The DOI matches its Crossref record; 33 of the 39 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; none of the 12 sources its claims cite is checked for support yet.
Explaining Job Polarization: Routine-Biased Technological Change and Offshoring
Open accessAbstract
This paper documents the pervasiveness of job polarization in 16 Western European countries over the period 1993–2010. It then develops and estimates a framework to explain job polarization using routine-biased technological change and offshoring. This model can explain much of both total job polarization and the split into within-industry and between-industry components. (JEL J21, J23, J24, M55, O33)
Overview
AI snapshot
Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
Job polarization is documented across 16 Western European countries from 1993 to 2010, with rising employment shares in high- and low-paid occupations and falling shares in middling occupations. A model combining routine-biased technological change and offshoring explains much of this total polarization and its within- and between-industry components, with routine-biased technological change mattering far more than offshoring.
Key findings
- Pooled across the 16 countries, high-paying occupations gained 5.62 percentage points of employment share, middling occupations lost 9.27 points, and low-paying occupations gained 3.65 points between 1993 and 2010. Both within-industry and between-industry components were positive for high- and low-paying groups and negative for the middling group.
- Polarization appeared in every country studied: Table 2 shows high- and low-paying occupation shares rising relative to middling occupations in each of the 16 countries.
- In the labor-demand estimates, an occupation one standard deviation higher in routine task intensity grew about 0.90 percentage points less fast per year (RTI coefficient −0.900 in column 1). Offshorability had a small and statistically insignificant coefficient when RTI was included (−0.013 in column 1; −0.006 in column 3), while offshorability alone was negative and significant (−0.383 in column 5) but lost the horse race against RTI.
- The model predicted 79 percent of the observed high-paying occupation share increase (4.45/5.62), 74 percent of the middling occupation decrease (6.86/9.27), and 66 percent of the low-paying occupation increase (2.41/3.65). The estimated product-demand elasticity was 0.42, implying that demand shifts attenuate the between-industry effect by 42 percent but do not reverse it.
Methods
- Employment data come from the European Union Labour Force Survey for 1993–2010, using weekly hours worked, two-digit ISCO occupations, and one-digit NACE industries; Germany is covered using the SIAB social-security sample for 1993–2008. Output, marginal costs, and relative prices come from the OECD STAN database.
- Routine task intensity is based on the Autor–Dorn RTI index mapped into European occupations; offshorability uses Blinder and Krueger’s preferred professional-coder measure. Both are normalized to mean zero and standard deviation one.
- The paper develops a two-stage production model in which industry output is produced from tasks and tasks use domestic labor plus another input whose cost changes with routineness and offshorability. It estimates labor-demand equations with occupation–industry–country fixed effects and clustered standard errors, then uses a shift-share decomposition to separate within- and between-industry changes.
Limitations
- The paper states that the RTI and offshorability measures are imperfect, may contain different amounts of measurement error, and make it difficult to distinguish the separate effects of routine-biased technological change and offshoring beyond reasonable doubt.
- The paper states that wage data by country, occupation, and time are poor and potentially endogenous, so wages are modeled with dummies rather than included directly. It also notes that the homotheticity assumption is restrictive, though it reports no evidence of non-homotheticity at its level of industry aggregation.
- The paper states that the model leaves room for additional factors. Evident from the text: the constant-returns assumption is rejected in one specification because the output coefficient is below one, so the authors impose a coefficient of one in later columns; offshoring is statistically insignificant when RTI is included; and the model’s predictions do not match actual changes exactly.
Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
0 of 12 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For the group of the eight highest-paid occupations, our model predicts an increase in employment share that is 79 percent (4.45/5.62) of the increase actually observed.”
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Column 4 of Table 3 excludes offshorability from the regression equation to examine the impact of RBTC unconditional on offshoring, and this does not affect the RTI point estimate.”
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A comparison of columns 1 and 4 shows that our model explains most of overall job polarization.”
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesThe paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“given an estimate for ε of 0.42, we must have that for each occupation the attenuation effect is 42 percent of the between-industry effect for ε = 0.”
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For the group of nine middling occupations, the model predicts a decrease that is 74 percent (6.86/9.27) of the total observed employment share decrease.”
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“On the other hand, the employment shares of office clerks (41), craft and related trades workers (71 to 74), and plant and machine operators and assemblers (81 to 83), which pay around the median occupational wage, have declined.”
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Our estimates suggest that RBTC is much more important than offshoring.”
- Also stated in: § B. The Production of Tasks · plain
“In sum, this is evidence that within industries there is a shift in relative demand away from occupations that are more routine and offshorable with the former being the much more important effect.”
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes- Also stated in: § B. The Production of Tasks · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The magnitude of the estimated effects is such that an occupation that is one standard deviation more intense in RTI is growing 0.90 percentage points less fast each year.”
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIn the paper
“We then regress these measures of actual offshoring by occupation on Blinder and Krueger's (2013) preferred measure of an occupation's offshorability to find that they are strongly and positively correlated.”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Blinder and Krueger (2013)
Strength:boosted· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesThe paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Within each industry there is a shift away from routine occupations leading to within-industry job polarization.”
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes
- It may state two separate claims as one. 30
- Probably not a substantial claim. 8
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In sum, this is evidence that within industries there is a shift in relative demand away from occupations that are more routine and offshorable with the former being the much more important effect.”
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The correlation coefficient between the RTI and offshorability measure is 0.46 and statistically significant suggesting that routineness and offshorability may be linked.”
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The coefficient on offshorability is also negative, but small in absolute value and not statistically significantly different from zero.”
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The paper establishes that job polarization is pervasive across European economies in the period 1993-2010 and has within-industry and between-industry components that are both important.”
Load-bearingStrength:boosted· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This does not affect the RTI and offshorability coefficients and results in an estimate of 0.90 for η.”
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Because the RTI index is much more important in column 3 of Table 3 almost all of these changes come from the RTI variable.”
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, the coefficient on log industry output is less than unity which rejects our assumption of constant returns to scale in goods production.”
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Goods production has constant returns to scale.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The coefficient on RTI is negative and significantly different from zero at the 1 percent level.”
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“What this shows is that overall job polarization can be split into a within-industry and between-industry component, each of which is too large quantitatively to be ignored.”
- Also stated in: § II. Job Polarization · plain
“In sum, the phenomenon of job polarization is pervasive across advanced economies.Moreover, overall job polarization is driven by job polarization both within and between industries.”
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Also stated in: § II. Job Polarization · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The employment structure in Western Europe has been polarizing with rising employment shares for high-paid professionals and managers as well as low-paid personal service workers and falling employment shares of manufacturing and routine office workers.”
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We show that our economic model explains a sizable part not just of overall job polarization but also the split into within-industry and between-industry components.”
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Similar to patterns found for the United States and United Kingdom, there has been an increase in the employment shares for some low-paid service workers (51, of which the main task consists of providing services related to travel, catering, and personal care; but not 52, of which the main task consists of selling goods in shops or at markets)”
- Also stated in: § II. Job Polarization · plain
“and some low-paid elementary occupations (91), which are service elementary workers including cleaners, domestic helpers, doorkeepers, porters, security personnel, and garbage collectors; but not 93, which mainly includes low-educated laborers in manufacturing performing simple tasks including product-sorting and packing and unpacking produce).”
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Also stated in: § II. Job Polarization · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The coefficient on log industry marginal cost-which is an estimate of η-is positive and significant as is predicted by our model.”
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For example, physical, mathematical, and engineering professionals (21) is ranked as nonroutine but at the same time highly offshorable whereas office clerks (41) are very routine but not very offshorable.”
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For the group of eight highest-paid and four lowest-paid occupations the within-industry and between-industry components are positive, and for the group of nine middling occupations they are both negative.”
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We show that, in our data, this effect attenuates between-industry job polarization but does not overturn it.”
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The term before the curly brackets, s jt [ 1 -η ] [1 -κ] γ R , is occupation j's share of total employment, s jt , multiplied by the RTI coefficient in Table 3, [1 -η][1 -κ] γ R , which is negative.”
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“offshoring while not conditioning on RBTC does appear to have some explanatory power but it is noticeable that the fit is poorer e.g., offshoring cannot explain the decline in the employment share of office clerks within industries.”
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“our estimates are such that RBTC and offshoring lead to job polarization within and between industries”
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The model assumes homothetic demand, meaning aggregate income's level and distribution leave the cross-industry demand distribution unchanged.
- The authors state this as an assumption: For each industry, task j's cost share is assumed to equal occupation j's employment share.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“equation (13) shows how a shift-share analysis-that is commonly thought of as merely an accounting exercise-can be rooted in our framework.”
- Also stated in: § IV. Explaining Job Polarization within and between Industries · plain
“equation (13) shows how changes in occupational employment shares can be decomposed into a within-industry and between-industry component”
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The model assumes homothetic demand, meaning aggregate income's level and distribution leave the cross-industry demand distribution unchanged.
- The authors state this as an assumption: For each industry, task j's cost share is assumed to equal occupation j's employment share.
- Also stated in: § IV. Explaining Job Polarization within and between Industries · plain
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Instead of pooling countries, reporting unweighted average employment shares and their changes across countries would not qualitatively change the numbers in columns 1 and 2 of Table1.”
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Note that the predicted changes from equation (13) are precisely the effects from RBTC and offshoring and cannot be explained by any industry or industry-time specific changes in employment shares.”
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The model assumes homothetic demand, meaning aggregate income's level and distribution leave the cross-industry demand distribution unchanged.
- The authors state this as an assumption: For each industry, task j's cost share is assumed to equal occupation j's employment share.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“RBTC will typically cause less routine employment to be used in the production of a given level of output, so differences in routineness across industries will cause industry employment shares to change even if industry output shares do not.”
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The model assumes homothetic demand, meaning aggregate income's level and distribution leave the cross-industry demand distribution unchanged.
- The authors state this as an assumption: For each industry, task j's cost share is assumed to equal occupation j's employment share.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Overall, our model and results suggest that RBTC and offshoring explain much of job polarization and its within-industry and between-industry components, although the results certainly leave room for additional factors to play a role.”
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“routine intensive industries will see a larger fall in industry costs and therefore relative output prices.This will increase the demand for routine intensive goods and therefore the demand for all occupations used in routine intensive industries.”
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The model assumes homothetic demand, meaning aggregate income's level and distribution leave the cross-industry demand distribution unchanged.
- The authors state this as an assumption: For each industry, task j's cost share is assumed to equal occupation j's employment share.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the within-industry and between-industry effects in equation (13) are economically meaningful and depend on the different elasticities in the model.”
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The model assumes homothetic demand, meaning aggregate income's level and distribution leave the cross-industry demand distribution unchanged.
- The authors state this as an assumption: For each industry, task j's cost share is assumed to equal occupation j's employment share.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“this channel will tend to attenuate the first part of the between-industry effect though will not overturn it as long as ε < 1 as our estimate for ε of 0.42 suggests.”
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The model assumes homothetic demand, meaning aggregate income's level and distribution leave the cross-industry demand distribution unchanged.
- The authors state this as an assumption: For each industry, task j's cost share is assumed to equal occupation j's employment share.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The second term in the curly brackets, [1 -ε] /[1 -η] ∑ i=1 I s i | jt ( R it I -R t agg ), is the between-industry component.This can be thought of as having two parts.”
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The model assumes homothetic demand, meaning aggregate income's level and distribution leave the cross-industry demand distribution unchanged.
- The authors state this as an assumption: For each industry, task j's cost share is assumed to equal occupation j's employment share.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“One might be concerned that our results are sensitive to the start and end years.However, online Appendix A presents the employment shares for all years showing that changes are close to linear trends.”
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Job polarization has also been documented for Germany (Spitz-Oener 2006;Dustmann, Ludsteck, and Schönberg 2009) and there are indications it is pervasive in European countries (Goos, Manning, and Salomons 2009;Michaels, Natraj, and Van Reenen 2014).”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Spitz-Oener 2006
- Not checked yetcites Dustmann, Ludsteck, and Schönberg 2009
- Not checked yetcites Goos, Manning, and Salomons 2009
Load-bearingStrength:hedged· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Firstly, using point estimates in column 4 of Table 3, thereby using the estimated impact of RBTC unconditional on offshoring.Results are very similar to those presented in Table 4 and Figure 1.”
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“The authors argue that it is likely that jobs that can be broken down into simple, routine tasks are easier to offshore than jobs requiring complex thinking, judgment, and human interaction.”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Blinder and Krueger (2013)
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“This is in line withBlinder and Krueger (2013) who find that offshorability is conceptually distinct from, though related to, an occupation's routineness.”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Blinder and Krueger (2013)
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As our RTI and offshorability measures are undoubtedly imperfect, and the extent of measurement error in them may also be different, one has to be careful in one's claims about the ability to distinguish beyond reasonable doubt the separate effects of RBTC and offshoring.”
Load-bearingStrength:hedged· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
In the paper
“Consequently,Blinder and Krueger (2013) conclude that their measure of offshorability is more germane to the offshoring issue than is the question of routineness but that the two criteria do overlap.”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Blinder and Krueger (2013)
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
The authors state this as an assumption.
Output in an industry is produced by combining tasks via a CES production function with elasticity of substitution η greater than zero.
“Assume that output in industry i is produced by combining certain common building blocks that we will call tasks.In general, assume the following CES production function for industry i using tasks T 1 , … , T ij , … , T J as inputs:”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Task output is produced using domestic labor of occupation j and one other input via a Cobb-Douglas production function common across industries, with 0<κ<1.
“If industry i uses domestic labor of occupation j, N ij , and the other input, K ij , we assume that the total production of task j is given by a Cobb-Douglas production function that is common across industries:”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The technology to produce task j and factor prices w_j and r_j are common across industries, so the marginal cost to produce task j has no industry subscript.
“Note that it is assumed that the technology to produce task j together with factor prices w j and r j are common across industries such that the marginal cost to produce task j has no subscript i.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Routine-biased technological change and offshoring affect the cost of the other input according to ∂ log r_jt/∂t = γ_R R_j + γ_F F_j.
“We model RBTC and offshoring as affecting the costs of the inputs other than domestic labor, in particular that (5) ∂ log r jt _ ∂ t = γ R R j + γ F F j , with R j the routineness and F j the offshorability measure discussed in Section I.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The log demand for industry output is given by log Y_ict = -ε log P_ict + log Y_ct + ξ_ict.
“To do this, assume that the log demand for industry output is given by (7) log Y ict = -ε log P ict + log Y ct + ξ ict ,”
The authors state this as an assumption.
There is monopolistic competition within each industry, with log P_ict = log μ + log c^I_ict and μ>1.
“If there is monopolistic competition within each industry we have that log P ict = log μ + log c ict I with μ > 1 the price mark-up.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The industry output demand specification could be derived from a CES utility function with homothetic preferences.
“This specification could be derived from an underlying CES utility function in which consumers have homothetic preferences.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Goods production has constant returns to scale.
“However, the coefficient on log industry output is less than unity which rejects our assumption of constant returns to scale in goods production.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The model assumes homothetic demand, meaning aggregate income's level and distribution leave the cross-industry demand distribution unchanged.
“The assumption of homotheticity implies that changes in both the level and the distribution of aggregate income have no effect on the distribution of demand across industries.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
For each industry, task j's cost share is assumed to equal occupation j's employment share.
“the simplifying assumption that the share of task j in industry costs is the same as the share of employment of occupation j in that industry.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The source backs part of the claim, not all of it — or backs it for a different population, condition or comparison.
In the citing paper
“Studies conducted in high income countries document that a growing number of workers are employed in occupations which are characterized as precarious (5–8).”
From Large language model exposure and precarious occupations: Unpacking relationships in the Canadian labor force (2026) · cites this paper as [6]
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe source backs part of the claim, not all of it — or backs it for a different population, condition or comparison.
In the citing paper
“The automation of work was most prominent among occupations with repetitive job tasks and low skill requirements, which have been amongst the most precarious (6).”
From Large language model exposure and precarious occupations: Unpacking relationships in the Canadian labor force (2026) · cites this paper as [6]
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe source backs part of the claim, not all of it — or backs it for a different population, condition or comparison.
In the citing paper
“Research conducted during past periods of technological change have indicated that the adoption of new technologies has been associated with increases in precariousness reported by workers in occupations facing the lowest quality employment conditions (5, 6).”
From Large language model exposure and precarious occupations: Unpacking relationships in the Canadian labor force (2026) · cites this paper as [6]
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe source backs part of the claim, not all of it — or backs it for a different population, condition or comparison.
In the citing paper
“Many of these studies have found that as technology becomes pervasive across industries, developed economies are increasingly requesting more highly skilled workers, while reducing the number of low skilled and routine jobs (Autor, 2014, Goos et al., 2014).”
From Skills or degree? The rise of skill-based hiring for AI and green jobs (2025) · cites this paper as Goos et al., 2014
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredIn the citing paper
“Third, many entry level and manual jobs are in fact not routine and, therefore, not easily codifiable (Goos et al. 2014;Autor et al. 2015, Barbieri et al. 2020).”
From Artificial intelligence and work: a critical review of recent research from the social sciences (2024) · cites this paper as Goos et al. 2014
Citations
Cites
The Skill Content of Recent Technological Change: An Empirical Exploration
Autor, D. H., Levy, F., & Murnane, R. J. (2003) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1162/003355303322552801 · Cited by 6,205
Moffitt, R. (2009) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.99.2.660 · Cited by 4,888
Changes in Relative Wages, 1963-1987: Supply and Demand Factors
Katz, L. F., & Murphy, K. M. (1992) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.2307/2118323 · Cited by 4,793
Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation
Autor, D. H. (2015) · Journal of Economic Perspectives · doi:10.1257/jep.29.3.3 · Cited by 3,917
The growth of low-skill service jobs and the polarization of the US labor market
Autor, D. H., & Dorn, D. (2013) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.103.5.1553 · Cited by 3,824
The Skill Content of Recent Technological Change: An Empirical Exploration
Autor, D., Levy, F. S., & Murnane, R. J. (2001) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w8337 · Cited by 2,633
Trends in U.S. Wage Inequality: Revising the Revisionists
Autor, D., Katz, L. F., & Kearney, M. S. (2008) · The Review of Economics and Statistics · doi:10.1162/rest.90.2.300 · Cited by 2,381
Lousy and Lovely Jobs: The Rising Polarization of Work in Britain
Goos, M., & Manning, A. (2007) · The Review of Economics and Statistics · doi:10.1162/rest.89.1.118 · Cited by 2,287
Self-citationTrading Tasks: A Simple Theory of Offshoring
Grossman, G. M., & Rossi-Hansberg, E. (2008) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.98.5.1978 · Cited by 2,262
Skills, Tasks and Technologies: Implications for Employment and Earnings
Acemoglu, D., & Autor, D. (2010) · doi:10.3386/w16082 · Cited by 2,180
Flagged first, then by citations
6 of the 39 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.
Research works printed but not linked: 2
- Baumol William J, 1967, American Economic Review, 57, 415
- Goldin Claudia, 2009, The Evolution of U.S. Wage Differentials, 1890
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Items 101–200 of 1,001
Why Is Productivity Slowing Down?
Goldin, I., Koutroumpis, P., Lafond, F., & Winkler, J. (2020) · Journal of Economic Literature · doi:10.1257/jel.20221543 · Cited by 98
Walkowiak, E. (2021) · Technological forecasting & social change · doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120739 · Cited by 93
Artificial intelligence and work: a critical review of recent research from the social sciences
Deranty, J.-P., & Corbin, T. (2024) · AI & SOCIETY · doi:10.1007/s00146-022-01496-x · Cited by 118
“…2020; Korinek and Stiglitz 2019), similar to what occurred in the previous wave of automation (Autor et al. 2008; Goos and Manning 2007; Autor and Dorn 2013; Michaels et al. 2014; Goos et al. 2014; Graetz and Michaels 2018; Frey 2019; Autor et al. 2015; Scarpetta 2018; Bordot and Lorentz 2021).”
A rising workfare state? Unemployment benefit conditionality in 21 OECD countries, 1980–2012
Knotz, C. (2018) · Journal of International and Comparative Social Policy · doi:10.1080/21699763.2018.1472136 · Cited by 114
Labor-Technology Substitution: Implications for Asset Pricing
Zhang, M. B. (2016) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/jofi.12766 · Cited by 113
Polarization and Rising Wage Inequality: Comparing the U.S. and Germany
Antonczyk, D., DeLeire, T., & Fitzenberger, B. (2018) · Econometrics · doi:10.3390/econometrics6020020 · Cited by 111
Are Automation and Trade Polarizing Developing Country Labor Markets, Too?
Molina, C., & Maloney, W. F. (2016) · World Bank, Washington, DC eBooks · doi:10.1596/1813-9450-7922 · Cited by 111
Krzywdzinski, M. (2017) · New Technology Work and Employment · doi:10.1111/ntwe.12100 · Cited by 110
The Impact of the Internet on Industrial Green Productivity: Evidence from China
Yu, B. (2022) · Technological Forecasting and Social Change · doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2022.121527 · Cited by 113
Air pollution, water pollution, and robots: Is technology the panacea
Song, J., Chen, Y., & Luan, F. (2022) · Journal of Environmental Management · doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.117170 · Cited by 112
Did State Responses to Automation Matter for Voters?
Gingrich, J. R. (2019) · Research & Politics · doi:10.1177/2053168019832745 · Cited by 106
Gender, Technology, and the Future of Work
Brussevich, M., Dabla‐Norris, E., Kamunge, C., Karnane, P., Khalid, S., & Kochhar, K. (2018) · IMF staff discussion note · doi:10.5089/9781484379769.006 · Cited by 117
Economic and Social Outsiders but Political Insiders: Sweden’s Populist Radical Right
Bó, E. D., Finan, F., Folke, O., Persson, T., & Rickne, J. K. (2022) · The Review of Economic Studies · doi:10.1093/restud/rdac037 · Cited by 102
Tasks, Automation, and the Rise in US Wage Inequality
Acemoğlu, D., & Restrepo, P. (2021) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w28920 · Cited by 114
Racing With or Against the Machine? Evidence on the Role of Trade in Europe
Gregory, T., Salomons, A., & Zierahn, U. (2021) · Journal of the European Economic Association · doi:10.1093/jeea/jvab040 · Cited by 343
Self-citationGuriev, S. M. (2018) · AEA Papers and Proceedings · doi:10.1257/pandp.20181123 · Cited by 101
Felten, E. W., Raj, M., & Seamans, R. (2019) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3368605 · Cited by 128
The Political Economy of PopulismPreprint
Guriev, S., & Papaioannou, E. (2020) · Social Science Research Network · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3542052 · Cited by 35
Changes in Between-Group Inequality: Computers, Occupations, and International Trade
Burstein, A., Morales, E., & Vogel, J. (2019) · American Economic Journal Macroeconomics · doi:10.1257/mac.20170291 · Cited by 100
Gender gaps across countries and skills: Demand, supply and the industry structure
Claudia Olivetti, Z., & Petrongolo, B. (2014) · Review of Economic Dynamics · doi:10.1016/j.red.2014.03.001 · Cited by 98
Automation, unemployment, and the role of labor market training
Schmidpeter, B., & Winter‐Ebmer, R. (2021) · European Economic Review · doi:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.103808 · Cited by 103
Automation and the future of the welfare state: Basic income as a response to technological change?
Dermont, C., & Weisstanner, D. (2020) · Political Research Exchange · doi:10.1080/2474736x.2020.1757387 · Cited by 97
Routine jobs, employment and technological innovation in global value chains
Marcolin, L., Squicciarini, M., & Miroudot, S. (2016) · OECD science, technology and industry working papers · doi:10.1787/5jm5dcz2d26j-en · Cited by 99
Falck, O., Heimisch, A., & Wiederhold, S. (2016) · Research Policy · doi:10.1016/j.respol.2020.104064 · Cited by 146
Rigó, M., Dragano, N., Wahrendorf, M., Siegrist, J., & Lunau, T. (2020) · International Archives of Occupational and Environmental Health · doi:10.1007/s00420-020-01593-8 · Cited by 91
Rethinking deindustrialization
Bernard, A. B., Smeets, V., & Frederic Warzynski, C. (2016) · Economic Policy · doi:10.1093/epolic/eiw016 · Cited by 98
The Rising Postgraduate Wage Premium
Lindley, J. K., & Machin, S. J. (2016) · Economica · doi:10.1111/ecca.12184 · Cited by 96
Boughen, N., Mason, C., Hodgers, L., Bratanova, A., Rudd, L., Reeson, A. F., & Hajkowicz, S. A. (2016) · CSIRO · doi:10.4225/08/58557df808f71 · Cited by 94
Technology, offshoring and the rise of non-routine jobs
Reijnders, L. S. M., & de Vries, G. J. (2018) · Journal of Development Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.08.009 · Cited by 94
The impact of technological progress on labour markets: policy challenges
Goos, M. (2018) · Oxford Review of Economic Policy · doi:10.1093/oxrep/gry002 · Cited by 99
Self-citationAutomation and labor force participation in advanced economies: Macro and micro evidence
Grigoli, F., Kóczán, Z., & Topalova, P. B. (2020) · European Economic Review · doi:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2020.103443 · Cited by 104
Rising Intragenerational Occupational Mobility in the United States, 1969 to 2011
Jarvis, B. F., & Song, X. (2017) · American Sociological Review · doi:10.1177/0003122417706391 · Cited by 88
The dynamics of disappearing routine jobs: A flows approach
Cortés, G. M., Jaimovich, N., Nekarda, C. J., & Siu, H. (2020) · Labour Economics · doi:10.1016/j.labeco.2020.101823 · Cited by 90
World Changes in Inequality: an Overview of Facts, Causes, Consequences, and Policies1
Bourguignon, F. (2018) · CESifo Economic Studies · doi:10.1093/cesifo/ifx028 · Cited by 89
Job polarization, technological change and routinization: Evidence for Portugal
Fonseca, T., Lima, F., & Pereira, S. C. (2018) · Labour Economics · doi:10.1016/j.labeco.2018.02.003 · Cited by 90
Why is labour receiving a smaller share of global income?*
Mai, C., Das, M., & Kóczán, Z. (2019) · Economic Policy · doi:10.1093/epolic/eiaa004 · Cited by 81
Matthess, M., Kunkel, S., Dachrodt, M. F., & Beier, G. (2023) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.136598 · Cited by 96
Tradability and the Labor‐Market Impact of Immigration: Theory and Evidence From the United States
Burstein, A., Hanson, G., Tian, L., & Vogel, J. (2020) · Econometrica · doi:10.3982/ecta16196 · Cited by 90
Berger, T., & Frey, C. B. (2015) · Regional Science and Urban Economics · doi:10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2015.11.003 · Cited by 89
Italian Workers at Risk During the COVID-19 EpidemicPreprint
BARBIERI, T. F., Basso, G., & Scicchitano, S. (2020) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3572065 · Cited by 89
Private Equity and Human Capital Risk
Antoni, M., Maug, E. G., & Obernberger, S. (2015) · Journal of Financial Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jfineco.2019.04.010 · Cited by 79
The governance of artificial intelligence: Harnessing opportunities and mitigating challenges
Goos, M., & Savona, M. (2024) · Research Policy · doi:10.1016/j.respol.2023.104928 · Cited by 101
Self-citationRobot Arithmetic: New Technology and Wages
Caselli, F., & Manning, A. (2019) · American Economic Review Insights · doi:10.1257/aeri.20170036 · Cited by 87
Self-citationEichhörst, W., Hinte, H., Rinne, U., & Tobsch, V. (2017) · management revue · doi:10.5771/0935-9915-2017-3-298 · Cited by 86
Gender inequalities in the new world of work
Piasna, A., & Drahokoupil, J. (2017) · Transfer European Review of Labour and Research · doi:10.1177/1024258917713839 · Cited by 91
For whom the bell tolls: The firm-level effects of automation on wage and gender inequality
Domini, G., Grazzi, M., Moschella, D., & Treibich, T. (2022) · Research Policy · doi:10.1016/j.respol.2022.104533 · Cited by 96
Digital transformation and labor upgrading
Li, W.-C., Yang, X., & Yin, X.-Q. (2024) · Pacific-Basin Finance Journal · doi:10.1016/j.pacfin.2024.102280 · Cited by 85
Private Equity, Layoffs, and Job Polarization
Olsson, M., & Tåg, J. (2017) · Journal of Labor Economics · doi:10.1086/690712 · Cited by 51
Structural change and global value chains in the EU
Stöllinger, R. (2016) · Empirica · doi:10.1007/s10663-016-9349-z · Cited by 84
Skill-biased technological change and labor market polarization in China
Wang, J., Hu, Y. Q., & Zhang, Z. (2021) · Economic Modelling · doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2021.105507 · Cited by 89
Labor Market Returns to Vocational Secondary Education
Silliman, M., & Virtanen, H. (2021) · American Economic Journal Applied Economics · doi:10.1257/app.20190782 · Cited by 100
Does education raise productivity and wages equally? The moderating role of age and gender
Kampelmann, S., Rycx, F., Saks, Y., & Tojerow, I. (2018) · IZA Journal of Labor Economics · doi:10.1186/s40172-017-0061-4 · Cited by 80
Wage Shocks and the Technological Substitution of Low‐wage Jobs
Aaronson, D. M., & Phelan, B. J. (2017) · The Economic Journal · doi:10.1111/ecoj.12529 · Cited by 81
Bertani, F., Raberto, M., & Teglio, A. (2020) · Review of Evolutionary Political Economy · doi:10.1007/s43253-020-00022-3 · Cited by 82
Technological Risk and Policy Preferences
Gallego, A., Kuo, A. G., Manzano, D., & Fernández-Albertos, J. (2021) · Comparative Political Studies · doi:10.1177/00104140211024290 · Cited by 77
Paccagnella, M. (2016) · OECD education working papers · doi:10.1787/5jm0q1n38lvc-en · Cited by 104
Kupets, O. (2015) · Journal of Comparative Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jce.2015.10.005 · Cited by 79
Europe’s evolving graduate labour markets: supply, demand, underemployment and pay
Green, F., & Henseke, G. (2021) · Journal for Labour Market Research · doi:10.1186/s12651-021-00288-y · Cited by 80
Sustainable development and human resource management: A science mapping approach
Santana, M., & Cabrales, Á. L. (2019) · Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management · doi:10.1002/csr.1765 · Cited by 82
New Frontiers: The Origins and Content of New Work, 1940–2018Preprint
Autor, D., Chin, C., Salomons, A., & Seegmiller, B. (2022) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4196333 · Cited by 72
Self-citationCatching-up in the global factory: Analysis and policy implications
Buckley, P. J., Strange, R. N., Timmer, M. P., & de Vries, G. J. (2020) · Journal of International Business Policy · doi:10.1057/s42214-020-00047-9 · Cited by 78
The March of the Techies: Job Polarization Within and Between Firms
Harrigan, J., Reshef, A., & Farid Toubal, B. (2020) · Research Policy · doi:10.1016/j.respol.2020.104008 · Cited by 73
Complex-task biased technological change and the labor market
Caines, C. C., Hoffmann, F., & Kambourov, G. (2017) · Review of Economic Dynamics · doi:10.1016/j.red.2017.01.008 · Cited by 73
Owen, E. (2017) · International Studies Quarterly · doi:10.1093/isq/sqx020 · Cited by 73
BUSEMEYER, M. R., & SAHM, A. H. J. (2022) · Journal of Social Policy · doi:10.1017/s0047279421000519 · Cited by 75
The global polarisation of remote work
Braesemann, F., Stephany, F., Teutloff, O., kässi, O., Graham, M., & Lehdonvirta, V. (2022) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0274630 · Cited by 114
Liu, Y., Shen, F., Guo, J., Hu, G., & Song, Y. (2025) · Energy Economics · doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108280 · Cited by 78
Trade, Education, and the Shrinking Middle Class
Blanchard, E. J., & Gerald Willmann, B. (2013) · Journal of International Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jinteco.2015.10.007 · Cited by 104
Fear of robots at work: the role of economic self-interest
Dekker, F., Salomons, A., & van der Waal, J. (2017) · Socio-Economic Review · doi:10.1093/ser/mwx005 · Cited by 76
Self-citationDistributional consequences of technological change: Worker-level evidence
Kurer, T., & Gallego, A. (2019) · Research & Politics · doi:10.1177/2053168018822142 · Cited by 67
Using Payroll Tax Variation to Unpack the Black Box of Firm-Level Production
Benzarti, Y., & Harju, J. (2021) · Journal of the European Economic Association · doi:10.1093/jeea/jvab010 · Cited by 74
Robots and employment: evidence from Italy
Dottori, D. (2021) · Economia Politica · doi:10.1007/s40888-021-00223-x · Cited by 77
From Knowledge Economy to Automation Anxiety: A Growth Regime in Crisis?
O’Donovan, N. (2019) · New Political Economy · doi:10.1080/13563467.2019.1590326 · Cited by 79
BROADBAND INTERNET, FIRM PERFORMANCE, AND WORKER WELFARE: EVIDENCE AND MECHANISM
Chen, S., Liu, W., & Song, H. (2019) · Economic Inquiry · doi:10.1111/ecin.12854 · Cited by 71
Automation technologies: Long-term effects for Spanish industrial firms
Camiña, E., Díaz-Chao, Á., & Torrent‐Sellens, J. (2019) · Technological Forecasting and Social Change · doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119828 · Cited by 78
Technology adoption and upskilling in the wake of Industry 4.0
Pedota, M., Grilli, L., & Piscitello, L. (2022) · Technological Forecasting and Social Change · doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2022.122085 · Cited by 77
Are they coming for us? Industrial robots and the mental health of workers
Abeliansky, A. L., Beulmann, M., & Klaus Prettner, A. (2024) · Research Policy · doi:10.1016/j.respol.2024.104956 · Cited by 71
Man vs machine: examining the three themes of service robotics in tourism and hospitality
Manthiou, A., Klaus, P., Kuppelwieser, V. G., & Reeves, W. (2020) · Electronic Markets · doi:10.1007/s12525-020-00434-3 · Cited by 70
New digital technologies and firm performance in the Italian economy
Cirillo, V., Fanti, L., Mina, A., & Ricci, A. (2022) · Industry and Innovation · doi:10.1080/13662716.2022.2055999 · Cited by 70
Gao, J., Merkley, K. J., Pacelli, J., & Schroeder, J. H. (2022) · The Accounting Review · doi:10.2308/tar-2020-0109 · Cited by 68
Artificial Intelligence, Robots and Unemployment: Evidence from OECD Countries
Bordot, F. (2022) · Journal of Innovation Economics & Management · doi:10.3917/jie.037.0117 · Cited by 86
The role of e-skills in technological diversification in European regions
Castellacci, F., Consoli, D., & Santoalha, A. (2019) · Regional Studies · doi:10.1080/00343404.2019.1681585 · Cited by 66
Lewandowski, P., Park, A. F., Hardy, W., Du, Y., & Wu, S. (2022) · The World Bank Economic Review · doi:10.1093/wber/lhac005 · Cited by 80
Lehn, C. V. (2019) · Journal of Monetary Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.01.004 · Cited by 69
Technology, employment and skills: A look into job duration
Silva, H. C., & Lima, F. (2017) · Research Policy · doi:10.1016/j.respol.2017.07.007 · Cited by 63
Transport 2040: Automation, Technology, Employment - The Future of Work
World Maritime University (2019) · doi:10.21677/itf.20190104 · Cited by 67
Globalization, robotization, and electoral outcomes: Evidence from spatial regressions for Italy
Caselli, M., Fracasso, A., & Traverso, S. (2020) · Journal of Regional Science · doi:10.1111/jors.12503 · Cited by 72
Leon, R.-D. (2023) · Technology in Society · doi:10.1016/j.techsoc.2023.102393 · Cited by 66
Education, skill training, and lifelong learning in the era of technological revolution: a review
Kim, J., & Park, C. (2020) · Asian-Pacific Economic Literature · doi:10.1111/apel.12299 · Cited by 78
Does the rise of robotic technology make people healthier?
Gunadi, C., & Ryu, H. (2021) · Health Economics · doi:10.1002/hec.4361 · Cited by 66
We Were the Robots: Automation and Voting Behavior in Western EuropePreprint
Anelli, M., Colantone, I., & Stanig, P. (2019) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3427624 · Cited by 70
Robots and Workers: Evidence from the Netherlands
Acemoğlu, D., Koster, H. R. A., & Özgen, C. (2023) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w31009 · Cited by 69
Economic Stimulus at the Expense of Routine-Task Jobs
Tüzel, Ş., & Zhang, M. B. (2017) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/jofi.13080 · Cited by 69
Automation, wage inequality and implications of a robot Tax
Zhang, P. (2019) · International Review of Economics & Finance · doi:10.1016/j.iref.2018.10.013 · Cited by 60
Preferred policy responses to technological change: Survey evidence from OECD countries
Busemeyer, M. R., Gandenberger, M., Knotz, C., & Tober, T. (2022) · Socio-Economic Review · doi:10.1093/ser/mwac015 · Cited by 64
Chen, N., Li, Z., & Tang, B. (2022) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0277280 · Cited by 68
Austerity, Economic Vulnerability, and Populism
Baccini, L., & Sattler, T. (2021) · American Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1111/ajps.12865 · Cited by 88
Unmasking inequalities of the code: Disentangling the nexus of AI and inequality
Bircan, T., & Özbilgin, M. F. (2024) · Technological Forecasting and Social Change · doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123925 · Cited by 83
The anatomy of job polarisation in the UK
Salvatori, A. (2018) · Journal for Labour Market Research · doi:10.1186/s12651-018-0242-z · Cited by 68
Predation, Protection, and Productivity: A Firm-Level Perspective
Besley, T. J., & Mueller, H. (2018) · American Economic Journal Macroeconomics · doi:10.1257/mac.20160120 · Cited by 59
Metadata
- Authors
- Goos, M., Manning, A., & Salomons, A.
- Affiliations
- KU Leuven (BE)
- London School of Economics and Political Science (GB)
- Utrecht University (NL)
- Venue
- American Economic Review
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 2014-08-01
- Volume
- 104
- Issue
- 8
- Pages
- 2509-2526
- ISSN
- 0002-8282 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W1980544129
- Semantic Scholar
- c219423d9836f1d81b08710f724f0e9b787e568f
- Cited by
- 2,111
- References
- 39
- Citations by year
- 2026: 214 · 2025: 217 · 2024: 228 · 2023: 199 · 2022: 234 · 2021: 240 · 2020: 224 · 2019: 166 · 2018: 161 · 2017: 100 · 2016: 68 · 2015: 40 · 2014: 14
- FWCI
- 183.49
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- American Economic Review (publishedVersion)
- London School of Economics and Political Science Research Online (London School of Economics and Political Science) (submittedVersion)
- London School of Economics and Political Science Theses Online (London School of Economics and Political Science) (submittedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Utrecht University Repository (Utrecht University) (submittedVersion)
- Lirias (KU Leuven) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Economic and Social Research Council (ES/H02123X/1)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Labor market dynamics and wage inequality
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Global trade and economics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economic Theory and Policy
- Keywords
- job polarization, routine-biased technological change, offshoring, Western Europe, labor market structure, skill-biased technological change
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-10-07, under version 3 of the claim definition (model deepseek-v4.1-flash, prompt extract-v3).
A second model labelled each claim on 2026-10-07 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
