The DOI matches its Crossref record; 58 of the 60 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Narrative Economics
Abstract
This address considers the epidemiology of narratives relevant to economic fluctuations. The human brain has always been highly tuned toward narratives, whether factual or not, to justify ongoing actions, even such basic actions as spending and investing. Stories motivate and connect activities to deeply felt values and needs. Narratives “go viral” and spread far, even worldwide, with economic impact. The 1920–1921 Depression, the Great Depression of the 1930s, the so-called Great Recession of 2007–2009, and the contentious political-economic situation of today are considered as the results of the popular narratives of their respective times. Though these narratives are deeply human phenomena that are difficult to study in a scientific manner, quantitative analysis may help us gain a better understanding of these epidemics in the future. (JEL D72, E32, G01, N10)
Overview
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
In the citing paper
“Social scientists and psychologists have long emphasized the role that stories play in collective action—driving the formation and dynamics of nations (Tilly, 2002), religions (Dunbar, 2022), hunter-gatherer communities (D. Smith et al., 2017; Sugiyama, 2001), organizations (Boje, 2008), cultural groups (Michalopoulos & Xue, 2021), and even financial markets (Shiller, 2017).”
From Stories in Action. (2022) · cites this paper as Shiller, 2017
Citations
Cites
Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1993) · Journal of Financial Economics · doi:10.1016/0304-405x(93)90023-5 · Cited by 25,754
Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty*
Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., & Davis, S. J. (2016) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1093/qje/qjw024 · Cited by 12,458
A Simple Model of Herd Behavior
Banerjee, A. V. (1992) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.2307/2118364 · Cited by 6,556
Loewenstein, G. F., Weber, E. U., Hsee, C. K., & Welch, N. (2001) · Psychological Bulletin · doi:10.1037//0033-2909.127.2.267 · Cited by 6,500
On the psychology of prediction.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1973) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/h0034747 · Cited by 6,202
Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets
Long, J. B. D., Shleifer, A., Summers, L. H., & WALDMANN, R. J. (1990) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/261703 · Cited by 6,202
Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations
Kydland, F., & Prescott, E. (1982) · Econometrica · doi:10.2307/1913386 · Cited by 6,093
Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. W. (1997) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1997.tb03807.x · Cited by 5,291
Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II
Hamilton, J. D. (1983) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/261140 · Cited by 3,824
An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money
Samuelson, P. A. (1958) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/258100 · Cited by 3,587
Research works printed but not linked: 17
- 10.1086/261849 · DOI
- Eichengreen Barry, 1996, The Gold Standard and the Great Depression, 1919
- Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, 1984, A History of the FDIC, 1933
- 10.1162/qjec.2005.120.1.45 · DOI
- Higgs Robert, 1997, Independent Review, 1, 561
- Jackson Matthew O, 2005, Economie Publique, 16, 69
- Kennedy David M, 2001, The American People, Depression and War, 1929
- Kermack W. O., 1927, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series A, Containing Papers of a Mathematical and Physical Character, 115, 701
- Laffer Arthur, 2004, Backgrounder, 1765, 1
- 10.1037/0033-2909.127.2.267 · DOI · Paper page
- Myrdal Gunnar, 1974, Center Magazine., 26
- Roll Richard, 1988, American Economic Review, 74, 861
- Shapiro Matthew D, 2016, National Bureau of Economic Research Reporter, 2, 11
- Shiller Robert J, 1981, American Economic Review, 71, 421
- Shiller Robert J, 1995, American Economic Review, 85, 181
- Wanniski Jude, 1978, Public Interest, 50, 3
- 10.2307/3685505 · DOI
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Items 701–800 of 1,000
KEYNES, RAMSEY AND PRAGMATISMPreprint
Gerrard, B. (2023) · doi:10.31235/osf.io/6w8g2
Mexico: the Great Depression and the Coronacrisis, 1929 and 2020
Loría, E. (2023) · Brazilian Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1590/0101-31572023-3388
Conviction Narrative Theory gains from a richer formal model
Caldwell, L. (2023) · Behavioral and Brain Sciences · doi:10.1017/s0140525x2200262x
(2023) · The MIT Press eBooks · doi:10.7551/mitpress/14496.003.0015
Media Coverage and Animal Spirits: The Interplay Between Economic Journalism and the Economy
Müller, H. (2023) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-31030-0_5
Making Sense: Narratives, Journalism and the Economy
Müller, H. (2023) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-31030-0_4
What to Cover: Topic Selection and Research
Müller, H. (2023) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-31030-0_9
Mapping the Intangible Economy
Kuenzler, A., & Rauch, G. (2023) · MPI studies on intellectual property and competition law · doi:10.1007/978-3-662-65974-8_9
Wu, Y., Wu, S., Xu, F., & Jiang, J. (2023) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4506840
Attention and the Retail Alignment PuzzlePreprint
Graves, D. (2023) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4531906
Nascimento, L. M. F. (2023) · Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations (Universidade de São Paulo) · doi:10.11606/t.96.2023.tde-02082023-095345
Exploring the network of individuals that influence the media's inflation message in South Africa
Smuts, K. (2023) · Working Paper Series · doi:10.35188/unu-wider/2023/424-3
Leveraging User Feedback for Requirements Through Trend and Narrative Analysis
Li, Z. S. (2023) · IEEE International Requirements Engineering Conference (RE) · doi:10.1109/re57278.2023.00060
Digital Methods in Economic History: The Case of Computational Text Analysis
Wehrheim, L. (2023) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-642-40458-0_118-1
Crisp, J. (2023) · Queensland University of Technology · doi:10.5204/thesis.eprints.243834
Three essays on the time series of returns
Dat, Y. (2023) · MOspace Institutional Repository (University of Missouri) · doi:10.32469/10355/96991
Forecasting the Impact of Racial Uprisings, Market versus Stakeholders' ExpectationsPreprint
Ba, B., Rivera, R. G., & Whitefield, A. (2023) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4631022
Kliber, P. (2023) · doi:10.18559/978-83-8211-192-7/9
Ekonomia i inne nauki społeczne. Studia interdyscyplinarne
Polowczyk, J. (2023) · doi:10.18559/978-83-8211-192-7
Firm-Specific Investor Sentiment and ProductivityPreprint
Zeng, Y., Guo, H., & Sun, W. (2024) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4692217
Taurino, G. (2023) · Amsterdam University Press eBooks · doi:10.1515/9789048554591-003
Market Building by Strategic Interactions: The Role of Powerful Private Actors and the StatePreprint
Kalkschmied, K., & Kleinert, J. (2024) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4728020
Immigration Narrative Sentiment and Home PricesPreprint
Mazzotta, S. (2024) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4749954
Page, L., Ruebeck, H., & Walsh, J. S. (2024) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4799878
Inflation PreferencesPreprint
Afrouzi, H., Dietrich, A., Myrseth, K. O. R., Priftis, R., & Schoenle, R. (2024) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4810594
Getting the PicturePreprint
Akerlof, R. J., Holden, R. T., & Li, H. (2024) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4821349
Inflation and TradingPreprint
Schnorpfeil, P., Weber, M., & Hackethal, A. (2024) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4833950
Wertsch, J. V. (2021) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197551462.002.0003
Wertsch, J. V. (2021) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197551462.002.0006
Wertsch, J. V. (2021) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197551462.002.0004
The spectre of terrorism and the stock market
Hanna, A. J., Turner, J. D., & Walker, C. (2024) · Applied Economics Letters · doi:10.1080/13504851.2024.2363299
Narrative Consumer SentimentPreprint
Jiang, F., Wang, Y., & Xue, B. (2024) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4859864
Immigration Narrative and Home Prices
Mazzotta, S. (2024) · Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance · doi:10.1016/j.jbef.2024.100959
Granular NarrativesPreprint
Jiang, F., Jin, F., & Ma, T. (2024) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4890511
Unravelling the Narratives of the Climate Finance AgendaPreprint
Ralite, S., & Chenet, H. (2024) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4907473
Adaptation, Learning, and Behavior
Roos, M. W. M. (2024) · Classroom companion: economics · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-51436-4_12
Do traders overweight experience from first movers?
Boyd, N. E., & Li, S. (2024) · The Journal of Financial Research · doi:10.1111/jfir.12427
Does remaining in Russia affect analysts’ sentiment?
Mamatzakis, E. C. M., Neri, L., & Russo, A. (2024) · Journal of Economic Studies · doi:10.1108/jes-02-2024-0098
Global Economic Governance between Deadlock and Informality
Geck, A., & Rüland, J. (2024) · Global Governance A Review of Multilateralism and International Organizations · doi:10.1163/19426720-03002014
Reading between the lines: Quantitative text analysis of banking crises
du Plessis, E. (2024) · Research in Economics · doi:10.1016/j.rie.2024.101000
Identifying the Drivers of Economic Uncertainty in China: A News-Based Approach
Hufnagel, L. M., & Metzler, R. (2022) · Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting & Economics · doi:10.1080/16081625.2024.2405494
Rakhmankulova, Z., Efimov, K., Kadieva, D., & Ntoumanis, I. (2024) · Cognitie, Creier, Comportament · doi:10.24193/cbb.2024.29.04
Exchange Rate NarrativesPreprint
Cormun, V., & Ristolainen, K. (2024) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5010399 · Cited by 1
A Critique of Deep Engagement, the Social Narrative of US Foreign Policy
Williams, G. P. (2024) · European Review of International Studies · doi:10.1163/21967415-11020003
Macaluso, D. S. C., & McMahon, M. F. (2024) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009471886.004
AI-Powered Direct Indexing: Exploring Thematic Universes for Enhanced Risk-Adjusted ReturnsPreprint
Schroeder, M., & Kronseder, C. (2024) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4977007
Wang, Y., & Zhao, J. (2024) · Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering · doi:10.1007/s11518-024-5620-1
Beyond the Ticker: Gendered Firm Imagery and Fund Manager Investment DecisionsPreprint
Bajo, E., Randl, O., Simion, G., & Marinelli, N. (2024) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5040923
A Method for Uncovering Tokenisation Archetypes and their Effects: Thus Spoke SwitzerlandPreprint
Plepi, A., & Schwendner, P. (2024) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-5676822/v1
BANKS AND SOCIETY: WHO SERVES WHOM?
Верников, А. В. (2024) · Glasnik za društvene nauke. · doi:10.46793/glasnikdn16.2.029v
Innovation and the Human Dimension of Investment Management
García‐Feijóo, L., & Goetzmann, W. N. (2025) · Financial Analysts Journal · doi:10.1080/0015198x.2024.2439724
Fear, Not Risk, Explains Asset PricingPreprint
Arnott, R. D. M., & McQuarrie, E. F. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5127501 · Cited by 1
Searching for Neo-FisherPreprint
Robbins, J. A. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5129370
From statistical physics to social sciences: the pitfalls of multi-disciplinarity
Bouchaud, J. (2025) · Industrial and Corporate Change · doi:10.1093/icc/dtaf002 · Cited by 1
Diagnostic Expectations and the MacroeconomyPreprint
Constantinides, G. M., & Montone, M. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5139957
Arnemann, L., Dörrenberg, P., Eble, F., Rostam‐Afschar, D., Voget, J., Buhlmann, F., & Karlsson, C. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5147248
For Whom Do "Fed Information Shocks" Matter and Why?Preprint
Barbopoulos, L. G., Adra, S., & Saunders, A. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5152059
ESG Investing Narratives and Sectoral ReturnsPreprint
Abdollahi, H. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5156129
Correlation in Mortgage DefaultsPreprint
Ma, C., & Zhao, H. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5159273
Narratives as a Persuasion Tool in Performance AppraisalsPreprint
Soldà, A., & Villeval, M. C. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5162354
Levi, E., Bayerlein, M., Grimalda, G. F., & Reggiani, T. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5167714
The Chain of Narrative Framework: Advancing Controllable Generation of Financial Themes
Liu, S., Jia, G., Gu, D., Chen, L., & Yang, Q. (2024) · IEEE ... International Conference on Data Mining workshops · doi:10.1109/icdmw65004.2024.00022
Contagious popular stories, stock market participation, and boom–bust cycles
Mignot, S., & Westerhoff, F. H. (2025) · Mathematics and Computers in Simulation · doi:10.1016/j.matcom.2025.03.014
Incertidumbre en el mercado de bonos: una propuesta para identificar sus narrativas con GDELT
Guedes, J., Torres, D., Sánchez-Escribano, P., & Boyano, J. (2025) · Documento ocasional/Documento ocasional - Banco de España · doi:10.53479/39440
Socio-Economics, Macroeconomics, and Finance
Tsoukis, C., Tournemaine, F., & Driffill, E. (2025) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-77748-6_8
Stock Market Volatility and Business NewsPreprint
Case, J., & Clements, A. E. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5207116
Anwar, M. (2022) · Queensland University of Technology · doi:10.5204/thesis.eprints.246319
Political Debate about Economic Issues: Some Insights from the Polish Parliament, 1991–2019
Fałkowski, J., Lewkowicz, J., & Nawaro, Ł. (2025) · Ekonomista · doi:10.52335/ekon/200084
Whom do we learn from?Preprint
Moorthy, A. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5190331
Bokhari, A. (2025) · Lecture notes in computer science · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-87327-0_6
Bokhari, A. (2025) · Lecture notes in computer science · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-87327-0_7
Media Inflation in the Context of Studies of the Modern Media Market
RUBTSOVA, N. V. (2024) · Theoretical and Practical Issues of Journalism · doi:10.17150/2308-6203.2024.13(3).525-541
Zacharias Psaradakis, A., Rapetti, F., Solà, M., & Yunis, P. (2025) · Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics · doi:10.1111/obes.12682
Relative Visibility and Attraction in Asset PricingPreprint
Bank, M. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5199257
Blameocracy: Causal Attribution in Political CommunicationPreprint
Bilotta, F., Binetti, A., & Manferdini, G. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5211231
A Reinterpretation of Consumer Surplus: From the Perspective of Exploitation through ConsumptionPreprint
Kim, S. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5161391
Barkhausen, D. (2025) · JCMS Journal of Common Market Studies · doi:10.1111/jcms.13730
Narrative Monetary Policy Expectation in ChinaPreprint
Zhang, Y., Wang, X., & Zhu, D. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5233191
Salikhova, E. A., & Emelin, S. M. (2025) · International Scientific and Practical Conference Smart Cities and Sustainable Development of Regions (SMARTGREENS) · doi:10.63550/iceip.2025.1.1.137
Decoding Greenwashing: Llm Insights into Corporate NarrativePreprint
Shimamura, T., Tanaka, Y., & Managi, S. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5253231
Counteracting Narratives: Evidence from An Online Experiment
Liu, M., & Zhang, S. (2025) · The Economic Journal · doi:10.1093/ej/ueaf038
Meaning at WorkPreprint
Ashraf, N., Bandiera, O., Minni, V., & Zingales, L. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5256567
Leveraging AI Tools for Novelty Detection in News Narratives
Tilly, S., Sekine, T., Guenedal, T. L., Sakout, S., & Amri, I. (2025) · The Journal of Financial Data Science · doi:10.3905/jfds.2025.1.195
Accounting for cultural spread with an economic SIR model
Gauthier, L. (2025) · Quality & Quantity · doi:10.1007/s11135-025-02234-3
Chen, Z., Pantelous, A. A., Tang, R., & Xie, Y. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5315862
Why are irrational decisions made? : Distortions, heuristics and neurofinance
Pelei, A., & Benedek, P. (2025) · Economy & finance · doi:10.33908/ef.2025.2.4
Economics: More than a Science
Mørck, R. (2025) · Critical Review · doi:10.1080/08913811.2025.2500202
Wei, X., & Zhang, Q. (2026) · Management Science · doi:10.1287/mnsc.2025.02735 · Cited by 1
Douissa, I. B., Besbes, K., Hussain, M. A., Awad, A., & Chenguel, M. B. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5348717
PEREIRA, J. U., & Terra, F. H. B. (2025) · Brazilian Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1590/0101-31572025-3719
For Whom Do "Fed Information Shocks" Matter and Why?Preprint
Barbopoulos, L. G., Adra, S., & Saunders, A. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5351737
Han, S. W., & Greve, H. R. (2025) · Organization Science · doi:10.1287/orsc.2024.19341
Khan, M. A. (2025) · Critical Review · doi:10.1080/08913811.2025.2526951
Haven't We Seen This Before? Return Predictions from 200 Years of NewsPreprint
Chen, A., Hoberg, G., & Zhang, M. B. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5380343
Model UncertaintyPreprint
Musolff, R., & Zimmermann, F. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5381354
Artificial Intelligence Narratives and Stock Market ReturnsPreprint
Bakkar, Y., Dhifaoui, Z., Jabeur, S. B., & Pillot, J. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5407132
Globalization Narratives: Common Interests or Common Values?
Libman, A. (2025) · ORDO · doi:10.1515/ordo-2025-2031
Deconstructing Democracy with Authoritarian Imprints: Evidence from Chinese Diaspora on Twitter
Liu, S., Xia, S., & Zhang, D. (2022) · Comparative Politics · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4106610
Metadata
- Authors
- Shiller, R. J.
- Affiliations
- Yale University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Shiller, Robert J.
- ORCID
- Shiller, Robert J.
- Venue
- American Economic Review
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 2017-04-01
- Volume
- 107
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 967-1004
- ISSN
- 0002-8282 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W4233731957
- Cited by
- 1,004
- References
- 60
- Citations by year
- 2026: 185 · 2025: 148 · 2024: 112 · 2023: 118 · 2022: 110 · 2021: 140 · 2020: 84 · 2019: 51 · 2018: 35 · 2017: 18
- FWCI
- 120.79
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- American Economic Review (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic theories and models
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economic Theory and Policy
- Keywords
- narrative economics, economic narratives, business cycles, Great Depression, Great Recession, behavioral economics, economic psychology, political economy
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review