Economic Crisis and Political Regime Change: An Event History Analysis

Gasiorowski, Mark J.

doi:10.2307/2082515

Cited by 538Political Conflict and GovernancePolitical Theory and DemocracyCorruption and Economic Development

Economic Crisis and Political Regime Change: An Event History Analysis

Gasiorowski, Mark J.·1995·American Political Science Review

DOI 10.2307/2082515

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Abstract

I examine the effect of economic crises on domestic political regime change. Using a statistical technique known as event history analysis and a new data set that identifies all instances of regime change in the 97 largest Third World countries, I develop multivariate models of democratic breakdown and democratic transition. My main findings are that inflationary crises inhibited democratization from the 1950s through the early 1970s but may have facilitated it in the late 1980s and that recessionary crises facilitated democratic breakdown but had no effect on democratic transition throughout this period. The inflation findings—though not the recession findings—support the arguments of Karen Remmer and Samuel Huntington that the processes affecting democratization were very different in the 1980s than in earlier eras. A number of other explanatory variables emerge as significant determinants of regime change, providing support for several other contentions that have appeared in the literature.

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Economic crisis is strongly associated with democratic breakdown.
“Because of the strong association between economic crisis and democratic breakdown, we also include change in GDP per capita as well (Gasiorowski 1995).”
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Authoritarianism and the Elite Origins of Democracy
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“Conversely, economic slowdowns have long been pointed to as undermining both democratic and authoritarian political regimes (e.g., Gasiorowski 1995 ; Haggard and Kaufman 1995 ).”
Background
The Loyalty-Competence Trade-Off in Dictatorships and Outside Options for Subordinates
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The Art of the Possible: Power Sharing and Post—Civil War Democracy
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Regime legitimation, elite cohesion and the durability of autocratic regime types
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“This is largely true for both democracies and autocracies (Gasiorowski, 1995; Svolik, 2013).”
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Svolik, M. W. (2015) · British Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1017/s0007123413000550 · Cited by 265 · see citing works
Democratization During the Third Wave
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“Nevertheless, a number of studies have identified economic crisis as a major source of democratic failure (Burke & Leigh 2010, Gasiorowski 1995, Przeworski et al. 2000, Svolik 2008).”
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The structural context of recent transitions to democracy
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Democracy and Macroeconomic Performance in Underdeveloped Countries
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Self-citation
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“Because of the strong association between economic crisis and democratic breakdown, we also include change in GDP per capita as well (Gasiorowski 1995).”
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Economic Sanctions and Political Repression: Assessing the Impact of Coercive Diplomacy on Political Freedoms
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“Most existing studies of the effect of economic downturns on democratization have examined this relationship qualitatively (Bermeo, 2000; Geddes, 1999; Haggard & Kaufman, 1995), while those that have studied it quantitatively have relied exclusively on objective economic indicators with mixed results (Gasiorowski, 199…”
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Squeaky Wheels and Troop Loyalty
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“This finding is consistent with several past studies (Londregan and Poole 1990; Powell 2012; Collier and Hoeffler 2007; Gasiorowski 1995; Przeworski et al. 1996), suggesting that development can deter coup activity.13 Likewise, anocracies appear to have more tenuous civil–military relations when…”
Result
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“Low income also makes coups more likely (Londregan and Poole 1990), and recessionary crises tend to undermine democratic regimes (Gasiorowski 1995).”
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“The trigger or immediate cause of these transitions may be an economic or political crisis (Gasiorowski, 1995; Haggard & Kaufman, 1995, 1997), but empirically all countries that have undergone a democratic transition have witnessed opposition mobilization (Swaminathan, 1999, p. 188).”
Background
DEMOCRATIC AID AND THE DEMOCRATIZATION OF RECIPIENTS
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“A number of studies (see, e.g., Acemoglu et al., 2008; Gasiorowski, 1995; Haggard and Kaufman, 1995) have emphasized the role of economic crises as events that destabilize both democratic and nondemocratic regimes and lead to regime transitions with an ambiguous overall effect on democracy.”
Liberal and Illiberal Democracy in Latin America
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“This was apparently truer for the Third Wave transitions than for prior periods: Gasiorowski (1995) finds a strong effect for economic crisis in spurring democratic transition after the early 1970s.”
Background
Clubs of autocrats: Regional organizations and authoritarian survival
Debre, M. J. (2021) · The Review of International Organizations · doi:10.1007/s11558-021-09428-y · Cited by 84 · see citing works
“While modernization theory argues that economic wealth can induce democratic regime transitions (Gasiorowski, 1995; Lipset, 1959), its critics posit that economic growth rather stabilizes autocratic systems (Huntington, 2006; Moore, 1966; O’Donnell, 1973) or that the relationship is dynamic and…”
Background
The Contradiction of Modernization: A Conditional Model of Endogenous Democratization
Kennedy, R. (2010) · The Journal of Politics · doi:10.1017/s0022381610000162 · Cited by 83 · see citing works
Democracy, Inequality, and Inflation
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Regressive Socioeconomic Distribution and Democratic Survival
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“…risk of breakdown.22 Control Variables Our models include a set of control variables that have been previously associated with democratic breakdown (Gasiorowski 1995; Power and Gasiorowski 1997; Przeworski and Limongi 1997; Gasiorowski and Power 1998; Przeworski et al. 2000; Bernhard, Nordstrom,…”
BackgroundMethod
Hard times and regime failure: autocratic responses to economic downturns
Tanneberg, D., Stefes, C. H., & Merkel, W. (2013) · Contemporary Politics · doi:10.1080/13569775.2013.773206 · Cited by 78 · see citing works
“…legitimacy does not matter at all for the survival of autocratic regimes (Przeworski 1992, p. 107), more research into the ‘legitimacy foundations’ of autocratic regimes is necessary.6 Further research also appears useful when comparing our results with the empirical findings of Gasiorowski (1995).”
BackgroundResult
The Diverse Effects of Diversity on Democracy
Gerring, J., Hoffman, M. T., & Zarecki, D. (2016) · British Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1017/s000712341600003x · Cited by 79 · see citing works
Reading, Writing, and Regime Type: Democracy' Impact on Primary School Enrollment
Brown, D. S. (1999) · Political Research Quarterly · doi:10.1177/106591299905200401 · Cited by 76 · see citing works
“Previous empirical findings, however, compel us to consider the possibility that democracy and its consequences are conditional on a specific set of circumstances or conditions (Remmer 1990; Huntington 1991; Gasiorowski 1995). For example, Gasiorowski (1995) finds the determinants of regime change interact with time p…”
Background
Major Power Intervention in International Crises, 1918-1988
Huth, P. K. (1998) · Journal of Conflict Resolution · doi:10.1177/0022002798042006004 · Cited by 75 · see citing works
Do Output Contractions Trigger Democratic Change?Preprint
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Do Output Contractions Trigger Democratic Change?
Burke, P. J., & Leigh, A. (2010) · American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics · doi:10.1257/mac.2.4.124 · Cited by 176 · see citing works
Varieties of contemporary democratic breakdown and regression: A comparative analysis
Tomini, L., & Wagemann, C. (2017) · European Journal of Political Research · doi:10.1111/1475-6765.12244 · Cited by 70 · see citing works
“Several scholars in this field converge on the importance of macroeconomic performance (Gasiorowski 1995; Berg-Schlosser & Mitchell 2000, 2002; Møller et al. 2015) for the likelihood of democratic regression and breakdown, while other studies explicitly emphasise its links with unequal wealth…”
Background
The Global Economic Crisis and the Politics of Non-Transitions
Pepinsky, T. B. (2012) · Government and Opposition · doi:10.1111/j.1477-7053.2011.01361.x · Cited by 69 · see citing works
What Causes Democratization?
Geddes, B. (2009) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199566020.003.0014 · Cited by 69 · see citing works
A dynamic theory of the transition to democracy
Zak, P. J., & Feng, Y. (2003) · Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization · doi:10.1016/s0167-2681(03)00018-0 · Cited by 69 · see citing works
Terrorism and the Fate of Dictators
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Un-Therapeutic Communities: A Cross-National Analysis of Post-Disaster Political Unrest
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Aggregation Among Binary, Count, and Duration Models: Estimating the Same Quantities from Different Levels of Data
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“Suppose we wish to explain the occurrence of some type of event.”
BackgroundMethod
Are IMF lending programs good or bad for democracy?
Nelson, S. C., & Wallace, G. P. R. (2016) · The Review of International Organizations · doi:10.1007/s11558-016-9250-3 · Cited by 62 · see citing works
“…program 12 We chose not to use dichotomous indicators of the presence or absence of democracy (e.g., Alvarez, Cheibub, Limongi, and Przeworski 1996; Gasiorowski 1995) because our approach focuses on how IMF program participation is related to incremental changes in countries’ levels of democracy,…”
BackgroundMethodInfluential
The Joint Democracy-Dyadic Conflict Nexus: A Simultaneous Equations Model
Reuveny, R., & Li, Q. (2003) · International Studies Quarterly · doi:10.1111/1468-2478.4703002 · Cited by 60 · see citing works
“In addition, the effects of inflation and economic development on democracy may change over time (Gasiorowski, 1995; Li and Reuveny, 2003).”
BackgroundResultInfluential
How to Sell a Coup: Elections as Coup Legitimation
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Popular Dictatorships
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Political Liabilities
Crespo-Tenorio, A., Jensen, N. M., & Rosas, G. (2014) · Comparative Political Studies · doi:10.1177/0010414013488559 · Cited by 52 · see citing works
“For example, Haggard and Kaufman (1995) explore the conditions under which economic crises affect authoritarian regimes and facilitate economic and political reforms.”
Background
No way out: travel restrictions and authoritarian regimes
Alemán, J. A., & Woods, D. (2014) · Migration and Development · doi:10.1080/21632324.2014.935089 · Cited by 57 · see citing works
“Unusually poor (negative) or unusually positive economic growth may destabilize autocracies by setting in motion a process of political liberalization (Gasiorowski, 1995; Haggard & Kaufman, 1995; Przeworski, Alvarez, Cheibub, & Limongi, 2000, p. 111).”
Background

Authors: Gasiorowski, M. J.
Affiliations: Louisiana State University (US)
Corresponding author: Gasiorowski, Mark J.
Venue: American Political Science Review
Publisher: Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Published: 1995-12
Volume: 89
Issue: 4
Pages: 882-897
ISSN: 0003-0554 (ISSN-L)
1537-5943
DOI: 10.2307/2082515
OpenAlex: W2139649522
Cited by: 538
References: 98
Citations by year: 2026: 9 · 2025: 20 · 2024: 11 · 2023: 30 · 2022: 26 · 2021: 23 · 2020: 25 · 2019: 16 · 2018: 31 · 2017: 22 · 2016: 30 · 2015: 21 · 2014: 18 · 2013: 33 · 2012: 22
FWCI: 20.52
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: www.cambridge.org/core/terms (unspecified, 6485 d)
Locations: American Political Science Review (publishedVersion)
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Topics: Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Political Theory and Democracy
Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Corruption and Economic Development
Keywords: economic crisis, regime change, democratization, democratic breakdown, democratic transition, inflation, economic recession, Third World countries, Huntington

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Economic Crisis and Political Regime Change: An Event History Analysis

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