The DOI matches its Crossref record; 183 of the 183 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Why Does China Allow Freer Social Media? Protests versus Surveillance and Propaganda
Open accessAbstract
In this paper, we document basic facts regarding public debates about controversial political issues on Chinese social media. Our documentation is based on a dataset of 13.2 billion blog posts published on Sina Weibo—the most prominent Chinese microblogging platform—during the 2009–2013 period. Our primary finding is that a shockingly large number of posts on highly sensitive topics were published and circulated on social media. For instance, we find millions of posts discussing protests, and these posts are informative in predicting the occurrence of specific events. We find an even larger number of posts with explicit corruption allegations, and that these posts predict future corruption charges of specific individuals. Our findings challenge a popular view that an authoritarian regime would relentlessly censor or even ban social media. Instead, the interaction of an authoritarian government with social media seems more complex.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The check wasn’t confident either way, so it gives no verdict — never disputed.
In the citing paper
“This approach overcomes the potential problem in fixed-effects models with (misspecified) temporal lag structures arising from the assumption that the independent variables are serially uncorrelated.”
From Authoritarian collaboration and repression in the digital age: balancing foreign direct investment and control in internet infrastructure (2026) · cites this paper as [87]
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
Part of this paper’s reference list could not be split into single entries.
Text categorization with Support Vector Machines: Learning with many relevant features
Joachims, T. (1998) · Lecture notes in computer science · doi:10.1007/bfb0026683 · Cited by 8,271
Machine learning in automated text categorization
Sebastiani, F. (2002) · ACM Computing Surveys · doi:10.1145/505282.505283 · Cited by 7,927
Probabilistic Outputs for Support vector Machines and Comparisons to Regularized Likelihood Methods
Platt, J. C. (1999) · Cited by 4,834
How Censorship in China Allows Government Criticism but Silences Collective Expression
KING, G., PAN, J., & ROBERTS, M. E. (2013) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s0003055413000014 · Cited by 2,415 · cited 2×
“[20] King, Gary, Jennifer Pan, and Margaret E Roberts.”
InfluentialThe net delusion: the dark side of Internet freedom
Murphy, D. M. (2011) · Choice Reviews Online · doi:10.5860/choice.48-7161 · Cited by 1,907
Making Large-Scale Support Vector Machine Learning Practical
Joachims, T. (1998) · The MIT Press eBooks · doi:10.7551/mitpress/1130.003.0015 · Cited by 1,639
Inductive learning algorithms and representations for text categorization
Dumais, S., Platt, J. C., Heckerman, D. E., & Sahami, M. (1998) · ACM International Conference on Information and Knowledge Management (CIKM) · doi:10.1145/288627.288651 · Cited by 1,481
The political power of social media: Technology, the public sphere, and political change
Shirky, C. (2011) · Foreign Affairs · Cited by 1,193
KING, G., PAN, J., & ROBERTS, M. E. (2017) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s0003055417000144 · Cited by 1,028
Realizing the potential of digital development: The case of agricultural advice
Fabregas, R., Kremer, M. R., & Schilbach, F. (2019) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aay3038 · Cited by 626
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 2
- economist.com/news/special-report/21574628- internet-was-expected-help-democratise-china- instead-it-has-enabled. Freedom House. 2012. "Freedom on the Net: China." https://freedomhouse.org/report/ freedom-net/2012/china. Freedom House. 2015. "2015 Freedom of the Press Data." https://freedomhouse.org/ report/freedom-world/freedom-world-2015#.
- Chandan Kumar Jha, Bibhudutta Panda, Santosh Kumar Sahu. 2022. Institutions and Conflict. SSRN Electronic Journal 76. . [Crossref] · DOI
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Items 301–351 of 351
(2023) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197743577.002.0004
Gohdes, A. (2023) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197743577.003.0003
Gohdes, A. (2023) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197743577.003.0008
Gainous, J., Han, R., MacDonald, A. W., & Wagner, K. M. (2023) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197680384.005.0003
Internet accessibility and targeted violence
Gohdes, A. (2023) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197743577.003.0006
(2023) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197743577.002.0008
Divergence of Anti-pandemic Policies: Origin and Development
Sheng, L. (2024) · Sustainable development goals series · doi:10.1007/978-981-99-9134-1_2
Liu, Z. (2024) · Lecture Notes in Education Psychology and Public Media · doi:10.54254/2753-7048/40/20240679
Social (Media) Learning: Experimental Evidence from Indian FarmersPreprint
Sharma, V. (2024) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4733904
What can comparative authoritarianism tell us about China under Xi Jinping (and vice versa)?
Tung, H. H., & Wu, W. (2024) · ANU Press eBooks · doi:10.22459/pscc.2024.03
Transparency and Authoritarian Rule of Law: Mixed Effects of Open Government Information in ChinaPreprint
Li, H. (2024) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4790273
Sense or Sensibility? Netizens’ Choice of Social Media Comments in an Authoritarian Regime
Wong, S. H., & Liang, J. (2024) · International Journal of Public Opinion Research · doi:10.1093/ijpor/edae053 · Cited by 1
Kolo, C. (2024) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-658-39909-2_39
A model of participatory persuasion
Deng, L.-C., & Sun, Y. (2026) · Games Econ. Behav. · doi:10.1016/j.geb.2026.05.006
People Have Sharp Eyes: Consequences of Participatory Digital SurveillancePreprint
Zu, Z. (2024) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5007594
Government provided credit ratings and foreign sales: Evidence from China
Yu, W. X., Pan, J., Fan, R., & Yu, M. (2024) · The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance · doi:10.1016/j.qref.2024.101958
Tagged: The Role of Social Media in Influencing Environmental Governance in China and India
Srivastava, D. (2024) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-981-97-9160-6_10
Yuan, X. (2025) · Advances in Social Science, Education and Humanities Research/Advances in social science, education and humanities research · doi:10.2991/978-2-38476-384-9_93
Meng, M., Zhu, K., & Wang, J. (2025) · Transactions in Urban Data Science and Technology · doi:10.1177/27541231251338418
Conflict, information and regime-change
Bosco, D., Colombo, L. V. A., & Femminis, G. (2025) · European Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102681
Liang, S.-Y., Shao, H.-L., & Yu, Y. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5371608
Entrepreneurs’ Struggle (II): Regaining Support in the Court of Public Opinion
Hu, W. Z. (2025) · Politics and Development of Contemporary China. · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-94146-7_5
مواقع التواصل الاجتماعي كساحة للصراعات المجتمعية في ليبيا: الفيس بوك نموذجا
فرحات, م. ف. ع. (2021) · Tobruk University Journal of Social and Human Sciences · doi:10.64516/ekbqvj76
Conceptualizing the Impact of ICT On the Stability of China’s Authoritarian RegimePreprint
Švec, J. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5474247
Contemporary Chinese Nationalism and Its Influence on China’s Foreign Policy Choices
Xu, W. (2025) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-981-95-0768-9_2
Xu, W. (2025) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-981-95-0768-9_1
Zhou, S., Yang, X., & Zhang, Z. (2025) · SAGE Open · doi:10.1177/21582440251378037
Who Represses? Career Incentives and the Geography of Repression in China
Carter, E., Lee, J., & Shih, V. C. (2025) · Journal of Politics · doi:10.1086/739056
Akkaş, C. (2025) · Journal of Arab & Muslim Media Research · doi:10.1386/jammr_00114_1
Shackelford, S. J., Douzet, F., & Ankersen, C. (2025) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009574105.007
Political Control in an Authoritarian Regime
Libman, A. (2025) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-032-01268-5_2
The Domestication of Cybersecurity in Authoritarian Regimes
Liu, J. (2025) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009574105.014
Revolutionary Sparks: Exploring the Resource Spillover Effect of Street Protests on Entrepreneurship
Xu, J. L., Wang, M. S., Hiatt, S. R., & Park, H. D. (2025) · Organization Science · doi:10.1287/orsc.2024.18885 · Cited by 1
Shades of Neutrality: Detecting Media Slant in a Political Monopoly Using Quotation Accuracy
Shen, L. (2026) · ACM Transactions on Intelligent Systems and Technology · doi:10.1145/3787455
Limitations of State Surveillance
Cai, Y., & Huang, X. (2026) · Asian Survey · doi:10.1525/as.2026.2859621
Online Social Media and Crisis Communication in China: A Review and Critique
Cheng, Y., & Li, J. (2026) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-981-10-7035-8_5-2
The role of social influence in shaping consumer preferences for plant-based meat
Yuan, R. (2026) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2026.148154
Fang, L., & Meng, T. (2026) · Political Studies Review · doi:10.1177/14789299261435673
Anatomy of the Suburban Metropolis : Labor Earnings, Large Scale Commuting, and Social Discontent
Delemotte, T. (2022) · theses.fr (ABES) · doi:10.70675/f1575380z9444z48f6zb3c6z6b14b26b5712
Gauthier, G. (2023) · theses.fr (ABES) · doi:10.70675/950f4696z6651z4992z895az1f9ded1c545b
Analyse économique des médias : aspects positifs et normatifs
Hu, J. (2023) · theses.fr (ABES) · doi:10.70675/c8df577cz48ebz40d1z9296z7190e401bc11
Winning hearts after tying hands: The political impact of land titling reform in China
Hu, Z.-A., Nie, Z., & Zhao, J. (2026) · Journal of Development Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2026.103800
From Digital Credit to Street Protest: Evidence from China’s P2P Lending BustPreprint
Chen, X., & Huang, B. (2026) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.6553875
Mass mobilization and political change: Evidence from Hong Kong
Zhang, S. (2026) · Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization · doi:10.1016/j.jebo.2026.107583
Hashtag activism and the sousveillance of China’s Social Credit System
Liu, X. (2026) · China Information · doi:10.1177/0920203x261456486
Loose bricks in the wall: Underground press and political opposition in non-democracies
Tcaci, O. (2026) · Public Choice · doi:10.1007/s11127-026-01401-w
Strategic Censorship? Public Opinion, Authoritarian Politics, and the International Trade Regime
Chung, S. (2026) · International Studies Quarterly · doi:10.1093/isq/sqag038
Does digital surveillance boost citizen compliance? Evidence from China
Chen, D., & Zhan, J. V. (2026) · Political Psychology · doi:10.1111/pops.70170
State surveillance and collective dissent
Nandong, G. (2026) · American Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1111/ajps.70057
Huang, Y., Meng, J., & Weng, X. (2026) · Management Science · doi:10.1287/mnsc.2024.07339
Deng, W., Mao, Z., & Yang, Y. (2026) · Frontiers in Public Health · doi:10.3389/fpubh.2026.1943400
Metadata
- Authors
- Qin, B., Strömberg, D., & Wu, Y.
- Affiliations
- University of Hong Kong (HK)
- Stockholm University (SE)
- University of Southern California (US)
- Venue
- Journal of Economic Perspectives
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 2017-02-01
- Volume
- 31
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 117-140
- ISSN
- 0895-3309 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2581925873
- Cited by
- 353
- References
- 179
- Citations by year
- 2026: 27 · 2025: 36 · 2024: 50 · 2023: 60 · 2022: 42 · 2021: 49 · 2020: 34 · 2019: 29 · 2018: 17 · 2017: 7
- FWCI
- 55.17
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- The Journal of Economic Perspectives (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- The HKU Scholars Hub (University of Hong Kong) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Communication › Social Media and Politics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Media Influence and Politics
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › China's Socioeconomic Reforms and Governance
- Keywords
- social media regulation, authoritarianism, censorship, Weibo, microblogging, protest, political surveillance, propaganda, corruption allegations, online political discussion
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review