The DOI matches its Crossref record; 58 of the 60 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Narrative Economics
Abstract
This address considers the epidemiology of narratives relevant to economic fluctuations. The human brain has always been highly tuned toward narratives, whether factual or not, to justify ongoing actions, even such basic actions as spending and investing. Stories motivate and connect activities to deeply felt values and needs. Narratives “go viral” and spread far, even worldwide, with economic impact. The 1920–1921 Depression, the Great Depression of the 1930s, the so-called Great Recession of 2007–2009, and the contentious political-economic situation of today are considered as the results of the popular narratives of their respective times. Though these narratives are deeply human phenomena that are difficult to study in a scientific manner, quantitative analysis may help us gain a better understanding of these epidemics in the future. (JEL D72, E32, G01, N10)
Overview
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
In the citing paper
“Social scientists and psychologists have long emphasized the role that stories play in collective action—driving the formation and dynamics of nations (Tilly, 2002), religions (Dunbar, 2022), hunter-gatherer communities (D. Smith et al., 2017; Sugiyama, 2001), organizations (Boje, 2008), cultural groups (Michalopoulos & Xue, 2021), and even financial markets (Shiller, 2017).”
From Stories in Action. (2022) · cites this paper as Shiller, 2017
Citations
Cites
Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1993) · Journal of Financial Economics · doi:10.1016/0304-405x(93)90023-5 · Cited by 25,754
Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty*
Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., & Davis, S. J. (2016) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1093/qje/qjw024 · Cited by 12,458
A Simple Model of Herd Behavior
Banerjee, A. V. (1992) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.2307/2118364 · Cited by 6,556
Loewenstein, G. F., Weber, E. U., Hsee, C. K., & Welch, N. (2001) · Psychological Bulletin · doi:10.1037//0033-2909.127.2.267 · Cited by 6,500
On the psychology of prediction.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1973) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/h0034747 · Cited by 6,202
Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets
Long, J. B. D., Shleifer, A., Summers, L. H., & WALDMANN, R. J. (1990) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/261703 · Cited by 6,202
Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations
Kydland, F., & Prescott, E. (1982) · Econometrica · doi:10.2307/1913386 · Cited by 6,093
Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. W. (1997) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1997.tb03807.x · Cited by 5,291
Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II
Hamilton, J. D. (1983) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/261140 · Cited by 3,824
An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money
Samuelson, P. A. (1958) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/258100 · Cited by 3,587
Fairness and retaliation: the economics of reciprocity
Fehr, E., & Gächter, S. (2000) · Journal of Economic Perspectives · doi:10.1257/jep.14.3.159 · Cited by 3,239
Quantitative Analysis of Culture Using Millions of Digitized Books
Michel, J.-B., Shen, Y. K., Aiden, A. P., Veres, A., Gray, M. K., The Google Books Team, Pickett, J. P., Hoiberg, D., Clancy, D., Norvig, P., et al. (2010) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1199644 · Cited by 3,235
(2009) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.99.4.i · Cited by 2,304
Herr, P. M., Kardes, F. R., & Kim, J. (1991) · Journal of Consumer Research · doi:10.1086/208570 · Cited by 2,142
Mr. Keynes and the "Classics"; A Suggested Interpretation
Hicks, J. (1937) · Econometrica · doi:10.2307/1907242 · Cited by 1,944
Narration as a human communication paradigm: The case of public moral argument
Fisher, W. R. (1984) · Communication Monographs · doi:10.1080/03637758409390180 · Cited by 1,807
Stock Prices and Social Dynamics
Shiller, R. J., Fischer, S. L., & Friedman, B. M. (1984) · Brookings Papers on Economic Activity · doi:10.2307/2534436 · Cited by 1,665
Self-citationA New Measure of Monetary Shocks: Derivation and Implications
Romer, C., & Romer, D. (2004) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/0002828042002651 · Cited by 1,616
Slovic, P., Finucane, M. L., Peters, E., & MacGregor, D. G. (2007) · European Journal of Operational Research · doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2005.04.006 · Cited by 1,537
The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds
LeRoy, S. F., & Porter, R. D. (1981) · Econometrica · doi:10.2307/1911512 · Cited by 1,406
Ito, T. A., Larsen, J. T., Smith, N. K., & Cacioppo, J. T. (1998) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.75.4.887 · Cited by 1,340
van Laer, T., de Ruyter, K., Visconti, L. M., & Wetzels, M. G. M. (2013) · Journal of Consumer Research · doi:10.1086/673383 · Cited by 1,187
Does the Stock Market Rationally Reflect Fundamental Values?
Summers, L. H. (1986) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1986.tb04519.x · Cited by 1,068
Interactions between the Multiplier Analysis and the Principle of Acceleration
Samuelson, P. A. (1939) · The Review of Economics and Statistics · doi:10.2307/1927758 · Cited by 963
Daley, D. J., & Kendall, D. G. (1964) · Nature · doi:10.1038/2041118a0 · Cited by 901
Face processing occurs outside the fusiform ‘face area’ in autism: evidence from functional MRI
Pierce, K. (2001) · Brain · doi:10.1093/brain/124.10.2059 · Cited by 898
Behavioral Economics: Past, Present, and Future
Thaler, R. H. (2016) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.106.7.1577 · Cited by 799
Self‐Referencing and Persuasion: Narrative Transportation versus Analytical Elaboration
Escalas, J. E. (2007) · Journal of Consumer Research · doi:10.1086/510216 · Cited by 731
Social Osmosis and Patterns of Crime
Sah, R. K. (1991) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/261800 · Cited by 627
The Relation of Home Investment to Unemployment
Kahn, R. F. (1931) · The Economic Journal · doi:10.2307/2223697 · Cited by 616
New Deal Policies and the Persistence of the Great Depression: A General Equilibrium Analysis
Cole, H. L., & Ohanian, L. E. (2004) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/421169 · Cited by 601
Survey evidence on diffusion of interest and information among investors
Shiller, R. J., & Pound, J. (1989) · Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization · doi:10.1016/0167-2681(89)90076-0 · Cited by 599
Self-citationFrom Poverty to Perversity: Ideas, Markets, and Institutions over 200 Years of Welfare Debate
Somers, M. R., & Block, F. (2005) · American Sociological Review · doi:10.1177/000312240507000204 · Cited by 592
Daley, D. J., & KENDALL, D. G. (1965) · IMA Journal of Applied Mathematics · doi:10.1093/imamat/1.1.42 · Cited by 566
The Missing Motivation in Macroeconomics
Akerlof, G. A. (2007) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.97.1.5 · Cited by 505
Predicting Success of Theatrical Movies: An Empirical Study
Litman, B. R. (1983) · The Journal of Popular Culture · doi:10.1111/j.0022-3840.1983.1604_159.x · Cited by 400
The Gold Standard and the Great Depression
Eichengreen, B. J., & Temin, P. (1997) · Contemporary European History · doi:10.1017/s0960777300002010 · Cited by 381
Rescorla, R. A. (2004) · Learning & Memory · doi:10.1101/lm.77504 · Cited by 380
Redish, A. D., Jensen, S., Johnson, A., & Kurth-Nelson, Z. (2007) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/0033-295x.114.3.784 · Cited by 346
Groupthink: Collective Delusions in Organizations and Markets
Bénabou, R. (2012) · The Review of Economic Studies · doi:10.1093/restud/rds030 · Cited by 344
The Political Economy of Hatred
Glaeser, E. L. (2005) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1162/0033553053327434 · Cited by 325
Bubbles, Human Judgment, and Expert Opinion
Shiller, R. J. (2002) · Financial Analysts Journal · doi:10.2469/faj.v58.n3.2535 · Cited by 270
Self-citationSIR rumor spreading model in the new media age
Zhao, L., Cui, H., Qiu, X., Wang, X., & Wang, J. (2013) · Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications · doi:10.1016/j.physa.2012.09.030 · Cited by 263
Christian Gaser, B. (2003) · Cerebral Cortex · doi:10.1093/cercor/bhg107 · Cited by 245
Motivated Bayesians: Feeling Moral While Acting Egoistically
Gino, F., Norton, M. I., & Weber, R. A. (2016) · Journal of Economic Perspectives · doi:10.1257/jep.30.3.189 · Cited by 208
Dysfunctional beliefs discriminate personality disorders
Beck, A. T., Butler, A. C., Brown, G. K., Dahlsgaard, K. K., Newman, C. F., & Beck, J. S. (2001) · Behaviour Research and Therapy · doi:10.1016/s0005-7967(00)00099-1 · Cited by 194
Effects of background music on the remembering of filmed events
Boltz, M. G., Schulkind, M. D., & Kantra, S. (1991) · Memory & Cognition · doi:10.3758/bf03197154 · Cited by 179
Young, K., & Saver, J. L. (2001) · SubStance · doi:10.1353/sub.2001.0020 · Cited by 177
Losh, M. C., & Gordon, P. C. (2014) · Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders · doi:10.1007/s10803-014-2158-y · Cited by 130
Slater, M. D., Buller, D. B., Waters, E., Archibeque, M., & Leblanc, M. (2003) · Journal of Nutrition Education and Behavior · doi:10.1016/s1499-4046(06)60056-0 · Cited by 124
The Use of Narrative Structures in Television News
Machill, M., Köhler, S., & Waldhauser, M. (2007) · European Journal of Communication · doi:10.1177/0267323107076769 · Cited by 86
Creating Persuasive Messages Advocating Organ Donation
Weber, K., Martin, M. M., Members of, C. O. M. M., & Corrigan, M. W. (2005) · Communication Quarterly · doi:10.1080/01463370500270413 · Cited by 77
Dreaming as a story-telling instinct
Pace-Schott, E. F. (2013) · Frontiers in Psychology · doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2013.00159 · Cited by 69
Incomprehensibility in the Narratives of Individuals With a Diagnosis of Schizophrenia
Saavedra, J., Cubero, M., & Crawford, P. (2009) · Qualitative Health Research · doi:10.1177/1049732309351110 · Cited by 57
“Adam Smith did Humanomics: So Should We”
McCLOSKEY, D. N. (2016) · Eastern Economic Journal · doi:10.1057/s41302-016-0007-8 · Cited by 52
Bruner, J. S. (1998) · The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science · doi:10.1177/0002716298560001002 · Cited by 40
What’s Wrong with the Laffer Curve?
Mirowski, P. (1982) · Journal of Economic Issues · doi:10.1080/00213624.1982.11504034 · Cited by 38
The Gold Standard of Currency in the Light of Recent Theory
Clark, J. B. (1895) · Political Science Quarterly · doi:10.2307/2139952 · Cited by 26
Flagged first, then by citations
2 of the 60 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.
Research works printed but not linked: 17
- 10.1086/261849 · DOI
- Eichengreen Barry, 1996, The Gold Standard and the Great Depression, 1919
- Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, 1984, A History of the FDIC, 1933
- 10.1162/qjec.2005.120.1.45 · DOI
- Higgs Robert, 1997, Independent Review, 1, 561
- Jackson Matthew O, 2005, Economie Publique, 16, 69
- Kennedy David M, 2001, The American People, Depression and War, 1929
- Kermack W. O., 1927, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series A, Containing Papers of a Mathematical and Physical Character, 115, 701
- Laffer Arthur, 2004, Backgrounder, 1765, 1
- 10.1037/0033-2909.127.2.267 · DOI · Paper page
- Myrdal Gunnar, 1974, Center Magazine., 26
- Roll Richard, 1988, American Economic Review, 74, 861
- Shapiro Matthew D, 2016, National Bureau of Economic Research Reporter, 2, 11
- Shiller Robert J, 1981, American Economic Review, 71, 421
- Shiller Robert J, 1995, American Economic Review, 85, 181
- Wanniski Jude, 1978, Public Interest, 50, 3
- 10.2307/3685505 · DOI
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Firm‐Level Climate Change Exposure
Sautner, Z., van Lent, L., Vilkov, G., & ZHANG, R. (2023) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/jofi.13219 · Cited by 1,425
Presidential Address: Social Transmission Bias in Economics and Finance
Hirshleifer, D. A. (2020) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/jofi.12906 · Cited by 291
Textual Analysis in Accounting: What's Next?*
Bochkay, K., Brown, S. V., Leone, A. J., & Tucker, J. W. (2022) · Contemporary Accounting Research · doi:10.1111/1911-3846.12825 · Cited by 302
Social Transmission Bias and Investor Behavior
Han, B., Hirshleifer, D. A., & Waldén, J. (2018) · Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis · doi:10.1017/s0022109021000077 · Cited by 256
Behavioral Economics of Accounting: A Review of Archival Research on Individual Decision Makers
Hanlon, M., Yeung, K., & Zuo, L. (2021) · Contemporary Accounting Research · doi:10.1111/1911-3846.12739 · Cited by 270
Metadata
- Authors
- Shiller, R. J.
- Affiliations
- Yale University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Shiller, Robert J.
- ORCID
- Shiller, Robert J.
- Venue
- American Economic Review
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 2017-04-01
- Volume
- 107
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 967-1004
- ISSN
- 0002-8282 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W4233731957
- Cited by
- 1,004
- References
- 60
- Citations by year
- 2026: 185 · 2025: 148 · 2024: 112 · 2023: 118 · 2022: 110 · 2021: 140 · 2020: 84 · 2019: 51 · 2018: 35 · 2017: 18
- FWCI
- 120.79
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- American Economic Review (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic theories and models
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economic Theory and Policy
- Keywords
- narrative economics, economic narratives, business cycles, Great Depression, Great Recession, behavioral economics, economic psychology, political economy
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review