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A Theory of Political Transitions
Open accessAbstract
We develop a theory of political transitions inspired by the experiences of Western Europe and Latin America. Nondemocratic societies are controlled by a rich elite. The initially disenfranchised poor can contest power by threatening revolution, especially when the opportunity cost is low, for example, during recessions. The threat of revolution may force the elite to democratize. Democracy may not consolidate because it is redistributive, and so gives the elite an incentive to mount a coup. Highly unequal societies are less likely to consolidate democracy, and may end up oscillating between regimes and suffer substantial fiscal volatility. (JEL D72, D74, O15, P16)
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Cites
A Rational Theory of the Size of Government
Meltzer, A. H., & Richard, S. F. (1981) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/261013 · Cited by 5,485
Economic Crisis and Political Regime Change: An Event History Analysis
Gasiorowski, M. J. (1995) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.2307/2082515 · Cited by 538
Cited by
The economic costs of conflict: a case study of the Basque Country
Abadie, A., & Gardeazabal, J. (2003) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/000282803321455188 · Cited by 4,517
The Politics of Authoritarian Rule
Svolik, M. W. (2012) · doi:10.1017/cbo9781139176040 · Cited by 2,611
Blattman, C., & Miguel, E. (2010) · Journal of Economic Literature · doi:10.1257/jel.48.1.3 · Cited by 1,617
Why Do Some Civil Wars Last So Much Longer than Others?
Fearon, J. D. (2004) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/0022343304043770 · Cited by 1,306
Persistence of power, Elites, and institutions
Acemoglu, D., & Robinson, J. A. (2008) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.98.1.267 · Cited by 1,268
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Metadata
- Authors
- Acemoglu, D., & Robinson, J. A.
- Venue
- American Economic Review
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 2001-09-01
- Volume
- 91
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 938-963
- ISSN
- 0002-8282 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3123985485
- Cited by
- 1,554
- References
- 2
- FWCI
- 96.57
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
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