dube, O., MacArthur, S. J., & Shah, A. (2023) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w31651 · Cited by 13
Using Split Samples to Improve Inference on Causal Effects
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“In those situations, researchers can aggregate the outcomes into adequately defined indices (Anderson, 2008).”
BackgroundBurke, J., Jamison, J., Karlan, D., Mihály, K., & Zinman, J. (2022) · Review of Financial Studies · doi:10.1093/rfs/hhac060 · Cited by 12
Does the association between internal migration and personality traits hold in different countries?
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Improved menstrual health and the workplace: An RCT with female Bangladeshi garment workers
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Anderson, M., & Davis, L. W. (2023) · The Review of Economics and Statistics · doi:10.1162/rest_a_01385 · Cited by 12
“…a long history in economics of empirical analyses of traffic fatalities (Peltzman, 1975; Levitt and Porter, 2001; Cohen and Einav, 2003; Ashenfelter and Greenstone, 2004; White, 2004; Anderson, 2008a; Abouk and Adams, 2013; Jacobsen, 2013; Anderson and Auffhammer, 2014; DeAngelo and Hansen, 2014).”
BackgroundSelf-citationEarly childhood human capital formation at scale
Bos, J. M., Shonchoy, A., Ravindran, S., & Khan, A. (2024) · Journal of Public Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jpubeco.2023.105046 · Cited by 17
Effective leadership across economic contexts
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Glyphosate exposure and GM seed rollout unequally reduced perinatal health
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Political competition and rural welfare: evidence from Pakistan
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“We combined these into a “justice index” by normalizing each variable and averaging across all seven; doing so allows us to avoid problems associated with multiple hypothesis testing (Anderson, 2008).”
MethodRaising Aspirations of Boys and Girls through Role Models: Evidence from a Field Experiment
Golan, J., & You, J. (2020) · The Journal of Development Studies · doi:10.1080/00220388.2020.1826445 · Cited by 12
“In order to reduce the multiplicity of hypotheses to be tested, we follow Anderson (2008) and construct sub-indices to proxy these three channels combining several variables (see Appendix E in the Supplementary Materials for details).”
MethodThrough Their Own Eyes: The Implications of COVID-19 for PhD Students
Haas, N., Gureghian, A., Díaz, C. J., & Williams, A. M. (2020) · Journal of Experimental Political Science · doi:10.1017/xps.2020.34 · Cited by 12
The effect of co-payments on the take-up of prenatal tests
Giacomo, M. D., Massimiliano Piacenza, B., Siciliani, L., & Turati, G. (2021) · Journal of Health Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jhealeco.2021.102553 · Cited by 13
“24 For the the ‘Screening test’ coefficients, Tables 8 and 9 report the original p-values and the “adjusted” p-values (the sharpened False Discovery Rate, FDR, q-values by Anderson, 2008), to account for multiple testing hypothesis.”
MethodIncreasing the adoption of conservation agriculture: A framed field experiment in Northern Ghana
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Kim, H. Y., HSIN, L. B., & Snow, C. E. (2018) · International Journal of Bilingual Education and Bilingualism · doi:10.1080/13670050.2018.1535574 · Cited by 12
The socio-economic distribution of exposure to Ebola: Survey evidence from Liberia and Sierra Leone
Grépin, K. A., Poirier, M. J. P., & FOX, A. M. (2019) · SSM - Population Health · doi:10.1016/j.ssmph.2019.100472 · Cited by 12
Experimental evidence on personality traits and preferences
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Elementary School Interventions
Hemelt, S. W., Roth, K. B., & Eaton, W. W. (2013) · Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis · doi:10.3102/0162373713493131 · Cited by 12
“Prior work on the GBG and ML, as well as work examining other childhood programs, found clear differences in the effects of these programs on a host of outcomes by gender (Anderson, 2008; Dolan et al., 1993).”
BackgroundResultInfluentialGrowing together: assessing equity and efficiency in a prenatal health program
Clarke, D., Méndez, G. C., & Sepúlveda, D. V. (2020) · Journal of Population Economics · doi:10.1007/s00148-019-00761-6 · Cited by 13
“The Anderson (2008) index converts the multiple dependent variables into a single dependent variable (index) giving more weight to variables which provide more independent variation.”
BackgroundMethodBankruptcy as Implicit Health InsurancePreprint
Mahoney, N. (2013) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2329327 · Cited by 12
The Future in Mind: Aspirations and Forward-Looking Behaviour in Rural EthiopiaPreprint
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Parental Arrest, Incarceration and the Outcomes of Their ChildrenPreprint
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Are the poor so present-biased?
Cassidy, R. (2018) · doi:10.1920/wp.ifs.2018.2418 · Cited by 12
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Building Nations Through Shared Experiences: Evidence from African Football
Depetris-Chauvín, E., Durante, R., & Campante, F. R. (2018) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w24666 · Cited by 12
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Job Search and Hiring with Two-sided Limited Information about Workseekers’ Skills
Carranza, E., Garlick, R., Orkin, K., & Rankin, N. (2020) · doi:10.17848/wp20-328 · Cited by 12
A Replication Study of Operations Management Experiments in Management SciencePreprint
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“9 We follow Benjamini et al. (2006) and Anderson (2008) to account for multiple hypothesis tests.”
BackgroundLucky Late Bloomers? The Consequences of Early Marriage for Women in Western KenyaPreprint
Hicks, J. H., & Hicks, D. L. (2015) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2622189 · Cited by 12
Levere, M., Acharya, G., & Bharadwaj, P. (2022) · Economic Development and Cultural Change · doi:10.1086/723203 · Cited by 11
“” For all other areas, we follow the methods of Anderson (2008) and used by Atta-nasio, Oppedisano, and Vera-Hernández (2015).”
MethodInfluentialLong-run exposure to low-dose radiation reduces cognitive performance
Elsner, B., & Wozny, F. (2023) · Journal of Environmental Economics and Management · doi:10.1016/j.jeem.2023.102785 · Cited by 11
Kıbrıs, A., & Goodwin, R. B. (2023) · Social Science & Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2023.116453 · Cited by 13
“…of ACE on each of these symptoms as well as on a Depression Index we construct as a weighted average of the scores on these items constructed by utilizing the method of Anderson (2008) which employs the inverse covariance matrix, lowering the weights of variables with higher correlation levels.”
Long-term effects of early life rainfall shocks on foundational cognitive skills: Evidence from Peru
Pazos, N., Favara, M., Sánchez, A., Scott, D., & Behrman, J. R. (2024) · Economics & Human Biology · doi:10.1016/j.ehb.2024.101407 · Cited by 11
Community electrification and women’s autonomy
Bhukta, R., Pakrashi, D., Saha, S., & Sedai, A. K. (2024) · Energy Economics · doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107792 · Cited by 11
“For each outcome variable in table 4, we report number of observations and number of switchers 23 along with the sharpened q values 24 following the method by Anderson [2008], which adjust the p values for multiple hypothesis testing.”
Sustainable energy consumption and finance in the presence of risks: Towards a green economy
Hondroyiannis, G., Papapetrou, E., & Tsalaporta, P. (2024) · Renewable Energy · doi:10.1016/j.renene.2024.121565 · Cited by 11
The effects of resource-backed loans on deforestation: Evidence from developing countries
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Vatsa, R., Chang, W., Akinyi, S., Little, S. E., Gakii, C., Mungai, J., Kahumbura, C., Wickramanayake, A., Rajasekharan, S., Cohen, J., et al. (2025) · PLoS Medicine · doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1004527 · Cited by 16
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Does Quebec’s subsidized child care policy give boys and girls an equal start?
Kottelenberg, M. J., & Lehrer, S. (2018) · Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d économique · doi:10.1111/caje.12333 · Cited by 11
“Nowadays, a growing body of international evidence documents that even as early as age five, boys are lagging far behind girls in basic reading, writing and math.(1) Early childhood is also increasingly emerging as the point in the lifecycle where politicians, policy makers and researchers suggest that early education…”
Follow the leader? A field experiment on social influence
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Vandevelde, S., Campenhout, B. V., & Walukano, W. (2021) · The Journal of Agricultural Education and Extension · doi:10.1080/1389224x.2021.1880454 · Cited by 12
“Following Anderson (2008), the following steps are undertaken to construct indices for each category.”
MethodTauseef, S. (2021) · Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics · doi:10.1111/obes.12465 · Cited by 11
森安, 亮., & Kobayashi, T. (2022) · Japan and the World Economy · doi:10.1016/j.japwor.2022.101146 · Cited by 11
The impact of spousal and own retirement on health: Evidence from urban China
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Virtual teams in a gig economy
Ye, T., Ai, W., Chen, Y., Mei, Q., Ye, J., & Zhang, L. (2022) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2206580119 · Cited by 11
Crossbred poultry adoption and impact: Evidence from Ethiopia
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Long-term impact of exposure to violent conflict: Are there gender differences?
Islam, A., Mahanta, R., Mandal, R., Nath, H. K., Ouch, C., & Sarkar, D. (2023) · Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization · doi:10.1016/j.jebo.2023.02.011 · Cited by 15
Dupas, P., & Jain, R. (2023) · Journal of Public Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jpubeco.2023.104841 · Cited by 6
Nudging Payment Behavior: Evidence from a Field Experiment on Pay-as-You-Go Off-Grid Electricity
Bonan, J., D’Adda, G., Mahmud, M., & Said, F. (2023) · The World Bank Economic Review · doi:10.1093/wber/lhad012 · Cited by 11
School, drugs, mentoring, and peers: Evidence from a randomized trial in the US
Rodríguez‐Planas, N. (2017) · Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization · doi:10.1016/j.jebo.2017.05.003 · Cited by 11
The Effects of Universal Preschool on Grade Retention
Miller, L. C., & Bassok, D. (2017) · Education Finance and Policy · doi:10.1162/edfp_a_00248 · Cited by 11
The long-term spillover effects of changes in the return to schooling
Abramitzky, R., Lavy, V., & Pérez, S. T. (2021) · Journal of Public Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jpubeco.2021.104369 · Cited by 9
Exploring Impacts of Community-Based Legal Aid on Intrahousehold Gender Relations in Tanzania
Mueller, V., Peterman, A., Billings, L., & Wineman, A. (2019) · Feminist Economics · doi:10.1080/13545701.2018.1554906 · Cited by 11
“To adjust inferences for family-wise error rates, we provide BenjaminiHochberg q values for the analysis on the disaggregated outcomes using the procedure in Anderson (2008).”
MethodQuattrochi, J. P., Biaba, R., Nordås, R., Østby, G., Alldén, S., Cikara, A., Namegabe, E., & Amisi, C. (2019) · International Journal for Equity in Health · doi:10.1186/s12939-019-1049-4 · Cited by 16
Social Experiments in the Labor Market
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Management, supervision, and healthcare: A field experiment
Dunsch, F. A., Evans, D. K., Eze‐Ajoku, E., & Macis, M. (2022) · Journal of Economics & Management Strategy · doi:10.1111/jems.12471 · Cited by 12
Management practices and public policy: an overview
Quinn, S., & Scur, D. (2021) · Oxford Review of Economic Policy · doi:10.1093/oxrep/grab007 · Cited by 11
Emergency cash transfers for informal workers: Impact evidence from Mexico
Canedo, A. P., Fabregas, R., & Gupta, P. (2023) · Journal of Public Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jpubeco.2023.104820 · Cited by 13
Do Women Receive Less Blame Than Men? Attribution of Outcomes in a Prosocial Setting
Erkal, N., Gangadharan, L., & Koh, B. H. (2022) · Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization · doi:10.1016/j.jebo.2023.04.003 · Cited by 11
Drange, N., & Telle, K. E. (2010) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · Cited by 11
Roads to Development: Experimental Evidence from Urban Road Pavement
Gonzalez-Navarro, M., & Quintana-Domeque, C. (2010) · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1558631 · Cited by 11
“, 2007; Anderson, (2008)).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialGuryan, J., Kim, J. S., & Quinn, D. M. (2014) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w20689 · Cited by 12
Improving Transparency in Observational Social Science Research: A Pre-Analysis Plan ApproachPreprint
Burlig, F. (2016) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2731920 · Cited by 11
“5 See Anderson (2008), Fink et al. (2014), List et al. (2016), and Casey et al. (0000) for further detail on multiple testing corrections.”
BackgroundInfluentialBanking on Trust: How Debit Cards Enable the Poor to Save MorePreprint
Bachas, P. J., Gertler, P., Higgins, S., & Seira, E. (2017) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · Cited by 11
Tailoring Instruction to Improve Mathematics Skills in Preschools: A Randomized Evaluation
Gallego, F., Näslund-Hadley, E. I., & Alfonso, M. (2018) · doi:10.18235/0001090 · Cited by 12
The impact of daycare on maternal labour supply and child development in Mexico
Ángeles, G., Gadsden, P., INSP, Galiani, S., Gertler, P., Herrera, A., Kariger, P. K., Seira, E., & INSP, I. (2014) · doi:10.23846/ow11043 · Cited by 12
The Empty Promise of Urbanisation: Women’s Political Participation in Pakistan
Cheema, A., Liaqat, A., Khan, S. A., Mohmand, S. K., & Rauf, S. F. (2021) · OpenDocs (Institute of Development Studies) · doi:10.19088/ids.2021.021 · Cited by 12
“We use PSLM data to construct the ‘women’s empowerment index’ using the inverse covariance weighting approach (Anderson 2008).”
MethodThe Dozen Things Experimental Economists Should Do (More of)
Czibor, E., Jimenez‐Gomez, D., & List, J. A. (2019) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w25451 · Cited by 12
Participatory Theater Empowers Women: Evidence from India
Hoff, K., Jalan, J., & Santra, S. (2021) · World Bank, Washington, DC eBooks · doi:10.1596/1813-9450-9680 · Cited by 11
“…household decisions 0.100* 0.015** Attitudes toward wife beating 0.000*** 0.001*** Report acts of domestic violence he/she witnesses 0.000*** 0.001*** Would help demolish an illegal liquor shop 0.000*** 0.001*** No awareness of laws 0.006*** 0.004*** Sharpened q-values are based on Anderson (2008).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialWebb, D. (2023) · The Economic Journal · doi:10.1093/ej/uead105 · Cited by 12
Transfers, nutrition programming, and economic well-being: Experimental evidence from Bangladesh
Ahmed, A., Hoddinott, J. F., Roy, S., & Sraboni, E. (2023) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2023.106414 · Cited by 12
Do Smaller Local Governments Bring Citizens More? Evidence from Direct Elections in Indonesia
Singhania, D. (2022) · The World Bank Economic Review · doi:10.1093/wber/lhac010 · Cited by 10
Hyman, J. (2025) · Journal of Labor Economics · doi:10.1086/736154 · Cited by 1
Removing Phones from Classrooms Improves Academic Performance
Sungu, A., Choudhury, P. K., & Bjerre-Nielsen, A. (2025) · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5370727 · Cited by 1
Metadata
- Authors
- Anderson, M. L.
- Affiliations
- University of California, Berkeley (US)
- Corresponding author
- Anderson, Michael L.
- ORCID
- Anderson, Michael L.
- Venue
- Journal of the American Statistical Association
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Published
- 2008-12-01
- Volume
- 103
- Issue
- 484
- Pages
- 1481-1495
- ISSN
- 0162-1459 (ISSN-L)
- 1537-274X
- OpenAlex
- W2099805722
- Cited by
- 2,410
- References
- 37
- Citations by year
- 2026: 210 · 2025: 258 · 2024: 262 · 2023: 266 · 2022: 258 · 2021: 240 · 2020: 187 · 2019: 147 · 2018: 117 · 2017: 85 · 2016: 93 · 2015: 65 · 2014: 47 · 2013: 68 · 2012: 37
- FWCI
- 99.90
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Journal of the American Statistical Association (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Education › Early Childhood Education and Development
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Advanced Causal Inference Techniques
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods and Bayesian Inference
- Keywords
- gender differences, early childhood intervention, Abecedarian Project, treatment effect heterogeneity, family-wise error rate, false discovery rate, returns to education
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