Deconstructing the Pioneer's Advantage: Examining Vintage Effects and Consumer Valuations of Quality and Variety
Abstract
Several studies have demonstrated an order-of-entry effect on market share, suggesting that pioneers outperform later entrants. However, other research has pointed out the limitations of these studies and found evidence that many pioneers fail or have low market share. Given this background, the purpose of this research is to understand the conditions under which pioneers are more likely and also less likely to have an advantage. We propose a game-theoretic model that includes important sources of pioneer advantages as well as disadvantages. Specifically, we incorporate a pioneer advantage due to preemption in markets with heterogeneous tastes. In addition, we incorporate a potential pioneer disadvantage due to technology vintage effects, where later entrants utilizing improved technology can have lower costs and higher quality. The model allows us to evaluate the extent of vintage effects necessary to overcome a pioneer's advantage. Key relationships are found between the magnitude of the pioneer advantage or disadvantage and consumer valuations of product attributes (e.g., variety and quality). We empirically validate the model with vintage effect data in 36 product categories, and measures of consumer valuations of product variety and quality for 12 of these 36 categories. The results show that pioneers do better in product categories where variety is more important and worse in categories where product quality is more important. Pioneers in categories with high vintage ef…
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From Smart Timing for Smart Products? Complementor Multihoming in Nascent Platform Markets (2026) · cites this paper as Bohlmann et al. 2002
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“’ Bohlmann, Golder, and Debanjan (2002, 1177) said that ‘ technology improves over time … As technology advances, later entrants can utilize a more recent and e ffi cient vintage of technology than an earlier entrant who has committed to older technology … vintage e ff ects will bene fi t later…”
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“This finding is aligned with the research perspective that emphasizes the environmental impact on new product success (e.g. Bohlmann et al., 2002; Min et al., 2006; Robinson et al., 1992), which suggests that a mere pioneering (or following) does not always guarantee sustainable advantages.”
ResultEarly entrants attract better customer evaluations: evidence from the digital camera industry
Kirjavainen, J., Mäkinen, S., & Dedehayir, O. (2020) · doi:10.1108/ejim-03-2020-0086 · Cited by 4
Early entry, capabilities and shakeout in the US brewing industry
Walter, L., Edelman, L., & Hatten, K. (2016) · doi:10.1108/jmh-03-2015-0022 · Cited by 4
Research on non-market actions: A commentary essay
Wang, C.-J. (2010) · doi:10.1016/j.jbusres.2009.09.020 · Cited by 4
Equilibria in a Hotelling Model: First-Mover Advantage?
Rajan, U., & Sinha, A. (2009) · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1158605 · Cited by 4
“Similar suggestions about the benefit (in terms of profit, market share, or both) of entering first and locating near the center appear in Boulding and Christen (2003), Lieberman and Montgomery (1988), Lilien et al.”
InfluentialThe Role of Consumers in Innovation Processes in Markets
Saam, N. (2005) · Rationality and Society · doi:10.1177/1043463105055465 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
“Bohlmann et al. (2002) analyze consumer valuations of product attributes, such as variety and quality, in order to find the conditions under which technological pioneers are more likely or less likely to have an advantage.”
BackgroundSmart Timing for Smart Products? Complementor Multihoming in Nascent Platform Markets
Aydin Ozden, S., Suarez, F. F., Libaers, D., & Bart, Y. (2026) · Journal of Product Innovation Management · doi:10.1111/jpim.70005 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Sarin, S., Im, S.-B., Benedetto, A. D., Sego, T., & Chitturi, R. (2025) · Academy of Marketing Science Review · doi:10.1007/s13162-025-00327-8 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
“Radicalness of Innovation: The level of discontinu - ity that the innovation represents in the target market, as reflected by the radicalness of the innovation (e.g., Kerin et al., 1992 ; Bohlmann et al., 2002).”
Competing platform owners' entry and an OEM's cooperation response
Wu, X., Zha, Y., & Liang, L. (2024) · International Transactions in Operational Research · doi:10.1111/itor.13443 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
- Authors
- Bohlmann, J. D., Golder, P. N., & Mitra, D.
- Affiliations
- Michigan State University (US)
- New York University (US)
- University of Florida (US)
- Venue
- Management Science
- Published
- 2002-09
- Volume
- 48
- Issue
- 9
- Pages
- 1175-1195
- ISSN
- 0025-1909 (ISSN-L)
- 1526-5501
- OpenAlex
- W2113468393
- Cited by
- 180
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 9 · 2024: 9 · 2023: 7 · 2022: 4 · 2021: 6 · 2020: 8 · 2019: 6 · 2018: 10 · 2017: 5 · 2016: 8 · 2015: 6 · 2014: 11 · 2013: 15 · 2012: 11
- FWCI
- 16.27
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Management Science (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Business, Management and Accounting › Marketing › Consumer Market Behavior and Pricing
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Merger and Competition Analysis
- Keywords
- first-mover advantage, market entry order, preemption, heterogeneous consumer preferences, product quality, product variety, consumer valuation, market share, game-theoretic model
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