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Cited by 204Plant responses to elevated CO2Climate change impacts on agricultureAgriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact

Estimated Effects of Future Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations on Protein Intake and the Risk of Protein Deficiency by Country and Region

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Medek, Danielle E., Schwartz, Joel, Myers, Samuel S.·2017·Environmental Health Perspectives
DOI 10.1289/ehp41PMC PMC5783645
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Abstract

Background: Crops grown under elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations (eCO2) contain less protein. Crops particularly affected include rice and wheat, which are primary sources of dietary protein for many countries. Objectives: We aimed to estimate global and country-specific risks of protein deficiency attributable to anthropogenic CO2 emissions by 2050. Methods: To model per capita protein intake in countries around the world under eCO2, we first established the effect size of eCO2 on the protein concentration of edible portions of crops by performing a meta-analysis of published literature. We then estimated per-country protein intake under current and anticipated future eCO2 using global food balance sheets (FBS). We modeled protein intake distributions within countries using Gini coefficients, and we estimated those at risk of deficiency from estimated average protein requirements (EAR) weighted by population age structure. Results: Under eCO2, rice, wheat, barley, and potato protein contents decreased by 7.6%, 7.8%, 14.1%, and 6.4%, respectively. Consequently, 18 countries may lose >5% of their dietary protein, including India (5.3%). By 2050, assuming today’s diets and levels of income inequality, an additional 1.6% or 148.4 million of the world’s population may be placed at risk of protein deficiency because of eCO2. In India, an additional 53 million people may become at risk. Conclusions: Anthropogenic CO2 emissions threaten the adequacy of protein intake worldwide. Elevated atmospheric CO2 may widen the disparity in protein intake within countries, with plant-based diets being the most vulnerable. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP41

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Authors
Medek, D. E., Schwartz, J., & Myers, S. S.
Affiliations
Harvard University (US)
Corresponding author
Medek, Danielle E.
ORCID
Venue
Environmental Health Perspectives
Publisher
American Chemical Society (ACS)
Published
2017-08-16
Volume
125
Issue
8
Pages
087002-087002
ISSN
  • 0091-6765 (ISSN-L)
  • 1552-9924
DOI
10.1289/ehp41
PMC
PMC5783645
OpenAlex
W2750712839
Cited by
204
References
46
Citations by year
2026: 16 · 2025: 24 · 2024: 32 · 2023: 21 · 2022: 31 · 2021: 25 · 2020: 16 · 2019: 19 · 2018: 17 · 2017: 3
FWCI
14.79
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
public-domain
Locations
  • Environmental Health Perspectives (publishedVersion, public-domain)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • Digital Access to Scholarship at Harvard (DASH) (Harvard University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Funders
  • Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
  • Harvard University
  • Winslow Foundation
  • Center for the Environment, Harvard University
Topics
  • Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Plant Science › Plant responses to elevated CO2
  • Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics › Climate change impacts on agriculture
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact
Keywords
elevated CO2, protein deficiency, protein intake, rice, wheat, barley, potato, food balance sheets, income inequality, Gini coefficient, estimated average requirement, plant-based diet, anthropogenic CO2 emissions, climate change impacts on food security, India
MeSH terms
Air Pollution, Atmosphere, Carbon Dioxide, Diet, Humans, India, Protein Deficiency, Crops, Agricultural, Risk Assessment

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