Fertility, Employment, and Child-Care Costs
Open accessAbstract
A sample of labor-market and birth histories is used to estimate the effects of child-care costs on employment and fertility decisions. A reduced-form empirical analysis is performed, which is based on hazard functions for transitions among various fertility–employment states. Higher child-care costs result in a lower birth rate for nonemployed women but not for employed women. Higher child-care costs also lead to an increase in the rate of leaving employment and a reduction in the rate of entering employment. The results suggest that potential behavioral effects of child-care subsidies could be significant and should be taken into account when alternative child-care policies are being debated.
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A greater role played by governments in childcare may lead to higher fertility rates by lowering the care burden on parents.
“A greater role played by governments may lead to higher fertility rates by lowering the care burden on parents (Blau and Robins 1989).”
From Division of domestic labour and lowest-low fertility in South Korea (2017) · cites this paper as Blau and Robins 1989
The Conclusions report that higher child-care costs lower birth rates for nonemployed women, but not employed women, and suggest that child-care subsidies could have significant behavioral effects. This supports the possibility that government subsidies could raise fertility by reducing costs, but not an unqualified increase in fertility rates or a reduction in the broader care burden on parents. (LLM, conf=0.85)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredChildcare tax credits have no impact, but household expenditure has some negative influence on fertility.
“Blau and Robins (1989) find no impact of childcare tax credits, but some negative influence of household expenditure.”
From Division of domestic labour and lowest-low fertility in South Korea (2017) · cites this paper as Blau and Robins 1989
The Economic and Demographic Determinants of Hazard Rates section (page unavailable) reports no statistically significant association between potential child-care tax credits and births, but that does not establish that the credits have no impact. It also finds that higher average child-care costs—not household expenditure generally—are associated with fewer births among nonemployed women. The Conclusions (page unavailable) say this negative birth-rate finding does not extend to employed women. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
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Mun, E., & Brinton, M. C. (2016) · Research in Social Stratification and Mobility · doi:10.1016/j.rssm.2016.03.004 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Work-family policy and female entrepreneurship: Evidence from China's subsidized child care program
Wang, Q., & Lin, M. (2018) · China Economic Review · doi:10.1016/j.chieco.2018.11.008 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
- Authors
- Blau, D. M., & Robins, P. K.
- Affiliations
- University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (US)
- University of Miami (US)
- ORCID
- Blau, David M.
- Venue
- Demography
- Publisher
- Duke University Press
- Published
- 1989-05-01
- Volume
- 26
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 287-299
- ISSN
- 0070-3370 (ISSN-L)
- 1533-7790
- OpenAlex
- W2065831549
- Cited by
- 261
- References
- 28
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 8 · 2023: 7 · 2022: 7 · 2021: 7 · 2020: 2 · 2019: 3 · 2018: 4 · 2017: 6 · 2016: 11 · 2015: 7 · 2014: 7 · 2013: 9 · 2012: 7
- FWCI
- 20.42
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Demography (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- University of Wisconsin-Madison
- University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
- National Institute of Child Health and Human Development
- Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (IR01 HD20254-01)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Gender Studies › Gender, Labor, and Family Dynamics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Work-Family Balance Challenges
- Social Sciences › Demography › Family Dynamics and Relationships
- Keywords
- childcare costs, reproductive decision-making, employment decisions, child care subsidies, labor force participation, birth rate, hazard function, childcare policy
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Child Care, Child, Preschool, Employment, Female, Fertility, Humans, United States, Women, Working
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