The DOI matches its Crossref record; 46 of the 47 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
The European Trust Crisis and the Rise of Populism
Open accessAbstract
We study the implications of the Great Recession for voting for antiestablishment parties, as well as for general trust and political attitudes, using regional data across Europe. We find a strong relationship between increases in unemployment and voting for nonmainstream parties, especially populist ones. Moreover, unemployment increases in tandem with declining trust toward national and European political institutions, though we find only weak or no effects of unemployment on interpersonal trust. The correlation between unemployment and attitudes toward immigrants is muted, especially for their cultural impact. To explore causality, we extract the component of increases in unemployment explained by the precrisis structure of the economy, in particular the share of construction in regional value added, which is strongly related both to the buildup preceding and the bursting of the crisis. Our results imply that crisis-driven economic insecurity is a substantial determinant of populism and political distrust.
Overview
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
In the citing paper
“Today, French and German regions more exposed to trade with low-wage countries have seen larger increases in vote shares for the far right (Dippel et al. 2017; Malgouyres 2017), British regions more exposed to trade with China voted more strongly in favor of Brexit (Colantone and Stanig 2018a), and EU regions more exposed to the Great Recession have seen a greater rise in voting for anti-establish”
From Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure (2020) · cites this paper as Algan et al. 2017
In the citing paper
“Because right-wing populist movements tend to arise during times of economic hardship (Hutchings and Valentino 2004; Inglehart and Norris 2016; Algan et al. 2017), a related explanation for the co-occurrence of heightened animus toward both foreign trading partners and foreign-born individuals stems from political opportunism.”
From Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure (2020) · cites this paper as Algan et al. 2017
Citations
Cites
1 retracted
Retracted: Growing up in a Recession
Giuliano, P., & Spilimbergo, A. (2013) · The Review of Economic Studies · doi:10.1093/restud/rdt040 · Cited by 480
RetractedInstrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments
Staiger, D., & Stock, J. (1994) · doi:10.3386/t0151 · Cited by 5,302 · cited 1×
“The critical values of the Stock and Yogo (2005) weak instrument test statistic are 16.38 and 8.96, respectively, for the 10 and 15 percent levels (see also Staiger and Stock 1997).”
BackgroundInfluentialHappiness: Lessons from a New Science
Cooper, R. N., & Layard, R. (2005) · Foreign Affairs · doi:10.2307/20031793 · Cited by 4,081
Populism: A Very Short Introduction
Mudde, C., & Rovira Kaltwasser, C. (2017) · doi:10.1093/actrade/9780190234874.001.0001 · Cited by 3,659
The interaction of TIGIT with PVR and PVRL2 inhibits human NK cell cytotoxicity
Stanietsky, N., Simic, H., Arapovic, J., Toporik, A., Levy, O., Novik, A., Levine, Z., Beiman, M., Dassa, L., Achdout, H., et al. (2009) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0903474106 · Cited by 3,524
The Economic Consequences of Legal Origins
Porta, R. L., Lopez-de-Silanes, F., & Shleifer, A. (2008) · Journal of Economic Literature · doi:10.1257/jel.46.2.285 · Cited by 3,220
Relative Income, Happiness, and Utility: An Explanation for the Easterlin Paradox and Other Puzzles
Clark, A. E., Frijters, P., & Shields, M. A. (2008) · Journal of Economic Literature · doi:10.1257/jel.46.1.95 · Cited by 3,159
The Constitution of LibertyPreprint
von Hayek, F. A. (1960) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · Cited by 2,635
Culture and Institutions: Economic Development in the Regions of Europe
Tabellini, G. (2010) · Journal of the European Economic Association · doi:10.1111/j.1542-4774.2010.tb00537.x · Cited by 2,285
The Moral Foundations of TrustPreprint
Uslaner, E. M. (2005) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.824504 · Cited by 2,069
Flagged first, then by citations
1 of the 47 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Items 601–686 of 686
Snyder, J. M., & Yousaf, H. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5900279
Additional file 2 of Quantifying polarization in online political discourse
Muñoz, P., Bellogín, A., Barba-Rojas, R., & Díez, F. (2024) · Figshare · doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.26729962
Additional file 1 of Quantifying polarization in online political discourse
Muñoz, P., Bellogín, A., Barba-Rojas, R., & Díez, F. (2024) · Figshare · doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.26729959
Demirdag, I., Özatağan, G., & Eraydın, A. (2025) · European Planning Studies · doi:10.1080/09654313.2025.2556713
The Normalization of the Far-Right: When the Salience of Victories MattersPreprint
Belguise, M. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5704244
How substitutable are the classical and radical right?
Fernández-Villaverde, J., & Sanz, C. (2025) · Journal of Public Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105521
Impressionable Years: Economic Trend and Millennials’ Attitudes towards the EU
Baggetta, C., Cerruti, G., & Santagata, M. (2025) · Economia Internazionale / International Economics · doi:10.65644/eiie.078.03.0337
Government performance and support for democracy in Spain
Hawkins, D. G., Gubler, J. R., Beesley, C., Ingles, T., & Chatterley, J. (2025) · Research & Politics · doi:10.1177/20531680251409938
Values of the European Union in the Face of Crises: Protected, Challenged, Modified?
Isokaitė-Valužė, I., & Šinkūnas, H. (2025) · T.M.C. Asser Press eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-94-6265-718-2_4
Prainsack, B. (2026) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198965336.003.0002
Prainsack, B. (2026) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198965336.002.0005
Prainsack, B. (2026) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198965336.003.0001
Prainsack, B. (2026) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198965336.003.0004
Prainsack, B. (2026) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198965336.002.0004
Solidarity in the climate governance
Prainsack, B. (2026) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198965336.003.0003
Prainsack, B. (2026) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198965336.003.0006
Data solidarity in the age of artificial intelligence (AI)
Prainsack, B. (2026) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198965336.003.0005
Economic Insecurity and Demand for Immigration EnforcementPreprint
Felegi, B., Barrera, S., & Rubalcaba, J. A.-A. (2026) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.6015374
Deciphering Social Class Dimensions Through its Values in Contemporary Europe
Gañán, S. A. (2026) · Social Indicators Research · doi:10.1007/s11205-025-03799-0
Set in their ways: explaining market cosmopolitans’ electoral behaviour
Davenport, A. J. M. (2026) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198978848.003.0006
Supply and demand in the market cosmopolitan space
Davenport, A. J. M. (2026) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198978848.003.0003
Davenport, A. J. M. (2026) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198978848.003.0008
Davenport, A. J. M. (2026) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198978848.003.0007
Davenport, A. J. M. (2026) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198978848.002.0005
Davenport, A. J. M. (2026) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198978848.003.0005
Davenport, A. J. M. (2026) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198978848.002.0004
Davenport, A. J. M. (2026) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198978848.003.0009
Davenport, A. J. M. (2026) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198978848.005.0001
Davenport, A. J. M. (2026) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198978848.003.0001
From disadvantage to advantage?
Davenport, A. J. M. (2026) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198978848.003.0002
Davenport, A. J. M. (2026) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198978848.003.0004
Dunedin Voters in the 2020s: Fickle , Cueless and Cynical or Interested , Informed and Discerning?
Hayward, J., Rudd, C., & Venanzetti, C. (2026) · Kōtuitui New Zealand Journal of Social Sciences Online · doi:10.1002/kot2.70008
Assessing Ill‐Being and Economic Stress: Negative Inputs and Civil Society in Europe
Dimaria, C.-H. (2026) · Global Policy · doi:10.1111/1758-5899.70132
Populism and the Skill Content of Globalisation
B, F. D. A., Iandolo, S., Hillel Rapoport, C., Turati, R., & Vannoorenberghe, G. (2026) · The Economic Journal · doi:10.1093/ej/ueag019 · Cited by 1
Airless Democracy: Air Pollution and Voter Turnout
Rosello, G., Reatini, M. A., Pinto, G., & Cattani, G. (2026) · doi:10.53330/sjeh1088
Fernandez-Urbano, R. (2026) · Social Indicators Research · doi:10.1007/s11205-025-03794-5
Better politicians, fewer deaths? Local resilience in overcoming the pandemic crisis in Italy
Fontana, S., Guccio, C., Pignataro, G., & Vidoli, F. (2026) · Social Science & Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2026.119198
Trump digs votes: the role of Trump’s coal campaign in the 2016 presidential election
Steinbrunner, P. R., Giacomo, M. D., & Nagl, W. (2026) · The Annals of Regional Science · doi:10.1007/s00168-025-01447-6
Bottasso, A., Cerruti, G., Conti, M., & Santagata, M. (2026) · Journal of Population Economics · doi:10.1007/s00148-026-01155-1
Gonnot, J. (2020) · doi:10.70675/04d7e25cz7ca1z4216zaf5fzd740f84ed14c
Essays on the determinants of wage inequality
Cêtre, S. (2020) · theses.fr (ABES) · doi:10.70675/665229d7z8999z450fz8a7cz625c8e4d4041
Essays in Political Economy of Media and Social Media
Madinier, E. (2023) · theses.fr (ABES) · doi:10.70675/d497cdd3z3106z4f9fz93baz0ca5a77b404e
The Determinants of acceptability of environmental policies
Ibarra, S. I. (2024) · theses.fr (ABES) · doi:10.70675/2a470fe9zda83z4311za398z8889002c1795
Cotofan, M., Kuralbayeva, K., & Matakos, K. (2026) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.6543708
Roccato, M., & Russo, S. (2026) · Journal of Elections Public Opinion and Parties · doi:10.1080/17457289.2026.2652360
The political economy of media production and consumption in France
Hengel, M. (2023) · theses.fr (ABES) · doi:10.70675/5edf0910z1d6bz4a5cz9693zc2883ec214d9
A cultural theory of support for populism: fatalism and polyrational governance
Verweij, M. (2026) · Frontiers in Political Science · doi:10.3389/fpos.2026.1781561
Nasi, F. (2026) · European Journal of Cultural Studies · doi:10.1177/13675494261432712
Digging Up Trenches: Populism and Selective Mobility Across Italian MunicipalitiesPreprint
Docquier, F., Iandolo, S., Morelli, M., & Turati, R. (2026) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.6634507
The Opioid Epidemic and Presidential Elections
Siegal, N. (2026) · American Journal of Health Economics · doi:10.1086/742007
Economic shocks and compliance with COVID-19 public health orders
Solon, D. (2026) · International Journal of Health Economics and Management · doi:10.1007/s10754-026-09415-z
The Political Implications of Reference-Dependent Preferences
Panunzi, F., Pavoni, N., & Tabellini, G. (2026) · Journal of the European Economic Association · doi:10.1093/jeea/jvag028
Approaches to the Study of Populism: Between Ideology and Communicative Style
Lucchesi, D. (2026) · Postdisciplinary studies in discourse · doi:10.1007/978-3-032-21265-8_4
Yang, J. (2026) · Rationality and Society · doi:10.1177/10434631261455690
From Weimar to Today: Mapping Populism Across German ParliamentsPreprint
Guenther, L., & Behler, P. C. (2026) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.6865960
Schwaiger, V. (2026) · European Journal of Political Research · doi:10.1017/s1475676526101431
Priced Out and Locked Out: Housing Pressure and Anti-Establishment VotingPreprint
Koziol, T. (2026) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.6844198
Lan, X., & Zhu, H. (2026) · Political Behavior · doi:10.1007/s11109-026-10176-1
Eib, C., & Witte, H. D. (2026) · Zeitschrift für Arbeits- und Organisationspsychologie A&O · doi:10.1026/0932-4089/a000484
Identity voting and social closure: Evidence from Italian municipalities
Salha, O. B., & Buonanno, P. (2026) · European Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2026.102884
Credit Shocks and PopulismPreprint
Pizzigolotto, A., & Fraccaroli, N. (2026) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.6755141
Comparing institutional trust: epistemological fallacies and how to avoid them
Nielsen, R. S. H. (2026) · International Journal of Social Research Methodology · doi:10.1080/13645579.2026.2709888
The Political Consequences of Energy Price Shocks: Evidence from BerlinPreprint
Freitag, N. (2026) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.7165539
The Recent Rise of Populism and European Integration
Guriev, S. M. (2026) · Studies in economic transition · doi:10.1007/978-3-032-20186-7_2
Self-citation‘Ask not what your country can do for you’: Legacies of the great recession and the ‘Trust crisis’
Aghajanian, A., Caeiro, R. M., Egger, E., Justino, P., & Bue, M. C. L. (2026) · European Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2026.102894
Keeping Climate Populism in Check: A New Perspective on Public Acceptability of Net-Zero PoliciesPreprint
Armbruster, T., Dilger, E., Konc, T., & Mattauch, L. (2026) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.7200581
Voting for populism? How ‘populist’ labels affect support for candidates
Bichay, N. (2026) · European Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s1755773926100678
Thepaut, L. D., Goes, K., & Werthschulte, M. (2026) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.7269014
Porat, I., & Cohen‐Eliya, M. (2026) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009331920.003
Porat, I., & Cohen‐Eliya, M. (2026) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009331920.002
Partisan conflict and economic policy uncertainty: insights from a time-varying causality approach
Antonakakis, N., Tiruneh, M. W., Gabauer, D., Schubert, S. R., & Παπαδοπούλου-Κελίδου, Λ. (2026) · Public Choice · doi:10.1007/s11127-026-01451-0
Poverty, State-Dependent Risk Preferences, and the Case for Mutual-Advantage RedistributionPreprint
Delmotte, C., & Dold, M. (2026) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.7620384
The Naturalization of the Pejorative Conception: Populism Scholarship in the Millennium
Charles, B. (2026) · Palgrave studies in populisms · doi:10.1007/978-981-92-1868-4_6
Economic Insecurity and Demand for Immigration EnforcementPreprint
Barrera, S., Felegi, B., & Rubalcaba, J. A.-A. (2026) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.7467102
Claes, N., Marot, M., García‐Sánchez, E., Kuppens, T., Manstead, A. S. R., Spruyt, B., Normand, A., & Darnon, C. (2026) · Group Processes & Intergroup Relations · doi:10.1177/13684302261476525
Populism and Heterogeneous Effects: The Causal Mechanisms Identification Problem
Woods, D. (2026) · Chinese Political Science Review · doi:10.1007/s41111-026-00353-2
Poor but sovereign: economic insecurity, nostalgia, and geopolitical alignment in Slovakia
Schachtschneider, K., & Comelli, M. (2026) · Journal of Contemporary European Studies · doi:10.1080/14782804.2026.2740486
Entrepreneurship and disruptive technologies in the multidimensional well-being of society 5.0
Romero-Medina, S. G. (2026) · International Entrepreneurship and Management Journal · doi:10.1007/s11365-026-01262-1
Branilović, S., & Rutar, T. (2026) · Comparative European Politics · doi:10.1057/s41295-026-00503-5
Absorbing technocracy: party competition and ideological polarisation in times of crisis
Amat, F., & Mayo, M. P. (2026) · West European Politics · doi:10.1080/01402382.2026.2733583
Metadata
- Authors
- Algan, Y., Guriev, S., Papaioannou, E., & Passari, E.
- Venue
- Brookings Papers on Economic Activity
- Publisher
- Project MUSE
- Published
- 2017
- Volume
- 2017
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 309-400
- ISSN
- 0007-2303 (ISSN-L)
- 1533-4465
- OpenAlex
- W2782483882
- Cited by
- 693
- References
- 47
- Citations by year
- 2026: 79 · 2025: 76 · 2024: 81 · 2023: 87 · 2022: 84 · 2021: 108 · 2020: 106 · 2019: 43 · 2018: 24 · 2017: 2
- FWCI
- 235.36
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- Licence
- other-oa
- Locations
- Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (publishedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- SPIRE (Sciences Po) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Populism, Right-Wing Movements
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Electoral Systems and Political Participation
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Social Policy and Reform Studies
- Keywords
- Great Recession, populism, anti-establishment parties, unemployment, trust in political institutions, interpersonal trust, attitudes toward immigrants, economic insecurity, regional value added, political attitudes
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review